SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/09/09

[Gallep]

So any Pre-Market excitement?

[edeyoung99]

Barrington Rates Sirius XM As Market Perform
March 9, 2009 (9:18 pm) Tyler Savery
Barrington Research issued a report on Sirius XM Radio today that highlights the recent Liberty deal, as well as the upcoming report. The firm, in light of what has transpired sees down-side as lower than before, but in light of dilution, rates the company as market perform.Downside Risk More Muted, but Upside Diluted; Reducing Rating

SIRI plans to release Q4/08 and full-year 2008 earnings results on March 17,
2009, with a conference call to be webcast at 7:00 a.m. CDT. Our EPS estimates
are for a loss per share of $(0.06) for the quarter and $(0.23) for the year.
Consensus estimates are $(0.07) and $(0.30) for the same periods, respectively.






S162, Homer, Rel.... Did you see this? Can you elaborate?

[OldDruid]

So any Pre-Market excitement?

Only 156K shares traded at a rough est average 0.1498
Thin volume. They keep swapping out blocks at .1498 to .15 back and forth.
Rest of the world seems to have had a good day, maybe the US of A will follow. Futures seem to indicate it.

[sl62]

{snicker}

Well, what can I say......I suppose it is because you have never been to the slots with me, but I do my due dillegence.

For example, I walk around, up and down and make mental notes of who is at what machine. You can tell if someone has been at one machine for a long time by the ashtray and drink glasses, and a real good clue is a angry and just about to leave wife who is watching their husband blow the kids college fund.

After I do my dilligence I wait for the machine to open up or I watch the next guy by toying with a close by machine.

When I see a few more folks pump it full of money and leave in disgust, only then do I pull the trigger and claim the seat for my own. This due dilligence works for me quite well, but not always.

I am also very aggressive on stocks, I am a bottom fisher, but I also toy with ETF's like my recent buy of FAS. I study the market moods like anyone else, and watch the futures, and the options, the various indexes.

But I like the risk associated with the beaten down stocks because the payoff is great and I have a fairly short time horizon.

During the dot com boom, I played regular investor with balanced portfolios and all that, and I got my ass handed to me so I do it my way now. I made a major mistake last year by not reading enough press on a particular ETF. I did not know the ETF had tripped a provision in it's charter and was going to close down. When I bought shares and averaged down, as oil went up, I thought I could wait it out and regain some of my loss. Then I got the news about the impending closure and I realized the stock would never recover, but it was too late.

I ended up in a hospital with all sorts of holes poked in me and a diagnoses of needing stents installed for my heart. They stuck them in but found no blockages. They did 20 or thirty more tests and at the time I grabbed my shit and walked out, they had not come to any answers or conclusions.

It was the damn stock!



End of story, I lost 97% of my investment while I was in the hospital which was sizeable for me. Now I don't have much trading money left and I'm looking for 4,5,and 10 baggers. The idea being that I lose it all, or win big and reclaim my losses.

To me, that is the same as a slot machine mentality and that is truly how I feel. I really feel that way. I can deal with the stress better that way. I'm angry. I'm ashamed, and I want to get even or better or bust out. The bust out part I am trying to avoid.....:-)

If it's just a slot machine, then "it don't mean nothin"! Win or loose........

Thanks for your cohgent reply.

>>When I see a few more folks pump it full of money and leave in disgust, only then do I pull the trigger and claim the seat for my own. This due dilligence works for me quite well, but not always.<<

Very smart!! And your heart story is amazing. whew...life is strange isn't it?

[sl62]

Barrington Rates Sirius XM As Market Perform
March 9, 2009 (9:18 pm) Tyler Savery
Barrington Research issued a report on Sirius XM Radio today that highlights the recent Liberty deal, as well as the upcoming report. The firm, in light of what has transpired sees down-side as lower than before, but in light of dilution, rates the company as market perform.Downside Risk More Muted, but Upside Diluted; Reducing Rating

SIRI plans to release Q4/08 and full-year 2008 earnings results on March 17,
2009, with a conference call to be webcast at 7:00 a.m. CDT. Our EPS estimates
are for a loss per share of $(0.06) for the quarter and $(0.23) for the year.
Consensus estimates are $(0.07) and $(0.30) for the same periods, respectively.






S162, Homer, Rel.... Did you see this? Can you elaborate?

edeyoung99...

I opined about this over on the article...

[edeyoung99]

Thanks S162....

[sl62]

SL62,john,relmor,homer

What is your take on the payment structure for the 250M due to Liberty in May 2010. IMHO it forces the company to begin paying down their outstanding debt qtrly. 25M per quarter for 4 qtrs then final of about 150M!
Should be able to knock down 250M buy May 2010!

Also, with debt for equity swaps...what is SiriusXM new total debt?

just sirius...

If I understand your question correctly, I would first correct that the just extended to May of 2010 $250M facility is a revolving bank facility with JPM. This was inherited by Mel in the XM deal. One of the contingencies in the Malone deal was that this facility was able to be extended..which it is, now one year. The other May XM facility Mel inherited was the $100M Term loan with UBS. This is the one that Malone is assuming and I believe that loan, like the others are not due in 2010 but either 2011 or 12 depending (I'm not sure that detail was released yet since it was in phase 2 but that would be my assumption). All I recall reading so far was that he was intending on assuming the loan. As far as what happens to the JPM $250 next May...because it was inherited and Mel's relationship with JPM (who per the 12/18 PPT were also used as a consultant on the refi package), it may be possible to extend one more time. 2 extensions are not uncommon in other like situations I've seen (as long as payments are being made and company is performing on metrics). Right now, that would be my first guess on Mel's strategy in May of 2010. With no other debt due in 2010, everything else starts in 2011. However as you say, if this company is to remain public (could still wind up going private by then), there will have to be some kind of paydown strategy in place at least by mid 2010 (one would assume!) since in 2011 the Honda Dec '09 Notes are now pushed to there as now Senior Secured and Sirus SR has about another $250M due then too. If JPM gets extended once more...etc..etc..you get the picture. Look, even though their debt issues are right now alleviated and pushed into the future, the truth is they have a near insurmountable mountain of debt waiting for them in their not-so-distant future. How this exactly is managed going forward, I will not care to opine upon just now. Too many possibilities in the mix. I'm just glad they got this reprieve for now, which will enable Mel and Co. a chance to put in some solid time actually growing this company rather than spending every waking minute trying to negotiate a refi deal and staving off imminent BK...IMHO..

[sl62]

gotta run today...bbl..

looks like great C news today. Bernanke's M2M remarks also good to hear. We are near a bottom guys. This thing's gonna have to turn around short-term very soon if not today (a for-real turn around that is!!) later

[john]

just sirius, I think the 25 million per quarter is more then doable. I think Mel would not have agreed to it if it wasn't. Also as sl62 has just said there comes apoint in time were you have to start to pay off the debt when there is that much compared to the size of the company. I actually like the fact that I see they are going to be paying it down. It will make it alot easyer to get other refinancing in the future.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

bout time for siri to peform its patented routine the "insta-drop", where we go from heading in a slow and steady upwards movement to immediatly being thrown into a free fall.