Sirius XM In Trouble Again
It is with great distress that I put pen to paper, or in this case fingers to keyboard. Sometimes people believe that SiriusBuzz is SiriusPump. Nothing could be further from the truth and the buzz right now, is chapter 11. In a filing with the SEC, Sirius XM states:
- In the event such uncertainties remain unresolved, management anticipates that KPMG LLP’s auditors’ report relative to the Company’s 2008 consolidated financial statements will contain an explanatory paragraph indicating substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
- … the inclusion of such a paragraph by KPMG LLP would result in a default under certain indebtedness of the Company, XM Holdings and XM Satellite Radio Inc. (“XM Inc.”) which defaults, if not cured or waived prior to the expiration of the applicable grace period, would result in an event of default under other indebtedness of the Company, XM Holdings and XM Inc. Such events of default, if they occur, provide the lenders the right to demand all amounts due under the respective agreements immediately due and payable.
In a nutshell, unless Sirius XM retires its May debt prior to its 10K being released, its only choice is Chapter 11. A simple statement of potential default is reason to cause a default in this case.
A further problem develops as we learn that that company itself is examining whether it makes sense to continue operations under such economic circumstances. All of this had been relative to operational results as of December 31,2008.
Management has not yet completed its evaluation as to whether substantial doubt exists relative to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time. A significant element of that evaluation relates to uncertainties associated with funding of amounts stipulated in the aforementioned Investment Agreements. These uncertainties may not be resolved by the time the Company files its Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Unfortunately, auto sales data for the first two months of Q1 2009 shows that it is even more likely that the company will come to the conclusion that it cannot continue operations under its current debt and contractual obligations. A 9.1 million run rate and 1.7% churn rate equal a net loss of nearly 2 million subscribers in 2009 by my calculations, which have been heavily challenged in the SiriusBuzz forums.
I have used the following assumptions in my calculations:
9.1 million auto sold times 50 % penetration rate = 4,550,000 new installations.
4,550,000 new installations times 50% penetration (currently running below that) = 2,275,000 new oem subscribers.
21,000,000 subscribers times 1.7 % monthly churn = 4,284,000 deactivated subscribers.
4,284,000 – 2,275,000 = 2,009,000 subscribers to be lost in 2009
As for any talk of why Malone would have stepped in. The answer may be as simple as intending to keep the assets out of the hands of Charles Ergen, so that some form of Sirius might emerge after bankruptcy.
Position: Long Sirius XM
SO, does this mean you are no long “LONG”?
Good Evening,
Thank you for the added insight but I really think that there is nothing new in your thoughtful note. Besides at this point, almost all investors in Sirius (myself included) realize that holding or adding to our sirius investments is a once in a lifetime “Hail-Mary”.
Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE the product and I have 3 subs. But we’re in a perfect storm here with no place to hide….. WHAT A RUSH!!!!
this story is a half hour old at this point. Why isn’t the stock tanking if this is accurate.
excellent point!
I just checked nasdaq after-hours and the stock price is holding steady…
Thats because Most know crap when they see it. Hey can anyone just put whatever article they want up. I mean my god what about fact checking, doesn’t anything like that happen here.
Once again, you’re not figuring churn properly.
If you take a fully loaded churn of 2.2% and an OEM penetration of 55% then the sub numbers are virtually break even with a 9.1 mil run rate. And I think 9.1 is exceptionally pessimistic. You also fail to account for ANY retail adds. Losing two million subs this year would be brutal, but based on the current numbers, it ain’t happenin.
OMG you really are not that stupid are you. I thought after I corrected your churn rate and numbers before on the last article you put out, that it was just a mistake. That was my mistake, you are that dumb.
Great. If that’s the case, isn’t Mel going to be in legal trouble since he turned down an offer last year from dish for a $1.38 a share buyout?
Whatever. I just hope this insanity ends soon. I’m out over 30 grand.
I would like to see source on that because while everyone keeps saying it I have yet to see one article about Charles willing to pay 1.37 or is it now 1.38. Whats next 2.5.
“Management has not yet completed its evaluation as to whether substantial doubt exists relative to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time.”
This is something they’re required to do in good times or bad ones, and they must disclose if they believe such doubt does exist. It doesn’t mean they’re considering calling it quits and going home.
if they bancrupt just xm holdings does that wipe out sirius share.like the other article you wrote brandon,please reply alot of peoples savings is counting on the right advice
Why would you want advice from someone who can come up with the ridiculous calculation of a 2 million sub loss? I guess Brandon sold his shares and has a buy at .05 cents.
This is an outrageous interpretation of the company’s 12b-25… This company is not heading for BK and you Sir are simply being a Sensationalist….
it could be why they delayed the 4q report–So they can either obtain financing or bak deferral–or else tell it like it is on march 17
Hey or it just could be that it is just as the company says it is. Which was that because of all the refinancing that has gone on and worked on that they have not had enough time to work on the 10-Q.
Listen. I linked to the forums and even made it clear that there were plenty of people who disagreed with it. As a journalist, I have a responsibility to report facts that the company itself felt were important enough to include in its filing.
Brandon, Calling yourself a journalist is like calling Hitler a saint. You are nothing more than a loser and have already bailed on Sirius stock once before. You need to ride off in the sunset as you will be wrong about this story too. Why Tyler ever brought you on board defies all logic! Take a frigging Hike Brandon!
Reporting the facts from Monday’s filing is one thing, but misrepresenting projected sub numbers for 2009 and jumping to wild conclusions about imminent bankruptcy is hardly journalism.
Ok then wouldn’t it be prudent to have exactly what the company said about why they postponed the 10-K or is that not your “responsibility”.
Where is your updated disclaimer? Did you sell all or your shares or are you holding onto stock of a company that you feel is destined to file bankruptcy?
Your a journalist and I am the Wizard of Oz
How dare you call yourself a journalist when you can say they will lose 2 million subs in 2009. Let’s see how you got to this # and you will be exposed for not being able to even use a calculator.
Can’t we all just get along??
:>)
Brandon,
You keep doing your thing!!
We will at times agree and at times disagree…
As negative as I am, let me say that this is pure speculation. Did you just shorted the stock ? We all know that BK never left the table.
Still, if anyone decides to add to this position, do so below .13. If this issue survives, it will go up (it does not have anywhere else to run).
Keep in mind, BK can’t get any more real than this.
Nothing has changed in the last 4 weeks. If SIRI was going to go BK they would have already. No point in dragging it out. Mel and current management have a large amount of shares. They are not giving up until they have to. Believe Mel has to wrap up all the issues by the 17th and I think he will. Malone put the “ongoing clause” in to give Mel leverage. We still do not know who owns that debt.
“Listen. I linked to the forums and even made it clear that there were plenty of people who disagreed with it.”
Is it fair to say that YOU agree with it, Brandon?
Seems to me that everything “negative” in the SEC filing is there because it legally has to be. Let’s face it, we all know Sirius is in BAD shape. For them not to put those statements in would be illegal. This is just Lawyer stuff. The Liberty deal is a good thing, but it in no way gets Sirius off the hook completely. But in no way does it mean bankrupcy is just around the bend, either.
“Such events of default, if they occur, provide the lenders the right to demand all amounts due under the respective agreements immediately due and payable.” – – – this doesn’t mean the lenders WILL demand all amounts due. There’s more to gain for nearly everyone if Sirius does not go bankrupt. We can only wait and see, but as for me I am still in.
And here I thought Hartlieb was the nutjob on this board…Well folks…Brandon has that loser beat!
and, I was only going to compare him to the MotleyFools….Kenster think you are right here! I sort of understand where Hartlieb is coming from (his logic while understandable, albeit, is totally wacked), but I have never understood Brandon’s logic period!
I can guarentee the company will lose much more than 2 million subs in 2009 if they file for chapter 11. I’ll be ditching five myself!
Brandon,
I think your article is very negative. It has been known for some time that Siri-XM has had a filing being prepared for bankruptcy and that it was probably being used as a negotiating ploy.
The deteriorating new car numbers does not necessarily mean a serious loss of revenue. Siri-XM has been getting additional premiums for life services and it is expected that substantive synergie savings would be made following the merger. Thus it is expected that some numbers might be down but if new subs can be sourced for other services such as cellphones, i-phones, internet services with Liberty Media then the revenues might be going up at the moment and possibly significantly throughout 2009.
Why have you not mentioned these other potential sources of revenue??
You have been very negative in previous articles and I think you are jumping to conclusions without factual substance.
Brandon, you only have yourself to blame for this. On what would basically could be considered a boiler plate statement, you come up with this. Ok so why is it that noone (MSM) else has read this and said a word. I’ll tell you why because it gos against everything Maffis from Liberty has said and it gos against everything the company has said about the deal and the reason for the delay.
Brandon,
Why don’t you go “write” for The Fool. You’re no better than 24/7WS Doug M, Slick Rick, Weinkes, et al the haters. You call this responsible journalism? I could care less about your personal opinon, but now you’ve passed it off as accurate reporting. You are not qualified to make the assumptions you have. What are your sources within the negotiations or “close to the situation”? I know the answer: cos1000. You corrupted his diligent attempt at breaking down a filing and you yelled fire in a dark theater. You incited a riot Brandon. That’s all you’ve done. If you call your personal interpretations of an SEC filing facts, how can I ever take you seriously again? How will the poor unsuspecting readers at SA feel if they knew your article was based solely on your own conjecture and personal interpretation. Are you a Securities Lawyer? Now I see what I’ve been reading all this time at SA in your articles..not the news..your opinion. Junk. Thank god I’m here, is all I have to say…to see this happen with my own eyes. Thank you.
Just another crazy & pointless post. If everyone renews their 2nd+ subs before Mar 11th with at least 2yrs, more subs signing up everyday, the iphone app when released by nicemac or sirius xm, the roku set top box according to orbitcast, other internet / wi-fi devices and the discount on radios this week. Contracts are being renegotiated. The company should be able to bring in plenty of revenue right now and the future ahead. Its content at your fingertips with just a turn of the dial.
So you’re still long on Sirius even though you think that they’re about to be bankrupt? Are you recommending that I hold onto my 16420 shares of Sirius that I bought at about 14 cents per share?
Brandon –
We’re calling you out to explain the 2 million subs net loss in 2009 & we want to see the calculations line by line.
To your point. Malone would have known about the churn. Why would he step up to get into immediate BK issues? That is a painful experience.
9.1 million auto sold times 50 % penetration rate = 4,550,000 new installations.
4,550,000 new installations times 50% penetration (currently running below that) = 2,275,000 new oem subscribers.
21,000,000 subscribers times 1.7 % monthly churn = 4,284,000 deactivated subscribers.
4,284,000 – 2,275,000 = 2,009,000 subscribers to be lost in 2009
Disclaimer! Still long? C’mon where is your journalistic integrity???
Firstly, you are using 50%, when it is likely 55% penetration, so now I start with 5,005,000 at let’s say 50% take rate (what you meant) = 2.5 M rounding.
You now start with 21 million for your churn when they only likely have 19.3 at most, so let’s say avg 20 M at churn rate of 1.7%/month = 4 M churning out.
Now they add 2 – 2.5 M Gross at retail across the year. You are forgetting that the loss in retail you are talking about is already in the churn figures.
So I’m looking at 500k to 1M adds in a horrendous market.
Of course you get 2 M loss since you are missing retail adds. The churn is not just OEM.
This is an increase of 500K
Brandon, I’ve posted the error in your math before (as many others have also). The 1.7% churn is NOT for the gross number of subs, just the self-paying subs which is some 3 million less than the gross now at ~19 million subs.
Next you assume 21 mil subs . . . . how can you justify using 21 mil subs when you already presuppose a loss of 2 mil subs for the year?! This is higher than the EOY guidance from way back in December! Given the implosion of auto sales this will likely be reduced (if they provide guidance at all in this round) to the 20.2 mil range. Bottom line; you can’t presuppose a 2 mil decrease in subs and then turn around and use a 2 mil increase to calculate that number!
And this these are EOY estimates. To get an accurate number for the whole year you should use and average for the year – based on your own figures this should be 19.1 million – 2 mil/2 = 18.1 million. I’d say the average is more like 19.6 million (based on the currently estimated 19.1 million after Q4 and guidance for 20.2 mill in 2009).
SO, with 19.6-3=16.6 million estimated self-paying subs a 1.7% churn yields 3.386 mil lost subs.
3,386,000 – 2,275,000 = 1,111,000 subscribers to be potentially lost in 2009 from self-paying subs. You still have to add in new retail subs which are pretty much all self-paying. 1,111,000 retail, rental, internet, and used car adds is not unreasonable – it’s likely to be significantly higher even in this economy. Anything more is a net ADD for the year.
http://www.reuters.com/article.....me=topNews
I don’t see Toyota in danger of Bankruptcy. Part of me wishes GM would go under. The other part has an investment in Sirius and don’t think it would be good. But lets face it, why bail-out a company that is archaic, makes bad product, and won’t re-invent itself on its own? All these TARP hungry companies haven’t even expressed an effort or desire to change their mind-set. I guess America itself has to re-invent. Hey I have an idea- its called the new GM Phoenix for 2011.
At least SiriusXM has better content and cost-saving synergies etc. It’s not as bad a company, on the face of things, as GM is.
Brandon,
Its just sad that you chose to write an article like this based on so little research done by you…. You hype the intro with “some people think SiriusBuzz is SiriusPump”, to show us all how you can just as irresponsibly “Bash” the company, as you can find the time to “Pump” the company. You took work presented to you on the Forums of this site and abused it. You have also misrepresented it as your own. Your shameless in your attempt to sensationalize an already difficult situation and for that you will have lost the respect of many….
One thing I’d like to ask anybody is: if GM actually files for BK, will this justify, or make it easier, for SiriusXM to follow? It wouldn’t take a crystal ball to see that Mel Karmazin would have more beforehand information than us what the automaker might do.
On the other hand it would be a terrible time for SiriusXM to file when they are expanding beyond cars and retail. JP Morgan is the only sticky wicket now. March 17…….
I don’t expect anyone to understand. No one hopes I’m wrong more than me. There are actually people who invested partly because of things I have written. I have received thousands of emails from people who blamed me personally for their losses following the merger. They used words like “trusted”, and quite frankly I feel that everyone has the right to know the facts and make their own decisions.
I need to be able to sleep at night. If I’m wrong, then so be it. I hope I am. If I’m not, then I have done the right thing.
what about those fools that sold on the trust in your article today afterhours between 12.6 and 12.9 cents, and stay out for good, and lose the opportunity of any appreciation.
can you sleep knowing you published this sensationalistic alarmist rant?
posting unsubstantiated alarmist negative stuff is just as bad as posting unsubstantiated hyped stuff.
the one does not wash the hand of the other. now you just have two reasons not to sleep well at night.
and of course shark…. I agree.
Today is Thursday, March 5th and you have your epiphany about BK…. I posted this when the extension was filed on March 2nd… Explain you comment that you made then… now
Brandon, I appreciate your efforts in writing this article, but on the day when the company has filed 12b-25, extension, rather than report it’s 10K, I don’t think we can say the threat of bankruptcy has been removed. SXM’s auditor, KPMG, must give the green light as a “going concern” in order for the Malone / Liberty deal to be consummated which as yet they have not. With the auditor’s stamp of approval and the deal consummated the SP will take care of itself. R/S’s from positions of strength, to eliminate dilution and invite the over $5 Investment Crowd to jump in, might be a good strategy in the future, but not now IMO. Until the auditor’s give Malone / Liberty that green light, BK is very much still on the table….
Reply
*
Brandon Matthews says:
March 2, 2009 at 9:15 pm
I, Moody’s & Standard & Poors respectfully disagree.
Brandon writes –
9.1 million auto sold times 50 % penetration rate = 4,550,000 new installations.
4,550,000 new installations times 50% penetration (currently running below that) = 2,275,000 new oem subscribers.
21,000,000 subscribers times 1.7 % monthly churn = 4,284,000 deactivated subscribers.
4,284,000 – 2,275,000 = 2,009,000 subscribers to be lost in 2009
This is absolutely hilarious. I really thought you were a smart guy Brandon. You absolutely refuse to acknowledge even 1 sale of a Sirius or XM radio outside of OEM in your calculations.
Either you have completely lost touch with the basic fundamentals of sat radio – oem AND RETAIL or its possible you became a short.
Are you ever going to address RETAIL Brandon or just ignore it completely?
On February 26th you had an entirely different perspective. This is why I say you are a nutjob and a psychological fruitcake:
“”The OEM numbers should be the easiest to estimate. New car sales for Q4 2008 totaled 2,481,069 units, compared to 3,800,000 in 2007. We can safely assume a modest 50% installation rate which tells us that 1,240,534 cars were sold in the quarter equipped with Satellite Radio. Although most believe the subscriber conversion rate on these units to be approximately 50%, the general economy should weaken this number a bit. Last quarter came in at 47%. My best estimate is that 46% signed up for the service in the latest completed quarter which would bring OEM subs in at a conservative 570,646 new subscribers.
130,037 subscribers will have been lost if churn remains at a historical constant of 1.7%. This would bring the total end of year subscribers to 19,361,520. If we add retail and multiple subscription packages such as the highly cross-promoted “Best Of” packages, the company should easily reach its year end goal of 19,500,000 subscribers.””
https://siriusbuzz.com/looking-ahead-to-4th-quarter-results.php#more-3255
probably a pure coincidence, but isn’t it interesting that brandon posts this article on the very same evening that the bashers come out in full force on the yahoo stock message boards….
where did you get the idea for this article?
OMG, you are talking about that March 2 filing…I had thought you must have read a NEW filing from today.
My bad, I misinterpreted your article to be an analysis of a new filing…wonder how all the other real analysts missed the point you are making…they must be incompetent, right?
I was going to make that same point Shark. Maybe “smart money” is waiting for Brandon to interpret the language in the filing for them. We will probably see mass selling tomorrow. Brandon, you have destroyed your credibility and exposed yourself as an amature.
Bankruptcy?….You said not that long ago that bankruptcy wasn’t even a REMOITE possibility.
From Jan 1
“If you thought the cries that followed the channel consolidation were loud, imagine the bang that would follow a bankruptcy announcement. In my opinion, it is not even a remote possibility.” by B Matthews
While you are definitly entitled to your opinion that you didn’t and perhaps don’t think a bk will happen, when you said it wasn’t a “REMOTE” possibility your credibility was gone.
I am not that worried because I feel that even IF their is a going concern we will get a waiver from lenders so that we can get the loan from Liberty. I cannot see the lenders say do a BK now and they will never get paid 100%..Atleast if they let Siri live on they have a shot at repayment.
Brian
Now that the personal attacks have stopped, does anyone want to talk about the substance of the article?
PS: Former opinions were based on known facts at that time. Analysis of data is done with info that was available at the time the article was written. So enough with former posts.
what specifically about a boilerplate notice of intent to file a late 10K are you referring? do you realize how many companies filed such a filing within a day or two of Siri? talk about reading between the lines for things that are not there.
brandon, please don’t respond to the first question, as it is asked figuratively…I read your article and know what you believe supports your position, but obviously, I and many (read: all) disagree with you.
Yes, next onto the substance of the BK threat. This is the chicken vs egg questionn I posted in the forums. Auditors give the green light only if May debt is extended vs Liberty buys May debt if the Auditors give the green light and JPM debt is extended. Extension of the JPM debt was all but assumed to be matter of course until now – this is after all a revolving facility. Has anything changed to believe otherwise? If not, then the key to this deal falling into place is that now we know that the JPM extension must come before 3/17 (or at least commitment to extend). In a nutshell, show me that there are chances that JPM will not extend and only then is the possibility of BK back on the table.
I too shared the skepticism you now relay the day I learned that Sirius delayed the results; I must preface by saying I commend your admonitions here and foreboding; You do what your heart/mind/soul tells you to do, whether proven right-or-wrong, period; In fact, it wont matter whether you are right-or-wrong. That being said, it’s a land-mine of b/k’s out there. Monacoa Coach tonight! Surival is the new prosperity; I can’t say what Sirius-XM Radio will do upcoming; I do think DTV put too much into this to back-out now. It would make DTV looks foolish to have their investment founder so quickly; But it also would be exusable, if Sirius receives a “going-concern paragraph” in their audit, and can’t get the May debt take-care-of; Personally, I believe that if the Market will rally strong, Siruis-XM Radio will skate; Today’s GM news is about the worst for completing the second-half of the Liberty deal, imo, b/c it really puts-in-jeapordy Sirius’ OEM-centric future; Thing is, Sirius can live with a GM bankruptcy, but having to live with it right now, in this Market, could prove fatal; Sirius Radio is so much more than OEM-installs; DTV could bundle Sirius into the home effectively, and off-shoot a good business-unit; It would require a lot more capital and time on DTV’s behalf…but its potentially very profitable; I think they’ll “go-for-it” if the Market’s rally significantly between now and the 17th; I even think they’ll over-look the going-concern/default clause, if the Markets seem to place a definitive bottom between now and then; But there’s not much time left, and the story could go either way; I would like to reduce my holdings until we get further clarity!
Hang-tough everyone, and please take responsibility for your own investment decisions, not other people’s “authoritative viewpoint”, be that what it may!
GLTA!
Brandon –
You still refuse to acknowledge that there are retail aftermarket gross subs. How could you be taken seriously with your article stating 2 million net sub loss in 2009 ?
Please explain this.
What substance, Brandon? OK, you don’t know…I don’t know…got it. Sirius XM played this game out just 3 weeks ago and BK was miraculously averted. If you have been accused of anything by others, it is that SIRIUSBUZZ is too close to insiders…not necessarily pumping, but manipulating. Slew of positives, slew of negatives. Chuck says ipod app in near term. Mel says financing by March 1st. Brandon calculates subs and you re-calculate subs (both of which, I might add do not account for a multitude of existing variables (ie Best of, Lifetime, and number of subscribers locked in to longterm deals).
Why don’t you do something useful and play out an xm bankruptcy scenario for current siri shareholders? That would be useful information that could be debated and adjusted. Don’t dramatize putting pen to paper about the BK. Tell us what it means to the SIRI common and XM subscribers if XM is reorganized. Tell us why this makes more sense than borrowing $200 m more this week…even at bad terms again.
Mel wants to stay in charge and ‘save’ siri….Bankruptcy means that his last hurrah ended in failure instead of glory and his entire legacy will be summed up in a future jeopardy question….who foolishly merged satellite radio companies prior to the economic meltdown thereby destroying the satrad industry?…Trust me when I tell you these two things.
1. You are probably correct in assuming that the delayed filing was because auditors gave Mel some very specific requests in order to avoid the ‘going concern’ statement.
2. Mel’s Ego is such that he will take a bad loan like part 1 of Malone’s deal with high interest rates, tell everyone that ‘credit markets suck’ and attempt a refi prior to 5/15 with the hope of fending off Malone. Stock will bounce up and down until then and once again, miraculously, refi will take place just in the nick of time.
I confess Brandon, this time you are making a lot of very little. This type of filing is ordinary, and states the obvious for the benefit of shareholders. It also puts some pressure on JPM and UBS to reach the terms of their extension of the 5/09 debt. This is not anything that raises the specter of a BK.
Your assumption on the total reliance on the auto industry to keep SIRI afloat is also extreme. This company has revenues, and the ability, now that they merger is complete, to control its expenses much more tightly. They also have a tiered pricing structure, as well as an expanded Internet subscription base that provides additional revenue streams to weather the storms of 2009.
I wouldn’t trust that internet-based revenue stream. It sounded half-baked from the beginning. Why would any consumer pay a subscription fee for getting streaming audio on the internet with so many FREE providers out there? Siri might just as well offer a subscription-based service that allows consumers to see the moon at night.
Unfortunately your credibility just got slammed. As you see by the responses. YOu were warned your numbers were ridiculous, but I am happy to see you tackled the manipulation aspect. That is more in play here than anything else. Your completely off base on your numbers, and the seriousness of BK. It is even less likely now than in Feb. In fact, there is zero percent chance then, and exactly zero percent chance now.
We dont want to talk about the substance of the article, because the substance was already discredited by many knowledgeable people within the forum. As your your manipulation, I commend your fortitude, and your bravery with publishing that article. It takes a lot of guts, and if nothing else I respect you. Your other article is just wrong. And unfortunately will cause someone to sell out, and not make their money back that was stolen from them. So overall, you did more damage than good. If you honestly feel that way, you should stop writing about the company, sell all your shares, and move on. Othewise, your just confusing investors about reality.
relmor, well said!
Why would Sirius XM try so desperately to obtain a “bailout” when they knew BK would be inevitable? Wouldn’t Liberty (and their auditors/legal team) have reviewed their financials prior to forking over a couple hundred million? Considering all recent events, it is hard to accept that it was all a waste and that BK will be the end result. Isn’t it in Liberty’s best interests to complete the financing so that the May debt can be paid off and Liberty can continue their course with Sirius XM? Or, would it be more beneficial for Liberty to cut their losses less than a month in? This new twist is concerning and makes no sense…would the 10K filing be impacted by an agreement to repay the May debt? If so, how since it’s for last year’s financials?
FELLAS RELAX! EVERYTHINGS GONNA BE OK. NEVER PANIC
ST.PATRICKS DAY IS THE GREENEST DAY EVER AND EVERYONE WILL SLEEP LIKE A BABY.
I’ll relax…GO SIRI
Nobody will relax until Brandon acknowledges that he is stubborn and does not want to admit how badly his calculation of net subs in 2009 is. He refuses to acknowledge the other channel of distribution aftermarket OEM/internet sales.
I’m relaxed. I couldn’t care less about what ANYONE….including Brandon says.
If there is one thing I’ve learned after being trapped in this stock for 4 years…..Until it actually HAPPENS….no one knows SHIT.
So no use in getting upset over what anyone writes. It’s ALL speculation.
Of my ten friends who drive around listening to their Sirius or XM, only ZERO of them listen from am OEM(or factory installed) radio. This must be representative of some good talking point!
Sounds like someone is selling out…………….and making out like a bandit as more people Panic and Sell dirt cheap !!
Sad, dunno if I should remain here………………………………………….
Yo this is crazy the things i read on this board. I deliberately stopped going to the yahoo board because of all the child’s play..
Yo Brandon…. due diligence… due diligence..
The process of investigation, performed by investors, into the details of a potential investment, such as an examination of operations and management and the verification of material facts.
Now… enter John Malone…. Helped Ted Turner in the 90’s … helped Bob Johnson start and eventually sell Black Entertainment Television… need i say more…
Yo Brandon, just because you uttered this baseless misinformation i’m buying 7,000 more shares on monday…
“A newspaper burns in the sand
and healines read.. “man destroys man”
extra extra read all the bad news
on the walls of peace where everybody would lose
the rise and fall the last great empire
the sound of the whole world caught on fire
the ruthless struggle the desperate gamble
the gain that the whole world in shambles”
Melle Mel
So Brandon, no retail afermarket subs will be added in 2009, right. You still can’t explain this and refuse to correct your BOGUS information on this blog.
WHY, what motive do you have to keep such a ridiculous obvious mistake published and possibly picked up by other news sources ?
You still have a chance to not be considered a hack and a coward, so do you want to relook at your net sub additions for 2009 or continue to hide.
“4,284,000 – 2,275,000 = 2,009,000 subscribers to be lost in 2009” (Brandon says)
I will not let up on this.
Brandon WILL YOU ADDRESS RETAIL? Everyone here has called you out on this and you refuse to answer?
This form
Refers to the XM subsidiary!!!
I could give a rats @$$!! About OEM’s right now!!!
In a nutshell, unless Sirius XM retires its May debt prior to its 10K being released, its only choice is Chapter 11. A simple statement of potential default is reason to cause a default in this case.
HAH!! You need to remove SIRIUS from that statement!!! This is all about the XM SUB/SID!!
Let the turd subsidiary go into 11!! Force all of these turd contracts to be renegotiated!!!! ^&@&@&!!! Oprah/MLB/ ect….!!! If these clowns refuse to rework their deals then @&%^@&!! THEM!!!
People!! Read this very carefully, nowhere is the parent company mentioned!!!
In addition to resulting in termination of further funding pursuant to the Investment Agreements, the inclusion of such a paragraph by KPMG LLP would result in a default under certain indebtedness of the Company, XM Holdings and XM Satellite Radio Inc. (“XM Inc.”) which defaults, if not cured or waived prior to the expiration of the applicable grace period, would result in an event of default under other indebtedness of the Company, XM Holdings and XM Inc. Such events of default, if they occur, provide the lenders the right to demand all amounts due under the respective agreements immediately due and payable.
RTFM!!!!
The bigger question is why Brandon is refusing to post a response to the Retail Market. His calculations don’t include 1 Retail sale at all. This site even stated than an iPhone App is coming. Brandon there will be no retail aftermarket/internet adds this year?
Why won’t Brandon address the Retail Market? How about internet? how about used cars?
Brandon stated the following:
” I have used the following assumptions in my calculations:
21,000,000 subscribers times 1.7 % monthly churn = 4,284,000 deactivated subscribers. ”
My question is this: How can you calculate churn ( deactivated subscribers) on 21 million subscriptions? Where has that number ever been reported. To the best of my knowledge, we are in the 19 million range.
Are you guys all retarded? Why won’t you let this go? This is old news now…you need to get passed this as your not helping the situation with you’re ridiculous bad news speculation and sensationalism…Liberty Media now owns 40%, do you really think they are going to let this drown with a 20,000,000 customer revenue stream. Who else has 20,000,000 million customers paying for a subscription service? that’s almost the population of Canada dickhead. How about writing something positive for a change, or does a “good news” story not make good news??
There is so much wrong with the article it has to be on purpose. How could someone so versed in Siri ignore all the other income streams, especially retail sales. I bought mine retail in Q4. Why doesnt my Sub count? Only thing I could imagine is he had a kneejerk reaction, knows hes wrong but his pride wont let him admit it.
Not to mention that but the only part that says “SiriusXM” is the part he wrote. The copy/paste part doesnt even mention Sirius. You dont think that was just overlooked by the lawyers do you?
This is really mindboggling. If Charles and Tyler are concerned about the credibility of the site content they should find out why Brandon is refusing to answer the retail question. Somebody should step in here.
Tyler do you have an opinion why Brandon excludes Retail from his sub calculations?
Now that Brandon has included his “calculations” it’s even more clear to me that he hasn’t got a clue. He’s factoring his churn on 21million subscribers and not the current 19 million number. That makes a significant difference. Not to mention “self pay churn” is for “self pay subscribers” of which there are in the neighborhood of 16 million. He should be using fully loaded churn 2.2% which factors in the take rate after OEM promotional periods or built in subs and considering the entire penetration which looks to be in the range of 5 million.
we are talking about 2009, not 2008.
Exactly – The churn should be based on CURRENT subscribers not a projected future number. It changes every quarter. By adding your gross subscriber estimate for the year and THEN factoring in the churn you have substantially inflated the number.
You need to reread the filing. There is a very important word in the statement: “reasonable,” as in a reasonable amout of time.
Management is indicating that if it deems the outlook on its current model to be unreasonable, that it may just throw in the towel.
That is a HUGE red flag. Who is going to decide this and based on what? The auto sales data was released days ago. GM is on the verge of BK. Chrysler is on the verge of BK. An investor has to take these things into consideration because management surely is.
Management has not yet completed its evaluation as to whether substantial doubt exists relative to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern for a reasonable period of time…These uncertainties may not be resolved by the time the Company files its Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Brandon, I’ve read the filing. I’ve seen the language. What it means and why it’s there is definitely up for debate. My issue with your article is that you make a claim about the company losing 2 million subscribers next year and back it up using FUNNY math. It doesn’t add up based on the information we have now.