BEST OF Programming Already Adding To Bottom Line
This morning I put my investigative cap on and called customer service to not only add the new programming, but to ask a few additional questions as a “curious consumer” so that I could write about my experience.
Tyler – How is the response to BEST OF? Are you getting a lot of calls?
Customer Rep – Actually yes, we are getting a great response so far. I’m surprised by the number of calls adding the service. Did you want to add it month to month or pay for a full year?
Tyler – Well, how much will the service be if I do a full year?
Customer Rep – Your annual plan just lapsed a couple of weeks ago, so you are on a monthly plan right now. It would come to $186.89 if you renewed for one year with the BEST OF. This gives you 1 month free.
Tyler – I see, if I pay month to month it would come out to $203.88 for a year. Do a lot of people take advantage of the annual plan?
Customer Rep – Not everyone, but many do. You can break it up into two payments, so that makes it a bit easier for people.
Tyler Okay. Give me the full year, and break it up into two payments.
Customer Rep – Great, you have a small credit on your account, so we will apply that first. The balance will then be $177.67. Half will go onto your account now, and the other half next month. Do you want to use the credit card we have on file?
Tyler That would be fine
Customer Rep Great, you are all set. You have a Stiletto 100. When you turn it on you should see a channel update. After the update completes, power the unit off and on again, and you should be all set. If you have any problems you can always call. Can I help you with anything else, or do you want any of the other radios on your account upgraded?
Tyler – No Thanks
The conversation gave me a good feeling about what is happening with the BEST OF programming. Seeing that the passionate satellite radio subscribers are reacting well to the initiative is great news. Likely, many people are adding right to their existing plan, and therefore paying in advance. This brings cash into the door. If the reaction is substantial, it could mean millions of additional cash on hand for Sirius XM Radio as they go into Q4. Such cash would not only bolster the companies position, but give them some latitude in marketing expenses to promote not only the BEST OF, but A-La-Carte as well.
With all of the bad news of late, this little conversation gave me a bit of faith in knowing that the wheels of satellite radio are still turning, and that while the economy has many people concerned, they are still opening up their wallets to get the additional programming being offered.
In many ways, Sirius XM announcements lately have fallen victim to the overall bad news of the economy. We now have the potential of seeing the bailout package approved before the weekend, and Sirius XM to have positive things to say on October 6th. For once, the timing seems to work in the favor of satellite radio.
Position – Long SIRI
I did notice that when you go to add these services online that you wind up paying $ upfront, which should help the cash flow.
It’s a slick move by Sirius on their design.
Tyler, I think the near-term cash impact will be even greater than people realize. Here’s something I posted over on the Yahoo board regarding this:
While I was upgrading my XM basic service to include the “Best of Sirius” service tonight, it occured to me that this new feature will generate much more near-term cash flow than people realize. Here’s why:
When you modify your existing service, the billing process will credit your account for the remaining life of your existing sub and then charge your account for the entire amount of the new sub. The result of this is a “reset” of your existing subscription. Basically, your extending the life of your sub and paying for it up front in addition to the premium you’re paying for the upgrade.
Here’s an example using rounded numbers. You have a standard $12 per month sub for which you paid $144 six months ago. You now want to upgrade at $4 extra per month for the “Best of” package. Assuming you maintain a 1yr sub, the billing process will credit your account for the remaining six months left on your existing sub (6x$12=$72) and then charge you for a full one year upgraded sub (12x$16 = $192). This transaction results in $120 cash to the company, FIVE TIMES the cash they would have received if they just billed you the diff of $4 over the final 6 months of the existing sub.
Of course, over the long-term the only additional cash generated is still just the amount of the premium service, but reseting the subs will provide a much bigger boost to near-term cash flow than I think people may realize.
Thanks Tyler for shedding some positive light in a storm of negativity.
This kind of reminds me of when I used to sell memberships for a small gym chain. MOST gyms prefer to sell only paid monthly memberships because it guarantees a constant chunk of revenue EACH month as the year goes on.
If EVERYONE paid in full…that constant stream of monthly revenue would dry up.
ONLY if a GYM needed immediate cash for renovations or was in debt would they push the short term PAY IN FULL gimme your cash model.
Unfortunately I worked at the gym where management pushed the PAY IN FULL option, and it was very stressful as a salesperson.
I can see why Sirius is pushing the pay in full option. And as a shareholder, at least for the short term…I approve of the tactic.
I HOPE that they don’t have to rely on that model for much longer. I just want this debt to get refinanced…and for Sirius XM to go back to pushing the more monthly model where a steady and constant flow of money is coming in EVERY month. I’d much rather have 19 million subscribers pay EVERY month than 8 million every month and ONCE every year 8 million others pay.
In regards to the Bail Out Bill passing the house again…I’m nervous. The Senate approved, but changed it and added SO MUCH FRIGGIN pork to it that the response from the House could be even WORSE than the 1st bill.
There is ALOT of pressure on the House to pass the bill this time, so there is leverage….but I am worried. The NY Post front page had a pig head in a business suit with the headline OINK! OINK!
There could be a backlash and it could be rejected tomorrow.
And knowing Sirius luck…that is TOTALLY POSSIBLE!
God I hope not. I just want Sirius to have a friggin chance to refinance a favorable deal…and FINALLY get a break where a POP upwards FINALLY can happen.
This two year anxiety ride is the reason why I am probably going to sell once I reach my break even point(IF I am so lucky)….instead of holding for the even longer ride up for a profit.
I just can’t take that chance again. THIS time I want to cash out when I get a chance. Knowing my luck THAT is when Sirius would EXPLODE upwards. LOL.
But I don’t think I could take another DROP back down should I decide to HOLD again.
I’d rather take the chance and get out with ALL the cash I ORIGINALLY put in Sirius over 3 years ago.
THAT is what would make me happy.
I have the feeling if I do that…I will have plenty of chances to get back in before Sirius REALLY explodes upward.
I just don’t trust that Sirius can do that short term. I have so many stocks that I KNOW can double once I got out of Sirius.
LOL….but first Sirius has to get back to $2.50 for me to break even. LOL.
Lord help me.
Friggen,
If you only got paid per rant on this site you would have already covered your losses.
Thanks for keeping the conversation going.
If not Friday, then eventually, the house will NOT NOT NOT let this bailout fail. They will resort to the same old tactics they have always used. Find the 12-15 guys who are against the bill and LOAD it up with the fat they can’t refuse. It all boils down BRINGING HOME THE BACON. That is what keeps Ted Kennedy in the senate for a 100 years.
I’m calling a bottom on this stock. Mark the tape!!!! Bailout plus the good news I seeing with the Best of has to be the beginning of the resurgance.
I hope you’re right. I hope this is the OFFICIAL bottom.
But the sobering thought is that a DOUBLE would only bring it back to $1.20 amd a triple only to $1.80!
Hard to believe.
The stock would have to more than QUADRUPLE just for me to break even….and my average cost is just over $2.50!!!!
QUADRUPLE!!!
Thats alot to hope for JUST to break even.
It’s amazing that there was a time that I was once hoping the stock would double so I could double my money. And Now it’d have to more than QUADRUPLE for me to break even.
Ok…I will stop now. 🙂
Come on Palin Debate…I need a good laugh.
what is happening on October 6th?
The concept that the bailout will loosen up cash for lending is misleading. If people don’t have the credit score, they ain’t gonna get to borrow the money no matter what. There are no provisions in the bill that will entice the banks to lend the money. In fact, they will be rewarded in interest payments for maintaining cash reserves.
The idea that SIRI needs the bailout to occur to borrow many millions is also misleading. Mel can get the money. Now whether the market will implode, is already being tested. The sky has not fallen, even though Paulson said it would. Recall that Paulson, McCain and Bush assured us that the fundamentals of the economy are strong just a few weeks ago. The bailout could do much more harm than good as Paulson divies up the money to his friends (Goldman among them) and they start the looting all over again. There are no provisions to prevent repeating the actions.
It is quite possible that SIRI will not be affected by the bailout either way.
i worked in M&A as a lead financial analyst doing valuations and pro forma P&L’s post synergy. I got to see just how accretive acquisitions can be and the favorable impact on the bottom line… Once the synergies are achieved (takes time to show up in the financials) all excess revenue will fall to the bottom line. The core Operating Expenses will stay the same or get reduced when contract renewals are negotiated… Just chill.. It must happen just as the night follows the day.
peace out
Exactly Horse. You wanna talk conspiracy? What about the FACT that Paulson met with the head of Goldman after Lehman went under.
A week later Goldman suddenly become a regular Bank? And the following week this Bail out for banks is proposed by Paulson and shorting of banks is banned.
Talk about things that make you go HMMMM???!!!!!
No wonder people are comparing this to the Iraq War. The use of FEAR to RUSH to WAR is no different then when Paulson USED FEAR to RUSH this TRILLION DOLLAR bail out to his rich bank buddies thru. NOT TO MENTION WITH NO OVERSIGHT.
Kinda reminds the secrecy surrounding the Iraq War all over again.
I just WISH I was out of Sirius and watching this from the sidelines.
It’s like we have it worse than EVERYBODY, because us Sirius Shareholders have been on an emotional rollercoaster ride for over 2 years now. Our stomach has been in knots so much longer before this Crisis. We’ve had NO relief from it.
Now suddenly EVERYONE is in the shit….but for us…it’s just extending the pain and frustration.
Oh look, we’re back in the 50 cent range again. GREAT.
I need a good laugh. That Palin debate can’t come soon enough.
frigginregan, just a thought, if Sirius SP gets you to break even from hear, something good has got to be going on. If after all this time the momentum is going the other way, wouldn’t you want to look at what’s driving the momentum change and decide then? After all this time and riding the stock through all of its bad times, you would choose then to not make a profit, when things are finally going in the right direction?
I hope Biden is wearing a pair of Depends tonight. I would hate to see the shit dripping down his leg.
Yes at the personal level, this bailout means future generations destroyed with debt, but for corporations there will be more capital in the system and less competition for that same $300M of financing. The financing Siri obtains must have better terms due to the increase in credit supply. So even though Mel will get financing regardless, the bailout has to help the terms he will negotiate. Clearly this is one of the major reasons he has yet to announce anything on the debt.
Banks are much more likely to lend to a large company such as Siri than you, me, or a small business because it costs them less.
For the country I am against the bailout but should it pass I can’t see it doing anything but driving up the stock price.
Cos…i look at it this way…as I feel NOW. And right now, I would LOVE to be out.
Not because I don’t believe in the company. Just because I can’t gauge it. It is the most manipulated schitzophrenic stock I’ve ever seen. And to be honest…there are SO MANY other stocks that I have been watching over the last 2 years. Stocks that ARE predictable. Stocks that I KNOW how they act.
I cannot tell you how MANY times I could have doubled and quadrupled my money in these stocks during this same period.
So…even tho I believe Sirius WILL have that break out moment where it EXPLODES….something tells me(EXPERIENCE! LOL) that if it did make it back to $2.50…..that it most likely wouldn’t explode from there…but either go DOWN again…or just hover in the $2 range for a looooooong time BEFORE it exploded.
So if I could get out at break even after being stuck for 3 years….and USE that cash in my other stocks….AND THEN get back in Sirius….I will.
It’s just the way I feel right now.
Of course if we start moving to $2.50, and then word comes out from Google that they are want to buy Sirius…and then a BIDDING war starts with MSFT….LOL….yeah….I probably WON’T SELL at $2.50 LOL.
But right now….the reality is we are at .58 friggin cents my friend and this SUCKS!!!!
A simple question… Has Sirius or XM promoted the best of service with either a mailer to each subscriber, an email, a pop up announcement on the radio units, or over the airways?
Just answer me this… without too much clutter. We know about Best Of because we are stock holders and/or fanatics. How has the company told the every day person or current subscriber?
I have been long this stock since early 05. I bought high, very high. I cost avg down $4, $3, $2.35. I am not an invester guru, I knew nothing about stocks 3 1/2 yrs ago. I just knew Howard is a cash cow for ad revenue, researched Mel and his track record and dove in. BIG mistake!! Some fellow investors told me to keep avg down if possible, I did until I had no more money. SO, with 8k shares and I don’t even want to tell how much I invested I will now buy more shares in one shot(10,000 shares) more than what I have already!! AT another 5K investment for 10,000 shares. I have nothing more to lose, I am already boiling in water!!
BUT, if this thing turns around to $1.50-$2.00(with the 18,000 shares) I will be alright instead of hoping for the $5 run up(8k shares) if and when it ever happens to hit near breakeven. I will HOLD for the LONG haul. I believe Mel will pull off the refi. 2009 could be a decent yr but I am waiting for 2010 to see what I will do. If I lose? I would rather lose trying than say at $5. $6, $8 pps shoulda woulda,coulda!! GOOD LUCK TO ALL!!!!!!!!
Look at your online account and see if it has been set to zero. Account info and trades currently unavailable at Scottrade. Maintenance, contributing to the fear factor or both?
FRiggin,
Sirius will surpass 2.50 one day if they get the financing necessary to survive.
They are doing all the right things, but the economy, credit crisis is not cooperating.
Mel may have to cut an additional 150 million more than he said (above the 425 million projected next year) in order to make up for the slow car sales & difficulty in getting loans & retail that is not guaranteed to perk up, even with new ala cart and eventually interoperable receivers. *** my opinion of course….
Mel also could be forced to do another convertible unless they get bailed out by some other means, but if you or anyone else is not selling, this would be welcome over not being able to get a term loan.
My feeling is they will get it for Feb, but May is now looming.
No bailout by gov’t and all bets are off.
All I can say is that if you are risking all your $ or $ you will need, be careful because they are walking a tightrope and it’s windy right now.
It’s going to be big % gains if they survive this.
X-ing my fingers !
Didn’t Mel say during the last fateful CC that he was already in negotiations to defer/extend the May issue?
Seems to me, if we can come up with the 300m in February, the next hurdle with be the December converts, and we MAY be in a much better position to negotiate at that point.
I have had this stock for a long time now, years havent made any money with it but i have to keep it now, hope for the best and with all the bad talk its still here. Look at gs they went under and so on and so on but siri is still in there down yes but still in the game, keep it long enough and it has to start up. One day i will look at it and it might be what i bought it for, dont want to think how long i might have to wait though
Sirius could bounce fast. I’m glad I took the opportunity to average down to a double cheeseburger and a small coke, while I could.
The thing that BLOWS my mind is that Sirius was at $3 in JUNE!!!!
We are at .60 cents now just 4 months later.
UN-BE-FUCKIN-LEAVABLE!!!!
It would need to go up 5X higher just to get back to $3 FRIGGIN DOLLARS.
The slow drop over the previous 3 years from $6 to $3 was bad…..but that was only a 2X drop over 3 YEARS!!!
The killer….the REAL AGONY was the 5X drop over the past 4 months.
What made it EXTRA painful was that the NOSE DIVE came after the long awaited HOLY GRAIL of the “MERGER”.
It was like a double whammy with Betrayal on top.
TO have come so far…thru so much and holding for so long….thinking if we JUST could hold on until the merger….we could at least break even after averaging down the past 2 years.
WE dropped from $3 to 60 cents in 4 months. How long do u think it’ll take for us to get back to $3?
4 years? There ain’t no justice. 🙁
Friggin
2 months ago F**** Cramer said it would double after the merger, he would scream every nite and say BUY BUY BUY
but, also Google was > 750 now in 400, RIMM split 3:1 and was 140 2 wks ago, now in the 60″s
As Paulson said, some people made billions from shorting and ruined the economy, BUT yet he does not want to go after them
SHould I remind you who was responsible for the S&L scandal, the bush brothers and daddy pardonened and bailed eevry one out
FCC…
I agree with you I don’t know if this bail out is good for the country.
Perhaps it should be handled in a different method. Forget the investment bankers, start paying off bad home loans, work deals with the people on the verge of defaulting, lower interest rates etc, start selling the homes that were foreclosed on and spend the money as you go along.
As far as passing tonight or tomorrow, It may not go through. One thing that is on the minds of a lot in the House of Representatives is the election. Some are up for re- election and have been getting thousands of e- mails (50,000 a day was typical) and telephone calls saying not to vote for this plan if they desire to stay in office.
The Senate is safe this time and does not have to worry to much about the up coming election.
I think it really stings us all that we have to give money to the people partially respsonsible for this mess
Can you beleive that we have a national debt problem, and the Senate tacks on earmarks.If there was anything that shows the House and Senate do not have a clue it is adding more debt to debt. Now if the House does the same thing, adding debt to debt to debt
They are insane.All of them should be voted out of office.
vaporgold
Friggin,
I sat by my computer that fateful morning that Sirius traded pre-market up to 2.80 the Monday after we heard the news on late friday that FCC approved 3:2.
I had my finger on the sell button pre-market, but could not do it and lost 80 % of my $ from that point because I thought it was worth waiting for “THE POP” when the market opened.
It never happenned and ended at 1.89 and kept falling to where Mel bought 1.37 & then waited for the highly touted “After Labor Day CC”
Neber happenned, but the disastrous Merril Lynch media conference did and then under $ 1 almost overnight.
Then the crawl back to $1.00 a few weeks back on a late friday and we all hoped that was the last time we would see a penny stock, but that hope was also dashed.
Now 60 cents, so the hope it would not fall below 5, then 4, then 3, never 2, absolutely never 1 and now the HOPE is no lower than 50 cents.
What a friggin disaster if I must use your screen name !
At 60 cents with this Bailout vote looming, car sales at a standstill while retail sales are dismal.
Hoping car sales and loans free up, hoping 4th quarter retail perks up with newly merged company.
Will car manufacturers help sirius with loans to stave off bankruptcy, but they could see that themselves.
Maybe Cramer was right when he said this is a lottery ticket.
If you load up here, you could make 5X your $ if it hits $3 or go completey broke.
50k in would turn into 300K or zero.
I want 5X my $ and still feel the hope dreaming of the turnaround in the stock price and Mel showing everyone, but is this collapse in our economy too great is the question I’m asking myself and that’s why I keep getting in and out of the stock.
Danger of being in is it can go to ZERO.
Danger of being out means financing could be announced and could go to 1.35 in 1 day.
Of course these scenerios are only so dangerous when you have all your eggs in 1 basket & I am guilty of this with this stock and still can’t 100% let go because I want revenge on my $.
Very dangerous game.
SXM..
I have never been tied to the whipping post as long as I have with this stock. Just makes me sick sometimes.
The toughest part today is that we can see some light at the end of the tunnel. This stock goes if we get a couple of breaks, the loans addressed, the car market comes back to even pre- bail out numbers and we will be fine.
We are going to have 19.5 million subs, and we should add a couple million each year. I keep telling myself this stock has to take off.
The numbers are there, it just does not seem to happen.Kinda of Crazy
Or like you said going to zero or a forced buy out etc etc.
I simply don’t know any more.
So I will wait and hope.
vaporgold
Vapor,
I have this fear that the 12 million car sales # Mel gave is in major jeopardy right now, so I’m worried about this coming at the wrong time, where Sirius just needed 1 more year to get past their own crisis of needing loans, but this world crisis with credit markets had to happen on the heels of the FCC fuckjob they did to all of us.
I keep telling everyone that knows what happenned to me that I’m not stupid, I saw the crisis in the world coming in ’08 and did not want to be in the markets & wanted to stay on the sidelines.
But I was teased and lead on like a horse with a carrot on a stick from the Robert Peck December ’07 call of the imminent approval days away to the FCC saying they could get it done by March, then May, then….
Holding on to bitter end because I put my life into it like all of us have and could not live with myself if I bailed before we had an answer one way or another.
I believed deep down it would finally be approved and it was down in the low 2’s because there was risk it might not be.
Absolutely a nice big pop for 1 day at least on approval, right ?
Now we all got abused and look like asses.
every time there is some kind of good news they try to make something bad out of it.
its amazing how cheap a stock will go…that is when CHAPT. 11 in on the line. But is it.. and where will it go when the market figures out that it isn’t.
It poped only for one day above 2.70 on thursday 7/24. then it started going down .20 – .30 every day onwards. That day I could not sell more than 10 k and kept the rest believing in Jim Cramer’s knowledge that it SHOULD double based on his meterics and experience.
The F***** liar was poping it and dumping it for his GS friends to naked short it
did anybody notice that some one has a bid of 900,000 for 0.6130 in after hours !!!! this never happened before
Is there some thing going on !!!!!
did any body notice some one put bid for 900,000 at 0.6130 in after hours trading which never happened before !!!!
Is there something going on, or just short poping it up to dump it later
now the bid is gone
wow, talk about manipulatio
Holy SHIT….XMinvestor….I had to look at your last two posts 3 TIMES before I realized YOU wrote them.
I was CONVINCED that I WROTE THEM…..they were THAT close to how I EXACTLY FEEL…and WHAT I went thru with this stock.
It’s like we are the SAME person.
And then I realized that we ARE. We ALL are the same person. We are Sirius shareholders, and we’ve been on the same journey thru HELL.
It’s amazing how we keep playing the same record over and over again. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a DIFFERENT result.
I think that is EXACTLY how it’s felt to be a sirius shareholder. SO many times I was going to cash out. SO many times. ANd yet I stayed in whenever I heard the “MERGER IMMINENT” call of the siren. AGAIN AND AGAIN I fell for it….and EACH time got burned.
THAT is EXACTLY WHY I wrote in a previous post how if I was LUCKY enough to break even IF Sirius rose to my average cost of $2.50…that I was CASHING OUT PERIOD.
IF I AM that lucky…I am going to RESIST THE CALL OF THE SIREN THE NEXT TIME. I don’t CARE WHAT FRIGGIN REPORT comes out that Sirius is going HIGHER comes out. If I am LUCKY enough to get a pop to that price…I am OUT. Period.
I just don’t have a fix on this stock anymore…HECK…I NEVER did. I think SOMEDAY it could be a giant….but the stock has just driven me NUTS.
I’ve watched in HORROR as it dropped on GOOD news again and again. If THAT wasn’t a sign of the apocalypse to come…I don’t know what it would have taken to make me see.
The hardest part was watching ALL THESE OTHER STOCKS behave like NORMAL stocks that I would have made a small FORTUNE in again and again…if I ONLY had the FUCKING BRAINS to get out of Sirius when I saw those signs….instead of being a deer stuck in the headlights.
Again…I LOVE the product. LOVE it.
But I am DONE with the stock. I can’t get out now….but I swear on my grandmothers grave….if I get the chance to CASH OUT at my break even price….I am gonna take it without hesitating. 🙂
friggin,
I can absolutely understand where your at with this stock. I have been in it for some time and your right about the opportunity costs killing anyone holding out. I just can’t see me letting go of it just as it starts to make headway. I have dollar cost averaged down and bought and sold small batches to get my break even down to just under $2. I will sell some, 25%, at 2.85 – 3, but if their execution is good I’ll hold on to the rest. I have learned to sell on quick pops up and buy back on the return trip. That has helped ease the pain, but I never thought we would be here at .60. Well good luck.
Hey, I have 2 XM radios and 1 Sirius radio.
My Sirius is on lifetime — I can ‘upgrade’ to the XM for an additional $150. Seems a little steep — you’d need over 37 months at $4/month to make it breakeven.
I believe Sirius radio owners got the shaft. I think the XM + best of Sirius is a much better package (NFL, NASCAR, Stern, Playboy) vs Sirius + XM (NBA, Golf, O&A, Oprah).
I upgraded to the 3 year XM + Best of SIRI package. With this package the SIRI basically cost me like $2.80 a month, which is a no brainer.
I wish that they gave you MSD on a 2nd radio, but it doesn’t look like they do that if you want to add SIRI to a 2nd XM radio.
Also, I look forward to seeing having 1 XM and 1 SIRI and having that count as an MSD Radio….
Hey friggin and others. I told myself. I’m not selling through the merger. Then we got the debt disaster. All the while I said “for once I’m not selling. I believe in this investment and I’m staying in”. Well the rest is history. Looking back, my only option would have been to simply hate satellite radio as I fell for every Mel quote and every merger pop story. Now I’m lying under the ground floor looking up at the place I used to be. And I can’t figure out how to get a ladder or some way to get propped back up their. It’s actually embarrassing to revisit my decision. Will there be a life learning lesson from this that will make me a better person in the future. I hope so cause thats the only way I can look at it.
I read Homers post on yahoo. He has facts that’s fine. But reality is .60. And the posters on this site all seem to have gravitated to that fact. .60 is .60. No excuses allowed. None. Nada.
socalrunningfool you capture how I feel EXACTLY when you talk about how it’s “EMBARRASSING TO REVISIT YOUR DECISION”.
I KNOW what you mean too well.
It’s a sick feeling. And one that I am sad to say I’ve fallen for again and again. Like pavlovs dog…I kept salivating EVERY time I heard a good report after being knocked down. So I’d JUMP right back in….and average down some more.
Or I’d TALK myself out of selling SO many times. When I think of those moments, it IS embarrassing indeed.
I think I FINALLY have found the key to changing that. I have to SEPARATE my love of the product with the stock itself.
It is obvious to me that the stock WILL NEVER reflect the company. And continuing to believe it WILL…is the recipe for disaster.
THAT is the thing I learned. And I won’t make that mistake again. So no disrespect to COS….but I AM DEFINITELY GOING TO SELL once it HOPEFULLY reaches $2.50.
For me to fall in love with the stock again….would be like the battered wife who won’t leave their abusive spouse.
I intend to BREAK that vicious cycle once and for all. Could I be wrong? Sure…anyone can be WRONG. But EVERY SINGLE time I talked myself out of selling before when I had a chance….I have LOST BIG TIME.
I will NOT let that happen again. I am willing to take the slim chance that it will keep going up….but I don’t think it will.
At this point to get out at BREAK EVEN would be a VICTORY for me. It’d be FREEDOM. The ability to BREATH again.
I’d consider it a LUCKY BREAK for the stock to QUADRUPLE from .60 cents to $2.50. It’d be a small miracle, and I’d feel elated.
Again…LOVE the product….but I’ve felt a lifetime of pain with the most erratic, schizophrenic stock I’ve ever experienced. I will not confuse my love for the product and the stock EVER again.
There are soooo many stocks I feel I know better that I am SURE I can make a profit trading. I also feel that should I be lucky enough to get out at $2.50….that I’d have PLENTY of chances to get back in at the $2 range.
Maybe I am just psyching myself up. Maybe I am nervous that should it go back up, I will become that dude that REFUSES to leave the Black Jack table….only to lose it all.
I only hope I get the chance.
The only suggestion I have that I have finally given into lately that has worked so far, but will only work until the day it doesn’t work is that I have gotten out a few times and bought more shares lower and I hope to have the opportunity to do this a few more times to get my average price down and increase my shares.
Now it doesn’t matter how many shares you wind up accumulating if it eventually goes to nothing, but at least I’m not putting any new $ in to get the shares.
If it goes back to 2.50, then you make much more than if you just hold & hold, but the big risk is that it runs on you the one time you get out.
If anyone thinks I am on of those traders, I have never been because I convinced myself this was an investment that I just needed to hold for a few years and it would pay off big.
I wanted for once to invest in something I really understand and believe in and a product I love, a very simple business that could be gauged and it turned out this strategy was bad.
Instead of holding for years and adding to my position with new $ on every dollar drop, I should have traded on runs up, waited & bought more on the pullback and this would have given me a ton more shares then I have now without the added investment of my savings.
Always thought I would sell at the wrong time, when merger was approved & on and on and I never needed to hold, but I did out of hope and more importantly out of fear that my dream stock that would make me big $ would run up on me.
5 years later and what a sucker I feel like.
Now I’m trying to be aggressive, but my luck is that financing will be announced or their will be an upgrade by GS on a day I decided to sell to average down.
Friggin –
I listened to you rant and rave and say what we all want to say, but as much passion as some of us have, you seem to have more passion than all of us.
Keep it up and don’t give up as there are not many of us left still on board.
I imagine the day all of this was not a waste and I have all my $ back and more and fear the day I am wiped out and still left with my monthly subscription and wonder if I would go to an IPOD only for the reason of not having to look at the receiver in my car which reminds me of the devastation.
I bet I’m not the only one who feels like this either.
The BEST of Sirius & The WORST of Mel…
Not to beat a dead horse, but I was reading an interview that Mel did on September 9th and it PISSED me off all over again.
First he said, “We have made great strides over the last six weeks and continue to make progress integrating the company and delivering on our promises to customers and stockholders,”
Delivering promises to stockholders? Really? And WHAT promise was that Mel? To TOTALLY DESTROY the share price? The day they closed the merger Sirius was $2.40…the next day? $1.50!
The DAY Mel gave the above interview the stock price was $1.27. The day AFTER? BELOW A FRIGGIN BUCK!!!!
Please Mel….NO MORE PROMISES. JUST DO SOMETHING….like REFINANCE THE FRIGGIN DEBT UNDER CONDITIONS FAVORABLE TO US THIS TIME!!!!
And what about coming out with a FRIGGIN TV COMMERCIAL. I thought “SYNERGIES” was going to consolidate the advertising…NOT COMPLETELY ELIMINATE IT!!!
And LASTLY the interview had this UNBELIEVABLE admission from our CEO concerning an ipod with Sirius built in….He also reported that he had met with Apple’s Steve Jobs soon after he joined Sirius in 2004 and discussed adding Sirius reception to iPod’s capability but said that even the best deal proposed, while it would expand the consumers’ ability to sample satellite radio, would not generate any great revenue for the company. “We are focused on generating cash flow and not in generating press releases,” said Karmazin. “We are not as interested in creating a sampling device as generating money.”
WHAT THE FUCK KIND OF VISION IS THAT??? Mel admits to dismissing the idea of combining Sirius with the ipod which had 70% of the FRIGGIN mp3 market!!! Talk about a total lack of leadership. HOW can Mel say it wouldn’t have been good for Sirius because it wouldn’t generate a profit?
EVERYONE had an ipod by that time. ANY retard could have seen that NO portable was EVER going to compete with the ipod. The fact that Mel didn’t have the vision to realize this….and that it WOULD generate profit…simply by reaching a wider audience. How could it not? It would have exposed people to Sirius in HUGE numbers.
I dunno what he was thinking.
And here it is a month after that interview and we are at .60 cents flirting with the 50 cent range.
Again Mel….NO MORE PROMISES.
“He also reported that he had met with Apple’s Steve Jobs soon after he joined Sirius in 2004 and discussed adding Sirius reception to iPod’s capability but said that even the best deal proposed, while it would expand the consumers’ ability to sample satellite radio, would not generate any great revenue for the company. “We are focused on generating cash flow and not in generating press releases,” said Karmazin. “We are not as interested in creating a sampling device as generating money.”
Yeah, join the club. Oh wait, I think I’ve seen you at the same club.
Friggen…………….. I will promise you that for the remainder of my lifetime I will never repeat this again. That means that anytime we get any type of runup (now there is wishfull thinking) I am selling a percentage of what I have.
Let me tell you the most pathetic trade I’ve ever made. Two weeks ago the stock hit .68, I sold a few thousand shares simply because I thought screw it………..I may as well have a couple bucks left. Now the pathetic part. The stock climbs back up to 1.0. Remember. I’m thinking what a pussy I am. Can you say that word. Probably politically incorrect. Anyway, so what happens. The piece of shit stock drops to the .50’s. I’m thinking how pathetic is that.
So two days ago, I wake up bored, decide that every morning this Mels toilet paper stock starts at it’s high and never returns. I’m thinking that prick in Cinncinati must get to work a half hour after the market closes. So I sell a thousand for grins at .64. I’m thinking to myself I suck. What happens the pile of crap goes into the .50’s.
In summary “THE ONLY GOOD TRADE I”VE EVER MADE IN SIRI HAS BEEN A SELL”.
Sorry but it’s the truth.
SXM investor I agree completely. And I feel just like you said at the end of your post. Thankfully friggenregan posts here, cause he is like going to counseling without having to pay.
Now please allow me a few moments to vent.
Mel I don’t care how many times you blow Howard. How many things you’ve done in the past. How great you are cause you made this merger. You can kiss my sorry broke ASS cause right now you screwed me royal!!!! You suck you suck and you just plain fucking suck.
Show me the money or eat shit and die!!!!!!!!!
Somebody asked how is SIRI XM informing its existing customers about the new “Best Of”? I’d like to know. I am not a subscriber yet.
Hey Tyler, great show last night on SiriusBuzz radio…even without Brandon.
I just have to take issue with one of the very last things you said as the show was closing out. You were basically stating a fact that Sirius has to be careful with it’s free money…even in regards to it’s advertising.
True.
BUT NO ADVERTISING? NONE? NOT ONE COMMERCIAL SINCE THE MERGER CLOSED OVER 3 MONTHS AGO??
WHEN you add those 3 months to the 17 Months of MERGER LIMBO when there was ZERO advertising by Sirius…that’s TWO FRIGGIN YEARS WITHOUT ANY REAL TV ADVERTISING.
I would argue that Sirius CAN’T AFFORD NOT TO ADVERTISE.
We need a commercial, and we need one now. HOW FRIGGIN HARD is it to come up with a creative commercial promoting a KICK ASS PRODUCT with some of the BEST FRIGGIN MEDIA CONTENT AROUND?????
PLEASE. I want to know.
And it doesn’t have to be a LONG EXPENSIVE TV CAMPAIGN. BACK in 1984 APPLE AIRED THE FAMOUS BIG BROTHER TV AD….ONCE!!!!!
My point is…internet radio RHAPSODY is airing commercials like crazy. PEOPLE KNOW MORE ABOUT FRIGGIN RHASPSODY than FRIGGIN SIRIUS XM RADIO!!!!!
It’s an outrage.
You could have general ads announcing ALL the content….and HERALDING A NEW GIANT in RADIO has ARRIVED. LET PEOPLE KNOW how FRIGGIN GREAT AND COOL SIRIUS XM is.
PEOPLE DON’T KNOW WHAT IT IS….LET ALONE THAT THEY MERGED. Don’t let FRIGGIN RHAPSODY take the spotlight away!! Not after you’ve just FRIGGIN WON the battle of the decade with this MERGER!! SHOW the public HOW MUCH COOLER SIRIUS XM is than the likes of RHAPSODY. That it is REAL RADIO with LIVE UNCENSORED CONTENT, MUSIC AND SPORTS.
YOU can also run specific ads that target specific groups. In the 6 year history of Sat Radio I REMEMBER ONLY ONE FRIGGIN COMMERCIAL…and I bet the majority of the public does too…THE FRIGGIN XM DEREK JETER BIG POPPY BASEBALL COMMERCIAL where they say EBERY TEAM!!! EBERY GAME!!!
It’s ingrained in my FRIGGIN BRAIN.
THAT is what we NEED. And we NEED it NOW!
God damn it! If Mel is as excited about this merger as he says he is….SHOW IT.
Advertising serves many purposes. Besides getting the word out….it’ll create a positive BUZZ…something that will HELP overshadow the negative CLOUD thats been hanging over this stock.
GIVE us SOMETHING to cheer about while we wait. LET THE PUBLIC KNOW that there is a NEW MEDIA GIANT in TOWN. Make it the COOL MUST HAVE THING. You’ve got the CONTENT on your side that you paid BIG BUCKS for…SO FRIGGIN USE IT!!!
HOw FRIGGIN HARD IS IT TO CREATE A KICK ASS COMMERCIAL?? Get a hip hungry young ad company to really hit it out of the park for you.
This merger is a GREAT story. Your content is an EASY sell.
To go on letting the likes of FRIGGIN RHAPSODY steal your THUNDER is not only unforgivable….IT’S FRIGGIN KILLING YOU!!!
Have you LOOKED at the stock price lately Mel???
Don’t just say it SUCKS and laugh it off!!!!!
FRIGGIN DO SOMETHING.
You CAN’T control the economy or the horrible credit crisis. BUT YOU CAN CREATE A KICK ASS TV CAMPAIGN that is ENTERTAINING and INFORMATIVE and that will STICK IN PEOPLE’S FRIGGIN MIND!!!
So that when the dust settles on the economic crash…YOU AND YOUR COMPANY will have some FRIGGIN MOMENTUM GOING INTO THE UPTURN.
AM I ALONE HERE? I’m just a lowly stock holder….but COME ON MEL….SHOW SOME PASSION. You fought for nearly 2 years to get this merger done….DON’T DROP the BALL NOW.
SHOUT IT OUT TO THE WORLD that SIRIUS XM has ARRIVED!!!
I wanna see a commercial NOW! 🙂
You are right. When do people begin Christmas Shopping? I’ve got to think SIRI XM will have an ad blitz for Christmas shopping season. If they don’t then we’ll be in deeper shite.
Is October 6th (this Monday – in three days) still the day for the official big roll-out? A weekend blitz would be a great surprise, but I’m not holding my breath.
On a positive note, there has been a good amount of internet advertising at many sites I visit. These are all blow outs for discounted old equipment.
Be nice to know how SIRI is informing current subscribers of the “Best Of” deal.
How bout that guy that got stuck with 300 radios that cannot be programmed?
If you want to watch D-day here is the link.. I think the vote is supposed to be around 12:30
I am an asshole. Let me repeat that. I AM AN ASSHOLE.
Instead of putting money into other stocks in my list…I have CONTINUOUSLY chosen to throw it into Sirius in an attempt to “Average Down”. And EACH time I have…SIRIUS has gone LOWER. WITHOUT FAIL.
The last time I did it was when Sirius hit $1. After I bought…Sirius dropped into the 70 cent range and I cursed as I watched ALL the other stocks I was interested in GO UP.
I VOWED to sell my last average down chunk if it went back to $1.
A few days later it did….when Sirius ran up to $1.08.
But I DiDN’T FRIGGIN SELL.
ANd I was rewarded by my STUPIDITY with Sirius dropping to 60 cents.
But thats not the WHOLE reason I am an ASSHOLE.
Like I said, I have a LIST of other stocks that I’ve researched while being stuck in Sirius the last 2 years. Stocks that I KNOW intimately. Stocks that I pretty much KNOW when they are going t go up. What range they trade in.
NOW…YOU WOULD THINK that Instead of FRIGGIN AVERAGING down in Sirius…I’d throw money into these other “sure bets”.
But Nooooooooooooo.
I never do…and I always kick myself.
Case in point ETFC…or etrade. EVERY time it dips to $2.50….it ALWAYS goes back to $3.50. It has done that TWICE in the last week. TWICE.
ESLR….one of my fav solar stocks is a steal in my mind at these levels. TWICE it has dipped into the mid $4 range or lower and BOTH times it bounced back to the mid $5 range to $6.
There is no doubt in my mind that once this economic crisis settles…it’ll go back up to it’s $8-$10 range…and even HIGHER if Obama wins(which odds are he will)
AND YET….AND YET….I KEEP THROWING MONEY INTO SIRIUS LIKE A FRIGGIN RETARD.
My last “AVERAGING DOWN” was the last straw. I could have just as easily put that money into either ETFC or ESLR for the fast pop which I KNEW WAS COMING. But I DIDN’T.
Then AGAIN when Sirius popped back up I had ANOTHER CHANCE to take that Sirius chunk out like I wanted to at break even and THROW it into ETFC or ESLR(among other stocks on my list)….and AGAIN I DIDN’T.
Both times I lost out on 40% gains.
This market sucks…but it’s GREAT for trading. And I have a BUNCH of stocks like ETFC and ESLR that I KNOW will MAKE me money.
ANd YET….like a drug addict…I throw my money into something which is KILLING ME.
NO MORE.
IF Sirius goes back to $1….I am cashing out that last chunk of money I averaged down with. I’ll let the rest ride…until it reaches my NEXT BREAK EVEN point and then I’ll cash out that amount too.
But this is why I am an ASSHOLE.
I could be making money right now….and I am not because of my last bone headed move.
They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and EXPECTING a different result.
I will NOT make the same mistake again.
This is a GREAT MARKET TO TRADE….so many cheap undervalued stocks out there that if you study trade in a predictable range with the ups and downs of the market.
BUT Sirius doesn’t. It is an island onto itself, and I can NEVER get a bead on it. Never Predict what it will do. And EVERY time I dump some money in…it goes DOWN.
While my other stocks trade in VERY PREDICTABLE MONEY MAKING PATTERNS.
LOL…..I am such an ASSHOLE. 🙂
Ur telling me, I was going to buy wachovia in the beginning of the week, then I saw the news about Wells Fargo buying them, i almost threw up on my computer
EXACTLY. This market is a ONCE in a life time opportunity to play volatility. Like they say…when there is blood in the streets…thats the time to make money.
That adage is so true…EXCEPT in regards to Sirius.
Again. LOVE the company. But the stock is cursed. It’s a plague. A black hole. It’s EVIL incarnate. Whatever analogy you want to use….SIRIUS as a stock is the WORST ever in my entire history of trading. I have not made ONE dime on Sirius. There is no “trading pattern” with Sirius besides the one that goes like this….SIRIUS HITS 52 week LOW…YOU BUY…AND IT IMMEDIATELY GOES LOWER.
Like LOOK at it right now. I know you have your etrade marketcaster up or Ameritrade and are watching it.
LOOK at it just sitting there at 60 cents….teasingly saying….”Buuuuuuy meeeee…..buuuuuuy some moooooooore. I’m not going lower I swear…..”
Don’t you FRIGGIN BELIEVE THAT WENCH!
Oh…she may get tired of waiting…and may “dip” below 60 cents and try to tease you with 58 cents…..but it’s a TRAP!!!!
Lol. I HATE this stock.