Goldman Sachs Bullish On Sirius?
Maybe…Last nights SiriusBuzz Radio show may prove to have been very enlightening. During the show a certain gentleman called in making claims that he managed a hedge fund and was calling from the Caymans.
The caller claimed that he and other hedge fund managers had received instructions yesterday by “Jonesie” of Goldman Sachs to not only cover their short positions in Sirius XM but to now take “long” positions in the equity. As the host of last nights show and having participated in several others, I can attest that this person has not called into the show previously.
Certain statements he made were in fact backed up by the price action of the stock on the 28th. Also some mention was made of positive company news expected next week from Mel & Co..
I want to caution the reader that these statements may or may not be true. Only time will offer the answer as to their validity. Buying stocks on such rumors can often lead to disaster as anyone could use the radio show to manipulate small retail investors. In fact I am writing this for the sole purpose of making that point clear as I have noticed the news of this call has now been leaked to message boards.
As one poster put it, you are either long, or you’re not. If you are long, and the information provided by the caller proves to be true, great! But beware, a rumor is not a reason to buy a stock. Fundamentals and Technicals are the only reasons. For those that missed the show, you can hear a replay at SiriusBuzz Radio. The call in question occurs at 34:30 into the show.
Position: Long SIRI, no position on GS
Very Interesting CAYMAN said watch for 250,000 Buy blocks today. I think there was around 8 to 10 & 2 500k Buy blocks. CAYMAN also said $1.33 would be the low Well is wasn’t but it was the close seems like he would buy his other 500k share block at $1.33 as he said he owns 500k & said the hedge fund friend covered 8 Million shares yesterday & seeing as the market TANKED today I have a feeling SIRI would of closed $1.40 if the market was up 44 not down. I think many Hedge funds had a very busy day today .
Also most of the $1.32 was sold via ARCA book as Cayman said watch volume on ARCA i saw 1M come on the ask at $1.32 when the price dropped yet it got gobbled up by some Big buyers at $1.32 & $1.33 today with a 1.4 Million Buy block at the close.
Maybe Goldman is about to UPGRADE SIRI ? seeing as they own 8Million shares now.
Yesterday Volume was 85 Million today just 41 Million Shorts must of covered alot yesterday.
I still have a LONG TERM perspective on this stock. Meaning my “excitement” is reserved for the long term.
The shares I bought today will be for the short term.
I look forward to Mel’s conference call next week…but I wouldn’t get too excited. I agree with Brandon that the trading range will stay short term at least between the 1.30 and 1.50 range.
So if on news it pops to 1.50…I think Brandon is right again to assume that the shorts will then knock it down to 1.30 again.
Since i don’t see it going lower than this…expect this scenario to play out again and again…UNTIL some MAJOR news comes out(FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE).
But again…I know as much as the next guy. This is just what I plan to do.
Oh…Lionmaster….I wouldn’t hold out hopes for a Goldman Sachs upgrade so soon. Not after 3 consecutive downgrades this summer.
They will wait. IMHO.
I think your purchase and plan is a good one. The 1.50 price, if it closes and holds is a sign of a buy or upside for the stock, not a sell. My 1.35 purchase is what I am playing with to entertain myself while I wait. If I see high volume and a 1.49 – 150 close I’ll hold on to all the shares I have and wait for the elevator up. IMHO
Brandon said 1.50 would be a double break out
and for what it’s worth I agree with Brandon’s technical analysis.
Some say it is typical behavior for a large fund to both hold shares and short shares concurrently. That way, the fund cost averages down. When it shorts the stock enough to shake out all the scaredy-cats, the fund then buys up the shares and rides it back up. Its sometimes called the Itsy Bitsy Spider Play.
Brandon, Cramer is saying buying after Feb 09 when the share price gets closer to $1 is a good idea. I have a few thousand shares now and considering selling and buying back after the re-fiance. What would you recommend?
Sirius Shareholder…
I recommend you seek professional advice and not make decisions based on the opinions of Cramer nor Myself.
Exactly. Cramer also said Sirius was going to go to $5 INSTANTLY after the merger…and look what happened.
To believe him now when he says with such certainty that Sirius is going to $1 after the February debt is due….is foolhardy at best.
Brandon is right. If you put THAT much faith in external opinions, you’re better off getting professional advice.
Otherwise do your own homework and make an informed decision based on what you believe and can afford.
There are so many different opinions…and even if you do all the homework in the world and feel so sure about your findings…ANYTHING can happen.
Same with Cramer or anyone else.
Thanks!
Brandon, any comments on what Mel may report or announce on the next conference call that he hasn’t already mentioned?
PM..
I really wish I had something. I think some focus may be on where the line item deductions may come from and maybe an increase in the 400 million synergy number.
As an example, the seperate companies spent about 50 million per quarter each on marketing or 400 million a year combined. Just cutting that number in half would equal a 200 million dollar annual savings. There is no need for 2 investment relations departments anymore, etc.
I see a push in the works to remove from the market most existing radios…ads are popping up everywhere on the net now. Go check Sirius.com and most are mmarked clearance.
This tells me the company believes that the new offerings will be in stores in time and we just may get new product announcements.
Thanks Brandon. On another post, Will commented that you should make Mel Karmazin aware of some of what you cover. Despite Will’s unnecessary chidding, I tend to agree–but with a twist. It may be that the company, in its planning and post-merger plan execution, may not be aware of some beneficial insights and ideas covered in SiriusBuzz threads and on your weekly program. Might be a good idea to do a search for the “best of the best” and compile them, if you are of a mind to do so. You could list insights that Sirius may not be aware of but should consider that come from this community. You could run the input by relmor, cos1000, egiscodr, and the rest of us first, get feedback within a set time limit, say a week or two from today, edit and then send the input to Mel for consideration. OK, I’m reaching, but upward communication matters and who knows, maybe SiriusBuzz can make a collective contribution that will result in a tick or two or more up, or at least give Sirius XM executives input that could spin in otherwise beneficial directions and actions. And while I’m at it, how about inviting Mel to one of your weekly shows. Or if he is unavailble how about his CFO or COO? This could do a couple of things: 1) give you a first-hand opportunity to interview him/one of the other officers for us, and 2) if marketed even at a penny-pinching level by Sirius XM, increase the already good relevance of SiriusBuzz. Just thinking “out loud” again.
good suggestions pm. do they watch these blog’s? some very inteligent posts here….compile clips from the best & send to r&d/marketing dept.