Sirius XM Cramer Wars
Firms such as Merrill Lynch and Citigroup have set much higher price targets than Jim Cramer and Goldman Sachs. Just like Republicans and Democrats, they are looking at the same picture and arriving at opposite conclusions. It’s easy to see the reasoning behind Merrill Lynch’s Jessica Reif Cohen’s analysis of the stock as she continually provides updates and gives solid reasoning for her methodology.
In the case of Cramer, he seems to offer only opinion and that is where the problem lies. According to a recent filing from Goldman Sachs however, his opinion may be based on certain facts that I have discovered. As it turns out, Goldman Sachs owns nearly 130 million dollars worth of those February 2009 convertibles that Jim references in most of his Sirius XM “bashing sessions.” Most people understand that Jim worked for Goldman Sachs and it would stand to reason that certain “information” found its way to him from the top. I’m not saying Goldman is manipulating the stock price, I’m just saying Jim seems to be warning people that that the price may be manipulated going into Q1 of next year. That’s not what a bad guy does. A bad guy would tell people to buy despite the risks.
Everyone is blaming Jim for the merger deal getting killed initially and forcing Sirius into a corner. It is beginning to look more to me like Jim is a pawn in all of this. What appears to be Goldman padding their already beefy portfolio with Sirius XM stock is more likely to be short covering as the “bond bullies” of Goldman and Friends keep manipulating the stock by shorting and covering; over and over again just as Jim stated. (IMHO) The conflict boils down to the perceptions of traders vs. investors. The long term growth prospects of Sirius make it an appealing stock to own however short term bumps are something a trader would play rather than go long on.
Not coincidentally I’m sure, Jim has come out and stated as much without naming names or pointing fingers. When Mel did the Mad Money interview, he also gave insight into this problem. Cramer has suggested that people looking to initiate new positions wait until the refinancing deal is done in February. That’s probably a prudent thing to do if you are in his line of work. Mel stated that the company is working to get this convert issue out of the way. An investor on the other hand would use any dips to lower their cost average.
The prospects of Q4 could cause the company’s stock to reach that magical 4.00 price at which time the convertibles would execute the swap and go long. In my opinion, Cramer may actually be looking out for the little guy in this as I believe he was just as blindsided as the rest of the Sirius XM investment community, but of course he cannot admit that. It may be time to give Jim the benefit of the doubt, and begin a conversation about what to do about the convertible situation and the arbitrage that has been plaguing shareholders.
In my opinion I believe this is the first priority of Mel and Co.. I believe they are working diligently behind the scenes to get these matters in order. As an investor, I’ve certainly had ups and downs but I’m ok with that because the long term prospects of the company are sound in my opinion. Is Sirius a stock for the weak hearted? Possibly not at this time. Is Jim Cramer doing what he feels is right? Probably so based on the information he has.
Position: Long SIRI
You can cut thru all this bullshit with ONE simple inescapable FACT….that Goldman Sachs has continually ADDED shares of Sirius all the while they were bashing them.
Say no more. It is OBVIOUS they are bashing for a reason. And the fact that Cramer is Goldman alum….makes it even more apparent that something fishy is going on.
You don’t add the kind of shares Goldman is adding if you really THINK the company is going bankrupt. If their “agenda” was anymore transparent, it’d be funny. Actually it IS funny.
I don’t even feel that Goldman or Cramer truly believes the pps is going to $1…they’d love it if it did I am sure so they can buy even cheaper shares. But I think they know that as the dust from the merger delay finally settles and after Mel gets some momentum going and lays out his plan…and the synergies become a reality….WALL STREET will begin to take notice, and the debt as Brandon says will become a NON ISSUE.
No one knows for sure whats going to happen. But as a battle fatigued long, I am also battle tested…and I’ll be DAMNED if I’ll let the likes of Cramer, Goldman or some Yahoo bashers shake me out of my shares now.
No way no how brutha.
Long and strong baby. Long and strong.
This has become a battle of attrition.
I mean war of attrition. 🙂
I haver been long for over 5 years and lost a ton of money and still believe, but does anyone really believe this stock will triple to $ 4 by January. Come on Brandon ?
This stock can’t even hold a 10 cents move up.
I don’t think there is anyway that it will have a 13.5 billion market cap by then.
I am tired of disappointment and will not hope for anything until after the refinancing of debt.
It’s more than just the Feb converts. I wouldn’t be surprised if you don’t post this because anything that is not a pump that I write seems to disappear.
Hey Brandon. I have a question for you. In light of this info…and I too cut Jim slack so you know.
Would you hold your position as an investor….and average down if it dips….OR would you SELL now in the thought that if it DOES go to $1…you could buy back in.
I only ask, because if I had done this the other month when the merger was approved and the stock was at $2.80 briefly…I could have actually Doubled my position by buying back at the current price.
Like you I believe in this company…and eventually the stock. But if this really could be manipulated down to $1….selling now and buying back in after Feb at $1 could be a good strategy.
Although with my luck…the stock would shoot up to the infamous $4 price before then.
Friggin
I understand your question. Either scenario involves risks. I thought of selling and buying back myself. Imagine…
Middle of September, Sirius announces that they have refi’d or are making a tender offer on those convertibles.
They announce their marketing plans and intro new radios and x-over programming..stock ends up at 3.00…
That’s still below the convert price but the stock gets taken down only to 2.50…now I would be buying back at double the price I sold for…
The only thing I can do, and you should seek professional advice for yourself, is ride it out and continue to buy the dips…
There are 2 quarters between now and Feb 09…
If the stock is still at a buck and a half come January, I will reaccess for myself…
Gino? Is that you? Or are you just channeling the guy?
Seriously though, Cramer is not being entirely truthful here. You have 20-some-odd analysts stating higher estimates and all he sees is the GS report? Maybe it also has something to do with the short position GS probably took to protect their bonds. I cannot and will not defend the guy. Once GS has finished picking up shares, Cramer will pretend he has always liked Sirius. He is a circus monkey.
Good advice Brandon. Actually I don’t need to seek professional council as I have been doing this for awhile on my own with great success.
I’ll just be a monkey’s uncle if I can’t figure this stock out to save my life. It’s at times both exciting and infuriating.
I was pretty much going to do what you suggested anyway. Wait and see. Lol…thats exactly what I did tho leading up to the merger…um…wait and see.
This stock sure ain’t boring tho.
Siri is down more than 80% since Mel got here.
However, his bonus in 2007 increased 33%.
That’s the fat that needs to be trimmed along with all of the redundant employees and stations of XM.
I know this is a pro siri site but those are facts that shouldn’t be ignored.
Yea but how many more subscribers Sirius has since he got there?
I dont make excuses for Cramer, because there are none. Was not the credit market bad when Cramer was calling for a 6 dollar target after the merger. Was it not bad when he changed it from 6 to 5 after the merger. The time frame and the merger synergies were not that effected that much in the 6 weeks that it took him to go from 5 to a 2 dollar lottery ticket. Did SIRI/XMSR credit rating change in the 6 weeks? The answer to that is, NO. The problem with what Cramer did, is he not only changed his mind almost overnight, because he was a dolt and missed alot of things. Then he went as far as to make the stock out, to look like a joke. That is the problem that people now have with Cramer.
I believe people have a right to be mad at Cramer. He got alot of people to buy. Then basically tells them “April Fools” you guys are stupid for buying this stock. I did not believe him then about a 6 or 5 dollar price target, and I dont believe him now. I learned my lesson about Cramer a long time ago with TEVA. (while it is a good stock it did nothing even close to what he said it would do.) It droped like a rock from 41 to 30 a few months after he said it would go way up, and took almost 2 years to get to 48.
I am a ‘longie’ for the last year or so. And not a financial quru. Could anyone give us a few facts on the convertible bond/arbitrage 101 scenario. I know if I get out the stock will shoot up dramatically. Will there be another ‘blindside’ event in this process. I haven’t been able to find a lot of simple facts on this process as it relates to Sirisu XM. Also, I received my 4.6 share convert for my XM stock, but the total SIRI shares outstanding have not gone up. Ans where can I find current/daily short statistics?
I truly don’t understand how one could possibly defend Cramer? In addition, picturing that “one” being A SIRI long. The so called average Joe got killed by Cramer’s Buy rating, which lasted till 8/1/08, and now getting raped by being forced to sell to the big guns at these levels.
Cramer only thinks of one person. Himself! It appears that he simply wants to tell the whole world that he was right with his $1 price target to, again, make himself look good regardless of any possible consequences to SIRI as a company and its shareholders. He has made his point and now needs to shut up. Have you noticed his videos/articles show up when the SIRI stock had been up in previous days? Have you ever thought of that? Do you see a freaking motive? He’s a complete fake and having people like you, Gino and others defending him will only make matters worse.
HE HAS ADMITTED TO WRONGDOINGs AND BREAKING LAWS IN THE PAST AND AS SOMEBODY SAID SOMEWHERE ELSE “ONCE A CROOK, ALWAYS A CROOk.”
Do people actually listen to Cramer for their investment advice?
I believe the events that can change the downward pressure and make stock go up would be financing at a favorable rate without having to do do another convertable stock offering or an investment from an outside company (cash infusion)
If not I feel that the big boys want to take this down another notch to get in lower.
I am on the fence and so badly want to sell to catch it lower with more shares, but know it will shoot up on some news once I do it.
Brandon are you saying that Goldman Sachs owns $130 Million of the 2-1/2% convertibles due in 2009, or a little over 43.34% of the 300 Million due? How does this tie into what’s been going on those convertibles were issued in Feb 04, $250 Mil. and in March 04, $50 Mil. I’m confused how this defends Cramer and explains GS’ actions. Please clarify.
By the way in addition these convertibles are not secured by any of Sirius XM’s assets. How does this justify them taking the stock down? Even if they are shorting the stock, the convertibles are not secured why take the company down that needs to make good on them?
For some encouraging news see the article at ‘satwaves.com’ titled ‘Something To Consider’. This could be our ‘blindsided’ recovery or the next blindside.
This article states some interesting facts on the convertible bond and a key date of 27 August, 2008, 12 A.M., involving 200 million shares.
I’m saying that Cramer is trying to warn people that Goldman is manipulating the stock price but because of his affiliations with them, he cannot provide any details. I can only speculate on the reasoning behind this, and would venture a guess that Goldman wants the investment banking business from Sirius and they are trying to paint them into a corner.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/ed.....200802.txt
Brandon,
I am starting to question your motives! So, let me get this straight. Cramer is on our side while Lehman, Merrill, S&P, Citi…. with their “Buy Now” recommendations are there to trap us!?Cramer knows more than all of them combined, right?
Your defending Jim Cramer is simply mind boggling given how you feel about SIRI as a company and how hard ther’re working to refinance the notes due in FEB., May and Dec. of next year. If you truly believe in the potentials for SIRI and the fact that he’s still getting confidential/inside trading tips from GS, you shouldn’t even place any credence on his prdictions, outlook or comments let alone defending the crook — because all he wants to do is for his buddies to either cover or buy in at lower prices.
Not going to get into the conspiracy theory of GS, but that filing also shows that they hold $70 million of XM’s $400 million in 2.75% convertible notes (which is now 10%) — and expire in Dec 2009.
As for the refinancing, Karmazin mentioned on one of the shows — with regard to the debt maturing/expiring next year — that they plan on taking care of some of that sooner, rather than later.
As I noted in other threads, there is a portion of this debt that will bought back in cash (since it’s very minimal) as well as convert, since it’s above the conversion price. The problem is the two convertible issues for Sirius and XM; plus XM’s expiring credit facilities.
I do not see them giving a tender offer on the Sirius and XM notes yet, that would involve issue new debt first — and this is a bad time to do this. Maybe in a couple months… however, I think that Karmazin may have been referring to the expiring credit facilities in that statement. It has been my opinion that XM will work a deal with the banks to extend the current facilities… and I think that that is what he’s talking about. If they can work this deal — then that would take $350 million of the $1.1 billion off the block, that everyone is talking about… and basically leave them with the two convertible issues.
I think if they can do this first issue, it may take some of the pressure off of the stock. Then when they can buy back the two convertibles — it will take even more pressure off.
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I think Cramer knows something and is trying to warn investors without letting the cat out of the bag. Of course I’m still long as of today closing, so hoping I’m wrong, but if I decide to sell and wait, well then…..It may be too risky to sell either way because a game changer could come out of left field and send the stock soaring.
I don’t see Cramer bashing right now, but obviously has changed his tune. Something is up.
Now unless Mel comes out after Labor Day and says he has secured financing without further dilution and says he found another 200 million in synergies about the 400 million, we could be in for a bad time.
I wish I did not feel this way, but 5 years of getting hope smashed & getting taken to the cleaners because of lack of earnings and looming debt has done this to me.
Lack of merger pop and getting crushed instead made me much more cautious and realize pumping on message boards is a useless waste.
We need a game changer that nobody is expecting to price through the converts without getting called on the debt.
>>>Now unless Mel comes out after Labor Day and says he has secured financing without further dilution and says he found another 200 million in synergies about the 400 million, we could be in for a bad time.
Keep in mind that the two convertible issues that are maturing next year, would have contributed over 105 million shares into the float — had they converted. If Sirius were to replace this debt with non-convertible, then this would be a significant reduction in the fully diluted sharecount.
But don’t get your hopes up — I don’t see that happening. They will probably replace them with a new convertible, at whatever the going rate is at the time. The unfortunate thing is that the conversion price will likely be significantly lower — so that would increase the number of shares issued upon maturity… thus there will be “some” new dilution.
I guarantee if/when they replace these convertibles with new convertibles — all you’ll hear about is the “dilution” of the shareholders… and all of the media will neglect to note that it would be a REPLACEMENT for an already dilutive instrument.
That’s just the idiocy of the media…
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Homer985 I agree that extending XM’s $350 mil credit facility would take some pressure off especially if they could pay down that debt enough to make room for XM’s MLB escrow payment after the MLB’s $60 Mil take for 09. At least that would start to show a pay as you go on that content contract and allow them to focus on debt that is truly dilutive to shareholders: the $750 Mil in convertibles, Feb 09 $350 & Dec 09 $400 Mil. Honda, as you pointed out on an earlier thread will probable convert their debt and sell the shares with a .69/sh rate for what around 32-35 mil. And as you’ve also pointed out the 8.75 Sept converts for around 1.75 mil can be paid in cash, with no realistic convert price anyway.
Homer,
What do you think could keep this stock above 1.50 or even get to $ 2 in light of what the inevitable convertibles and/or financing due in the first quarter.
Also, knowing they will probably handle this soon. I think Mel was giving us a hint and wants to put it behind him and the company to get down to the focus of making $ and growing the company.
Basicaly, what do you think they would need to say at the conference call after Labor day ?
I wonder how far after Labor Day also ?
cos, XM has already funded the $120 million escrow payment. XM has stated that they are trying to work a deal with MLB, to get them to accept a letter of credit, in lieu of the cash payment. This would free up $120 million cash back to XM to cash & equivolents, if they pull it off.
As for next years $60 million MLB payment, they make those every February as prepayments to programming — and they’ve been doing it out of operating cashflow. I see no reason they can’t do it again in this coming Q1.
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“Investor” — I don’t think it’s a matter of keeping the stock above $1.50 or $2.00 — I believe what is holding this stock down IS the financing issue.
For those of you who were around with us in 2001 and 2002 — the thing that killed these two stocks was the pending financing issue at the end of 2002. It drove Sirius down, well under $1 and XM down under $1.60… (that’s when I lowered my XM cost average down to near $4 and bought Sirius for $0.90). Anyhow, the stocks were being crushed, due to the speculation of what was going to happen… but once it was done, they rebounded. Plain and simple, this is what is going on with these stocks… as soon as they set a plan of how they’re going to refinance, I believe you’ll start to see a turnaround. I think the credit facilities come first, then comes Sirius’ convertible issue… XM’s convertible probably won’t get done until this time next year, IMHO.
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rc
I’m not claiming Cramer is on our side at all. I think like the rest of us he expected a pop on the merger…I’m saying he was just as surprised as any of us to learn that there is an arbitrage play in effect here.
My opinion is that he cannot in good conscience, knowing that the hedge funds “bond bullies” have an agenda to keep the price surpressed, recommend Sirius as a new position.
He has never said to sell the stock. He is saying to wait until the debt issues are resolved if you want to get in. No mention has been made by him as to what you should do if you are already long SIRI.
As a person who gives financial advice, that is a matter of fiduciary responsibility. He may still believe that SIRI is capable of becoming a 5.00 stock by March, but the issue of this type of debt and what he knows about these specific converts prevents him from saying so.
Homer-
Thanks for your response.
My opinion is, I guess if your playing with $ you may need in the next 6 – 9 months, then you should sell now.
If you can weather it, then your looking at big potential upside.
Maybe a triple to $ 4 by end of next year.
Homer, I agree that if they can pull off that letter of credit as opposed to the escrow holding that would take some pressure off and allow the 120 to be used, hopefully to pay down debt. My point was that I believe that the banking credit line was at 250 mil in the spring and their escrow was light after the $60 mil payment in January 08. It was my understanding that the additional $100 mil issued in June 08 was to reconcile the escrow/ cash payment problem. Seemed to me like robbing Peter to pay Paul, not funding the deal from operating cash flow.
Brandon,
This will be my last post on this subject and I’d like to thank you in advance for your response.
“My opinion is that he cannot in good conscience, knowing that the hedge funds “bond bullies” have an agenda to keep the price surpressed, recommend Sirius as a new position.” >>> Is it safe to assume that you believe others (Merrill, S&P, Lehman, Citi) have no good “conscience” or no conscience at all for recommending to buy the stock NOW and cliaming the stock is “massively undervalued” NOW???? You cannot have it both ways!
“I’m not claiming Cramer is on our side at all. I think like the rest of us he expected a pop on the merger…I’m saying he was just as surprised as any of us to learn that there is an arbitrage play in effect here.”>>> He was obviously wrong before the merger so what makes you think he knows something and is right this time around????
“He has never said to sell the stock.” >>> It sounds like a sell to me when he has a $1 price target within the next six months which by the way, again, is the same exact same PPS and time period as GS analyst’s who has a sell rating on the stock. Come on now Brandon, the stock was trading around $1.48 when Cramer came up with his price target of $1 which is more than 30% below the stock price level at the time! Doesn’t this sound like a “sell” to you?
rc
doesn’t have to be your last post…
On your first point my response is that I believe he is privvy to info from Goldman that others firms are not..
second point you could be right…but its an opinion that he is entitled to based on his perception of the overall picture. Even citi and merrill don’t agree…they just both happen to diagree to the upside…
third…just because a stock will experience a hiccup is not a reason to sell…read the article again. There are different plays. A traders view and an investors view. The average investor may do well to ride out the stock hiccups because they may never materialize vs. someone who wants to jump in now that may face a risk that it will.
In fact, he simply recommended that anyone looking to get in wait until the refi was figured out…
Again…he has never addressed long term prospects with the exception being that he agreed with Mel that it is the best play in the sector..
Brandon, where would Sirius get the cash from to buy the notes?
I don’t buy into the conspiranoid theory Cramer’s fronting for Goldman Sachs or any institutional investor to clear out the suckers on Sirius just in time for a bull run. In fact, I have difficulty believing Cramer’s influence on investors is as strong as many are alleging. As opaque as the company’s management has been on their business model and financial condition, they’ve got no one else but themselves to blame for a spooked Street.
They should have had Sirius channels prepared for cross-migration onto XM frequencies (and vice versa) immediately upon the merger’s approval.
They should have introduced a basic tier of 50 or so channels priced under $8/month.
I could go on, but the point being Jim Cramer had nothing to do with those decisions. Neither did Cramer engineer the oil, credit, or housing bubbles that have destabilized the overall economy and sabotaged Sirius’ #1 market; OEM sales. Scapegoating Cramer for the company’s poor performance in the market is irrational.
When a stock trades 100 million shares, 75 million, 50 million, 35 million and today 27 million at the flat line, what does that tell you? This stock is being manipulated, period, end of story. You can bang your heads against the wall until kingdom comes, predicting where the stock should be trading. Until the manipulation ceases, expect the the flat line for a very long time.
…and yeah, I forgot to mention, Cramer is a BIG part of the problem. He is a lying POS. He has admitted he was a former stock manipulator and stated he could move the entire market with as little as $5 million. He is the lowest form of scum you will ever meet. He would steal your money in a second.
you can’t be serious (note the spelling, there is no pun intended here)…
Hey Brandon,
Besides the debt and financing, do you think there is ANYTHING…ANY news between now and February that could move the stock up significantly or help it break thru this negative perception that is holding it down?
Sirius’s Good 2nd quarter results(it’s last as a solo company) failed to move the stock, but what if they surprise everyone and have a better than expected 3rd quarter as a combined company, or if Mel comes out with some unexpected news(besides the debt) that is good?
Do you think there is ANY such news that could change Wall Streets perception and make the whole debt issue a non issue?
Thanks
cos1000,
XM had $211 million in cash at the end of Q1. But they had the $60 million MLB payment due in February; they had the $48 million balance payment for 2007 to SoundExchange come due in Q1; they had the settlements with the record lables that they had to pay on in Q1; and they had the $120 million Surety Bond expiring at the end of Q2 that was in lieu of the escrow payment to fund.
So between February and May, XM borrowed all $250 million on the credit facility… $60 million to MLB for 2008; $120 million to the MLB escrow deposit; $48 million to SoundExchange; plus payments to the record labels and on merger costs taking up the rest.
In the past, the $60 million MLB payment was just taken from cashflow during Q1 (which normally took it negative), but given that they had so many other big draws coming in that short period — XM was left with drawing all of their credit facility. They had $250 million come in during those two quarters — and paid out $230 million, plus whatever was payable to the record labels and on merger costs. Had they not had all of these other payments, it is my opinion that the MLB payment would have just come from operating cash flow and cash on hand.
The $100 million term loan was taken in June to pay off amounts borrowed on the GM facility during that time period and to replenish cash in the company. The fact is, while the company was cutting expenses like crazy in the business — they had money flying out the door at the same time on all kinds of issues. Merger costs alone in the last year drained them of significant cash — which came right out of their already dwindling account. You remove all of this stuff — and then making the $60 million MLB payment in February is peanuts to the company.
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screw cramer!
screw gs!
don’t worry about the stock price right now.
just buy SIRI radios & subscriptions. we must do more than fume and vent !!!!
buy ala-cart asap, please.
frigginregan
I think there are a lot of possibilities. Whether they come to fruition or not is another matter. I don’t run the company, and I’ve never seen a single idea regarding operations by any shareholders adopted by the company.
Homer985, Thanks for the breakdown of Q1 and Q2. The Royalties are not going away and depending on usage / subscribers may in fact go up over time (with increasing revenues to support them we hope). The MLB payments will stay the same and I have agreed that the letter of credit will remove some pressure if applied to paying down existing debt. My comment of robbing Peter to pay Paul, is that they are maxed out on their credit facility to pay off their very restrictive GM revolving facility (can only be used to pay GM expenses), Surety bond, Royalty Board court decision, Merger Costs, and cash balance replenishment, and that debt is all expiring on May 5, 2009. The $350 Mil by the way had fairly favorable terms. I just am not seeing how this all goes away in 2009 or even 2010 for XM and now Sirius XM Radio without a major influx of cash from increase revenues.
Oh I know that Brandon. And I’m also not naive enough to assume Sirius would ever adopt any of our ideas.
I was just curious if you saw anything short of a favorable debt refinancing in February that would be powerful enough to change wall streets attitude on Sirius and move the stock.
Or are you resigned to accepting what Cramer says and that Sirius is COMPLETELY at the mercy of the debt/convert issue?
It seems to me that this is still a glass half full/half empty scenario. Yes Goldman has been “right” in predicting(manipulating) the stock price. More so than those like Citi who predicted much higher stock prices of $4.50 to $6.50.
Yes the debt issue is a reality….but so is Sirius XM’s potential future growth. We’ve all seen companies with MASSIVE dillution or debt EXPLODE upwards in spite of such issues.
All it would take is some great news from Mel, some great numbers in Q3…and some nice upgrades, and I think we could trump the Goldman Sachs strangle hold on the stock price. The tide could turn.
Brandon & frigginregan, I hope you don’t mind my jumping in here and if you do…..I can’t help myself.
First of all can we all just agree that GS and Weinke, and Cramer, through his relationship with GS, had information about the financing deal prior to the merger. I find it highly suspect that in seeking financing that XM and Sirius didn’t approach GS for investment banking business prior to the merger approval.
In saying that, and GS not getting the business, I agree that they adopted a strategy to choke the company’s stock with the shares that they already controlled. Their recent purchase of additional shares is to further strengthen their choke hold on the company. They can “Short” the stock and at the same time be a lender of shares to others who want to short the stock, making their position very strong to say the least. This in conjunction with the Convertible Arbitrage refinancing at the time of the merger is almost unsurmountable at this time. With this type of strategy, Weinkes is not a genius with a Crystal Ball, he and Cramer have insider information that as long as they do not personally or have anyone they know trading on the stock, which I think makes it legal, gives them the wisdom of a “Seer” on where the SP is heading. This is not Paranoid thinking, it’s Wall Street strategy. Its all Legal until someone is Caught.
Brandon to your articles point, I and you agree, that Cramer probably didn’t have the info, because of his high profile public personality, until the deal was done. Now he walks a fine line of being the “Caped Crusader” for the little guy (LOL), while trying to maintain his much more valuable contacts and relationships with Wall Street Insiders. Thus his “New” Advice is to not start a new position until after the Feb 09, deal is done. The end result is we as Retail Investors get screwed because we ARE invested in this company. Cramer’s “Game”, which gets him ratings and hits on his site, hurts the small retail investor, period. There will be no tears for Cramer from me.
Cos1000,
I agree with alot of what you said. We all have our theories why the price is being held down, and there are also inescapable facts as to why this is so.
Still….do you REALLY think that Goldman Sachs is ALL powerful? Yes they are the current kings of Wall Street. But They also aren’t the only big firms who hold major positions in Sirius…and ultimately they certainly don’t have TOTAL control of the stock.
Again I agree that Goldman is manipulating this stock and their are certain parties that are in league with Goldman no doubt.
But they don’t control ALL the shares. And I still believe with the right conditions, news from Mel and other positive factors, other parties with a stake in Sirius can stand up and change the course this stock has taken.
Until then, it’s a waitings game. But as someone whose been as long as I have…ain’t no big thang. I’m a patient guy. 🙂
cos1000, as you know we had dicussed this financing issue before on Seeking Alpha. We all knew financing was not going to be easy, but that it would get done one way or the other. It was even talked about, SIRI having to do a real dilution of shares to get it done. The fact is where they would be with the amount of shares outstanding after the merger, whats another 500 million (at the time the PPS was at around 2.4).
Cramer is a short term stock analyst. He gets it right just over half the time. He does not know what the stock will be in a year or 2. On his show he has said he does not care about where any stock will be that far out. He is there for the trade, not for the buy and hold.
cos1000, we know listening to Cramer is like spitting into the wind, when it comes to the long term of now SIRIXM.
GOldman is likely buying to hedge their short positions in SIRI. People don’t get it.
What’s interesting to me is not how the game involved with investing in Sirius is changing to keep the price down, but rather how the whole playing field is about to change.
john, hey good to see your still around and kicking and you and I know this hoopla about Cramer is a big yawn…..but it does spell out the beginning of a new playing field for Sirius XM Radio. GS and Cramer, so long as Mel breaths, will not get any new business or news from Mel.
Zach401, Goldman is definitely buying to hedge, they all do. Goldman though is grinding an axe because their not going to get the business from Mel. They can and do control a lot of shares directly and indirectly of this company. Whether their buying long and hedging short, or just lending their shares short, who knows on any given day.
That’s the problem…..along with the “dead silence” from the Sirius Xm since the merge. I’m not surprised by the silence. Until the date for Appeals goes by with the FCC, I think that’s around Aug. 27th, why should the new company talk at all. Mel said after Labor Day and I Heard HIM. After Labor Day the plans for growth, debt resolution, new products, new partnerships, should and can all be release. There is a lot of work to be done….And the Retail Model is definitely Broken. Marketing is not in good shape as expressed by the missed opportunities already. OK OK I’m done. See you all soon have a great, what’s left of the Weekend.
cos1000,
some very good points, particularly one…you know which one I am talking about, and anyone else will have to read your post to figure it out themselves…
let’s see after Labor Day what happens.
shark,
Shhhhhhhhhh!
Setting short-term date for Sirius XM Radio is laughable at this point. I’m long, but the value in this company has been destroyed.
It’s going to take years to rebuild the lost shareholder value.