SIRI Intraday Friday and weekend 07-31-09

[bassmaster]

i know there are a few people on this forum that swing trade an overcore (except for big ben who rides his whole position either way). a majority of the people on this forum are longs though. so take this FWIW.i expected along with most other bloggers here the run up going into the CC. it looks like it is starting. there MAY be a headfake south then a spike north in the meantime , i dont know, but if it happens it would not suprise me at all. i called for an apex in the low to mid .50's. if the low volume buying continues that should be where we land. if volume picks up dramatically we may hit .60's...


then the CC comes, we already have an idea of the metrics thanks to the help of tyler savery who i may add has been very accurate in past quarterly predictions. we are expecting sub loss. churn should decrease. revenue of $550 -600MM. improved ARPU. reduced SAC. slight improvement in penetration rate. a flat take rate. another capex hit because of the bond refinancing, eps will be alot lower because of that.


so if tylers expectations are pretty much spot on , how will the street react? i think negative. thats why i believe there will be a takedown after.
the only thing i see preventing that takedown and holding gains is whether mel is transparent regarding the current Q metrics. he may comment that this Q is also seeing increased auto sales, iphone app is(?) a success, etc. BUT when mel said he stopped giving guidance on everything except EBITDA i am not expecting him to say much. i would hope he would suprise me on that front.

i am a long, i dont swing or day trade SIRI nor will i until at least it hits $1 then i will revise my strategy. the last CC i did not listen to because i expected dismal news. i will pay attention to this particular CC because there are alot of question marks. and i want to see if mel comes out of his salesman retirement and puts on a show for prospective investors. this CC will tell us if there will be a takedown or not. and relmor , if he doesnt give us any type of guidance other than EBIDTA dont blame manipulation. there will be a takedown. the street wants to know when we are gonna see FCF+, increased subs, +eps, etc. they want the proof in the pudding.


so basically this is what im expecting going into and out of the CC. i really believe the street wants this to succeed , hence the run up to the CC but they wont hold unless they have good solid news on the fundamentals.
thanx for listening, and if i missed anything please reply. GL

p.s. i am not recommending any type of trading on this equity , i am just giving my opinion. i am not trading it at all. i still believe its a tough game to beat and i am too close to my long term capital gains qualification to fck around. i am staying long regardless of how the street absorbs the news.

[Dr. Dave]

What is your prediction on how far the run up will be? .63 again? Is .63 where the resistence is? Best regards.

When it hit .63, there were multiple types of resistance lines spanning from 0.57 to 0.62, all within a penny of each other, so I cut out at 0.62 using a trailing stop after it hit 0.60, while watching the momentum and ready to sell prior to setting the trailing stop if the price fell below a penny of the first resistance line at 0.56, after it hit 0.58. This time multiple lines converge well over 0.63 (maybe too far for a single run), but unfortunately, there are single resistance lines along the way - and while the stock has used single support lines on the last run down, ie. 0.37 was a single resistance line and it bounced off that, twice I believe, those tend to be weaker. On the upside if I recall, you have 0.48 and 0.51, which are the same types of resistance as 0.37 was, and there could be others, have to check. It's better when you have more than one type near each other. That said, single resistance lines spread out make the water murky, so calling a probability of a turnaround at any of them decreases, so if you're thinking of cutting out, it'll be tougher using them as markers. You can use 0.63 as a single resistance line too, but not as many shares traded there as at 0.62, as it lasted only long enough to look at the microwave oven, but they are a penny apart so no worries, unless you are dumping big. So perhaps take momentum into consideration and keep your finger on the trigger. Hope that helps.

###

To answer yesterday's question - I tend not to believe a new poster's argument if they don't respond back in a reasonable matter on the points at hand, but just bash the other person for spelling. I just figure they were stumped a little, and didn't think the argument thru enough, or thought the other person may be right. Everyone thinks differently I guess, no worries.

Happy trading everyone, all the best.

###

Posted same time as Bass, haha. I'm not making a recommendation either, I'm just pointing out where the classic resistance lines are. It's my opinion that having them clustered works better.

[relmor2003]

About 4 weeks ago Siri was trading at 0.46. I suggested to sell due to a bearish pattern and the stock goint to 0.35. Well, it went to 0.37 so very close. About 3 weeks ago I suggested to buy @ 0.38 and sell at 0.46. Well it took three weeks to get to 0.45 but here we are 0.45.

Now, no one is going to like what I have to say but at this level I will not risk my hard earned money. For me, Monday is a sell day, even with a possible bullish formation.

With earnings announcement on the 6th I do not want to get caught holding this loser.

Good luck to all of you that want to try to hit a home run.

Thats good you have a strategy. I just dont like this one. Your going to miss the bigger move. For instance, Ive already sold all my over core, and a tad of my core(newer increased core position from june), now Im READY to start buying back. My first buy target is .41. .40, and .39. I will save more for a lower spike. More conservative strategy, but one I like too, is just to already have all your money spent on that last dip into the .30s, and hold till the CC. Sell triggers for me would be...
Missing earnings, regardless of why.
Losing subs.
Buy or hold, or cancel those sell signals(not add though) would be ...Basically, Im curious to hold my shares a tad longer to see if these things can create a base of a new high, regardless of the above sell triggers.
Iphone announced take rate.
MLB deal.
Howard resigning
Howard coming to Iphone.
News of a refi of course will always be a deal changer.
News of the new GM contract.
Absolute sell triggers.
Mel says sucks.

[sxminvestor]

A piece from Yahoo finance article on economy:

Automakers will also report monthly sales for July on Monday, and many observers expecting to see some encouraging signs in the data thanks to the "cash for clunkers" program instituted by the Obama administration. The popular program exhausted its entire $1 billion pool in only six days, prompting the House of Representatives to approve a $2 billion extension of the bill on Friday.

The extension debate will shift to the Senate in the coming week, making an improvement in July auto sales that can be pinned to the clunkers program vital to the Senate's vote.

"You have to see some improvement here," Mendelsohn said. "You had $1 billion sucked up just like that. Auto sales have to pick up here." Paulsen adds that a huge focus will be on the sales number, considering the program burned through the entire money in less than a week. "It could say a lot about third-quarter GDP and job creation," he said.

[Dr. Dave]

Thats good you have a strategy. I just dont like this one. Your going to miss the bigger move. For instance, Ive already sold all my over core, and a tad of my core(newer increased core position from june), now Im READY to start buying back. My first buy target is .41. .40, and .39. I will save more for a lower spike. More conservative strategy, but one I like too, is just to already have all your money spent on that last dip into the .30s, and hold till the CC. Sell triggers for me would be...
Missing earnings, regardless of why.
Losing subs.
Buy or hold, or cancel those sell signals(not add though) would be ...Basically, Im curious to hold my shares a tad longer to see if these things can create a base of a new high, regardless of the above sell triggers.
Iphone announced take rate.
MLB deal.
Howard resigning
Howard coming to Iphone.
News of a refi of course will always be a deal changer.
News of the new GM contract.
Absolute sell triggers.
Mel says sucks.

I'm with you on this one, not looking to sell, but for different reasons, I mainly use TA (I do take earnings dates seriously, though), and on longer term charts, things look pretty good (and call/short interest are in favor), and I have a decent chunk of free shares anyway... My unsolicted 2 cents.

[imromo24]

AMEN to that BTR...SO is a very negative basher no matter how good times are.

I dunno, he usually has pretty good advice, at least normally sound advice. I wouldn't call him a Blah blah that just jumps in with nonsense with nothing to back it up for certain.



Dave, Bass

Thanks dudes!

[imromo24]

I didn't see that romo . . can you track that down?

Was that just Tuna Amobi's forecast?

If the Company guides to $500mm Irish has my pledge that I will drop the cap ex debate once and for all . .

i guess it wasn't s&p but ill keep looking, here is where i saw it

http://siriusbuzz.com/barrington-upg...outperform.php

Barrington believes that investors should consider several core fundamental issues:

•A favorable swing in EBITDA of more than $500 million into positive territory this year should be followed by substantial, additional annual gains.

[imromo24]

3am, I made it....goodnight....

[Sirius Roadkill]

relmor2003 says:
August 2, 2009 at 12:31 am
If it happens, Id be very happy. Tyler is never usually speculative like this. Makes me wonder…..

Reply
Sirius Roadkill says:
August 2, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Yes, definitely . . and consider this (Tyler turn your eyes away):

1.) 7/28/09 at 10:15 AM: At the behest of his employer, JC at theroad.com, Moritz writes a hatchet-piece to seed a short position;

2.) 7/28/09 at 3:23 PM: Tyler Savery of Sirius Buzz publishes a rebuttal article with a firm but polite rebuke of Moritz’ bash piece;

3.) 7/29/09 at 3:52 PM: Moritz publishes a condescending follow-up piece which again reveals blatant fomenting;

4.) 7/29/09 at 4:57 PM: Tyler Savery of Sirius Buzz undresses Moritz in the public square. Discussion over.

5.) ???????????????????????????????????;

6.) 7/31/09 at 3:08 PM: Tyler Savery publishes uncharacteristic opinion-piece speculating on the possibility of Sarah Palin signing with Sirius XM.

My theory as to # 5? Please go to the intraday thread in the forums:



ok . . my theory on # 5 . . somebody from Greeney's office picks up the phone and makes a call: "the factual quality of your reporting has not gone unnoticed in the corner offices. You didn't get this from me but Greeney had a meeting this week with Palin's people and it looks good. click"

[Sirius Roadkill]

i guess it wasn't s&p but ill keep looking, here is where i saw it

http://siriusbuzz.com/barrington-upg...outperform.php

hey romo . . note that Barrington says "a swing" of $500mm (which in my mind accounts for going from negative "pro forma" EBITDA, for the combined companies for full year 2008, to full year EBITDA positive for 2009)