In My Humble Opinion
Now that Sirius XM has laid out its cards on the table, I’d like to offer my view. I’m surprised at all the surprise and negativity from these other analysts. I mean, they have to be kidding, right?
On the reverse split issue, allow me to paint myself into a corner and applaud the company. It’s about time they got proactive in defending the stock price! This should have been done years ago. One of the biggest problems for Sirius XM over the past several years is that it has had far too many shares outstanding. Such a large number of shares combined with a sub 5.00 stock price has made manipulation too easy. The number of outstanding shares alone validates its reversal.
Have you seen the stock price lately? Dilution has been factored into it already. Several analyst reports that I have read this quarter have planned on it. They may have expected it in February, but what’s the difference at this point? So go ahead, trade the 35 cent shares for debt, then do a 50 for 1 reverse split. As a shareholder, I’d rather see the company trying to protect my investment rather than sit back and watch it evaporate further.
On the issue of the debt for shares “surprise,” I am just as excited about this as I am a reverse split. I thought Wall Street analysts were supposed to be smart! I can easily recall Mel Karmazin’s recent statements, that Sirius XM would be very close to being in a position in February, to pay off its debt with CASH ON HAND. My thinking is that the 30 million dollars raised will make that Feb 2009 debt retirement completely plausible. This is the single best sign of the future of Sirius XM that I have seen in many years.
The markets want visibility and it plans up to 18 months ahead. The market right now cannot see past February when it comes to Satellite radio. Many analysts have speculated about a potential restructuring at that time that could wipe out shareholders. Up until now, the company has been silent. These signs are the first real indication of its intentions to avoid bankruptcy and to reduce its debt. This is not just talk. Who, for instance, would accept 30 million dollars in common stock in exchange for repayable debt if bankruptcy were even a remote possibility? NO ONE!
The only reason to enter into such a deal is the belief that the equity has more value than not only the bond interest, but its principle. That is good news, no matter how you look at it, for shareholders.
Position: Long SIRI
This sounds crazy, but anyone who has big money invested in this company should consider this proposal. We need 100,000 investors to DONATE $10,000 to SiriusXM. This would wipe out the entire 2009 debt. Think of the return you would get on that $10,000.
ITS OVER THE END ITS OVER THE END ITS OVER THE END ITS OVER THE END ITS OVER THE END ITS OVER THE END
I agree with socalrunningfool’s post above, this morning at 12:35 am. We need factual updates from article writers, not hyperbole, speculation, and other unqualified comments. We get enough of such comments from among ourselves, the regular followers and participants on this board. Just the facts, ma’am.
and those of us averaged above $2.50 ? what happens to us?
Let’s not forget that IF the buyer of the $30 million worth of Sirius stock (at a price higher than the then current price) was making the purchase to cover their short position, they must have made the purchase with the belief that the stock price would be going up. Otherwise, why would they not have waited, with the idea of consistently buying smaller quantities at a lower price? Whatever the reason for the purchase, Sirius got $30 million.
GS is laying off 10% of their employees, any chance they fire Weinkes
IN MY HUMBLE OPINION
If we survive a reorganization, we will have a sever dilution anw will wait years to recoup a piece of our investments.
26 cents boys!!! HOW CAN A STOCK SPLIT HURT THE PRICE OF THE STOCK!!! IT HAS PROGRESSIVELY GONE TO A FUCKING QUARTER. YOU PEOPLE THINK IT CAN GET WORSE THE THAT? SPLIT THE STOCK IT CAN NOT GET ANY WORSE!!! TYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYLERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR. WHY CANT THE COMPANY ASK SHAREHOLDERS FOR 500 EACH TO PAY DOWN DEBT? CKS SHOULD BE MADE TO SIRIUS DEBT REDUCTION AT THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS….. SIRIUSBUZZ SHOULD GO TO SIRI AND PROPOSE THIS NOW. ALL WILL FAVOR THE IDEA!!!! OR IS THAT WHAT DILUTION WILL DO ANYWAY?
Kevin,
Since you seem to understand the clear concept of the share price going down now wait to see what would happen with a reverse split and dilution. Because the share price would be magnified (exponentially increased), the decrease in share price from the point of RS would be magnified as well more than likely.
Have you heard of the term “cause and affect”. The stock price is not the cause but rather the affect. The cause is the underlying fundamentals of the company. We seemed to have taken on too much debt.
It’s similar to what we are seeing in housing. Things were going good for Americans and housing values were going up so people purchased more home than they could afford due to lax lending standards and the fact that people thought their homes would never go down. It was a no brainer to many. People didn’t think about the worst case scenario and that is what we are paying for today. We are seeing the worst case scenario.
This is similar to what Mel has done. I give him credit for his initial efforts for growing this company. We are now paying for this.
The chickens always come home to roost. Sooner or later.
Just my opinion, as always.
“I thought Wall Street analysts were supposed to be smart!”
You have to be kidding! Aren’t they the ones that got our whole economy into this mess.
Otherwise, I agree with you.
Anybody know where Mel is? Is he even alive? Just wondering. I will check the obituary columns.
I have been saying for month’s That shareholders should offer to pay the debt down.
I would be willing to give up to $1000.00 $500.00 for the debt – and at these prices $500.00 for the company to buy back shares. I would want a guarantee that the company will not go private – No RS.
I think this idea should be given to mel before the upcoming vote in December.He should included this alternative option for vote.
I think we should notify the press on our intent.
This would back Mel into a corner and would not look good for him if we file a case against management and he claimed he had no other options.
Small price to pay to save our investment.
I really wish someone with a little clout can set this in motion.
I Really wish Tyler or Brandon would publish an artical on just this idea. and let the media take it from there.
Bill
I really don’t understand what the hell we are waiting for. Please Please please lets make an effort to get this done.
Tylor, Brandon MAKE THIS HAPPEN !!!!!!!
You have the power of the pen.
If this gets to the mainstream. I sure that some reporter will question Mel on it.
This idea should be an option for shareholders to vote on in December.
TO SIRIUS IR
Your comment has been submitted to our Website Feedback department. Thank you for your interest.
You wrote:
Dear Sir / Madam As you can see long shareholders are being driven downwards every day. As a long holder of 215,000 shares we are proposing to bail out the company debts in 2009. Many shareholders would like this brought up on the ballot for 12/18/2008 meeting. we are certain that over a million holder with $500 each can bring back some confidence in the company. Unless, management has other plans not shared with shareholders including wiping out their invesments and life savings Many thanks and would appreciate very much a reply
PLEASE EVERY ONE WRITE TO THEM SO THEY DO NOT SAY WE HAD NO OTHER OPTION, MEL SAID HE WOULD LEND THE COMPNY IN HIS LAST PUBLIC INTERVIEW SEPT 2008
I also sent in about one month ago.
I really think we should hit the media with it.
Mel would have to acknowledge then.
Sending to Siri didn’t seem to generate to much interest. I wonder why : (
You guy are pissing in the wind… Most share holders don’t hve hundreds or even tens of thousands of shares. They aren’t sending Siri shit to pay off the debt. 100,000 shreholders sending in 10,000 a piece? That is some of the funniest shit I ever heard, even as I am apparently about to lose $20k….jmo
I recommend also that everyone save their emails and replies from Sirius.
Hmmmm what the hell is so funny.
$500 to try to save a 20K investment.
Again what the hell is so funny ????
I stand by my statement…ITS NOT GONNA HAPPEN!!!….good luck
WJDJFD,
I do like the idea however I’m not sure if this would be considered throwing good money after the bad money.
I am not only trying to save our investment.
I also think we should start a paper trail for future filings against Siri if need be.
I really hope Mel has nothing but the best intent for share holders but we should close the holes in our behinds so we don’t keep getting bent over.
I can’t FUCKING believe this MOTHER FUCKING BULLSHIT FUCKING stock!!!! $37,000 invested now worth $4,500. FUUUUUUUCCCKKKKKK!
How about Mel and Howard pay off the debt, which they could do in a heartbeat; perhaps they don’t care about the company as much as we, the pee ons do. They are both responsible, to a large extent, for Sirius/Xm being in the mess it is in right now. They should look at it as an investment, and a vote of confidence. If they don’t care about saving the company ( and so far I have seen NO evidence ), why should millions of subscribers and shareholders give a damn? We already ARE paying into the business – time for the fat cats to take their death grip off their precious wallets and do what is in the best interest of ALL the investers. This nightmare can be dealt with, but the people who need to step up to the plate evidently have…. NO BALLS !!!
Now even I agree it’s time to buy because they will not let this company go bankrupt.
Even if it’s only worth $ 1.00 in 4 months, it would be a 250% gain from here at .27 cents.
The thesis of this article must be viewed against the backdrop of management’s failure to execute the business plan.
Lacking the requisite tranparency and accountability that is the fiduciary responsibility of management . . it is impossible to share the author’s optimistic opinion.
If the theme of the article generates more “clicks” I am all for that . . . the article is the conduit for discussion. I wouldn’t care if it was written in Mandaran Chinese.
fredlee . . . stay on, keep posting . . . here and elsewhere and drink bottled water (no lead).
For the contrast to Brandon’s thesis, please tune in to SiriusBuzz Radio tonight for the Michael Harleib interview. Hartleib will take callers questions.
Those here who have referred to him as a “nut,” “crazy uncle” or “conspiracy” theorist should call in tonight and do there level best to undress him . . . then we can decide.
$1.00 if 4 months? Maybe after a 50:1 reverse stock split. Dude…save your money for a nice dinner out or something.
Right on Roadkill.
I plan on listening to what Hartleib has to say tonight. In light of the lack of transparency as Mel PROMISED there would be after the merger, I am finding myself siding with Mr. H’s “CRAZY” theories more and more.
And as a LONG I have to bang my head against the wall when I read articles such as this from Brandon. WHO THE HELL IS BEING “SAVED” with a 1 for 50 REVERSE SPLIT? NOT LONGS thats for sure. It DEFIES logic how ANYONE with a long position would EVER think a 1 for 50 RS would be a GOOD thing. Especially with Sirius’ history of being the most shorted stock in the market. We WOULD BE CRUSHED.
Maybe such a move would be good for FUTURE shareholders.
But for us LONGS….it’d be SUICIDE.
And I say screw em. Let Mel think of another way.
Oh, and one last thing….for all those shareholders who are proposing a shareholder bailout….you sound like the taxpayers who are getting screwed in this bank bailout. A more appropriate analogy is of the wife who BLAMES herself for being BEATEN by her husband!!!
I got an idea. BEFORE you go start proposing bailing out this company that has stolen your hard earned money….HOW ABOUT MEL and HOWARD STERN stepping up to the plate?
HUH? Where are the cries for THEM to pony up some COIN???
Haven’t WE the shareholders paid our fare share? Taken all the hits? While Mel and Howard have gotten rich?
This crazy talk has to stop now.
Sure…Mel can JOKE about bailing out the company himself…saying he HOPES it doesn’t come to that….but when it comes to that….HE FUCKING WANTS THE LONGS TO TAKE THE HIT FIRST???
FUCK THAT. FUCK THE RS. AND FUCK ANYONE who suggests WE bail out Sirius. Are you INSANE??? Let Mel and Howard do it.
send an email of your concerns to…
olga_kharif@businessweek.com
I just hope that they do not go private. I invested as a long knowing that it would get worse before it got better, but the talk of going private scares me because if they do that, I lose around 60 grand (probably more)
I can live with the reverse split, but that really puts me in a position where It will take a long time for me to break even.
If they go private and steal the company from us shareholders, then I am left with nothing but a slap in the face.
Hey friggin – I just stated the same thing about Mel and Howard a couple of posts earlier! I cant believe people are not outraged at their lack of empathy/interest while the company sinks like the Titanic. You know as well as I do that if they (Karmazin and Stern ) stepped up and anteed up the money to cover the February debt, there would be an imediate positive impact on the stock price. And subscriptions. More than anything, somebody has to restore some confidence in the minds of the subscribers/shareholders! If they don’t, this disaster will be over very soon. Hey Mel, start listening to the people before it’s too late. You just might learn something !!!
YOU ALL HAVE BUT ONE CONTEMPLATION. BK OR NOT. IF SO SELL. IF NOT BORROW TO BUY. FRIGGIN HAS NO GUTS AT THIS PRICE, BUT SHOULD HE? BK OR NOT? I CHOOSE NOT. THE REASON A RS IS NOT BAD IS BECAUSE WE’RE ABOUT TO START SAVING MILLIONS AND ARE ABUT TO MAKE A PROFIT. RS WILL BUY TIME TO GET ROLLING. MEL JUST STATED HE SEES THE REFI. STILL HAPPENING. STOP BLAMING HIM FOR OUR MISERY. HARTLIEB’S A WINER WHO WANTS HIS MONEY BACK. BE MEN AND BUY.
Friggen, we are about to hit a quarter, r u still goin put in a $1000, to buy 4000 shares?
I know it doesn’t mean anything but I have been emailing the stern show nonstop, telling Howard to get Mel in the studio to take callers questions. If Sirius files for BK then I am sure Howard will take a hit as well
Some say we should give management the “tools” they need to meet the challenges ahead. Management must first prove responsible with the tools they have already been given . . .
Asking shareholders to give management the “authority” for the equity offering and reverse split amounts to handing the car keys to a drunk . . . Mel must first come forward and walk a straight line in front of the shareholders watchful eyes.
Mel . . . it is past time to address the great unwashed masses . . . come down from Trump Tower and enlighten the “unsophisticated.”
A couple of thoughts…
1) Has anyone thought about the impact that all our bitching has on the stock price. I feel the same pain as everyone else here. But if I wasn’t in this stock, and saw all the bitching from current stockholders, I would NEVER think about jumping in. And it’s not just here, but google and yahoo(all fucking retards btw) boards are bashtastic as well.
2) How can anyone expect Howard to pony up cash to bail the company out? How did Howard and Mel become grouped into this duo of debt payers? Howard is an employee of Sirius who is paid to host a radio show. And as for all the ignorant assholes that say he makes too much, I have already shown that he has more then made up for what Sirius has paid him.
3) I don’t see why people are hatin on Brandon for the article. I think he is totally on point. Pay the Feb debt off with CASH ON HAND. Convert some more debt. Pay off what can be be paid off with cash and refi the rest. That is the best solution, both short and long term.
4) No more dilution and no reverse split.
There seems to be alot more volume and bigger buys coming in at .25 & .26 cents, so maybe worst is finally over ?
Id Sirius comes out with a statement that things are not as bad as stock indicates, we could double or triple from here pretty quickly.
I think the stock hitting .25 should trigger some statement from them, no ?
Theres no way in hell howard would be stupid enough to bail out the company.
It would be nice for us small investors, but seriously would any of us take that kind of risk? not me.
just because howard has a lot of $$ doesnt make him responsible to bail us out of the mess we are in.
we need to go after the real bastards who screwed us over, not Howard.
I am becoming convinced that Mel is accomplishing exactly what he set out to do: bring the company to a dismal low and then steal it from the investors who he used to get it to that point, and then cash in while giving us all the finger with a big grin on his face.
All I have to say is that FEAR right now is at a fever pitch for this stock.
What does that normally tell you to do or what you should do ?
I think the stock hitting .25 should trigger some statement from them, no ?
One would think so, but there has been no effort whatsover to calm investors. When was the last time that investors were addressed by the company?
SOME HUMOR IS NEEDED….someone wrote this…
By Grandpa
How did you get three houses and a really cool boat?
Well Little Billy, I invested in a stock called Sirius during the stock market crash of 2008. Way back then you could get a share for the same price as a pack of Juicy Fruit. I kept buying and believing in the head of the company…he’s call a CEO. I would work and save and buy stock in that company…then one day in early 2010 people started to notice that the economy was improving and the company had over 40 million people paying to listen to music and talk.
In the end when I ended up selling, that stock was worth $40 a share…I was quite a happy camper.
Now shut up and go to bed.
There is a thread in the stock talk forums on this site called –
“SIRI closed at 25 cents today………thoughts?”
Please post your comments there…….
Dear Cramer
You said 2 months ago Sirius stock was a $2 lottery ticket and I did not listen, cuz you said before merger it would double to $ 5 from $2.5 and I listened and bought a lot.
I promise you I would listen now if you tell me what scratch ticket is worse a quarter. Then I will buy and scratch my butt with a sirius stock
Juicy Fruit costs 30 cents, our stocks are worth a tiny bag of Doritos
Thanks SiriusHope!
I’m glad the punchline wasn’t grandpa speaking from his unheated trailer telling the kid to shut up and stir in the two free sugar packets from MacDonalds into his glass of water!
Thanks for the levity on this day. Hopefully today, even though it is not the end of September, will be the end of the quarter (bad joke)!
even a quarter can’t open a french toilet door to let you shit on the stock
chizzle-
In my town, a tiny bag of Doritos is 50 cents. If this keeps up, maybe I’ll move to your town!
Or, perhaps we can buy a large bag, split the cost between several shareholders, and have a party!!
OK, time for a jar and put quarter in if some one says something negative about the stock.
Well, my guess we may buy back the company with jar full of quarters
Funny comments, Im gonna buy another 2k shares tomorrow, whats another $500. It has got to turn around, I think?
There is a thread in the stock talk forums on this site called –
“SIRI closed at 25 cents today………your thoughts?”
If your comments are not specific to the article, please post your comments there…….
Chizzle
Why not wait when it is apenny and buy 50 k
when GS said target $1.75 and Mel bought 2 mil @ 1.37, I bought 35K when hit 1.25 ans was so excited.
Then, GS put target .75, and went to .65, i got excited again and bought 20K. Then, now in .25 and I ran out of excitment
I hear some say we should blame ourselevs !!! Really, when a CEO is talking about billions of synergies in premerger. When, you look at very financial analyst pre merger having positive outlook and buy rating. When, S&P, yahoo financial, money CNN all still having rating of outperform. Are not these are the buisness experts that should guide investor.
I guess we fell for the same scam, the congress fell for to pay 750 billions of our taxes