We knew we would hear from Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes sooner or later. With the release of Sirius XM's preliminary proxy for their annual meeting, Wienkes has once again slated Sirius XM Radio as a "Convicted Sell".
In his report Wienkes notes, "The proposals seem to run contrary to CEO Mel Karmazin’s 2Q08 conference call commentary 'we have no plans for a reverse split.' That said, times change and the proposals are unsurprising given +$1bn of 2009 debt maturities and difficult credit markets set against a business model that is still consuming cash. No change to estimates or price target."
Wienkes believes that Sirius XM Radio will have no choice but to bring on another round of dilution, pending shareholder permission—"either via an increased proportion of company FCF (reset debt terms) flowing to debt holders, net new equity issuance, or both."
The fact that Wienkes is still bearish on satellite radio should not come as a surprise to anyone. With the credit crisis still keeping markets imbalanced, there has been no real news or change that would have turned the analyst positive.
Position - Long SIRI