What To Expect In Mel’s Media Conference Speech
With regard to tomorrow’s speech, from an equity perspective, I am going into it with reasonable expectations with room for surprise. I think it possible that enough time has passed for the Sirius XM Radio CEO to give some merger flavor, as well as guidance. I feel that some plans for consumers will be outlined, and that we will begin to see the merged company taking shape.
In actuality, I am looking at the speech tomorrow as more of a launch pad for additional information. Let’s not forget that this is not only a satellite radio conference. This is an overall media conference, and using it as a forum for several major PR announcements would not seem to fit with the style of conference at hand. Instead, I look for new information that will likely be generalized, and used as a platform for additional Press Releases and announcements over the coming weeks. It will be the Sirius XM Press Releases that contain the details.
While at the conference, I would anticipate that the Sirius XM team would make themselves available to answer analyst questions regarding everything from financials to projections, to how various metrics will be accounted for by the merged company. In time, these analysts will begin to issue new reports regarding the company. The end of the third quarter is fast approaching, and now is the time that analysts will need to change their models. The balance of September should be interesting.
Thus, I feel it important that sector followers listen to the speech, but temper enthusiasm for announcements with the realization that this conference is not a Sirius XM Radio conference, but rather a general media conference.
Position – Long SIRI
Tyler-
Thanks for clarifying what to expect on the call and what not, because of the nature of the forum, to expect. I think your clarification will help those of us who read your website to temper our expectations of what will be said at this single event, and for us not to feel concerned if certain things are not covered, or not covered at length.
Having said that, I think we also all need to be aware that there are a few people (only a few) who do not come to this website, so likewise, any potential upside movement of the stock price will be tempered by the lack of fullfilment of those people’s (or institution’s) expectations for this one event. I think Mel realizes he has to say something “important” tomorrow, even if he cannot say everything.
Thanks again to Tyler and Brandon, and all those others who post intellegent, well-reasoned ideas on this website. It is really a wonderful forum.
Maybe the stock will only lose .08?
I can assure you that if Mel does not deliver Sirius plans tomorrow you can expect the pps to drop further and it would not surprise me that if it goes under a $1.
This stock will continue to go lower, it will be a while till this reverses…I also think that all the people who were speculating about the apple thing got wind that there will be no team up
If there is no news, I am suspectnig that there will definately be a drop, but to drop to under $1? I don’t know about that… that would be a 15% drop. I would not expect it to be that significant, but Plowboy’s estimate of 0.08 is a definate possibility.
It would take a 26% drop to get under $ 1.
We’re all going to be surprised to see stock rise tomorrow instead.
The conf. Is an approp forum for the apple announcement. That will happen today. I have a great connection that says guaranteed. He hasn’t been wrong yet, from 6 doll to 1.30!
If Apple DOESN’T create an ipod with built in Sat Radio….wouldn’t it make PERFECT sense for Microsoft to beat them to the punch and put it in the ZUNE????
I mean if Microsoft wants to for the FIRST time UPSTAGE the ipod…SHOULDN’T they build a ZUNE with SIRIUSXM built right in?
I mean, no mp3 has dominated the LIVE RADIO segment yet. And now that SiriusXM are ONE….I am surprised this hasn’t happened yet.
Is it because no one wants to? Or is it because it’s just too soon yet, in that Sirius and XM haven’t yet truly merged their programming?
I know there is talk about SiriusXM becoming more of a content provider…but an actual HARDWARE solution is still viable. Imagine an ipod or a zune with a built in Sat radio receiver. Live Radio EVERYWHERE. No need to be near a wifi hotspot. It would add something that both the ipod and zune don’t have now. And although both can download an internet SiriusXM player….NEITHER of them have a TRUE SAT RADIO.
I think the one that strikes a deal with SiriusXM and builds the first TRUE sat radio mp3 player will have a HUGE leg up on the other.
Mel cannot and will not announce any apple deal, if its even real. He is speaking prior to the Apple conference, and will finish before the apple conference gets underway…
It would be up to Steve Jobs of Apple to announce it, not Mel. Mel may be more vague in his language and speak of content distribution deals through new devices and such…
I totally agree with Tyler’s assessment to keep expectations LOW. After all this is NOT a SIRIUSXM thing. Mel is just SPEAKING. And thats why I think it’ll just be more of the same from Mel. He’ll just be reassuring the analysts that he still stands by his previous predictions.
About the Apple thang…I wouldn’t expect Steve to announce a Sat/Radio ipod. If Apple and Sirius HAD struck such a deal, he’d be inviting Mel out on stage.
I find the whole XBOX rumor funny. Don’t get me wrong, I’m ALL for putting SiriusXM in the XBOX…hey…put it in EVERYTHING. Put it in my electric blender for all I care!
BUT…if true…WHY go with the XBOX first over the ZUNE???
If Microsoft wanted to ONE UP Apple for a change…wouldn’t it have been BETTER to build a sat radio receiver into their ZUNE FIRST??
I know the XBOX deal is thru the internet and not an actual receiver…but I am really surprised NEITHER Apple of Microsoft has not been more aggressive about SiriusXm yet.
I mean NO ONE has a great LIVE RADIO solution yet.
Imagine being able to listen to LIVE sports ANYWHERE on your ipod or zune? Howard Stern? Live Concerts on the go?
When will people wake up and realize the huge potential of having SiriusXM in their product?
ARGH! 🙂
fcc…
http://www.gizmag.com/go/4761/
Hey, how ’bout that Michael Dell? Just ponied-up $100m of his own dough to buy Dell stock . . . yes, $100m!!
Now that my friends is conviction . . . certain CEO’s I can think of should be embarrassed.
All I understand at this point is Mel is what will make this company great. It’s his plan and dream to make this company the largest Media company out there. The question is will he be taking current common shareholders with him. I am looking for something, anything, solid today. Anything less will have me reconsidering my Long position at this time, stepping back and watching what happens, period.
He has to give us and analysts something to move forward with. He said there would be clarity after Labor Day, so far nothing. Today is his day to shine and investors should expect nothing less.
i still think this is a looooooooong term play….and that anyone expecting new earth shattering news from Mel today is setting themselves up for a fall.
fccoff,
its not me I am concerned with its the SP.
thats what i am saying. the share price is still at the mercy of short term expectations. Until everyone wakes up to the fact that this is going to take a looooong time we will be constantly let down along with the stock.
not that i want it, but part of me thinks that the best thing for shareholders would be if the stock got TOTALLY knocked down once and for all to $1
at least then, the fact of it being undervalued would become absurdly clear finally. and at that price it would be virtually impossible for it to go lower.
i just dont think ANYTHING will move this stock other than long term proof of profit over the years….quarter after quarter.
Bye, bye….sinking fast.
wow. a new 52 week AND 5 year low all in the same day.
I think we all know what is going to happen. Cohen will reiterate her buy with the same price target and the stock will continue to slide. GS Wienkees will put his note out that will solidify his $1 or below target. All in all….nothing changes. See ya in 2011.
confused as to why Mel didn’t believe a mere apple/siri press release was not in the best interest of the company… wouldn’t that press release be a result of siri actually creating a deal with apple that would ultimately make them money?
…and shouldn’t the mention alone improve the stock price?
Well . . . as expected, nothing new from Mel today with the possible exception of a “slowing growth” sales forecast.
So . . . once again common shareholders must wonder how Mark Wienkes is getting his information. His $1.00 forecast is NOT what should scare investors but rather his statement that he “was being generous” at $1.00 and that the stock is probably only worth “$.45”
I would not bet against Wienkes . . .
he actually said the stock is probably only worth .45 cents?
So…in a couple of months he went from $2 to $1.75 to $1.50 to $1.25 to $1 to below $1 to NOW a specific pps of $.45 cents????
Talk about a moving target. Just because he manipulates a stock down to a price target doesn’t mean he can repeatedly LOWER his target. He can’t keep doing that with a company like Sirius that may have some debt issues, but does have tremendous growth and earning potential. Wienkes can’t keep playing that game. Eventually he’ll have to stick with a bottom. I don’t care HOW powerful him and his shorting buddies at GS are….he’ll have to stop lowering his target if he doesn’t want to get caught with his pants around his ankles someday.
That being said, can we FINALLY stop talking about the short term now? I seriously DOUBT Sirius will go below a dollar….but I also am tired of hearing all this short term positive HOT AIR that Sirius or Mel is going to announce something that will DOUBLE this stock overnight.
ENOUGH.
If you are LONG…BE long. This is going to be a loooooooong slooooooooow penny by penny ride back up over several years.
The ONLY and I mean ONLY thing going to move this stock is quarter after quarter of positive earnings. NOTHING ELSE WILL EVER MOVE THIS STOCK….PERIOD.
So no more talk about BIG ANNOUNCEMENTS.
Dude….if you only LOST that if you SOLD. EVERYONE was expecting the BIG “POP” post merger. It’s not even been a quarter since the companies merged, and you’re jumping ship?
If you are angry, it has more to do with impatience than anything. Soon as everyone STOPS looking at Sirius as a SHORT TERM investment and rather a LOOOOOONG term one…you’ll all be ALOT happier.
Wishing that Sirius declare Chapter 11 just shows your bitterness.
Why can’t you just ADMIT you are disappointed because YOUR short term plan to make a killing has failed…and NOT the company. Why can’t you admit that the MERGED company of SiriusXM JUST GOT FRIGGIN STARTED…and that it will take a few years to pay off??
WHY can’t you ADMIT the long term potential of this company? Would that kill you?
So a short term investment of yours didn’t pay off the way you had hoped. Why can’t you admit that we would have had your “POP” if the FCC approved the merger back in the summer of 2007 when they should have?
Anyway….it’s a long term play now. Sell and stop complaining. Or hold and deal with it.
Sirius Ain’t gonna die…and you aren’t going to DOUBLE your money overnight. Why can’t people hold both a positive long term view of Sirius AND be patient?