Sirius XM Release 5 year Guidance – Negotiating Refinancing Of Debt
As anticipated here on SiriusBuzz Sirius XM radio came out with a press release today on the Q3 reporting. The company will issue their quarterly report Monday, November 10, 2008, and will host a conference call the same day at 4:30 PM.
Perhaps more important than the guidance provided by Sirius XM Radio is the reason that the guidance was issued. The company states, “The company is in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes due 2009. In connection with these discussions, the company is releasing the material elements of its five-year operational and financial forecast.”
Refinancing of the debt has been a huge weight on the stock ever since the financial market collapse two months ago, and any news that a successful refinancing is happening could serve as a boost to the price per share.
Among the news was the release of guidance for the next five years.
| 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | |
| Subscribers | 20.6 | 22.1 | 24.0 | 26.2 | 28.4 |
| Revenue | $2.7 | $3.0 | $3.4 | $3.8 | $4.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA* | $0.3 | $0.6 | $0.9 | $1.3 | $1.5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.0 | $0.4 | $0.6 | $1.0 | $1.4 |
In the past Mel Karmazin has always maintained conservative guidance. Under Promise and Over Deliver has been the track record. Time will tell how aggressive or conservative this guidance is. There is little doubt that a weak OEM channel has had, and will have an impact on this company, as this is the method by which most subscribers are derived.
Position: Long SIRI
Hope,
M.Hartleib thought he was on to a company that a lot of manipulation was going through.
However, we are still be manipulated.
I honestly believe, based on the report that shows highest shorted companies list. Us being number 2. That many expert short traders take advantage of companies that have large negative or no positive earnings.
But in addition. MSFT, has been shorted for years. Why? I have no idea. It has lots of cash etc. Yet it still appears on the list.
Hedge funds and short traders have had a great time of it this year. And without a big upswing in the economy they will continue to rule.
I tried shorting lvlt two days ago when it hit 1.40. Unfortunately I have a 401k. So I need a margin account.
Why not join them for a while. They appear to be making a lot of money.
i found this post…make any sense?
This will be the first SIRI Conference Call I can remember to be held after hours rather than in the morning. I think there are two possible explanations….. Common wisdom has always been that you reveal good news in the morning, to affect trading, and delay bad news until after hours. That doesn’t seem to fit this time since earnings will be revealed in the morning, revenue and EBITDA guidance is holding up, and slowing sub growth has already been disclosed….. The other, and perhaps more likely explanation is that something significant is scheduled for Monday and SIRI wants to command attention when they make the announcement. Could that be refinancing, particular after the strange timing of the announcement of projections?
I’m clinging to the hope that Mel is setting a trap for shortie. New financing should do the trick.
Great Strategy by the CEO?
The shorties will start thinking tonite!
SO CAL
Thanks but no thanks…i dont short stocks..that is just against my grain to try and damage a company just to make $$$.
siriushope,
I was pretty much on the price all day… I don’t know where those last trades come from. My guess is it’s like closing the register at the end of the day…. margins calls and day traders closing out their positions and holding cash over night. If you go on level ll in the morning at 9:20 you;ll see them open their register with 100 share bids at .01 and right up to opening their positions tighten and share amounts get real.
Hope
I have taken you point of view with shorting much to my financial demise.
I would however, have no problem cashing in on a nice short of GS.
Thanks COS