BEST OF Programming Already Adding To Bottom Line
This morning I put my investigative cap on and called customer service to not only add the new programming, but to ask a few additional questions as a “curious consumer” so that I could write about my experience.
Tyler – How is the response to BEST OF? Are you getting a lot of calls?
Customer Rep – Actually yes, we are getting a great response so far. I’m surprised by the number of calls adding the service. Did you want to add it month to month or pay for a full year?
Tyler – Well, how much will the service be if I do a full year?
Customer Rep – Your annual plan just lapsed a couple of weeks ago, so you are on a monthly plan right now. It would come to $186.89 if you renewed for one year with the BEST OF. This gives you 1 month free.
Tyler – I see, if I pay month to month it would come out to $203.88 for a year. Do a lot of people take advantage of the annual plan?
Customer Rep – Not everyone, but many do. You can break it up into two payments, so that makes it a bit easier for people.
Tyler Okay. Give me the full year, and break it up into two payments.
Customer Rep – Great, you have a small credit on your account, so we will apply that first. The balance will then be $177.67. Half will go onto your account now, and the other half next month. Do you want to use the credit card we have on file?
Tyler That would be fine
Customer Rep Great, you are all set. You have a Stiletto 100. When you turn it on you should see a channel update. After the update completes, power the unit off and on again, and you should be all set. If you have any problems you can always call. Can I help you with anything else, or do you want any of the other radios on your account upgraded?
Tyler – No Thanks
The conversation gave me a good feeling about what is happening with the BEST OF programming. Seeing that the passionate satellite radio subscribers are reacting well to the initiative is great news. Likely, many people are adding right to their existing plan, and therefore paying in advance. This brings cash into the door. If the reaction is substantial, it could mean millions of additional cash on hand for Sirius XM Radio as they go into Q4. Such cash would not only bolster the companies position, but give them some latitude in marketing expenses to promote not only the BEST OF, but A-La-Carte as well.
With all of the bad news of late, this little conversation gave me a bit of faith in knowing that the wheels of satellite radio are still turning, and that while the economy has many people concerned, they are still opening up their wallets to get the additional programming being offered.
In many ways, Sirius XM announcements lately have fallen victim to the overall bad news of the economy. We now have the potential of seeing the bailout package approved before the weekend, and Sirius XM to have positive things to say on October 6th. For once, the timing seems to work in the favor of satellite radio.
Position – Long SIRI
Friggin, Please sell sell sell! I love this site but cant listen to your crying anymore!
Not crying. Just trying to keep my sanity by having some fun.
And believe me…you’ll KNOW when I sell. 🙂
At least the Bill just passed the House. Lets see if this helps Sirius…let alone the country. 🙂
friggin – I’m sorry to say but this is just a bandaid that will help to allow our foreign partners to bail out of their investments in the u.s. This bill doesn’t address the core underlying problems.
I’m afraid to but back into Sirius even at .60 right now.
Sorry to deviate from the stock/bailout discussion but I have a couple of questions:
First, has anyone else had the misfortune of buying Sirius radios, right around the time that Stern came on, that cannot be reprogrammed to get the Best of XM? Both of my radios, a stand-alone and a “Sirius ready” car stereo come up as “Not Available” for this option. I thought getting XM was going to be avaiable for ALL radios.
Second, will they be coming out with a Sirius radio that can receive ALL Sirius and XM channels? I really don’t care about the redundancy. It just means more choices, especially for music. I agree with Dan C in that XM with Best of Sirius add-on is the better deal. I just want to add a fourth radio to my Sirius account, that has all of XM, to get the reduced price. (Not being greedy, just thrifty). 🙂
“BEST OF” PROMO
I was listening to “Mad Dog” a little while ago and mentioned that Best Of Channels are now available on Sirius & XM.
Keysmark
Correction on my Mad Dog Comment Above.
It should read: Mad Dog mentioned the “Best Of” Channels are now available.
Keysmark
We’ll be at .50 soon.
YAY! The bill past. Uh-oh. Markets reaction? DOWN.
Remember there was a time before the merger when we were at $5 and thought we were going to double to $10?
Then we were at $3 and the DOJ approved and we thought we’d DOUBLE to $5(EVEN CRAMER SAID SO!) Lol.
Then we were at $2 and we thought we’d double to $4.
THEN THE MERGER FINALLY PASSED and we dropped to $1.50 and we thought we’d DOUBLE to $3.
NOW….hard to believe….we are in the 50 cent range and a DOUBLE would bring us to a BUCK.
Our “BREAK EVEN” price after averaging down has been a FRIGGIN MOVING TARGET.
Some of us can’t afford to average down any more. Only the big boys can do that.
Only those who are getting in now for the first time will benefit.
The big boys have successfully squeezed us average investors to the breaking point. How can we ever expect to win?
My break even price would require the stock to more than QUADRUPLE.
Its pretty sad.
Maybe some news on Monday regarding the Best of traction, subs ?
sxminvestor….I am so sick to my stomach right now and so devoid of hope that I can’t even muster the confidence to hope for ANY news on Monday.
I have fucked up so badly with this stock, that I have fallen into the deepest of depressions.
Heavy shit I know. I could never take my life….but I have been RUINED because of my gamble with this stock. If I had stayed in ANY of my other stocks I would have DOUBLED and DOUBLED my investment and have been chilling on a beach in Brazil right now surfing.
Instead I have lost it all. I have nothing. ANd I have no one to blame but myself.
Friggen. Wow. Your very honest and your words are genuine and true. We appear heading towards another 52 week low. This bill is not going to save us, there will be more bills ahead. Until the bill actually gives the big banks liquidity, we will not get up again. This bill just took care of the good ol boy network.
With regards to this price. I’m telling you that it feels good to start a new game. Buy before todays close. Sell at the open Monday. This POS opens high closes low. There will be no news on the debt for a while in my opinion. So buy a thousand before close. Cost the same as two nights hotel room. That’s how pathetic it’s gotten and then sell that amount first thing Monday. You say I’m nuts, try it. It’s better than checking your average price from before. Take care bro.
Yeah. I’m havin a bad day Socal. And this is a MUCH safer place to be honest than the insanity that is the “Yahoo board”. No friends there, thats for sure.
Good luck with your trade on Monday bro. I wish I had the free cash to do that, but I’d have to sell a chunk of my Sirius at a HUGE loss to do that. So I’m trapped.
To be honest, if I was going to make a trade in this market, it’d be in some of the other stocks that I’ve been watching. Like ESLR, EFTC, LVLT, YGE, and many others that are SO predictable.
Hence my frustration factor is at an all time high today.
I’m really a mellow dude most of the time. Maybe I’ll go to a Buddhist retreat this weekend to help me let go of my attachment to outcome.
Peace out.
friggin – We purchased paper representing ownership in a company. We are last in line if the company BK’s. I was a broker at one time in my life and selling paper to people sucks because it’s just paper. That’s why I left the business during the last bubble explosion. People’s memories are obviously short. The idea that it is anything more than paper is foolish.
The fun part about owning stock(paper) is that sometimes you can find someone else who will pay you more than you paid for your ‘paper’. That makes investors basically gamblers. I’m not ashamed of being an investor (gambler) because it’s in my blood and I experience emotions (good and bad) that I don’t experience in many other things.
I’ve invested in comapanies that generated revenue and had a solid business models and I’ve invested in companies that had nothing more than a great idea with great potential.
I’ve made money and lost money in all of them.
If investing was a sure thing everyone would be doing it and none of this would be going on. But it is.
The only positive thing I can say about being invested in SiriusXM is this – it has a solid business model, it has a great product, it has unlimited future potential, it has buyout potential and best of all it has great management.
We can talk crap all we want about Mel, and believe me some is justified, but the fact of the matter is that he has a good track record and my money is still on him.
I’m down big in this stock and I’m ashamed I held this long as well. I broke all of my trading/investing rules with this stock because I love the product that much. But it doesn’t change the fact that the credit markets suck, consumer spending will continue to dwindle hurting companies like SiriusXM because of disposable income just not being there and the result will be lower stock prices. The only thing we can do is continue to get our cost basis as low as possible and wait (unless you want to trade it like Socal and SXMI are suggesting which works but it is risky.)
Anyways, I know that I’m spouting off about things you already know but just wanted to throw out my 2 cents (which is actually only worth 1 cent now.) Peace.
To give alittle background on myself…I know my investing style is what some would call “risky” lol. But I’m still fairly young(ish). I’m an artist and a surfer. I got into investing with Apple 6 years ago and made a nice profit. It funded a trip surfing around the world and the ability to focus on my art. And I Have been hooked ever since…using investing as a means to fund my lifestyle.
And so far I’ve been VERY successful at it.
It wasn’t until I was stuck in the Amazon 2 years ago and not watching my investment in Sirius where I had moved my funds…that things started going down hill.
And I bought into the hype of the “merger” and kept throwing more money into it. Before I knew it, I was trapped and tapped.
And my usual laid back surfer attitude was being threatened.
TOTAL BUMMER.
LOL.
Imagine Jeff Spicoli punching out Mr. Hand and you’ll have an idea of the level of stress this has put me under.
I’ll get that “vibe” back. And I have learned alot.
I just hate the feeling of being stuck. Like a caged animal…it goes against my nature…and I just want out.
The waves are calling….
So if you are now 50/50 on your great winners to great losers you are doing better than many. Many people get wiped hard in the stock market. They used to say that if you can support yourself as a trader for 2 years without going broke then you can support yourself the rest of your life trading. I don’t think this is true any longer. I hear of traders on the floor that had been successful for years recently getting wiped out and that doesn’t even account for the hedge funds that have imploded, are imploding and will implode. This will get much ugglier before it gets better unfortunately.
Friggin…
I knew if I read your posts long enough the truth would eventually come out. You are really really pissed because you wanted another round the world surfing trip!!
All I can say is we all just have to Hang in there, not much choice anyway.
SXM..
I have had the same thought if SiriusXM goes BK. WTF would I do with that Sirius receiver on my dash? I have a life time sub on it, but I don’t think I could take looking at it everday.
Let’s hope that does not happen.
I see Motley Fool is talking reverse split for Sirius XM.The Motley Fool and the Street.com would sell their mothers to get a hit on their web pages.
Ok it’s Friday, I just opened a cold draft and I have a car show this weekend.I am going to have fun and forget about Sirius…
Have a great weekend everyone
vaporgold
I hear you GIS. I like your use of the word “wipe out”. Being a surfer I know that term all too well. For a surfer to say they never wipe out is a dangerous attitude, and more often then not, they’ll wipe out in the worst way and get SERIOUSLY injured.
Same with trading.
I wouldn’t even call myself a trader. Certainly not a day trader. Although I have traded. I’m something of a short term investor. Lol. Have you ever read a book called “The DAO Jones Average?” Dao as in Daoism. Kind of a book about investing for left brain creative types.
I study a stock and a sector. I watch the market, and like a wave, I try to “feel” it. Become one with it.
I’ve ridden some great waves, and made some great trades.
But waves are unpredictable, and if you get too cocky and lose your focus…you will wipe out for sure.
Other times the Waves are just too Choppy to even ride…and it’s best to just walk away.
For whatever reason, I lost focus with Sirius. I should have walked away. I wiped out and instead of getting the message, I let my ego take over and kept trying to ride it.
As a result I am where I am now.
If I had taken that same attitude on the surf, I’d be in a hospital or worse.
The waves will always be there. I could have walked away and surfed another day.
I am mostly mad at myself for letting my ego take control.
I should have respected the wave.
Anyway…I’ll recover. But not being able to get my money out is like someone locked my board up or told me the ocean is closed. It’s very frustrating.
I’m hoping Sirius can recover….but “hope” is such a passive word. Bordering on helplessness and victimhood, and I don’t like the way it feels.
So I am just trying to accept this reality as painful as it may be to deal with right now in these hard times…and move on.
Work is kinda slow….and I’m itching to save up more cash-ola to get out of this hole so I can travel again.
Soon.
Peace.
GIS great line on the (2) cents. More like worth one peso now.
Friggen. Foolish, ashamed, ego. Me I’m embarrassed. They all apply. I’m working in a very affluent area right now. And I’m hearing 2 to 3 more months of pain. Government’s gotta invest in preferred stock of the banks. Then things get going again. For you money techs, thats the way I am being told. Me I’m hoping to be able to simply get back out past the whitewater someday. Right now I’m completely stuck on a sandbar with a 500 yard low tide in front of me. Later.
It would make sense that Sirius at least puts out a press release Monday on the cross-over programming, so maybe this will peak some interest in the stock.
Please Mel, say something…but only if it is positive.
In the vast scheme of whats happening in the market, it doesn’t seem important, but I also hope that Mel gets alittle face time on CNBC Monday to announce the Best Of. Wether or not refinancing has been nailed down yet, I think it’d be a good thing if Mel admist all this market chaos proudly unveils the “Best Of”. It’d show confidence in the face of rampant fear.
Who knows he might have something to say about refinancing. If not, at least he could put a positive spin on the Bail Out bill being passed thus reassuring that talks are under way.
I dunno anymore.
According to the news, there was a MASSIVE sell off by the Hedge Funds to pay out clients who wanted their cash.
I expect more of that next week?
How much that will effect Sirius is hard to figure. Who would want to cash out while we are so low? Um….don’t answer that.
I guess we’ll find out soon enuff.
At this point and the price Sirius is at, It MAY not get affected by a market selloff like the blue chips.
It should trade on it’s own news and how the credit markets will affect the loan they may need in 1st/2nd Q.
I don’t think Sirius is going backwards in revenue as bad as car sales have been.
Yes, 3rd Q balance sheet will be an atrocity and car sales, etc suck, but could it just be the reason we are already at .60 cents level.
Baked in probably and any unexpected traction like up front cash flow from the Best of & Ala Cart prepays could get this equity moving in the right direction.
Mel has both companies at his full disposal now and I think he will find another 100 million to cut, especially in slower times.
Time to hunker down on payroll as well, cut salaries & replace with lower paid people who will take the job because they need one bad. Sad to say, but it’s the state of the economy and if Mel is really cut-throat, he could find alot more than he thought.
I don’t see bankruptcy unless nobody could buy a car for 6 months, getting the loans should ease over coming weeks.
Did you see the latest filing and what Sirius just hired those 2 people at – if they can pay them, they are not afraid of what is coming in my opinion.
Let’s hope for a little reprieve on Monday from all this selling.
I pulled this positive piece from an article realting to the Canadian Sirius & XM & you’ll see there seems to be pent up demand waiting for the merger to go through:
Digital Forum members, who have been waiting for the U.S. merger of the two satellite radio companies to be completed and programming details to be announced, have expressed anger that neither Canadian satellite radio company will be offering similar programming packages in Canada.
One Digital Forum member, “rock on”, exemplified the general consensus of many readers when he said “I have been waiting for “a la carte” programming to subscribe to Sirius. I will not wait for the Canadian service to offer it… For me it will be a US sub!”
The number of Canadians who subscribe to U.S. satellite radio services is unknown; however, estimates in the past have placed the number in the hundreds of thousands.
This week’s announcement by Sirius XM in the United States to offer “Best of” programming and “ala carte” programming is certain to drive those numbers even higher.
Maybe they could do a commercial where they have a voice over saying “In these harsh economic times, Sirius Xm radio is going to be the first Media company to offer a la carte services – meaning YOU pick the stations you want. Nothing more. But for ALOT less.”
All I know about history was that during the Great Depression or other hard economic times people flocked to the movies and other forms of media escapism.
I think Sirius has what it takes to weather this storm, and provide people with a great form of escapism. Live radio, sports and music without commercials.
It kinda makes me wish I stumbled upon Sirius as an investment NOW when it’s at an undervalued 60 cents than when I originally did at $6.00!!!
Anyway…who here thinks Sirius can break a dollar by November and reach at least back up to $1.50 again?
Any thoughts?
We are all in the right church, wrong row. Start up/growth companies live on potential and optimism… when optimism and greed rule the market, they are valued in one way, in times like these, it is a whole different story. SiriusXM has had plenty of bad timing & bad luck as well as the usual tidal wave of negativity and dought that slams into companies that are getting to close to causing a change to the status quo. One of the problems that youg well funded companies always seem to fall prey to is the idea that you can lose money at an incredible rate as long as there is growth & a good story to back it up. These guys don’t even call it losing money, to them it is a “burn rate”. Mel K will stop the gravey train and cut WHATEVER he needs to to refi and float thru this. XM is a duplicate of siri, and the cutting will will not end until there is a different story to tell. The new story will be that the company turns a profit… bad economy or not, this will arive within the year. Once Mel can work from solid platfornm instead of a pool of quicksand, GS & co will shut the fuck up and future potential will get sexy again. This is the part where the company needs to grind it out, and believe me, Mel has always managed with this idea in mind. Once profitability is in hand, The company will be sold/merged ect. and most of us will have a nice profit; but not before some more hell. Hang in there, this will not go down.
At this point I have no choice but to “Hang in there”.
Can’t sell. Not after a 70% drop in a MONTH.
Man. Just saying that seems surreal.
I’d like to think it’d be IMPOSSIBLE to sink any lower…but I’ve been surprised before. Unfortunately not pleasantly surprised.
I’m an optimist by nature, but I read somewhere that it’s better to be a pessimist…because when things go wrong, then you’re right….and when they turn out right, you’re pleasantly surprised. LOL. I like that.
I’ve got a stupid question. I’ve read that it’ll take 3 years for car manufacturers to install interoperable radios into new vehicles.
But if Mel comes out with interoperable radios before the 9 month goal like he says he will(early next year)….then people can just install them in their cars themselves right?
I know the new car sales are important…but buying a new car WITHOUT an interoperable radio and just installing it yourself will actually make Sirius more money am I correct?
Yes, the current situation sucks and I truly feel the pain that others are feeling. But I have decided to relax because stress will kill-ya. A watched pot never boils, and I think for many it time to walk away and let time begin the healing. I think for many we know the fundmentals are strong and Mels trackrecord is solid. Letting go of the daily bs will free us and send a message loud and clear we wont get beat.
Question. Lets say for arguments sake….ALL of Sirius XM’s debt was erased. Not refinanced. But PAID IN FULL. The 300 mil in converts due in Feb. The 350 mil in debt due in May and the 400 due in Dec 09…..GONE. NO MORE. WIPED OUT.
Would the share price go up?
And what would be the difference if Mel PAYS OFF the Feb converts and manages to refinance the May debt now and leaves the Dec 09 debt for later?
Do you think the share price would go up as much?
Is the debt issue the ONLY thing keeping this stock so low? I mean if Sirius was at $4 BEFORE the merger and XM was in the High Teens….and now they are COMBINED with over 400 Million in synergies….and nearly 20 Million subs….and now the BEST OF….
WHY is it trading at 60 FRIGGIN CENTS?
Is it ONLY the debt?
Debt and the naked short selling. This stock is so manipulated its a joke. The endless buy and sell orders of 100 shares is non stop. I almost want to buy more but I cant seem to pull the trigger on it. If i double my shares at the current price my average would be $1.38. Its tempting but I dont know what to do.
How can you make money on buying and selling 100 shares @ $ 60 when most brokers charge $ 5-10 per transaction, and stock is moving @ $0.0002 !!!!!
Where is the Friggin SEC, FBI, Treseary Department
A suggestion for a Very, Very, Bold Move.
This Thursday, Oct. 9th, 2008, the Short Selling protection for Financial Stocks (including our Beloved Goldman Sachs) is removed by SEC.
A counter-attack of Historic proportions would be this:
Each and Every Shareholder of Sirius Stock SELL ALL SHARES, dropping the price and allowing Goldman and others to meet their “target” price before they can comfortably begin covering their Massive Short and Naked Short Positions. Then, Sirius Shareholders head on over to the GS symbol on their computers and SELL SHORT Goldman Sachs. When Goldy is at $75.00 per share, Cover and buy back your Sirius at $.50. Rinse and repeat.
I would imagine there are more than a few “investors” who are wringing their hands in anticipation of taking a few pounds of flesh from the benefactors of Uncle Paulson’s gift to G.S. not to mention a few large competitors and Sovereign Funds. With no safety net in place, the proprietors of pain on Wall Street may indeed be finally put down.
What a scenario… no more protections from the SEC for G.S. … an “eye-for-an-eye” never sounded so satisfying AND deserving.
I’m Max, and I approve of this message.
Im talking about the big institutions themselves. If your GS are you paying a comission to manipulate the stock? I think not
Friggin…
If all the debt was paid off the stock would soar. ( I don’t know how they would accomplish that)
If he paid off the Feb coverts, re- fi the May debt and addressed the Dec 09 debt in Dec. 09, the stock would also go up. Not as much if all the debt was gone.
Since we are just speculating, I belive if Sirius mages to re- fi the Feb in the next month or two we will see an upward movement in the stock price. Over the one dollar range at least.
The fourth quarter should be cash flow positive as has been the last two 4th quarters.
The difference is if the cost cutting can be fully implemented by the first quarter of 09.
If we can reach cash flow positive in each quarter the stock will take off again.
The penetration rates is holding and growing on all the OEM’s. We don’t know what the car sales will be for 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter of 09. If they match 08 levels we should be fine.
If you add the new programming, if you add the push for new subscriptions on lease cars that are being turned in and sold with new SiriusXM subscriptions because the cars have say radios, it looks very promising. Sirius has a big push to coverts those used car sales into subs.
I think they will add 2 million subs next year.
The only thing I see stopping the stock is the debt re-fi, and none of us want the converts with GS to take place.
We can see the light at the end of the tunnel, but we are in the dark as to the progress that Mel is making on the debt.
So we wait….
imho
vaporgold
My question is this…IS Mel a Billionaire? Someone said he was worth 8 billion? Is this true?
He half joked about paying off the Feb debt himself, saying “I don’t want it to come to that”…which for whatever reason had a negative effect on the stock dropping it from $1.32 to below a buck the very next day.
Why would the prospect of a Billionaire CEO being able to pay off the debt himself in a bad market be construed as a NEGATIVE??? All it speaks of is that the MARKET is bad. And TOTALLY ignores the fact that the CEO could bail out the company!! How many CEOs would do that? Isn’t that a positive?
So why hasn’t Mel made an announcement yet? Between the 400 million in cash Sirius has, the 400 million in combined synergies and 19 million subs and 2.7 BILLION in revenues that Sirius XM has NOW that they DIDN’T have back when they refinanced the debt the last time….PLUS the BILLIONS that Mel has in personal wealth he hinted at using to help pay down the debt…..
WHY THEN hasn’t Mel ANNOUNCED a DEAL? Why has he let FEAR and the shorts bash sirius down to the 50cent range???
Speaking of which…WHY hasn’t Mel been more vocal about getting on the short ban list? It is WELL KNOWN that Sirius has been one of the BIGGEST victims of naked shorting and shorting for YEARS. Add to that fact the government’s CRIMINAL delay of the merger which has crippled Sirius and made it an even BIGGER target for the shorts….MEL DEFINITELY HAS A CASE to get on that short ban list.
And yet NOTHING. Not a word. Where is Mel?
Other NON financial companies have petitioned successfully to get on the list….Sirius is probably the MOST deserving non financial stock to be put on that list.
It boggles my mind.
So…DEBT refinancing AND the short ban list. TWO issues that have yet to be ADDRESSED since the merger, and the TWO main reasons why we are sitting at 58 cents right now!
The BEST of is GREAT….but we need to hear from Mel about this right away. His silence is KILLING the pps AND us.
One thing that could help us is that as bad as new car sales are, they may be forced to drastically reduce to clear out old inventory to setup for new cars coming off assembly & Sirius XM’s deals are the same, although the GM deal sucks.
I do have a concern about churn on subs that may have multiple radios and may opt for a Best of or Ala Cart package and get rid of one sub.
Now here is another theory I have been thinking of:
People all want their own home to spend $ on and redesign, etc, so with the focus coming off homes in the next few years, people cars become that much more important to them. I’m not saying that people will go bonkers buying new cars, but used cars could start to get a big play.
So following on the used car theory, many of these cars already have satellite radio built in and just needs to be turned on. Also non-subscribers who maybe were going to wait to get a subscription because they were going to get a new car, now change their minds and invest in their used car with a plug and play.
Seems to me their is an opportunity for retail to gain some life & I have a big idea for a commercial for owners of used cars who buy a plug and play radio. Here we go:
So some 18 year kid is getting into his parents used hunk of junk and he installs his plug and play for the 1st time and automatically his car transforms, so if the kid turns on the strobe, the car fills with beautiful club going young woman or if he puts on the NFL channel, you have some stars packed in his car with Logos on the outside of his car, maybe Howard Stern & Crew & Bubba pack his car is he turns that channel on & on and on. Something to make the kid feel like his life changes when he drives around town & turns that radio on and when he pulls back up at his parents house, he pulls the radio out and all goes back to normal, but he tucks the radio in his pocket and kind of looks around like this is my little secret weapon.
Most wealthy investors have a long term time horizon for their investments. Take Warren Buffett for example, he didn’t get rich overnight. It took him years to grow his wealth.
What Mel might be doing, and I am just speculating, is getting things into place for the long term growth of the company in order and as a result long term appreciation of the share price and not being overly concerned with the day to day price (which we are all being negatively affected by.) People with money usually have enough money to make it through the tough times.
They say that most of the wealth is really made during bad times (because you’re able to get such great deals on things.) If Mel can buy (just like we can) 2 to 3 times the shares at depressed prices, why not, if you have the money.
You then just continue to stick to your business plan and things will ultimately cycle back up.
Just my opinion, as always.
I wonder another thing and maybe Tyler can answer this.
Will Sirius and XM offer and does it make sense to offer the reduced plans to the 50% that do not convert from fre trials ( part of the all-in-churn) # that Sirius reports and the other 47% XM reports do not convert.
If they convert another 10% of these OEM’s, that would be huge, but if you offer let’s say the 6.99 music only to them, does this cannobilize the 50% that would have converted at 12.95.
It might make more sense to get the volume of subs instead of getting overly concerned with ARPU.
Netflix did it and took a big hit on share price, but then recovered quickly and is much better for them because of the much higher subscription rates/volume.
SXMInvestor,
I love your commercial idea. Great marketing idea to make it hip for younger people. Brilliant idea. They should have done this a long time ago. They need to make sat radio cool. Have some rapper in the car with the kid rapping while he is driving.
I wanted to add to your idea with some of my ideas….
Using your concept, it could extend to every member of the family…..
So the dad gets in the car and he tunes to CNN and Larry King and Wolf Blitzer are sitting in the car with him. He tunes to CNBC and then you see Jim Cramer sitting next to him saying “boooooyah”. Whatever sports channel he turns to has famous athletes in the car with him.
Then the mom gets in the car and and you see Oprah in the seat next to her and Martha weaving a basket in the back seat. Oprah says “Me and Martha are going to hang out with you today – hey Martha, how is that basket coming?
Then the daughter gets in the car and you see the Jonas brothers in the car with her, etc.
You could also have an add for Backseat TV showing kids really bored in the backseat. The Mom turns on Backseat TV and then you see cartoon characters sitting next to the kids keeping them company.
You could also show the family in the car in bad weather and traffic. Then you see a newscaster guy with a microphone telling them what is up ahead and how to avoid it and giving a weather forecast.
These ads would also have subliminal messages in them telling people to buy SIRI stock. The promo ads for the new packages you hear on the radio now should also have backwards messages that say “buy SIRI” when reversed.
One other thing. When the car is driving around, it passes an office window and you see Mel K. shaking hands with banker guys in suits. Above the window you see the sign that says, “Loan Office”. The car then passes the GS office building and you see guys in suits crying in the background……….
Mel made a deal that gave carte blanche to GS and others to short SIRI to drive the SP south. Every day more reets are selling out of their positions. Mel wants the tutes to own the shares. The lower SIRI goes the more reets get scared and sell out. Then the tutes load up. They are also buying and selling to themselves and naked shorting. If we see .50 this week hold on to your hats. Load up. If you liked it at $6, you’ll love it at .50.
Demian,
Some great ideas, but maybe we could leave out Matha weaving the basket – lol !
Actually I was reminded of an XM commercial from Canada that I had seen where some beautiful woman started throwing their panties at him in his drivers seat when they realized or heard his satellite radio.
I would like to see Sirius XM go on a nightclub tour through many of the major cities promoting the music and overall service.
We have to get the service in the hands of Ipod users so they can see what they are missing. Broadcast content is where it is and if you want MP3’s, guess what you can have that also, and satellite internet radio through WIFI.
The new portable products that we will see in the next 3 -6 months from both sirius and XM should help them catch up on the features, size, sleakness & guess what they have what all other products don’t have (satellite tuners)
I’m starting to get excited again when I think of the possibilities here.
There will be a day that Apple comes to ask Mel to put a tuner on their Ipods. Right now they (Apple) think their shit doesn’t stink and they want Sirius to subsidize the cost and get too much of the revenue share. For all who don’t understand why Mel hasn’t cut a deal with Apple, it because he is not ready to get on his knees and blow Jobs or bend over and take one for the team if it’s not in the benefit of the bottom line.
Sorry for the graphic nature of my explanation, but it basically comes down to that. When you are needy, you will get screwed, so they must get in a position of power to negotiate.
Similar to the GS situation and financing – not in a great position as of today, but I have confidence in Mel that he will do what it takes to turn it around.
I’ve got another idea for a commercial…..
Show 2 young men and a group of hot chicks. One of the girls asks if one of the boys can give them a ride home. They both say “I will” at the same time. The girl then asks if they have sat radio. With much excitement all the girls hop in the car with the guy that has sat radio and the car peels out and leaves the other guy in a cloud of dust. The camera zooms out and the announcer says – “If you don’t have Satellite Radio, you are missing out.”
The music in the background that plays as you see the Sirius/XM logo of course has subliminal backwards messages in it that say “buy SIRI stock now” and “give sat radios to everyone this Christmas.”
Another idea for that ad……
The guy that doesn’t have sat radio says, “I didn’t get it because I thought they were going to go bankrupt and go out of business.” – then all of the girls laugh at him and as they are getting into the other guys car one of the girls says – “what a loser!” and makes the L symbol with her fingers on her forehead……..
I’ve got another idea for a Christmas commercial………….
You show a family in front of the Christmas tree and the parents are giving a present to a high school aged girl. The girl opens the present and starts crying and says, “I didn’t want another iPod, I’m sick of all that music I’ve already heard a million times – I wanted a portable satellite radio! Then there is a knock at the door and it’s her girlfriend who says,”Look what I got for Christmas – the new XMP3!” Then you show the girl holding the iPod crying…….
The camera pans out and the announcer says, “Don’t let this nightmare happen at your house this Christmas – give the gift of live content – give the gift of satellite radio”
More great idea Demian, but not sure of putting any thought of teh company going bankrupt mentioned.
These are the kind of AD’s we need.
I think when you take into consideration the amount of $ and debt people were willing to take on for home purchases, then a few hundred bucks to get a radio for the car, home or portable is so, so minimal and people just need to be subjected to it more and more, need the ease of installation to be easier (audio jacks in new cars) and people will see how much of a bargain it is to have all this content for so dam cheap.
Look what Verizon is trying to charge just for music, look what MLB.com charges for a season of just baseball, then you take into account SiriusXM has it all & it’s easy for us to see.
It’s just a timing situation right now on the debt and economy that we need to get past.
good ideas but enough with the commercials please.
The “best of” will at best slightly offset the tremendous churn and lack of new subs you’ll see posted in October. A blood bath will ensue.
This is the same plowboy that called the bottom at around 1.30
Bloodbath ? hasn’t it happenned already or do you expect .25 cents now ?
Bloodbath has already happened……….what hasn’t been priced in at this stock price?
October 5th, 2008 at 1:39 am Demian Says:
Bloodbath has already happened……….what hasn’t been priced in at this stock price?
what hasn’t been priced in? THE POSSIBILITY THAT SIRIUS-XM WILL PULL OUT OF THIS, PAY OR EXTEND THEIR DEBTS COMING DUE NEXT YEAR AND BECOME PROFITABLE….none of those appear to be priced in.