Sirius XM Release 5 year Guidance – Negotiating Refinancing Of Debt
As anticipated here on SiriusBuzz Sirius XM radio came out with a press release today on the Q3 reporting. The company will issue their quarterly report Monday, November 10, 2008, and will host a conference call the same day at 4:30 PM.
Perhaps more important than the guidance provided by Sirius XM Radio is the reason that the guidance was issued. The company states, “The company is in discussions with several financial institutions regarding a financing to replace its 2-1/2% Convertible Notes due 2009. In connection with these discussions, the company is releasing the material elements of its five-year operational and financial forecast.”
Refinancing of the debt has been a huge weight on the stock ever since the financial market collapse two months ago, and any news that a successful refinancing is happening could serve as a boost to the price per share.
Among the news was the release of guidance for the next five years.
| 2009E | 2010E | 2011E | 2012E | 2013E | |
| Subscribers | 20.6 | 22.1 | 24.0 | 26.2 | 28.4 |
| Revenue | $2.7 | $3.0 | $3.4 | $3.8 | $4.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA* | $0.3 | $0.6 | $0.9 | $1.3 | $1.5 |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.0 | $0.4 | $0.6 | $1.0 | $1.4 |
In the past Mel Karmazin has always maintained conservative guidance. Under Promise and Over Deliver has been the track record. Time will tell how aggressive or conservative this guidance is. There is little doubt that a weak OEM channel has had, and will have an impact on this company, as this is the method by which most subscribers are derived.
Position: Long SIRI
we were up .03 earlier today and now just under .01 near the close and over 48 million traded…very puzzling daily event.
The number of stocks that are victims of so-called naked shorting has plummeted several-fold in recent weeks.
Data published by the Nasdaq stock exchange, for example, show just 56 stocks on its naked short selling watch list this week, compared with almost 500 at the start of the SEC’s ban on naked short selling a list of 1,000 stocks.
anyone know where can we find out if we were on the list?
2,778,945 shares was last trade and caused the stock to drop from up t at .28 to .26…What the fuck goes on last trades everyday so big and destructive.
Who would trade that many shares at close?
SiriusHope
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Tr.....OThreshold
SIRI is not on the list – but that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re not being manipulated by strategic FTDs.
I think they are last minute margin calls. It wasn’t just us. The volume for the DOW jumped at the last minute too.
thanks WIN and JON
COS you had it right until last trade today.
Earlier you recall you told me….
That tells me that their trying to move the SP to over .28 where they will relocate their 250-300K block of shares too.
Hope,
Buyins.net does a nice job with the naked shorting lists.
Why do we get manipulated?
I actually once thought that someone hated H.Stern, so much, that they made it their lifes ambition to take the company down………..
Think he’s pissed anyone off enough for that to happen?????????
after just 20 minutes after hours to day look at this…look at the shares.
After Hours Trade Reporting
After Hours
Last: $ .28
After Hours
High: $ .288
After Hours
Volume: 1,816,963
After Hours
Low: $ .26
SOCAL
I really dont have an opinion why we get manipulated. It happens everyday at last few trades.
Hope,
M.Hartleib thought he was on to a company that a lot of manipulation was going through.
However, we are still be manipulated.
I honestly believe, based on the report that shows highest shorted companies list. Us being number 2. That many expert short traders take advantage of companies that have large negative or no positive earnings.
But in addition. MSFT, has been shorted for years. Why? I have no idea. It has lots of cash etc. Yet it still appears on the list.
Hedge funds and short traders have had a great time of it this year. And without a big upswing in the economy they will continue to rule.
I tried shorting lvlt two days ago when it hit 1.40. Unfortunately I have a 401k. So I need a margin account.
Why not join them for a while. They appear to be making a lot of money.
i found this post…make any sense?
This will be the first SIRI Conference Call I can remember to be held after hours rather than in the morning. I think there are two possible explanations….. Common wisdom has always been that you reveal good news in the morning, to affect trading, and delay bad news until after hours. That doesn’t seem to fit this time since earnings will be revealed in the morning, revenue and EBITDA guidance is holding up, and slowing sub growth has already been disclosed….. The other, and perhaps more likely explanation is that something significant is scheduled for Monday and SIRI wants to command attention when they make the announcement. Could that be refinancing, particular after the strange timing of the announcement of projections?
I’m clinging to the hope that Mel is setting a trap for shortie. New financing should do the trick.
Great Strategy by the CEO?
The shorties will start thinking tonite!
SO CAL
Thanks but no thanks…i dont short stocks..that is just against my grain to try and damage a company just to make $$$.
siriushope,
I was pretty much on the price all day… I don’t know where those last trades come from. My guess is it’s like closing the register at the end of the day…. margins calls and day traders closing out their positions and holding cash over night. If you go on level ll in the morning at 9:20 you;ll see them open their register with 100 share bids at .01 and right up to opening their positions tighten and share amounts get real.
Hope
I have taken you point of view with shorting much to my financial demise.
I would however, have no problem cashing in on a nice short of GS.
Thanks COS