CITI Maintains Buy On Sirius XM
“We believe SIRI’s recent stock performance is a reflection of auto weakness, credit issues, and diminishing consumer confidence. These overhanging issues have made it more difficult for investors to appreciate the SIRI’s long term value, which we now quantify using terminal cash flow analysis, long term sub estimates, and leverage assumptions.”
The analyst outlines three scenarios for investors to consider:
- Using a conservative 7x multiple on terminal cash flow per sub we believe SIRI would be worth $1.41 (20%penetration) in a worst case.
- The company could be worth up to $4.57 (50% penetration) in an aggressive case.
- A more realistic scenario (35% penetration by 2018) suggests that the stock is worth $3.00.
Wible does recognize near term issues that can weigh on the stock, identifying OEM sales and the re-financings as issues that give concern, but also as potential positives once auto sales turn around, and the refinancing happens. Wible has made a conservative assumption by calculating that the $300 mil due in Feb will be funded by an equity offering. He sees improvements in FCF due to merger synergies may put SIRI in a solid position to refinance the remaining $750 mil due later in 2009.
Position: Long SIRI
i hope he is right, all this sirius news is making me crazy.
Does this mean that Citigroup could now be a prime lender of the fiancing or am I missing the picture?
I hate to be cynical…but maybe Citi is playing the part of the “catch” in the “pigeon drop”.
Thats “Grifters” speak for “hooking” a “Mark” (us Sirius shareholders) by floating this “BUY RATING” in the midst of all the negative press from the other grifters Goldman and Merrill.
I mean $3.75 is not alot….but compared with Goldman’s friggin .50 cent target….it’s downright HUGE!
Citi did the same thing if you recall when Goldman first downgraded Sirius with a $1.50 price target and everyone freaked. But Citi’s price target of $9 was so much higher that we thought we were being SMART by saying…WOW EVEN IF IT GOES TO ONLY $5 or $6 I’ll MAKE OUT OK.
Admit it….it worked. We all stayed in. And look what happened.
You’d think after being fooled like this numerous times. Beaten down with false hope after false hope…that we’d have learned by now.
But you just KNOW when people read the Citi price target of $3.75 they were thinking….OK I CAN AVERAGE DOWN SOME MORE AND GET OUT IF IT JUST GOES TO $2 or $2.50!!!
HECK….even I thought that!! Part of me is still confusing my LOVE for the product with my HOPE for the stock.
Like a dear in the headlights I am.
But I’ve got no more money to average down with. I’m done. I’ve already averaged my price down to $2.50…..and that seems like an ETERNITY away.
I could knock it down to $2 by just throwing $1,000 more into it. But I just CAN’T bring myself to do it. EVERYTIME I did that in the past….I was SO SURE it wouldn’t drop lower…..and EVERY TIME it DID.
I know that soon as I threw that $1,000 into it….the stock would drop to .50 cents. I just know it.
So I am just waiting this one out. NO MORE MONEY until I hear some friggin news. Until Congress passes this STUPID Bill….and Mel announces some FRIGGIN refinancing deal.
ARGH! lol….oh well….what can ya do? 🙂
Get ready for ANOTHER 52 week low, WTF
I can’t believe the Republicans. Their party got us in this mess. And now they have the GALL to blame the failure to pass the bail out bill on the DEMOCRATS??? WTF???
2 FRIGGIN 3rds of the Republicans voted AGAINST the BILL!!!!! How can they blame the Dems who voted in a majority FOR the Bill to pass!!! It’s FRIGGIN OUTRAGEOUS!!!
I don’t think Pelosi should have bashed the Republicans the way she did BEFORE the votes were cast….BUT the Republicans are the ones to blame here. For their failed leadership leading UP to the crisis…and NOW with their FAILURE to pass this bill.
They have just committed political suicide. This makes McCain look like a TOTAL failure as a leader. He marched into Washington and made a BIG show about HOW this had to pass…and 2 FRIGGIN 3rds of his party voted against it.
Nice going. What a bunch of bozos.
friggin,
i’ve read many of your views and I respect your knowledge, but this mess started back in 1995 with so called “Community Preservation Act” passed by liberals. Republicans tried to stop it many times but to no avail.This just didn’t happen under Bush. I’m also long SIRIUS and have been following MEL since my ex used to work for him years ago but I am beginning to think this “new market” passed him by, I hope I’m wrong, still have some faith but its waning.
Hey….shouldn’t ALL SHORT SELLING be banned right now? We are in the midst of a MASSIVE panic because of the Republicans BONE HEAD move today.
FEAR IS OFF THE CHARTS…..so WHY should Shorts be able to feed on this panic??? Shouldn’t the government step in and at LEAST BAN ALL SHORT SELLING??? Not just in the financials?
At least until the FRIGGIN CONGRESS can PASS A FRIGGIN BILL????
Citi might be the only ones standing when this is done!!!
This is really historic what is happening today.
This administration should be put on trial and hanged. If it wasnt for the kids Id pack up sell all my assets and move to a beach in Mexico. Is this is what life is all about?? Sometimes the simple things mean so much more. Fuck this rat race!! Im tired of it!! Hell with the sirius fund lets all buy an island somewhere.
i’d have to say at this point the outlook for the entire market is bleak in the near future. I would look for the dow to be around 9,000 within the next month or so.
I beleive in Sirius and it’s products, but at this point there may be a lot of companies going under that don’t deserve to in the near future.
Do you BELIEVE in Sirius’s luck tho? I mean if the FCC didn’t drag out the merger for nearly 2 FRIGGIN YEARS….the whole debt refinancing would have been dealt with by now, and although it still would have been TOUGH with this market crash…we would have stood a MUCH MUCH BETTER chance of weathering the storm.
I’m with Dave. I am SO FRIGGIN SICK of Government. After this is over….I am going to travel around the world just to get away from it all. Clear the soul and do some surfing on some beach.
At this point I despise both parties….but the Republicans bear the BIGGEST responsibility. 8 years of Bush led to this moment….and then the Republicans TOTALLY FAILED to pass what was SUPPOSE to be a Bi-Partisan Bill. They FRIGGIN LIED and then had the GALL to blame a speech by Pelosi??????
They ACTUALLY used that as the REASON they didn’t get the votes??? They were willing to play Russian roulette with the American people because their FEELINGS were HURT???
Folks….you’ve just witnessed the DEATH of the Republican Party. McCain is dead. It’s over for them. DONE. FINISHED. BUH-BYE.
They failed today. The Dems will win in a landslide now. Unfortunately they will be left with the complete devastation BUSH and his policies caused.
I’m glad this bailout was rejected. It’s about time the greedy bastards who started this mess got their comeuppance. The bailout was nothing more than free cash to help offset the losses from their ridiculously margined investments. It’s too bad average retail investors are getting WIPED OUT because of this, not to mention taxpayers who end up losing, indirectly, anyway, but IT’S ABOUT TIME something drastic happens in the stock market that HOPEFULLY makes people realize IT’S WORSE THAN A FRIGGIN CASINO! Instead of the simple premise of letting people buy a stake in the future of a business, we have to decipher the wildly conflicting bullshit opinions of hundreds of analysts who contradict themselves on a regular basis. Until and unless stock prices are valued correctly – THAT INCLUDES THEIR IPO PRICES and we can figure out a way to make markets manipulation-proof – retail investors are simply gambling.
I agree with you in principle Merger Dude….but be careful what you wish for.
But the Dems put in stipulations in the Bill that would have protected the taxpayers and HELD the crooks accountable. Yes, this Bill would have bailed out ALOT of crooks who didn’t deserve it…but it would have drawn a VERY clear line in the sand. As Pelosi said to the crooks….after this…IT’S OVER.
I think the Bill would have been a good thing even tho on principle it was bad….and I wish it had passed. It would have helped the market and sent a clear message that business on Wall Street would FOREVER BE DIFFERENT. This Bill may have seemed like a bail out…but it was also LEVERAGE against the crooks for now and the future…that they could no longer get away with their bullshit.
To be honest…my stake in Sirius and Sirius’s dependence on this bill for attaining credit to refinance it’s debt is a factor in my thinking.
If I wasn’t such a long suffering Sirius Long…and had so much money riding on it securing refinancing…I probably wouldn’t care. I’d say FUCK it. FUCK THEM. LET EM GO UNDER. Let the US enter another GREAT DEPRESSION and SWEEP ALL the corruption from Wall Street to the White House.
Let the streets of America turn into a scene from the Road Warrior/Mad Max movies. I would have slapped on a pair of shoulder pads and shaved my hair into a mohawk adorned with feathers… hopped on my motorcycle equipped with machine gun turrets and roamed the desolate countryside in search of precious fuel. 🙂
Friggin You’ve got to be kidding me!!!!! How can the failure of the bill to pass be the Republicans fault? If this was such a good idea, why did 95 dems vote against it as well? Don’t get me wrong…Im just as sick of the crap as you are, but too put blame on either party is totally myopic. Keep posting. Your passion is great. Stay long Sirius. It will payoff!!!!! Someday!!!
Friggin Why should even 1 share (.62) worth of Sirius be given to the scumbags of ACORN in the bailout. I frankly do not want 1 cent of the profits/proceeds of the bailout to go to anyone or anything remotely connected to either party>
There really wasn’t any teeth in any of the enforcement. Paulson still maintained complete authority to do with the funds what he wished. Paulson could and would still provide the golden parachutes for all his buddies. The oversight committee included him and Bernanke and there were no provisions to penalize him for anything. Goldman Sachs stood to benefit more than anyone. Paulson had total access to the second $350 billion. An act of Congress and a 2/3 majority vote was required to prevent spending the second 350.
Looks like the Fed doesn’t much care what Congress does (h/t C&L):
The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression.
This dovetails with something I’ve been saying for a long time. In essence Bernanke can print as much money as he wants, so the idea that Hank had to have 700 billion NOW always seemed a bit strange to me. If Congress didn’t give Paulson the money, Bernanke could always just make it.
Mind you, apparently Bernanke did this before the final vote. I wonder if he knew at that point that it was going to fail and was trying to get ahead of the curve, or if he really thought a the bailout would cause 630 billion worth of turmoil. Not much of a vote of confidence.
Real world effect? The inflation which was beginning to die down will get boosted back up. Gas prices were dropping. Not so much now. This completely blows the Fed’s balance sheet out of the water, they are now past the 800 billion dollars they had (since that already spent over 500 billion). That puts it clearly into the “running the presses hot” stage. And as any conservative Chicago School economist can tell you, when you do that, inflation!
Helicopter Ben Bernanke has proved what he deserves his name. This is indeed the equivalent of dropping money from helicopters. Since the one thing everyone agrees is that this isn’t a liquidity crisis, it won’t solve the problem. But it may soothe the waters for a time. 630 billion is a LOT of money.
Hey I admit it, I am a liberal Dem all the way. My point is the Dems didn’t WANT to pass this bill. They didn’t want to bail out the very crooks who got us in this mess on the backs of the taxpayers. But they were TOLD if something wasn’t done, the banks would continue failing, no one would be able to access their funds from atms, that businesses wouldn’t be able to cover their payrolls, that loans would dry up along with credit. No one would lend to anyone and the world economy would collapse giving us another Great Depression.
So what did the Dems do? They tried to add things to ENSURE that the taxpayers would be paid back, that the crooks on Wall Street being bailed out couldn’t take BILLIONS in Golden Parachutes for their CEOS….AND they were ASSURED that the Republicans would meet them half way.
NO ONE wants to HAVE to do this…but if the very foundation of our economic survival is in danger….and action HAD to be taken….it was SUPPOSE to be a Bi PARTISAN MUTUAL burden.
2/3rds of the Dems voted for it. They upheld their end of the deal. And what do the Republicans do? 2/3rds voted AGAINST it. And had the GALL to blame the Dems for not passing it.
Yes…95 Dems voted against it. But REMEMBER…this was SUPPOSE to be an EQUAL burden. The Republicans didn’t uphold their part of the deal.
It is THIS BLATANT partisan political game on the Republicans part that I am PISSED off about.
Yes, the Dems have a majority….but THAT is NOT the POINT. The Republicans can’t have it BOTH ways.
They want the Dems to take the fall should anything go wrong. But they are playing a dangerous game.
The truth is on Principle I am against this…just as ANY right minded person would be. But if this Bill helped get the economy back on it’s feet I’m all for it. Because the Dems plan put in stipulations in the Bill that would have protected the taxpayers. And if this bail out worked as advertised, the government would MAKE money and the taxpayers wouldn’t have lost ANYTHING.
PLUS the banks from this point forward would be held accountable.
So on principle….BAD….but in reality the Bill may have been our best hope to get out of this mess.
And lets not forget who got us in this mess to begin with. BUSH.
For what it’s worth: Sirius Xm Radio Inc 0.67 +0.05 in after hours trading today. With so much downer news today a little upside for the soul….
friggen … BUSH? Ok, let’s pin it on a single (albeit presidential) person. How about regulators that allowed money grubbing banks to sell risky loans to way risky mortgagees??? Why do you think the FBI’s investigation list is taking on a life of its own? Word is not to look for supoenas and indictments within six months–but when they come…. So, uh, Bush? I will withhold judgment and encourage others to do likewise. Afterall, he didn’t pull a Pelosi today. Let’s all just hope we really don’t see our economy and way of life do a meltdown. I say work on fixing the problem–and then point fingers.
YES BUSH. It boils down to HIS WATCH. I am sorry. But under his watch LOOK what has happened.
So yeah…I HOLD HIM ACCOUNTABLE.
He will go down in history as the WORST President we’ve EVER had.
He LET this happen. The FRIGGIN MORON.
And you can take THAT to the bank….um…if they’re still open that is. 🙂
PM –
Sirius was up 5 cents friday after hours as well and lost 18 cents from that point. If credit markets are frozen and dow continues selloff for rest of the week, then this could continue to trend lower, as sad as this sounds.
Congress does not reconvene until Thursday because of Jewish holidays, so nothing can be approved until at least Friday late or next Monday.
This could be a complete, complete disaster for the markets, most stocks.
Staying clear of this mess until there is alot more blood in the street.
If Karmazin announced financing in the middle of this, it would be like hitting the Mega Powerball lottery (back to back days)
what happened to all the posts here? There was over 121 responses.
friggen and SXM … LMAO! But really, I’m humbled and yes, there is plenty of blame to go around. I suppose that I was just trying to counter the negativism (which can become self-fulfilling) and the Bush bashing–though yes, as president he should have weighed in far sooner. I’m really fed up with politicians generally because now they have the spotlight shining right where they want it, on them so they can grand stand. I am also sick of the wailing on Wall Street; what a bunch of cry babies. Out here on Main Street we do not have “representatives” with our best interest at heart. We take care of ourselves and our families. And I know better than to say something similar about representation from Wall Street (or Madison Avenue for that matter). Anyway, this blog is supposed to be about Sirius XM and SIRI, and I am going down a rabbit trail. So, I’m off to work and will check in this evening….