Goldman Sachs Bullish On Sirius?
The caller claimed that he and other hedge fund managers had received instructions yesterday by “Jonesie” of Goldman Sachs to not only cover their short positions in Sirius XM but to now take “long” positions in the equity. As the host of last nights show and having participated in several others, I can attest that this person has not called into the show previously.
Certain statements he made were in fact backed up by the price action of the stock on the 28th. Also some mention was made of positive company news expected next week from Mel & Co..
I want to caution the reader that these statements may or may not be true. Only time will offer the answer as to their validity. Buying stocks on such rumors can often lead to disaster as anyone could use the radio show to manipulate small retail investors. In fact I am writing this for the sole purpose of making that point clear as I have noticed the news of this call has now been leaked to message boards.
As one poster put it, you are either long, or you’re not. If you are long, and the information provided by the caller proves to be true, great! But beware, a rumor is not a reason to buy a stock. Fundamentals and Technicals are the only reasons. For those that missed the show, you can hear a replay at SiriusBuzz Radio. The call in question occurs at 34:30 into the show.
Position: Long SIRI, no position on GS
Exactly Brandon. Caution MUST be taken with any rumors regarding Sirius. The manipulators KNOW how GUNG HO the die hard longs are. They KNOW how excited they get on ANY news. Even after the big anti climactic let down of no post merger POP….we still strongly believe in this company.
It’s the perfect environment to take advantage of this enthusiasm. So weigh everything you hear with added skepticism.
I listened to the show last night. And when that “Cay Man” came on…yeah…it was exciting to hear.
But then I thought…hmmm. What IF this guy had a thick Brooklyn accent? Would people have believed him? Or dismissed him as another overly enthusiastic fan boy…or worse…sleezy short manipulator.
My point is…take EVERYTHING with a grain of salt.
If you’re long already…your in.
It may be a good time to add more. I tend to agree with Brandon that we’ve pretty much tested the bottom and will probably trade in the 1.30 to 1.50 channel until some good news comes out.
So I think it’s fairly safe to buy more shares now…if you want to add to your position or get in for the first time.
But anything can happen. And after the INSANE last 18 months and the way the big boys have manipulated this stock…my spidey senses tingle everytime I hear ANY rumor.
Good luck all. 🙂
Like I said last night in the chatroom, which I was completely ignored, I felt this guy sounded like he was full of s**t. I hope you kept his phone number.
It’s just that the manipulators know ALL the tricks. Have you ever seen the movie The BOILER ROOM???
They are master actors and KNOW how to SOUND exactly like what you want to hear.
Not saying this guy was fake…but again…an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
Just proceed with caution.
Remember, this guy’s phone number showed up as area code 818, I think. The shorts just want to get up again to push it back down. I even considered buying more for a few seconds… But I’ll kick myself if I blow my wad now and miss a sub dollar opportunity.
BTW Brandon, I think “Best of” programming is supposed to work on all existing radios as premium content. The new radios are for a la carte. Stern will be available to all existing XM subs for $4 more. Bank on it!
Also, Cramer is a tool, but I think he is saying that SIRI missed the Interop radio opportunity for the ’09 oems. But doesn’t specify this, so he can have it both ways. Bash the stock, but still be able to cover his ass.
Good job last night.
I just saw this link posted on the yahoo message board.
http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings.....ected=SIRI
Has GS removed their sell rating on the stock? Or is the Nasdaq site incorrect?
Hi Nsxdan-
Thanks for the link to the NASDAQ site. The 13 “Analyst Firms Making Recommendations” listed in the chart you reference are the 13 firms making recommendations. These 13 recommendations include everything from Strong Buy to Sell and are not broken down by individual opinion, so it is impossible from this particular chart to know where GS currently stands.
It’s still early in the day…and we ARE going into a holiday weekend…but so far it looks like that CAYMAN dude might have been blowing sunshine up our butts.
Again…keep a level head.
Long and Strong.
Sounds to me like a way to take the SP a few ticks up and the short the hell out of it again. Never buy on what you hear on the internet. Never buy on what Brandon, Tyler, Jim Cramer, friggin regan, Homer985, John999, Newman, SiriusXMInvestor or I, cos1000 say or guess to what might happen with this company’s stock price. Absolutely do not make investment decisions on caller BS. Its entertaining, interesting, see what happens information only. Do your own research, verify the numbers and make your own investment decisions based on what you can afford and are willing to lose. Stock picking is like gambling with a lot more information available to make mistakes with.
I just re-listened to last night’s call where the “Cayman” guy called in. Brandon had the call registered as coming from the 818 area code. The 818 area code is in the Los Angeles California area (I just did a google search). If Brandon has the full phone number, it is possible to go to 411.com, click on the “reverse phone” tab, and type in the full phone number. Then, unless the phone number is a cell phone or an unlisted number, the name and location of that listed phone number will appear.
Additionally, perhaps it was a slip of the tongue, but last night and the two times I replayed that “Cayman” section today, I heard the caller say “I haven’t taken a long position yet”, then later say he picked up a half million shares today and would be buying another half million shares tomorrow.
By the way, I think he did not say he managed a hedge fund, but that his friend did, and that he was given information by his friend and another person.
He could be 100% legitimate, but these things would be interesting to investigate. Also, even if he is not legitimate, coincidentally he might be right.
The next 10 days should be very interesting.
I thought that GS had Sirius on the sell or convicted sell list. The lowest rating on the Nasdaq site listed for Sirius is underperform. I would assume that is GS. Any thoughts?
Again. I have to LAUGH. If that dude from the “Cayman Islands” didn’t have a “British” accent….NO ONE would be having this conversation right now.
This says VOLUMES about how much everyone is clinging dangerously to ANYTHING that remotely sounds “OFFICIAL”….and how easy it is to dupe people into believing what is a rumor at best…and underhanded manipulation at worst.
Nothing is going to move us until we hear what Mel has to say…and even then, it’ll be a volatile stock until REAL proof of the promised synergies are apparent.
Nsxdan-
You are right! My mistake. The lowest rating on the chart you reference is, indeed, underperform. Very interesting!
even more interesting, sirius has moved up the most actives this morning and now ranks 4th in volume
BUt hasn’t Sirius trading volume ALWAYS been higher than most?
I’m not sure if I see anything to glean from the fact that it ranks 4th in some list, when it’s always had an INSANE trading volume.
Why would you open a new long position and maintain an existing short position. Doesn’t that negate any move in the stock for your account.
I am not asking a rhetorical question. Is there a reason why you would be long and short the same stock at the same time.
Jon
listen again…they were told to cover their short positions and then go long
ok Bradon on the news how much of a spike can we see before it pulls back some, that cart thing you posted IM having alittle trouble with it
I don’t know if cayman is legit or not but I would not give it too much thought, if he would have posted that info on the yahoo message board he would have been put on ignore.
joe..
not sure what you are asking…trading range is 1.30 – 1.49.
The fact that 1.31 has not been breached is bullish sign, although it may get there today.
The drop today can actually be attributed to short covering…buy orders are placed at low bids…not higher..so if we do have covering occuring it would drop the price initially…
Brandon I was writing about your trend chart you have it at a break out at 1.50. If it would go up to 1.55 1.60 1.65 from what I understand from the chart it would be a down trend after that. So on the news from Mel after laborday would it hit these high numbers
Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see if it dips below the magic number of 1.31. If that happens, it could scare even more to sell….
but if you’re going to speculate, it could be EXACTLY what a institution like Goldman Sachs would WANT to happen leading up to Mel’s conference call if they were planning to cover and go long.
Get one last panic drop in.
Lol. But then again…WTF do I know? LOL…I’m just a another long speculating.
noe joe…1.50 would be a buy signal…I would update you after that on the immediate trend following…but I think we wil be in this trend until the questions are answered.
frigginreagan, as far as volume is concerned, other than Tues., Aug 19, 117 mil sh and yesturday’s 80+ mil sh, for SIRI the volume has been between 25-50 mil sh / day, which is fairly light for this stock since the merge. I would expect high volume today regardless of the BS caller because “Shorts” in conflict are closing their positions prior to the long weekend where any news could jeopardize their current gains.
Has anyone heard from Mel on a conference call to provide some guidance and all the rest??
My only question is if so many shorts are covering….why would we be going down?
Speaking as a broadcaster… I’d be careful with airing callers like that, without being able to verify their validity — even if it is just an internet radio show.
While internet and radio broadcasts are considered somewhat different — internet radio isn’t held in the same regard as broadcast — something like this could be considered fraudulent, if not handled properly. A host must imediately indemnify the broadcast and host from the caller, telling the listener that they can not verify the callers validity and whether or not the caller is legitiment. Even just allowing a caller to pass on questionable info can land a host/show in trouble. You’d be surprised at how many DJ’s have lost their jobs for allowing stuff like that to happen.
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Bradon I understand it would be a buy at 1.50 but at 1.55 1.60 there are o,s not x,s that would be a sell right. Look at your trend chart.
Homer, personally I don’t think it’s a big deal…and for the record, Brandon DID bring up doubts and underscored the fact about not taking ANYONE’s word as truth right off the bat.
That being said, who really cares? I mean really? The stock price is at a virtual bottom. Whats the downside risk? Not much if you ask me. And besides…anyone who listens to Cramer….let alone an anonymous caller from the CAYMAN islands and takes what they say as gospel has no one to blame but themselves should anything go wrong.
joe
As of now, because 1.30 has not been hit, there have been NO changes to the chart. It remains exactly as I presented it 2 weeks ago in a line of X’s. 1.50 would be a double top breakout and my target would then be 2.25.
https://siriusbuzz.com/sirius-xm-whats-going-on-with-the-stock.php
frigginreagan, my comment was that “shorts” in conflict which I define as a large number of traders moving in “short” and out “shorts covering” at the same time, throughout the day. The net effect is a few pennies either way, a lot of commissions, and above average volume.
i see
friggenragen and cos1000, great points above. I’m loading up on cash but won’t pull the trigger ’til upside confirmation. Last night chatting on the show I asked if cayman could be vetted. I’m HIGHLY skeptical–eager–but skeptical and holding until indicators line up….
PS: I’m FNG from the show….
thank you Bradon. I went to the site you mention on that post to try to take in some of it but it didnt click .not yet anyway. thankyou anyway keep up your posts always looking forward to them.
Also, interesting how from 11:38 to 1 p.m. (local CST) the SP bounced three times from 1.32 …
To tell you the truth the only person I want to hear from now is Mel.
For the last 18 months we have all been a little shell shocked.
Everything positive had a negative reaction.
Confused the hell out of most of us.
But we also know that there are alot of people out there that have means to play the market a little better then most of us here.
Most of are just along for the ride.
I love the product,and Management should shine. I’m pleased to be a Sirius/XM subscriber and share holder.
Sirius/XM. LONG
Great job with the show Brandon
joe..
the only “trick” to this type of charting is that it does account for every little tick, and takes out the emotion of trading..
No reversals are made unless the stock reverses direction by 3 points. In this case, it MUST hit 1.30 in order to begin a new column of O’s.
So as of now, the column of X’s is intact.
Brandon, anything on something coming due on the 27, Aug, 2008 that could require the purchase of 200 million shares?
Brandon, FWIW The title of your article is somewhat, and I minimize, sensationalist in nature. Given the negative impact that GS has had on the Stock Price the title draws in the news hungry and then leaves them with very little but a rumor. You could lose a loyal following with this type of hype. Just my opinion.
Lord help me. I just accumulated MORE shares. 🙂
When there was no “pop” as Mr. “cayman” predicted(as I expected!)….I was non the less impressed with the way Sirius held firm to the established bottom going into a 3 day weekend.
I have a long position in Sirius…and I plan to use these newly acquired shares to trade the 1.30 to 1.50 channel and short term volatility. Hey…it’ll be cathartic to actually get the satisfaction of making SOME cash with Sirius for a change. 🙂
I’m looking forward to the run up to Mel’s post Labor Day conference call.
Depending on what transpires I will cash out these shares on any pop or perhaps keep em long with the rest of my shares.
Oi vay!
Anyway…have a great weekend all.
Very Interesting CAYMAN said watch for 250,000 Buy blocks today. I think there was around 8 to 10 & 2 500k Buy blocks. CAYMAN also said $1.33 would be the low Well is wasn’t but it was the close seems like he would buy his other 500k share block at $1.33 as he said he owns 500k & said the hedge fund friend covered 8 Million shares yesterday & seeing as the market TANKED today I have a feeling SIRI would of closed $1.40 if the market was up 44 not down. I think many Hedge funds had a very busy day today .
Also most of the $1.32 was sold via ARCA book as Cayman said watch volume on ARCA i saw 1M come on the ask at $1.32 when the price dropped yet it got gobbled up by some Big buyers at $1.32 & $1.33 today with a 1.4 Million Buy block at the close.
Maybe Goldman is about to UPGRADE SIRI ? seeing as they own 8Million shares now.
Yesterday Volume was 85 Million today just 41 Million Shorts must of covered alot yesterday.
I still have a LONG TERM perspective on this stock. Meaning my “excitement” is reserved for the long term.
The shares I bought today will be for the short term.
I look forward to Mel’s conference call next week…but I wouldn’t get too excited. I agree with Brandon that the trading range will stay short term at least between the 1.30 and 1.50 range.
So if on news it pops to 1.50…I think Brandon is right again to assume that the shorts will then knock it down to 1.30 again.
Since i don’t see it going lower than this…expect this scenario to play out again and again…UNTIL some MAJOR news comes out(FREE CASH FLOW POSITIVE).
But again…I know as much as the next guy. This is just what I plan to do.
Oh…Lionmaster….I wouldn’t hold out hopes for a Goldman Sachs upgrade so soon. Not after 3 consecutive downgrades this summer.
They will wait. IMHO.
I think your purchase and plan is a good one. The 1.50 price, if it closes and holds is a sign of a buy or upside for the stock, not a sell. My 1.35 purchase is what I am playing with to entertain myself while I wait. If I see high volume and a 1.49 – 150 close I’ll hold on to all the shares I have and wait for the elevator up. IMHO
Brandon said 1.50 would be a double break out
and for what it’s worth I agree with Brandon’s technical analysis.
Some say it is typical behavior for a large fund to both hold shares and short shares concurrently. That way, the fund cost averages down. When it shorts the stock enough to shake out all the scaredy-cats, the fund then buys up the shares and rides it back up. Its sometimes called the Itsy Bitsy Spider Play.
Brandon, Cramer is saying buying after Feb 09 when the share price gets closer to $1 is a good idea. I have a few thousand shares now and considering selling and buying back after the re-fiance. What would you recommend?
Sirius Shareholder…
I recommend you seek professional advice and not make decisions based on the opinions of Cramer nor Myself.
Exactly. Cramer also said Sirius was going to go to $5 INSTANTLY after the merger…and look what happened.
To believe him now when he says with such certainty that Sirius is going to $1 after the February debt is due….is foolhardy at best.
Brandon is right. If you put THAT much faith in external opinions, you’re better off getting professional advice.
Otherwise do your own homework and make an informed decision based on what you believe and can afford.
There are so many different opinions…and even if you do all the homework in the world and feel so sure about your findings…ANYTHING can happen.
Same with Cramer or anyone else.