here's my prediction socal . . .Originally Posted by socalrunningfool
Relmor's $0.38 and $0.39 will never fill . . . $0.41 might not even fill
Hope I'm wrong cuz time is running out on the great buying opportunities . . hope ya don't get caught chasing-up after staying put for so long
If the pattern seems too easy to predict . . it's probably a set-up!
Here's to getting 1 more bite at the apple!
Opps. There goes another one, they never seem to learn. Get your dime ready.
you're on! (but I do hope I am wrong)
Last edited by Sirius Roadkill; 10-03-2009 at 12:18 AM.
Wow, I take a few days away from the site and look what has happened. I wrote a speculative piece about Palin, and BOOM, a virtual explosion. Let's be clear. I did not say Palin has signed with SIRI, nor that there has even been a conversation. I simply think that the company should give serious consideration to bringing her on. No little birdies said anything to me. I just think SIRI would be foolish if they haven't opened up a discussion with her.relmor2003 says:
August 2, 2009 at 12:31 am
If it happens, Id be very happy. Tyler is never usually speculative like this. Makes me wonder…..
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Sirius Roadkill says:
August 2, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Yes, definitely . . and consider this (Tyler turn your eyes away):
1.) 7/28/09 at 10:15 AM: At the behest of his employer, JC at theroad.com, Moritz writes a hatchet-piece to seed a short position;
2.) 7/28/09 at 3:23 PM: Tyler Savery of Sirius Buzz publishes a rebuttal article with a firm but polite rebuke of Moritz’ bash piece;
3.) 7/29/09 at 3:52 PM: Moritz publishes a condescending follow-up piece which again reveals blatant fomenting;
4.) 7/29/09 at 4:57 PM: Tyler Savery of Sirius Buzz undresses Moritz in the public square. Discussion over.
5.) ???????????????????????????????????;
6.) 7/31/09 at 3:08 PM: Tyler Savery publishes uncharacteristic opinion-piece speculating on the possibility of Sarah Palin signing with Sirius XM.
My theory as to # 5? Please go to the intraday thread in the forums:
ok . . my theory on # 5 . . somebody from Greeney's office picks up the phone and makes a call: "the factual quality of your reporting has not gone unnoticed in the corner offices. You didn't get this from me but Greeney had a meeting this week with Palin's people and it looks good. click"
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder
doctorex, deep in thought, wonders if a good surprise is in store for us.
consensus estimates for SIRI GAAP results average to a loss of 1 cent per share for q2 09.
this means that a 2-cent miss by the analysts would imply a posting of a 1-cent GAAP profit for q2 09.
could this happen? easy: 2 cents times 3 billion is a $60 million error, in a sea of numbers hugely bigger than that.
most importantly, mel, with his new stock option package, has every reason in the world (more precisely, 120,000,000 reasons, this being the size of his option package) to give it a little tweak here, and a little pinch there, and voila, 60 milion found, and PROFIT PROFIT PROFIT.
no more cash flow bullshit. no more ebitda bullshit. this would be a penny of actual GAAP profit.
it will be buy, buy, buy.
doctorex is holding a very large block of 6-cent shares, which he bought on "doomsday" last winter courtesy of the short sellers, who were shorting at 6 cents and are now holding the bag at 45 cents. doctorex is holding for 20 dollars per share, minimum. doctorex does not trade in and out, and recommends against it. sell the wife, and all the girlfriends, and buy siri, and hold for 20 dollars, minimum.
DOCTOREX HAS SPOKEN.
I am not using a stop sell. I am selling at the open if it is at 0.45. I am not greedy. I am not going to die if it gets to 0.53 afterwards. In fact, as soon as I sell I am onto something else.
And who are you ?
Usually someone like you will attack me because you feel stupid when you check my postings and find out that you actually learn something new.
Basher or not I am correct when I say this issue is a loser... Prove me wrong !
I don't care missing a big move. All I care is about my money.Thats good you have a strategy. I just dont like this one. Your going to miss the bigger move. For instance, Ive already sold all my over core, and a tad of my core(newer increased core position from june), now Im READY to start buying back. My first buy target is .41. .40, and .39. I will save more for a lower spike. More conservative strategy, but one I like too, is just to already have all your money spent on that last dip into the .30s, and hold till the CC. Sell triggers for me would be...
Missing earnings, regardless of why.
Losing subs.
Buy or hold, or cancel those sell signals(not add though) would be ...Basically, Im curious to hold my shares a tad longer to see if these things can create a base of a new high, regardless of the above sell triggers.
Iphone announced take rate.
MLB deal.
Howard resigning
Howard coming to Iphone.
News of a refi of course will always be a deal changer.
News of the new GM contract.
Absolute sell triggers.
Mel says sucks.
What's the trading range ? What is the std deviation ? What are the chances of this issue moving PERMANENTLY beyond 1, 2 or even 3 standard deviations ? I'll tell you, beyond 1r is 16%, what's beyond 2r ? I won't even ask about 3r.
Now, lets asume SIRI surprises to the upside, what happens ? Spikes, 40% ? to 60 cents (I may sell short). Guys like me, ready to sell, sell, sell or short, short, short. Spike deflates. Stock goes back below 0.45, 0.44, 0.43, 0.42, 0.41, 0.40, 0.39 ... I cover short and I get long again.... and you guys ride this thing like a rollercoaster...
Now, if SIRI dissapoints, what will happen ? (I will be already out, remember, I will sell my long position at 0.45 Monday). 0.45 .... to 0.05 ? (book value)... just kidding, I do not know 0.35 ?. Then I get in again (long).
I just do not want to get caught holding this issue. It may gap up or down and stops won't work and if it gaps up, that's ok but what if it gaps down ???? I lost my money !!! And remember that is all I care about !
If you got in at 0.45 it does make a difference but if you got in at $4.50 then does it really make a difference ?
What I am trying to say is, if you are holding 10,000 shares at $4.50 and the stock is trading at 0.45 and it doesn't have a chance of getting to $4.50 in 3 or 4 years, why keep holding this issue ? You already lost your money and not only money but TIME.
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