Ford Beats The Street – Sees Auto Sales Of 11.5 to 12.5 Million – SIRI To Benefit
Hearing Ford once again reiterate a 2010 industry sales total of 11.5 to 12 million vehicles is also good news for satellite radio. That number is just above the 11 million Sirius XM used in offering their guidance for 2010. The good thing here is that SIRI is set to beat their guidance because of the better auto sales, but the numbers are not so huge that the costs associated with that growth are overwhelming. In my opinion, even at 12.5 million vehicles sold in 2010, SIRI can present good metrics across the board and will be able to demonstrate the sustainability of their subscription model.
Ford stated that they are keeping in line with their planned Q3 production. The good news for SIRI investors here is that most OEM’s are keeping inventory levels much tighter than years past in an effort to improve cash flow. Lower inventory means that Sirius XM will not have subsidized chip-sets sitting in radios that have not yet reached dealers. This new strategy by OEM’s will carry long term benefits for SIRI as it will also improve cash flow for satellite radio. There is a ways to go before we get to auto sales of 15 or 16 million per year, but with about 12 million this year and an anticipated 13.5 million next year, the horizons for SIRI are getting brighter.
Position – Long Sirius XM Radio, No Position Ford
I am having a hard time figuring out why people would want a stationary unit. Why not get one subscription for a mobile unit and take it with you – for your house, boat, kitchen, basement, etc.
I think we need to start tracking mobile units more, i.e. iPhone, Xmp3, etc.
Following car sales seems strange going forward, unless your tracking cars sold with audio input jacks.
Hi, have a question:
you know how many people are concerned about rising cost of subscriber acquisition?…isn’t that thinking contrary to Mel’s statement that 70% of every dollar is now going directly to the bottom line? Did I misunderstand something?
Doesn’t that mean that yes, costs increase by way of 30cents on every dollar, but the investment returns 70cents or in other words a 230% return on the 30cent/dollar investment?
what am I missing?
thanks for helping to clarify
phil….
in reviewing the Q1 financial data Siri had revenue of $663,784,000. Net income was $41,958,000. I think you misunderstood Mel.
maybe I did, but if I remember correctly, he made the statement after reaching…what was it 19mil subs or something like that. He was saying from that point on 70cents would go to bottom line. I’ll need to find the video clip/article on that again. Maybe I am just WAY off!
I appreciate your realistic and conservative position on siri future. However, today I would not be too conservative in my siri outlook. The main reason for reservation about siri’s future has been its pace of growth. Most of the analysts treated it as turtle’s pace. Even Karmazin was way too cautious in his growth predictions. This may not be longer the case. If Q3 and Q4 sub growth matches Q2, and this is quite possible in particular for Q4, we are dealing with a very robust pace of siri growth between 10% at the lower and 15% at the higher end. We should not by any means underestimate this outcome. We have every reason to believe that this will be the case in the next 12 months. If this happens, we will be dealing with a true phenomenal siri turnaround and the company valuations should change dramatically. We do not have too long to wait to prove the geniuses from the “street” and “morningstars” not just wrong but blatantly incompetent. I just wonder how they will be saving their faces, or maybe they do not have anyhting to save.
v.l-
I would not be surprised to see Sirius approach 30% annual EBITDA growth in the next few years. Mel always predicts 20% but usually exceeds it.
Spencer has never followed EBITDA growth in radio companies so he doesn’t comprehend how Sirius can do it. He is quite simply wrong. Mel’s revenue growth plus cost cutting is pretty easy to predict. But Spencer doesn’t get it at all. He basically looks at sub numbers. Mel made a $1 billion positive turnaround on EBITDA from 2008 to 2009 from a a negative 500 mil + EBITDA in 2008 to a positive 450 mil+ EBITDA in 2009. All done with no sub growth at all. Watch what happens with sub growth.
always the insults….
1. I do understand EBITDA as well as why it is used. I understand the positives of it as well as the drawbacks.
2. I do not look only at sub numbers. I look at the whole picture. Subs are how this company gets revenue though. If there is no sub growth, there is no growth unless they raise prices, and that will be getting more challenging.
3. The swing between 2008 and 2009 was due to merger synergies, and severe cost cutting. You should know this by now.
4. EBITDA in Q1 was $158 million. It will be lower in Q2. The company with new sub guidance has yet to raise 2010 EBITDA guidance ($550 million). Going from $450 million in 2009 to $550 million in 2010 is not a 30% pace it is about a 20% pace. A company can not grow exponentially for very long. It simply is not possible.
Sorry you are wrong Spencer. Cost cutting produces EBITDA growth. You think the cost cutting is over? Please.
Revenue growth also produces EBITDA growth. You think the revenue initiatives stop with the Royalty pass through? (which incidentally you were wrong about as well as it is recovering royalty payments going back a few years, its not just revenue in, revenue out for the current year)
The revenue growth and cost cutting initiatives have just begun. You never followed radio Spencer. You have zero experience in following Infinity, Westwood One, CBS radio and Viacom. You don’t understand the radio business.
Yes I am expecting close to 30% annual EBITDA growth over the next few years, including this year. I think you have no handle on the growth numbers. Radio companies don’t stop exponential growth when they just turn EBITDA positive and haven’t produced 2 years of positive EBITDA numbers yet. Think about what you are posting. They haven’t done 2 years of positive numbers yet!
Do you comprehend how much cost cutting there will be from auto OEM and sports deal negotiations and how much revenue initiatives with FCC price freezing coming off in summer 2011? No you don’t. You are factoring sub numbers in your EBITDA. In my opinion you understand very little about the radio business Spencer. Your growth predictions to me are based on pretty much nothing.
By the way Spencer – Sirius already upped its EBITDA projection to 575 million from the original 550 million you posted. That was done after quarter one results.
575 million is about a 27% increase from last year but I still expect them to pulverize that number pretty easily.
Muscle 13,
What you are saying makes absolute sense and I agree. However, Spencer does nort deserve such rash critique because his postings are simply very conservative like Mel’s statements whereas I believe he definitle knows what he is talking about.
Concerning the essence, I completely agree that you can grow EBIDTA both throught Savings and Growth. I would not be so confident that siri has not used savings a lot. They certainly have. However, they have two obvious areas where they can continue saving big. One is contract re-negotiations as they come up and the other is merger of their business in terms of satellites/platforms. But both are spread in time, in particular, the second one is years from now. Another two great areas of savings is revitalization of the retail market, if this is possible, and conquering the used car market that is much more plausible. Used car market is extremely attractive because major costs have already been incurred and there is no revenue sharing. I personally think that within the next few years due to saving synergies and balanced growth siri can make operational expenses practically fixed, including music roaylty fees, at under annual 2B due to the listed synergies. Anything above that number will be EBIDTA and consequently Profit. Having in mind the above, I believe that siri can reach as early as this year EBIDTA growth at 30% or higher. I expect their EBIDTA at over 1B as early as 2012. This is why I am not so worried about them paying off their debt. The true problem is the number of outstanding shares that will be much more difficult to resolve without an eventual r/s. But I do not believe this will happen any time soon. The company is just gathering steam and their future looks really attractive for investment. This year will show.
v.l
Spencer seems like a very good guy. It’s nothing personal. I just think he doesn’t know much about the radio business at all.
Personally I think as OEM deals come up for renewal those will be huge cost savings but there is a slew of more cost cutting that can add to EBITDA in addition.
1. I know plenty about radio. The business is not rocket science. I have owned several businesses over the years. Many concepts do not differ that greatly.
2. I am well aware that cost savings help EBITDA.
3. This is not the 90’s. Mel grew other businesses through expansion and aquisitions moreso than cost cutting. He is well known for cutting costs, but it was adding more stations and more billboards that drove the growth.
4. This is satellite radio, not terrestrial radio. It is a subscription model. What happened in terrestrial radio in the 90’s is not going to happen to satellite. That being said, I have a full understanding of radio.
4. OEM deals can present savings. Toyota, Nissan, Honda, etc all expire in 2018….years from now. GM has already been renegotiated. Ford and Chrysler expire 4 years from now. If there are any savings from these deals they are 5 years away at least.
5. Instead of just saying there is a slew of cost cutting why not give some examples. Have you seen the cost savings that have already transpired? They have already been substantial. This is how they shifted to become EBITDA positive in the first place.
6. 30% growth each year for three years would deliver $747.5 million in 2011, $971.75 million in 2012, $1.263 billion in 2013, 1.642 billion in 2014, and $2.134 billion in 2015. That is very aggressive given their current business model. Unless they shift something substantial in the model it would be very hard to accomplish.
7. Sports deals are already re-framed for the most part. NBA and NHL are cheap already. NFL expires this year. They got guaranteed money from television even if there is no season next year. While SIRI may save some money , it will not be easy. Baseball has another year left, the MLB has the option on 3 more years at $60 million per year. No savings there for at least 4 years.
8. The FCC could tell the company that they can not increase price. This is an issue in the FCC coutrt, not Sirius XM. In addition, the elasticity in price is not what it used to be. They are charging less now than they were a year ago. ARPU of $10.63 last Q without the royalties….that was down $0.35 cents from the Q before.
The bottom line is that I know what I am talking about, and see the challenges ahead for this company. It is no cakewalk. I project EBITDA to go down this quarter from last. Do you agree?
Yes, they can have a couple of years of 20% EBITDA growth, but it simply can not go on forever. It does not work that way.
I 100% disagree with you Spencer. I believe they easily surpass 30% EBITDA growth this year ( Sirius already predict over 27% and most analysts are over their number) and organically they can grow close to 30% per year.
The FCC price freeze comes off next summer and basically Sirius can do what they want. The FCC cannot tell the company what to do. They agreed to a 3 year freeze. That’s it. I see tiering for premium very similar to cable. It is also my opinion there will be tiering for premium on internet apps (Howard?)
EBITDA could go down this quarter and they could still surpass 600 million in EBITDA this year. 4th quarter is always the EBITDA quarter.
Cost cutting is Mel’s forte. Westwood One grew EBITDA organically with NO station acquistions. Did you read that correctly – no radio station acquisitions and no billboard acquisitions.
What did David Frear say on the earnings call – costing cutting is in Sirius DNA.
Here are Sirius’ own EBITDA projections from 2008. Notice 2009 projection was only 300 million. Notice over the 4 years EBITDA growth was predicted at close to 50% annualized. That’s correct, 50% annualized.
http://investor.sirius.com/rel.....eID=346082
Muscle….
Real quick because I have get sleep to get on a plane tomorrow.
The FCC price freeze does not come off automatically. The agreement was to a 3 year price freeze which would be reviewed by the FCC next summer. This fall the FCC will open a 6 month comment period on whether Sirius XM can increase pices, whether or not the FCC should still control a price freeze. Simply stated, if the FCC says they want to keep the price frozen they can. It is not an automatic removal. Sirius XM has to present a case that the FCC will vote on.
From what I understand it is automatic. I don’t believe there is any way the FCC can stop it.
it is not automatic….read the filing and you will see this. The FCC is opening a comment period this fall on this issue. Believe me….i read the document as recently as last week.
Just read it. You are correct.
In light of iPhone radio apps and other smartphone radio emerging after the merger I seriously doubt there is any argument that can be made to the FCC to keep the price freeze. I think it’s a virtual automatic.
Why argue with me….You know I will be right (:-) just kidding). I think that the price freeze will come off, but they will have to do a song and dance to make it happen. With a six month comment period you know what most of the comments will be.
That being said, the ability for Sirius XM to charge more has diminished each year since 2008. The elasticity in price simply is not what it was. In fact, I don’t think you have heard Mel mention that term since the merger.
If there are services out there that are priced so much less, the company will have a hard time with it. “Competing against free” was a term Mel used a lot during the merger process. When “free” was terrestrial radio, that was an easy thing to say. Pandora and Slacker blow the doors off of terrestrial in terms of music and will and do present significant competition. Time will tell
Cable Tiering – Premium services. It is only logical.
In my opinion Howard is the HBO of sat Radio. You know the Baseball packages and Football premium packages on DirecTV.
I would be shocked if there wasn’t more tiering done. It is how cable makes the money!
Look you are a nice guy Spencer. I talked to you several times. I have no reason to fight with you. I just vehemently disagree with you about the radio business and I believe the numbers over the next few years will prove me correct.
Remember when all the other blog guys had no idea about EBITDA valuation and I was laughed at. Well I was 100% correct about how every single media analyst uses EV/EBITDA and not eps. They all should have laughed at their own ignorance. Watch how I am right about growth.
You are giving me sirius’ projections from 2008?
Here is what is on your link:
(Subscribers in millions; dollar amounts in billions)
Subscribers
2009 – 20.6 – They are not there yet and it is 2010
2010 – 22.1 – There is no way they make this 2011 – 24.0
2012 – 26.2
2013 – 28.4
You will note that revenue derived from these 2 million added subscribers per year (@ $11 per month each) would be an additional $264,000,000 per year in new revenue.
Revenue
2009 – $2.7 – they came in at $2.47
2010 – $3.0
2011 – $3.4
2012 – $3.8
2013 – $4.1
Adjusted – EBITDA*
2009 – $0.3 on the heals of major cost cutting they got to $0.45
2010 – $0.6 they are projecting under this now but it is not at the 50% rate they were looking for. 2011 – $0.9 – this would be 50%
2012 – $1.3 – this is below 50%
2013 – $1.5 – this is 15% growth.
Free Cash Flow*
2009 – $0.0
2010 – $0.4
2011 – $0.6
2012 – $1.0
2013 – $1.4
The bulk of their EBITDA will come from subscriber revenue. This is a FACT. They are way off on the projections you provided. You can tell this by looking at the projected sub growth vs, the projected revenue.
You say I know nothing about radio, but I can tell you this. The company did massive cost savings and got a royalty charge added to obtain a massive bump in Ebitda. The company was relying on 10% sub growth per year. If they can get that back on track it will help. However, the cost savings over the next few years are not very substantial.
Yes growth will happen, but it can not remain at 20% plus for very long with the current model.
You wrote – Adjusted – EBITDA*
2009 – $0.3 on the heals of major cost cutting they got to $0.45
2010 – $0.6 they are projecting under this now but it is not at the 50% rate they were looking for. 2011 – $0.9 – this would be 50%
2012 – $1.3 – this is below 50%
2013 – $1.5 – this is 15% growth.
Spencer since when is going from 0.3 to 0.6 equal to 50%??? That is 100% growth.
Going from 300 million (0.3 in the table) to $1.5 billion from 2009 to 2013 is an annualized 50% growth rate. Do the math man.
Why argue with me? Really, what is behind this? You know I’m going to be correct. This isn’t rocket science.
sorry….was working from $450 million they really did do to $600 million. I simply rounded to 50%.
Of course 3 to 6 is 100% growth…..that is obvious.
Why argue with you???? Because I am sick of you saying that I don’t have a clue about the business when clearly I do. I am tired of you saying I didn’t follow “radio” in the 90’s. The 90’s do not matter now….this is 2010. Old radio is a different business model in so many ways it is almost scary. What Mel did in the past was great, but that was then and this is now. Back then I followed EMC and Rambus, and much better than I would have with any Mel run company. Back then I also followed Iridium closely. It too was a satellite driven business. It showed a lot of promise, ran up, then went under. Look at Worldspace. Sirius XM got past the hard part. Now they have to prove it out….however, there are many tools that Mel had in prior business models that he does not have in this one.
You can debate numbers, positions, and all of that, but saying I do not know anything does get personal. I don’t take kindly to someone saying I am clueless about a subject that I am very well informed on and have been following closely for over 5 years.
Ebitda is a metric that essentially was created to ensure that a company could service their debt. Expansion costs money, so by ignoring that money, so to get people to look at numbers absent such costs helps the sell side.
You can only cut costs so much. Growth is the real driver.
“Back then I followed EMC and Rambus, and much better than I would have with any Mel run company.”
Westwood One went from a few pennies to over $50 per share. Ininity went for $17 to $170 per share.
Not understanding Mel’s background in running radio companies is a major weakness in all the blogs. That’s the main reason you don’t understand the power of cost cutting and how he drives EBITDA.
You seem to be a nice and a smart guy Spencer. I think you have no concept about how radio companies grow EBITDA. This is RADIO!
Also I am looking at those revenue and sub number projections from 2008. Obviously they didn’t think that car sales would drop to the lows of around 10.4 million last year. Normal is around 16 million but they were probably projecting much lower than that.
If you look at the rev and sub numbers they are running about 1 year behind. But interestingly enough on the all important EBITDA # they crushed the 2009 number and look to be right where there should be this year. They are not running 1 year behind.
And we all know this is valued on EBITDA growth.
Your initial comment was that all I considered was subscribers. That is not at all the case, I look at all of the numbers. However, I put a lot of weight on subscribers because that is where the VAST MAJORITY of their revenue comes from. If they can not grow subscribers they will not grow EBITDA. Growing EBITDA because of the merger synergies, cost cutting and a royalty fee did the trick to get things rolling. They don’t have a new acquisition at this point, have cut costs accept to what they can at this point, and the royalty fee is set. It is down to subscribers or price increase. With the competitive landscape, they will have a hard time increasing prices. The fact is that they have been lowering them for some time now with special deal to retain subscribers.
“If they can not grow subscribers they will not grow EBITDA”
Cost cutting and revenue initiatives will be a MAJOR factor in growing EBITDA the next couple of years. They have not yet begun to scratch the surface in these 2 areas. You are 100% wrong and the numbers over the next couple of years will prove it.
Now I have another question that was brought up in this thread. Acquisition. Besides Sirius is there an audio entertainment company out there with any significant revenue that is growing EBITDA at close to 30% per year? If there is one (which I doubt) Mel should grab it.
Would Sirius ever consider buying Pandora or Slacker? I just don’t believe Mel thinks those companies can grow Revenue and EBITDA fast enough. Does the internet radio business model really work? Does the HD radio business model really work? Is there another radio business model besides satellite out there that will grow? I don’t really believe there is. I would like to see EBITDA accretive acquisition opportunities. Where are they?
Sirius should not buy Pandora or Slacker when they can simply take the best of both and create it themselves. Sirius XM needs a major overhaul of their internet service. They can and should do so much more.
The Internet radio model does work, and could become a major force in the next few years as the proliferation of wireless continues. Pandora has 60 million users with an average listening time of 1.8 hours per day. Granted many of those users are not really using the service. Slacker premium is only $50 per year, and lets users customize stations, hear comedy, and now even hear news (see satellite radio playground article about their deal with ABC News).
The fact is that this is a major area where the company can grow…..They just have not done it yet. IMO they need to do this to grow and be ready for Google move into the space.
This debate is not over. I will be going back and refuting most of what you say.
Sirius has a great internet service AND the internet radio model since 1994 has not worked. Sirius makes $70 per user per year in revenue. Pandora makes $2 per user per year in revenue. What is Pandora’s EBITDA growth rate? What is it?? If it was so great where is their IPO???
Good debate !!!
Are you guys married ?
LMAO !!!
I haven’t been able to listen to the radio show in a while because of family health issues 🙁
But quite honestly Spencer should have me on for an hour and we should go over all the areas and curse at each other.
Guys,
I enjoyed your debate tremendously, in particular, because you are on the same side and throw a lot of factual data unlike so called analysts and paper smearers. Getting personal because of true opinion differences is unfair unlike getting personal when morningstars and other genuiuses smear the company. Spencer is certainly not the kind of guy and he does his absolute best to treat siri as objectively as possible based on FACTS. However, Spenser’s approach is still very conservative and his is one scenario.
I do not want to come across as someone with rosy glasses but definitely there are different scenarios of how fast siri is going to grow. I believe that in the next two to three years there may be faster growth of EBIDTA than revenue ratio wise. With time both parameters will be tied much more stronger and of course revenue will be the main growth driver of EBIDTA. This is why there is a lot of reason to believe that siri will most likely exceed its EBIDTA goals from now till 2014 whereas its revenue will be as they predicted. Next year alone, there are two significant areas of savings – renegotiating HS and NFL contracts. Combined they may give siri 30M at lower end and 50M at higher end per year. This is a lot of money. As to sub growth, discussions will be more meaningful after Q3 and Q4. If they maintain the trend of 500K subs per Q, they will hit it right on the money or better. It is also extremely important for FCF where these additions come from because this will determine siori’s cost of business. Obvoiusly significant non-OEM additions are a huge driver of EBIDTA and fcf. I still believe that siri’s unrivaled strength is in the car where their true competitor is terrestrail radio. Pandoras in the car with advertisement are the same or even worse than terrestrial radio because they are not even local.
“Pandoras in the car with advertisement are the same or even worse than terrestrial radio because they are not even local.”
As Mel has stated publicly the internet radio business model in the car (once it gets there in any significant penetration) is completely unproven.
Its a big question – Can Pandora make significant EBITDA in the car based on advertising. Can it work? Who knows?
I have another question. What exactly is wrong with Sirius internet service ( Besides of course Howard) where Spencer says it needs a major overhaul. It’s available on the iPhone, Blackberry and Droid. I listen to it at home and in my office. It has over 120 stations. My wife even listens to it on the TTR1 in the kitchen while she makes dinner. It is great. What overhaul is needed???? To me all it needs is Howard.
Let us be honest. If and when siri executes a price increase at at least $2 mid next year, we are talking about 0.5B to the bottom line. In this scenario everybody will have to overhaul their projections. This is going to be a revolutionary change in revenue, EBIDTA and FCF within 12 months after the increase. I believe that they have honorably met all FCF requirements blatantly imposed on them and deserve such increase for the value they provide. Every pundit on every corner keeps hammering in investor’s heads that satellite radio is a discretionary service. Are they going to turn around in their usual hypocracy and tell us that this is no longer the case when siri decides to institute a long deserved raise. There is no argument in the world that could bar them from executing a modest $2 raise. Even if in the worst case scenario, which is very unlikely, siri stood to lose 1M subs, the raise is still worth it. Siri’s service is significantly underpriced, and they should not be scared to death of so called free pandoras or boring terrestrial service whose value to most of siri subs is a big ZERO. Once I got siri six years ago, whenever I turn on terresrial radio by accident, I want to throw up. I am sure that there are at least 16M siri subs like me, and there will be many more who will never consider abandoning the service for an extra $2 per month or $24 a year that equals six cups of coffee.
Interesting. Do you think they will immediately do this as soon as the price freeze comes off? You may be right. I was thinking about tiering but you are saying it will be an across the board increase.
You made a great point about Mel. He is a genuis and he definitely knows his business. With my business experience and general knowledge of what is going on from the point of pricing in mobile phones, sat TV, internet and cable services, siri’s price at $15 a month for what used to be $12.95 is very very modest for its value and should not ruin its users’ monthly budget. Of course siri should continue all kinds of generous and long-term promotions for new customers and improvements in tiers but the general increase of $2 should be applicable across the board. You either like the service or you do not because it is still quite discretionary. The price is quite affordable to a very broad demographic because it is truly modest compared with mobile phone, inetrnet, satellite and cable fees that run into budget sensitive numbers between $500.0 to over $2,000.00 a year. These services by the way are also discretionary to different degrees. If $2 more a month in addition to 12.95 is going to break somebody’s back, this is not a siri customer anyway.
Excellent post. But I am curious whether a $2 across the board increase may be too much considering the $2 royalty pass through fee that has already been instituted.
Perhaps $1 across the board makes more sense?
Also I am absolutely mystified why Spencer thinks the cost cutting is over? It’s Mel’s biggest strength.
I remember when the merger was going though the govt decision process and Sirius hired an independent firm that said cost savings would be in the multiple billions over the years.
Some analyst estimates I believe were over 4 or 5 billion! Cost cutting doesn’t just end after a year or 2. I don’t understand Spencer’s thinking. I really don’t.
C
I am with V. L I would not think of NOT having my Sirius . In fact they can jump it up $5 or $10 a month next year and I am there . Now I know that they will not and would stand to lose many subs if they did + bad propaganda , but I value my time . It is precious , a few years ago I was diagnosed with lung cancer and given a few months to live since traditional medicine gave up on me I tried alternative natural healing and survived , so to me every minute of every day is a precious thing . I refuse to spend even one second of my time listening to commercials no matter the cost that to me is wasted time on terrestrial radio 20 minutes of every 1/2 hour is wasted time ! That may sound silly to some but it is the way I look at life now . I do what I want , when I want , how I want , if that day comes again that I am told I am dying in X amount of days I will not look back and regret that I wasted time .
what a FANTASTIC discussion! Thanks Spencer and Muscle (btw Muscle I have missed your posts and look forward to reading more:)
Thanks. I am usually on the AOL message boards, but real life has stopped me from following Sirius closely in the last couple of months. I will be back there soon. Family health comes first.
But I appreciate the compliment. One day soon when things calm down in my life I will call up Spencer’s show and yell at him 🙂 Hopefully he doesn’t get angry.
Muscle you should start your own siriusxm website or join with one of the other sites.
Nah. I am not a blogger. Just a guy who has followed Mel’s companies for a couple of decades. Thanks though.
I am much more positive on Sirius than most of the bloggers. I believe in EBITDA growth. I really do. I have seen Mel do it with several companies I invested in before.
I would like to have a screaming match with Spencer one day on the radio. I think it would be fun. I have spoken with Spencer on the phone several times. I have a great deal of respect for his intelligence and objectivity. I just really really disagree.
One thing to really watch for in August is Sirius’ Xmas retail preview. Remember last year they announced 2 of their best radios yet – SkyDock and TTR1 in August. I am hoping they have another preview at the same time this year especially with a 4th quarter that possibly could mark the re-signing of Howard to a new contract. Xmas retail could be huge.