Stifel Bullish – Goldman Cautions On Sirius XM
There were two reports issued by analysts today in response to the guidance issued by Sirius XM radio. Analyst Kit spring of Stifel noted that Sirius XM Radio’s guidance exceeds the Stifel model. This could be substantial in that there is at least some indication that sirius XM is being conservative in their numbers.
Spring notes that a stable churn is important, and if the company can maintain stability in churn, even in tough economic times, that it may help give some validity to the business model. Stifel’s spring is maintaining his BUY rating on Sirius XM with a price target of $1.25.
The second anlayst that issued a report today was Mark Wienkes of Goldman Sachs. Wienkes has been highly critical of Sirius X<. and in this report, little has changed.Wienkes noted that SIRI now estimates 2008 year end subscribers at 19.1 mn versus 19.5 mn previously and that he feels that number is sharply below the Goldman estimat of 19.6 19.6. Wienkes also notes that Sirius XM ended Q2 with 18.6 mn subs, and thus, the new guidance implies only about 500,000 net adds in all of 2H08 vs. 900,000 as previously forecast, and about one-quarter of the 1.95 mn added in 2H07. Wienkes gives no indication as to whether he thinks Sirius XM is being conservative or aggressive in their guidance.Rather than issue a new price target, Wienkes noted that the Goldman Sachs estimates and price target are under review.The report stated, "The lowered subscriber outlook reflects both the weak auto market and a higher saturation of natural demand for the product, in our view. We see more signs signaling further caution is prudent for any investor in satellite radio. Specifically, (1) Sirius’ lowered outlook; (2) a pending change in retail distribution partners (yesterday Directed Electronics announced the cessation of its Satellite Radio distribution deal as of 1/2009); (3) Time Warner Cable noted it was seeing a pull back in its premium service offerings; and (4) higher churn at DirecTV"Position - Long SIRI
I was able to enter my voting instructions through my broker this morning for the upcoming shareholder’s meeting.
getit..
i received proxy from sirius xm in email today…will hold off voting for awhile yet.
socal
i think shorts will cover late today…anticipating CC monday.
GS closing in on 52 wk low.
Weinke fans soon to fade away………..
Hope.
I received proxy instructions myself today.
Anyone attending the mtg?
i can’t attend meeting and still dont know which way to vote…waiting for cc and after nov 30th.
to bad gs is now nearing low…they imploded us so its coming back to haunt them in other ways too. they are losing credability.
Maybe now GS will stop shorting SIRI and go long to raise their pps and get our price higher…we will help them raise money for their tremendous loss in value that way. LOL
with awful job loss report today…market is not reacting badly…seems its up 171 pts now
Agree that we should move up towards close.
I think this Obama conference has the market moving higher.
Buy on news sell on announcement. So by 11:30 we will see what happens.
I would like to see GS go long. After……………….Weikes is sent long out the door.
Big Ben..
We have watched the spiral the same as you.
From the time of the merger until now it has all been down hill. A 91% drop in shareholder value in the last year, and all the news since the merger has been bad.
According to Mel the merger was going to be the best thing to ever happen for the stockholders of Sirius and XM.
In the last 12 days Mel changed his projections on the sub numbers. That alone is unbelievable.
I was hoping for the Feb note to be serviced which we will find out Monday. That would be the First Good News since the merger.
The sub numbers now projected present some real problems. Retail SiriusXM has abandoned and nobody seems to know why.
You say bankruptcy,some us here say RS and taking the company private. At a couple cents a share on a RS the company is an easy target for the buy out, or Mel can continue to run it in to the ground and BK it.
The results for us all are about the same, we get screwed.
The question then is, has this all been intentional and planned? most of us would say yes if that is the outcome.
Mel has aa obligation to the stockholders. If the loan was so bad, he should have walked away from the merger.But he didn’t, and if needed we need to call him on it in court.
The RS will be voted on very soon.We don’t have the numbers to stop it.
Followed by more bad news and a drop in share price.
Followed by some offer in the near future for a buy out,or BK
Then a real class action suit would be required.
The courts and America have seen enough of the stealing by Wall Street Executives and I have no doubt of the outcome of a trial.
Lets see if we are fed more lies Monday.The merger was going to be the best thing that ever happened according to Mel.Perhaps for him and some of his friends.
I hope we have good news and climb out of this.If that is case a lot people on here buying at these prices will do very well.
But I still don’t trust anyone, and the lies just keep coming.
imho
vaporgold
Vapor
I hope to be swimming by dec 31..my pps avg is now .97
The scenario for the stock moving higher is completely political.
1. Congress bails out the auto makers.
2. Congress creates jobs.
3. Sirius/XM numbers go higher with both.
4. It’s a very likely scenario that is playing out right before our eyes. C yesterdays mtg with Pelosi.
I hope to be on the bandwagon when the music starts playing.
socal i agree with you…
IMO
i think mel is really low balling numbers to see how market reacts so the pps bottoms out by worst scenario…over the weekend he will be crunching numbers again for cc.
besides our value his ego is at stake and he does not want to be considered a loser this late in his life by wall street gurus…thats his motivation to get value back in pps. nothing more nothing less. IMO he won’t bk company he has cash and bills are being paid.
So Cal SiriusHope..
I hope you guys are right!!
later
vaporgold
Dire news for GM.
GM has 3 1/2 months of cash left to burn. Funny how that corresponds with the Feb debt issue.
GIS. It is dire news. And yet, they represent labor at it’s core.
See todays picture of all three automakers with the head of the auto union sitting with Pelosi etc.
The Bush administration took care of it’s boys. Now it’s a whole new ball game. I’m telling you right now.
Many industries left for dead will be revived in this new administration.
I’m not saying whats right or what wrong. I just hope to be on the train thats moving out rather than the one that getting put off to the side.
This press conference will be a sneak peak at many to come, and how they are responded too.
You heard him. Main St. must not be overlooked by Wall St.
Main St., is car manufacturing and many, many other things tied to labor. I would bet health care stocks do better.
I wonder if anyone has taken the domain name:
stopgoldmansachs.com
I’d be willing to kick in a few bucks to start it up . . . the American public has gotten a belly-full of Goldman Sachs and King Henry Paulson and his 36 year old protege (former Goldman employee) who is handing out OUR $700 billion.
Why did we save AIG? To save a certain counter-party by the name of Goldman Sachs.
The worm is about to turn . . . the thought of an expose website is very tantalizing . .
Charles . . . please let the below link stay. It is relevant to the growing unease with Goldman Sachs and their excessive influence in the marketplace. The topic will get lost in the Forum section and will not generate more than 2 or 3 replies . . . thanks in advance.
http://www.nydailynews.com/opi.....sachs.html
Hey Roadkill,
Amen to the demise of GS!!!!!
Unfortunately,
He stated the terrible economic numbers and reminded everyone that his chance to work on them is still months away.
So the market takes it as a negative.
But……………………..The carmakers WILL get bailed out. And big time.
And Oprah is on XM. Thankfully.
hey socal . . .
Goldman CEO Blankfine was paid $100,000,000 in Fiscal Year ’07.
and check this out . . .
In the proxy, Goldman said its board urged the rejection at its April 10 annual meeting of two shareholder proposals on executive compensation.
One would give shareholders an advisory vote on pay. The other would stop Goldman from awarding new stock options to top executives. The latter is being offered by Evelyn Davis, who has complained about excessive executive pay for decades.
Blankfein, 53, became chairman and chief executive in June 2006. He replaced Henry Paulson, who became U.S. Treasury Secretary.
Nice, huh?
Roadkill,
Me socalrunningfool………..Speechless………
What a fucking scam……….
Vaporgold….nice post..I’m glad I not the only realist on these theards. People or should I say sheeple don’t even know when they have been had. We were promised for 17months big things man big things, and we got cake in the face! Hommy the clown style! lol! Hommy don’t play dat! great skit
As for a bailout of the autos…don’t hold your breath. Where is the goverenment going to get the money? From all the products it sells? No, from us and if not us our children. Does anyone not have their head in the sand? We have lost 1.2 mil jobs this year..500k in two months! The Obama bounce was the worst two day lost on Wallstreet ever, I think..not sure on that one, but it was bad. Today we have a bullshit rally of 200pts that is eroding as Obama speaks. If we finish down today I would not be surprised. Furthermore, you could not pay me all the money in the world to have his job. He is going to fall flat on his face and I am so glad the Bush bashing is over. In three years we will be saying, wow Gw wash not really that bad. He played the hand he was dealt and freed 50mil people along the way, not to bad for a stupid redneck from Texas, eh?
Big Ben.
Autos will get bailed out. Guaranteed.
What will that mean?
Big Ben – The markets sold off because people woke up a realized that Bush is still in power until January. Get a fricken clue and pull your head out of the sand.
See how stupid my comment was. That’s how you just sounded blaming someone. I can’t stand people that blame others when they have no clue about how it all works.
Now go back to clinging to your guns and religion.
BTW – My Mom lives in PA so there you go.
GIS. LOL.
Your comment was so stupid I still have no idea what tf your talking about. As for the market…this one is simple…more sellers than buyer genius.
It’s okay if you didn’t understand. I wasn’t trying to offend anyone.
By the way, it’s spelled you’re, not your.
Side note…I own two guns and they are attached to my body, muscle milk!!!!!
As for Religon, I believe in evolution. Not intelligent design. Religon is the biggest farse on this planet. Lets not get into a debate on religon, you can not take me down on that subject.
“Mom where is my fin protein I told you I was out!”
I don’t think its spelled you’re. I was taught to take the ‘ out and then say it. You are comment was…..that does not sound right.
Organized religion might just be one of the greatest businesses ever created. Mormonbuzz, now there’s a site for you. Just think, we could all buy stock in that one.
You stated, “what tf your talking about.”
It is supposed to be, “what tf you’re (you are, in you your example) talking about.”
GIS and BBEN. LOL
It time to go to PFchangs, Kung Pow shrimp and scallops, mongolian beef with mushrooms, lettuce wraps and crab wontons. Now were talking my language. Everyone have a good weekend except the Colts, they come to the burgh this weekend. Defence
I stand corrected and respectfully agree…I thought you ment the first your. Next time I might drop some Pittsburghese on youns! Hey youns goin don to pants-n-nat? Nah were going don to Shop-save to gets some hoagies.
You sound like my brother. Joe, is that you?
SoCal..
I think you are right. Obama will bail out the auto industry in a heart beat, or even quicker.
He has to, no choice long term. In his eyes we have to build cars here in this country that lessen our dependence on foreign oil ,dosmestic
oil, and create jobs.
Remember we need jobs right now.He will not let those manufacturing jobs go overseas. No way, no how.
Who will pay for the bail out, us the taxpayer, however, don’t be surprised if you see a part ownership in the auto industry by us until the debt has been paid back to the taxpayers with interest.
imho
vaporgold
Vapor,
Thanks. I listened to him this afternoon.
He completely supports the auto industry.
Vapor. We took a big big hit these past four months. But…..I feel there is an opportunity for those who remain unbiased and who focus on the opportunities ahead, to make some good investment choices.
I’m personally thinking about moving out of two mutual funds I am in, and taking a few positions in companies that I think will benefit from the next administration.
Gas is going under $2. I know all the news is very bad, but I just have this gut feeling that there is going to be tremendous support for change and for the new administration from Jan – June.
If so, I hope to make back some losses and gain back more security for my family.
In regards to Sirius. Mel is from New York. Very much a Democratic state. Mel has always been attached to media. Generally considered more liberal.
Mel, has to have ties to some of those that were in the Clinton administration. He held a high position, so I would think that he would be possibly well connected.
Take Get It Straights comments regarding GS. They are no longer the big cheese come January. There boys no longer will have the inside info, or be able to dole out the green to them.
Guys like Cramer will be completely unable to have any impact at all. Not that he does now, but more so very soon.
These types need to go away. Their greed and the greed of others like them are what took us into this economic mess. GIS has it right. These bonuses and pay for these Wall ST. guys is so out of line that it’s sickening.
So I voted for McCain. But I’m damn well putting my money, what little I have left at .26, on the Obama train. If possible.
Take care Vaporgold.
It boggles my mind how we can trade 215,592 pre-market and 45,825,900 shares today and 813,222 shares after hours and finish unchanged. That’s amazing manipulation!!!
I’m putting my bid in for 100,000 shares at .18 cents on Monday pre-market. Hope for a big drop and then rise to .25 and make 7 G’s – worth a shot.
holdingmyankles…
your name says it all..better get a tube of ky jelly for that move too.
Holding…
I would think news will be leaking out during the day Monday.
If it drops during the day, I doubt it is coming back up anytime soon.How far it drops is equal to how bad the news is.
If it starts up and continues the news may be good, but who can believe what Mel says anymore, it changes every couple of weeks now.
I am waiting to see if his nose starts growing.
Good Luck
vaporgold
SoCal
Be careful and good luck.
vaporgold
Hope. Condom too???????
SoCal
Still above .25 yep… lol Monday that will change.
vaporgold
Best news would come out early Monday morning: “Mel hit by 3 large trucks.”
1. MelOpensMouthPPSdrops Syndrome averted.
2. Karma cycle complete.
3. PPS finally skyrockets.
Unless it’s the greatest secret ever regarding debt reduction, I would agree that your .25 is in jeopardy.
Vaporgold.
How did we get here again?
I seem to have forgotten.
I remember bits and pieces regarding a merger. Now I have two bits worth one share of stock.
It’s surreal.
Am I reading this correctly that the report comes out pre-market, but conference call is not until after market closes ?
If so, this is a first.
Maybe they want the trading to settle down and the #’s to really sink in before they talk ?