Sirius XM Trades Under $1.00
The stock price of Sirius XM Radio have hit levels below $1.00, indicating yet another downturn in the equity. Analysts have begun to weigh in on Sirius XM, and while most have maintained their price targets and outlooks, the pessimism on the street continue to weigh heavily on the stock.
Yesterday we highlighted the opinions of CITI and Goldman Sachs, and today J.P. Morgan, RBC and Stifel have added their two cents to the pool.
Barton Crockett of J.P. Morgan, concentrates on the financing that will be due in February of 2009. He feels that the company cash reserves will not be able to simply buy out the debt and that Sirius XM will have to test the challenging credit markets. Crockett maintains a “Neutral” rating on Sirius XM radio, and highlights the debt, as well as cautioning that the OEM and retail channels are weak.
Also adding his opinion was David Bank of RBC Capital. Bank is still pegging Sirius XM as Sector Perform with a $2.00 target, but seems cautious, pointing out the weak auto market, weak retail, and the refinancing overhang. The analyst also commented about the lack of long term “visibility” on satellite radio.
Kit Spring of Stifel had a bit of a scary edge to his report today. While he maintained “Buy” rating on the stock, he adjusted his price target by 33% taking it from $3 to $2. Spring says that company guidance was negative, and adjusted subscribers and financials down for 2008 and 2009. The scary part for investors is that Spring noted a downside potential of “ZERO” if the company is unable to get the some of their debt refinanced. Spring does feel that the company should be able to obtain financing, but the debt overhang seems to be a heavy weight on the stock.
Clearly current prices have people scratching their heads and wondering what the best position is. SIRI for under a dollar seems like a bargain to some, but others still see more of a haircut in the cards. What everyone needs to understand is that SIRI is a speculative stock. There are issues that the company has to deal with, and an economy that breeds pessimism. Each investor needs to consider many factors, and their own trading style before jumping in or getting out. This company needs time. The question is whether the street is willing to give it to them. Should the company announce a resolution to their debt issues, the biggest overhang can be removed from the stock.
Position – Long SIRI
I wish we could do a radio show now. The problem now becomes Sirius is having its back driven against a wall again.
It’s as if they are trying to force sirius into another bad deal, rather than give them the time to secure a loan.
I’ll leave it to you to define “they.”
Is this normal market pessimism or isn’t a bear stearns style take down ?
I’ve been with this stock a long time – since before 100,000 subscribers and this have never looked this good for the company yet the stock is in the tank.
Hey Tyler, I hear you. We are all in the same boat, but with different strategies, and we have to make our own separate choices in regards to our risk tolerance.
That being said…what do you think will happen IF Mel is able to get a more favorable early refinance of the Feb debt?
Do you think that would be ENOUGH to move the stock up out of it’s sub dollar range? Or do you think the bashers and shorts will still reign and point to the XM debt in May and the last chunk of debt still due at the end of 09?
I know you keep saying this is the BIGGEST overhang still left, but I can’t help but feel that it won’t be enough to sway this negative outlook the other way. I’m beginning to feel the ONLY thing that will accomplish that is PROVEN PROFIT over many quarters.
I am one of those pissed with Mel’s underpromise/overdeliver speech yesterday. I think it hurt the stock ENORMOUSLY…even more so than the merger refinancing which Mel did.
Because even as he spoke yesterday, he was saying how he was lowballing and that it SHOULD be much higher. WHY THE FUCK LOWBALL THEN? I mean if you are admitting in the same friggin sentence that you are lowballing…WHY EVEN DO IT?
WHY did he give such low numbers? Just to WOW everyone later? WHY NOT just give at least a MODESTLY POSITIVE OUTLOOK? INSTEAD OF THE NEGATIVE ONE HE GAVE?
It was the single worst “tactic” I’ve ever seen…especially in light of the economy and the HELL this stock and it’s shareholders have been thru.
I mean he sold us out to the shorts and bondholders to close the deal….and NOW he throws us to the Wall Street wolves when he DIDN’T HAVE TO!
I didn’t want him to blow smoke…but COME ON! He could have at least provided a more cheery outlook! Especially since he KNOWS he was underpromising.
I’m sorry. THAT was a RETARD move yesterday, and we the shareholders are paying the price today.
And before any Mel apologists say “BUT HE BOUGHT 2 MILLION $ worth of SHARES JUST THE OTHER WEEK!”….
Puh-LEASE. Spare me. The CEO of DELL just bought 100 MILLION DOLLARS WORTH of HIS companies stock.
Friggin…
I agree. Mel absolutely screwed up. Whoever the lazy son of a bitch was who said “just use 2 million as an estimate” needs to be fired immediately.
Even I can figure out the current run rate is higher than that. The whole presentation was innacurate. Right down to the penetration rates. They are going to be near 60% and the company comes out and says they are targeting 50%?
Nothing was factually correct. As Stifel noted it did not “jive.”
If this is what we can expect from the new management team we are all in trouble.
Does the October 6th release of ala carte packaging coincide with 3Q reporting?
LOL…Brandon…I’d laugh if I wasn’t invested. Actually I am laughing at the surreal absurdity of it all.
You’re SO right! It’s so crazy that Mel…OUR FRIGGIN CEO is now feeding the shorts the RED MEAT they usually make up themselves.
Talk about bizarre. I am still shaking my head.
I mean with all the uncertainty and made up shit about this stock…WHY did MEL throw more grease on the fire when you KNOW he doesn’t even believe the numbers he gave.
Even the analysts are shaking their heads in disbelief.
Does Mel think we can read between the lines or read his mind? NO…they are going to take his official word and run with it. And yesterdays words were a FRIGGIN gift to the shorts.
HOW MANY FRIGGIN TIMES WILL MEL THROW US UNDER THE BUS?!!! He’s turning into Cramer with a friggin wig and big chicklet teeth!
OMFG! I”m actually laughing right now….and I am FULLY invested.
MEL! WTF are you smoking? The merger was DONE. This is your turn to let LOOSE for once and BE the cheerleader and champion of this stock. I don’t want lies…but SHOW SOME FRIGGIN ENERGY and for GODS sake STOP UNDERPROMISING SO FRIGGIN MUCH! This stock has been beaten down SO MUCH you don’t HAVE TO!
I am still shaking my head in disbelief! LOL. Somebody has GOT TO MAKE A MOVIE ABOUT THIS.
He said he did not want to do it, but Mel implied that he holds sufficient personal wealth to lend SIRIXM the money. Maybe Mel and/or one of his pals will pony up the cash to do it. Maybe Mel really is prepared to put his money where his mouth is. Obviously, Mel screwed the pooch with his speech yesterday. He’s gonna have to act fast (again). He’s been lookin’ for love in all the wrong places.
Mel was pissed off yesterday. He will be more angry today. Somebody was shopping for a friendly judge to quash the merger. I’m sure that is true, but those words (and many other words) were the words of an angry man – mugged by Cramer and GS.
Meanwhile watch all the weak hands fold. Look at the stinking volume! Buy high, sell low, the big boys scoop it up. That’s the way to get rid of unsophisticated retail holders.
Yeah, but horsecock…how low before the “big boys” switch tactics? All they’ve been doing is destroying the stock. It gets to the point of when is enough enough? Do they want this to go to ZERO? How would that help them if they intend to go long after they shake everyone out? They are flirting with disaster if you ask me.
Or is it that they just intend to short this company into bancrupcy and then just walk away?
Your article concludes with “Should the company announce a resolution to their debt issues, the biggest overhang can be removed from the stock.”
Should that happen, the price will gap up upon open and the current share prices will be history.
It’s funny how my track record with ALL other stocks is great…and yet with Sirius I can’t seem to win for losing. With other stocks I watch, establish a bottom and buy….then later sell. And I’ve done well.
But with Sirius…WITHOUT fail….EVERY SINGLE time I BUY it goes down. And thats after it drops HUGE.
So far I’ve “averaged down” 5 times after a drop. And EVERY time, including TODAY…LOL…it’s dropped almost IMMEDIATELY after I’ve bought. It’s FRIGGIN HILARIOUS.
I should pull a GEORGE COSTANZA and just do the EXACT OPPOSITE from now on when it comes to Sirius.
LOL. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!
friggin,
I’ve been in and out of this stock for years … in the past i kept buying every time the thing dropped thinking this’ll be the last drop 🙂 Then suddenly one day I’m looking at a $9 stock. So I’ve made money over the years – it just takes patience.
Friggin,
You and I may as well been the same person, but I’ve finally thrown in towel. Be careful – see my post I just left under the Stiefel Nicholas article just below.
Good Luck because I have had the same passion for last 5 years also.
Disgusted and done, but weight is lifted for now.
I don’t know. Where is a turning point still in a safe zone? 50 cents? Where is your stop loss? It takes brass balls to hang on. Many are not willing to or cannot financially manage to hold. That’s the way the market works. You know this.
How much more poorly would that presentation have been if Mel were intentionally and blatently throwing the game? If Mel stood up there and acted like a nutcase, would we be in a worse predicament? It might have generated some excitement.
I don’t think he did, but I am unsophisticated and disconnected. I I wish I had done what Brandon did.
I think Mel is now going to have to get some financing before the end of the year. Maybe he has something in the works.
True or not, Mel strongly implied yesterday that they were close to reaching an agreement to do a bank term loan of 2-3 years to refinance the $300 million due in February, and close also to extending the term on the XM bank revolving credit due in the Spring. It seems most of the analyst reports today indicate they saw the 8K, but didn’t listen to what Mel said about the financing.
sounds like an unsophisticated investor shakeout to me
Patience is running thin my friend. This stock got it’s first sub only 6 years ago. Before that, if thats when you were in it, it was a total spec play during the volatile dot com bubble days.
TODAY we have nearly 20 million subs…it’s CRAZY.
I’ve been in this stock LONG enough to be called patient(since 2005)….nearly 4 years now. And in that time it has gone nothing but down.
I’m long and strong…but this is RIDICULOUS.
On a side note, is anyone watching CNBC right now? NFL commentator Howie Long was just on talking about how SPRINT offers FREE NFL coverage of EVERY GAME.
Will this hurt Sirius?
And WHEN THE FUCK WILL SIRIUS come out with a commercial promoting the NFL and the FACT that they’ve MERGED with XM???
I mean it seems the ONLY people who KNOW are CURRENT subscribers….and THAT ain’t gonna cut it!
Mel poo poos ridiculously poo poos the ipod yesterday saying he only wants deals that give shareholders value! But tell me, WHAT is MORE important right now then SPREADING the word that the radio companies have merged and offer a TON of GREAT STUFF???
I bet if you stopped an average joe in the street, they wouldn’t KNOW who Sirius or XM were let alone that they MERGED!
Mel has to stop preaching to the converted and reach out to NEW people.
All I have to say is that he BETTER have a tv commercial lined up for the October 6th launch of new radios and BEST OF OPTIONS.
Hey JB…with ALL due respect, I am SO TIRED of hearing that the price drop is a “SHAKE OUT” of the unsophisticated investor.
They said that when it dropped to below $5, then $3, then $2, then $1…and NOW BELOW $1?????
Gimme a break. This excuse doesn’t wash anymore.
All the unsophisticated investors are LONG gone and wiped out.
Any new ones are so inconsequential as to be meaningless.
No…this is the systematic attempt to DESTROY a company completely. Plain and simple.
I’m unsophisticated as hell and I still have several thousand shares. I had XM shares too. My ass is killing me.
Insofar as the FEB 09 $300M in converts go
Mel implied (at about the 16 Min timeframe
of the CC) that Sirius would pay that off
with a combination of 3 year bank loan and
cash on hand.
So they don’t even need to borrow the full
$300 Mil to achieve that financing.
Mel will get some financing right quick. He wouldn’t be placing such urgency, giving such credence to naysayers if he didn’t have something in the works. Mel would be the hero of Wall St. if he did pony up his own cash.
What seasoned executive would think out loud like Mel did, exposing/legitimizing his perceived and real weaknesses to his enemies, if he did not have a plan ready to execute?
Eye of the tiger, baby. Eye of the tiger.
WL-
They also have 400 million XM debt due in May and another 400M XM converts in Dec ’09.
I’m almost convinced they will not get the financing without further converts and dilution.
It seems like a run on the stock, similar to the financials. The pressure of the stock price being so low can cripple their ability to get lending.
I personally can’t risk it anymore. After 5 years I’m not taking it to .50 or zero. I’m even pissed I could not even get out at above $ 1.00 this morning because I waited too long.
Hey Horse…I have moments of enthusiasm too…but not now.
I’m a LONG who acts like a cynical short now…in that I don’t toot the Sirius horn anymore and I QUESTION EVERYTHING I HEAR that pumps the stock.
Yes…I want to see it go up. But when I hear anything positive now, it comes across as wishful thinking, and we don’t need that shit right now.
Like if that Cayman dude calls into SiriusBuzz radio this week, we should all SPEAK UP this time. I remember a couple of weeks ago when he called in, and everyone fell in love with his accent like it MADE HIM AN AUTHORITY or something. I kept warning people in the chat room that if he had had a thick BROOKLYN accent, NO ONE WOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM SERIOUSLY.
And look what happened. The first red flag was when he said he was calling from the Caymans but the area code didn’t match. Then he starts talking about his “FRIEND” at Goldman Sachs “JONESY” who was told to STOP SHORTING and START BUYING. Mr Cayman then had ANOTHER “FRIEND” from a HEDGE FUND who was told the same thing. And LASTLY Mr Cayman himself said he PERSONALLY just bought $500,000 worth and was going to pick up MORE the next day. DING DING DING!! DANGER! DANGER!
I remember the BULLSHIT alarm was going off big time during the call. And I tried to warn people. But he had everyone under his spell.
What REALLY got me was when he added the INSULT “YOU’RE ALL A BUNCH OF FOOLS if YOU DON’T START BUYING!”
And what happened the next day? We began our plunge to where we are now. We WERE in the $1.40 range. And NOW? We are BELOW a FRIGGIN DOLLAR!!!!!
Moral of the story?
Believe in the company by all means. BUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STOCK….DO NOT….I REPEAT DO NOT BELIEVE THE HYPE.
UNTIL this company PROVES a steady PROFIT OVER MANY MANY QUARTERS, the SHORTS will be in CONTROL.
SO BETWEEN now and then QUESTION EVERYTHING you hear!!! It doesn’t make you a basher! If you are LONG you are LONG…you BELIEVE in the company.
But for the forseeable future, the SHORTS are going to use the LURE OF SHORT TERM UPSIDE to HOOK the GREEDY.
The sooner you realize this the better. Trust me, I’ve fallen for it 5 separate times as I’ve averaged down.
But I’ve learned my lesson. No more. So lets continue believing in the company, but tamp down the pumping a bit ok?
Investor:
Did you listen to the CC
Mel said:
FEB 09 converts ($300m) will be resolved
with combination bank loan and cash on hand.,
MAY 09 XM $400M – will be resolved with extension of current loan and they have
already been in discussions to achieve this
(NO DILUTION)
DEC 09 will be resolved during mid 2009 and
will probably also be bank loan/notes.
(NO DILUTION)
WL –
I listened and believe this is his intentions, but his body language could be felt through the computer. He tempered expectations, but I have a bad feeling that I have had for some time. With the stock breaking under a $1, it could easily fall to .50 in a blink if no announcement of a new loan shortly.
I personally can’t risk anymore. It all depends on how much you have in it, how much you can afford to lose, etc.
I think if the stock was more positive and above 1.50, you can get a loan on better terms, but the sharks are starting to swarm.
So I know what Mel said, but he seemed almost defeated and the market doesn’t believe his tempered optimism, if you could call it that. Seems like his adrenaline ran out.
I don’t believe their will be a recovery in financial markets/housing/car sales & overall credit for a few years & this is where I believe the demise of Sirius is because of their debt load.
Just an honest opinion of someone who has finally given up until this crisis is resolved one way or another. I may miss the raection of resolution on upside, but risk is way too great.
Under $ 1 is disatrous, could lead to talk of delisting if it can’t close above and hold.
Investor…I agree…but to say that the Sharks are STARTING to circle is alittle absurd. WHERE HAVE YOU BEEN? The sharks have been circling for the last 3 years my friend. Nibbling and biting and chomping EVERY DAMN CHANCE THEY GOT.
They LOVED the negative LIMBO of uncertainty that was the MERGER DELAY for 18 months….and they are LOVING the debt issue in the CURRENTLY HORRIBLE ECONOMY. It gives them a WHOLE new deck of cards to play the FEAR GAME with.
I can’t get over the ROTTEN luck Sirius CONTINUALLY finds itself in. I mean imagine IF the merger was APPROVED in EARLY 2007 like it SHOULD have been. Under those economic conditions, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
But as it so happened, the merger was delayed and the approval dropped us in the middle of economic hell FULL OF FEAR and doubt. So Sirius is not going to get an OUNCE of slack from anyone.
It TOTALLY sucks….but it is what it is.
I find it amazing to read some of the posts here. We got here not by anything Mel did or didn’t do, We got here because investing had turned into a buy today , better see a gain tomorrow. Folks, It doesn’t work that way. Im sure the frustration you heard in Mels voice yesterday was from the realization that as back in the old days, gains will come from fundamentals, not day trading. Real investors have seen this as an opportunity and have added even though they had gotten burned previously by buying only to watch it drop. Nobody even Warren Buffet can pick the top OR the bottom. If you want to invest, do it for the long haul, not the short term. Many that were either stopped out or sold will one day say I could have bought Sirius for 90 cents one day. In the blink of an eye financing could be announced and those that sold would be left behind. You can never predict what could happen. All I know is that Mel Karmazin has been here before and will lead this company to profitability, like it or not. Those that held tight will be a small minority true, But they will reap the best rewards. Sirius has 100% of all cars and trucks in this country and the install rate goes up with each model. Standardization is just around the corner. I for one am unhappy with the PPS but I am an investor and I look to the future. Good luck to all and your families.
Investor, you’re opinions are appreciated.
I however got a different take from Mel’s tone
yesterday. Mel is a winner ,acknowledged at the best Radio EX in the business. Winners
have huge amounts of pride, Mel is no exception.
He was pushed into a corner during the merger
closing week and was forced to accept a deal
he never would have accepted under normal terms.
His tone changed yesterday when he started talking about the financing and it sounded like
he was talking more to the HEDGE FUNDS and
‘OTHER’ parties who have been pushing him
to accept their terms for future financing.
He began getting defensive and that came off
as ‘losing it’
I hope he acts quickly to get this financing
done and over with. It will lift a huge cloud
from SIRIUS future prospects.
Friggin –
I agree 100% the merger being delayed 7 months extra is what cost an absurd amount of $ and put Sirius and all of us in this position.
I did not want to be in this stock or stock market as a whole in 2009, but waiting for merger decision that was supposedly imminent in Dec 2007 by Robert Pecker, made me sit and wait and wait and wait & hope & hope.
Even the day after approval I sat by my computer with my finger on sell button, but it happenned to fast & now this.
If Mel knew it would have taken so long, he would not have merged, just let XM go under. It’s their additional debt & what he had to do to get merger through that has wrecked the stock.
But that’s history and this is where we are.
Is it over for the downward spiral? If it goes up from here and I lose out, then I’m the laughing stock I guess. But I’m devastated and can’t take anymore losses.
Everyday there is hope when it closes off it’s lows that the next day might be brighter and then you get the shaft – over & over & over….
I hear you Investor. And I am torn. Once again that little voice is chiming in with “THIS STOCK CAN’T POSSIBLY GO ANY LOWER!”
And yet…HOW MANY TIMES have I heard that little voice and ignored it….only to realize it was right.
So you’re right. HERE we ARE. In the UBELIEVABLE INCONCEIVABLE 90 cent range….and I think to myself….IT CAN’T POSSIBLY GO LOWER! Thoughts of 80, 70, 60 and 50 cent pop into my head and are instantly waived away as ABSURD.
But they keep buzzing back. COULD it? COULD it POSSIBLY go lower??
I briefly kick myself for not having the forsight to cash out at $1.20….HECK….even $1.14. But back then I SCOFFED that it couldn’t POSSIBLY go lower. LOL.
So yeah….here I am again….saying the same thing only with numbers 20% lower…
frigginregan,
I have about 24000 shares and averaged it down to about 1.45
All along people have been saying that the big boys have been driving this down to get our shares.
The basic plan is still the same.
Mel said they will show a growth in profits. What has changed ?
Might take a little longer but if your long whats the difference.
I will take whatever hit this stock takes.
I love the product.
Mel is human and Like you and I,
I believe he has had enough with the BS.
I believe even if he gave a speech with higher numbers that it would not have made a bit of difference.
I tend to believe that this will make him fight harder to secure the financing needed hopefully with better numbers.
I can only hope the best for us all.
I’ll average it down to a dollar if thats what it takes.
I’m sticking with it.
I am right with you WJDJFD….I TOTALLY BELIEVE in the product…
BUT….here are my concerns. We have less than 5 months before the Feb debt is due.
What if the credit market gets worse and worse between now and then? The fact IS Mel HAS to refinance the debt by then. And I’m AFRAID he may be FORCED into another UGLY deal closer like when he closed the merger. And the funny thing is HE DIDN’T HAVE to close the merger then. He said he was forced to…but in reality it WAS a choice.
But the thing with the DEBT due in FEB…is that he DOESN’T have a CHOICE….it’s DUE in FEBRUARY…no ifs ands or buts. So in theory, if the economy gets worse….this refinancing could get EVEN UGLIER.
Which brings to mind the OTHER worries I have…the dreaded reverse split and of course the even WORSE BK possibility.
Everyone, myself included doesn’t see that happening. But no one saw the UGLY merger close happening the way it did either.
So yeah….I am LONG….but NERVOUS. It’s not the kind of nervous I felt during the merger approval process. That was only a question of WILL it be approved or not? It was more exciting. After all, it was widely assumed that if the merger got denied, Sirius was in the MUCH better position of the two companies.
No…NOW is something much worse and more foreboding. Now its a nervousness that really scares me, because it could mean the TOTAL annihilation of shareholders. THATS YOU and ME.
I listened again to, 3rd time, Mel’s CC. He said the 2008 numbers are “very, very conservative and on that same thought we just added the same 2 million to 2008 numbers for 09′” Listen again at 8:29 minutes. He was being sarcastic.
Listen to the bank deal at 14:50 minutes.
And at the end he says again that the numbers are discounted.
I don’t agree with his approach to the CC but there is really not much negativity other than his overall delivery of the CC. I feel the analysts, other than Citi, got it wrong and jumped the gun.
I’d like to know who just bought 3 million shares around 2:15 EST when no one has really touched (bought) it all day.
What I feel Mel is saying about 09′ is…we will have at the very least an additional 2 million subs. This is not his final forecast. We could have 2.5 to 3.5 additional subs for all we know. His CC was misinterpreted by everyone but Citi.
Yeah, but yesterday wasn’t the time to be VAGUE or SARCASTIC.
Mel was RETARDED yesterday. No two ways about it.
I mean…WHY THE FUCK did he say the numbers were VERY VERY CONSERVATIVE?????
Couldn’t he have left out the TWO “VERYS”? and just given a CONSERVATIVE outlook? LOL. Seriously! There was absolutely NO reason for him to DOWNPLAY his outlook to the extent he did.
I’m still shaking my head at his stupidity. His first BIG conference post merger and he screwed up BIG TIME and all but handed the shorts MORE RED MEAT to chew on. Red Meat that he DIDN’T HAVE TO OFFER THEM.
He could have EASILY given a MORE HONEST and ENTHUSIASTIC guidance. It boggles my mind that he did what he did.
He dropped the ball, and he better pick it back up on October 6th when they launch the BEST OF.
ALL eyes are watching him.
Friggen,
I totally agree. I have a call into IR. Some guy Hooper is suppose to call me back. Blalock is out of town. We need further clarification from Sirius on those 2009 numbers. We all need to call IR and express our disappointment with Mel’s CC.
Reading between the lines of the speech.
I believe that he didn’t like the rates being presented to him and he would continue to research his options.
But if all else failed that he would loan out the money himself with a little help from his friends. But he would prefer not to.
I still believe he will get the job done.
God forbit the manufacturers lower projections again & this is where my biggest fear is coming from.
Hearing more and more rumblings about people not being approved for loans, leases.
They are even at risk of bankrupcy for OEM’s without getting a 50 billion loan from gov’t.
Any additional slowdown in OEM and retail & I’m not sure Mel could close financing without converts & dilution.
The writing seems like its on the wall for the economy. Thinking 2009 could actually be worse for overall economy even though housing may, just may stabilize to a degree.
Don’t forget there are alot of people you listen to on the business channels that have an agenda and looking for an out and must be pumpers or say we’re at a bottom.
I’m disgusted & want so much to be in this stock and take a nice ride back up, but where is the positive news, momentum, growth. With each so called positive step, its obliteration.
I might have risked getting in under $ 1.00 if I had gotten out at 1.40, but can’t take anymore downside.
It feels like more shoes to drop is coming. What a catastrophe for myself and others happenned here.
Now I know why some people are CONTRARIANS….because you just can’t BELIEVE ANYTHING you see on tv or read online.
September 10th, 2008 at 3:23 pm Investor Says:
God forbit the manufacturers lower projections again & this is where my biggest fear is coming from.
******
If you have sold your position like you said you did, it seems to me that your BIGGEST FEAR would likely be some other issue about some other stock you may hold.
You are ignoring many positive significant signs. A retail launch in early October with Ala Carte receivers, Best of programming, and a new XM wearable device with plenty of time for product promotions for the Holiday gift-giving season.
Mel may finance the Feb convert deal with his own money.
Something smells fishy about some investors around here. I ain’t naming names.
How can Mel finance 400 million dollars with his OWN money? He’s not THAT well off….at least I don’t think he is.
Well I agree with Brandon that whoever provided Mel with his subscriber numbers should be fired. Now I hope it wasn’t Mel. I never thought we would be able to buy shares at these prices.
Mel and our SP are definitely getting beat up for under estimating future performance. No matter how I do the numbers for subscribers, the run rates don’t come up to 19.5 M by the end of the year and 21.5M at the end of 2009.
Even with 13 million cars being sold next year, which is way low and will be more like 15 M, and a 50% penetration, everyone thinks more like 60%, and then a 50% take rate to sign new subscribers, you get. 13M/2= 6.5 M cars and the 6.5M/2 = 3.25M new subscribers. Mel forecast only 2M from the OEM channel.
No Second Hand Car subs, Nor Retail Subs. My number is 1.25M more than he projected. It just doesn’t figure and I am being conservative. WTF is going on here????
I don’t know what he’s worth. I’d guess at least 200 million. I know a retired car dealer worth 80 million.
after you all sell (if you have not already), who is left to sell? I have never seen as much pessimism here or on the Yahoo boards by true believers ever. Usually, the most pessimism is by bashers, but now the pessimism is by disillutioned longs. I bought more at $0.96 today. Yesterday, I bought more at $1.10, with the understanding that it might (even likely might) drop below $1.00 today. Today’s purchase was 50% larger in number of shares than yesterday’s purchase. Where’s the bottom, nobody knows….however, if I buy again at $0.80 if it gets there (I don’t think it will, but assuming it does), I keep averaging down, and when the announcement comes that the financing has been secured, I am ready for the pop. I will either lose a lot of money or make a ton of money. I rather it be the later. However, after seeing and hearing all this carnage, who is realy left to sell? The institutions are stuck, they can’t get out without good news, because of the number of shares they have. Retail is either panicking like you all (and selling right now) or stubborn like me (and buying or holding their positions to the end). Might go lower; however, I see the blood and carnage in the streets right now….
horsecork, I was ready to say something like that myself. I know Mel was not 200% over estimating and said that there would be some challenges But the doom and gloom that I have seen hear is unbelievable. It is like you guys are doing the same thing Cramer and Mark W. are. Thats right pick out the 1 or maybe 2 (depending on how you look at what Mel said) things Mel said and skip over the multitude of good things.
As to the rest of you, dont worry I have been hear before (.97 a share) and back then, I never thought I would have been able to sell most of those share for between 5 and 8 in just a few years time. I am not worried, they have been at this level and way lower before, for some time and did not go bankrupt. I will leave you with this, back then, I know I was not as confident that the companies had a future, as I am now.
Shark…I don’t think it’s pessimism as much as a dose of HEALTHY CYNICISM.
I don’t think longs have lost faith in the company…it’s just that they are TIRED of BULLSHIT predictions. Right now, and for the foreseeable future, Sirius Stock is at the MERCY of the shorts who play the PUMP and DUMP game.
Case in point, that DUDE from the “CAYMANS” who called in SiriusBuzz radio the other week. There is NO DOUBT in my mind that he was a MANIPULATING SHORT of the highest order. He sucked people in with his foreign accent and preyed upon the LONGS hopeful side.
I TRIED to warn people in the chat room pointing out that if he had had a THICK BROOKLYN accent NO ONE would have taken his claims seriously. But they WANTED to believe and were suckered in.
Again, my point is that it’s not PESSIMISM, but a HEALTHY CYNICISM that is needed. We LONGS have to QUESTION AND BE SKEPTICAL of EVERYTHING WE HEAR, and have to GUARD against OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC CLAIMS.
It doesn’t me I think we should TRASH the stock, or don’t believe in the company. We wouldn’t be in it if we didn’t.
But the truth is people are angry. Like you, I’ve been averaging down….and LONG term I have tremendous confidence. But I’m SORRY….being SUPER gung ho short term is retarded.
And being angry at Mel for yesterdays handling of the CC is a VALID criticism.
cos1000, not to get to picky but there is churn If you include that it would almost eat al those OEM subs up.
Horsecork-
This was my only investment which was my biggest mistake and don’t have an agenda, if that’s what you think.
Everything you say is already noted, built in to projections. I agree if take rates on best of & ala cart, then this could help.
There has been a collapse of our financial system, lending and OEM’s keep reporting bad #’s and are doing alot of incentives, so I feel that this is a big risk if they are being too optimistic.
I read that they need 50 billion in loans from the gov’t to sustain them through the downturn, so there is a good possibilty that the 14 million cars manufactured could come down again.
Do you think I’m happy I had to give in & get out this a.m. when there is a part of me that never wants to give up & hopes for the financing deal to be announced & prop the stock back up ?
If it takes weeks more, where will it be ? Will it be enough ? Then there is May debt. I’m sick of this not knowing if they could survive. I thought at least with merger approved, this was taken out of the equation, but not in my eyes anymore.
The stock price is reflecting the risk and the more it drops the higher the risk is what markets are telling. I did not do this !
Reason I’m posting so much is because I’m venting & would like someone to give me valid reasons why I’m wrong, why I should not be out, why I should let the balance ride.
cos1000, 19.5 million X 1.67% (avg. selfpaying churn) = 325,000 a month X 12 = 3.9 million lost for the year.