SL62,john,relmor,homer
What is your take on the payment structure for the 250M due to Liberty in May 2010. IMHO it forces the company to begin paying down their outstanding debt qtrly. 25M per quarter for 4 qtrs then final of about 150M!
Should be able to knock down 250M buy May 2010!
Also, with debt for equity swaps...what is SiriusXM new total debt?
A little sump'm sump'm here. All with respect cause I think you know I appreciate you, your opinions and knowledge base..but whenever I see people make comparisons of the Street and Las Vegas as the same, I feel compelled to opine. I hope you'll endulge me for just a minute and let me explain why they are very different.
{snicker}
Well, what can I say......I suppose it is because you have never been to the slots with me, but I do my due dillegence.
For example, I walk around, up and down and make mental notes of who is at what machine. You can tell if someone has been at one machine for a long time by the ashtray and drink glasses, and a real good clue is a angry and just about to leave wife who is watching their husband blow the kids college fund.
After I do my dilligence I wait for the machine to open up or I watch the next guy by toying with a close by machine.
When I see a few more folks pump it full of money and leave in disgust, only then do I pull the trigger and claim the seat for my own. This due dilligence works for me quite well, but not always.
I am also very aggressive on stocks, I am a bottom fisher, but I also toy with ETF's like my recent buy of FAS. I study the market moods like anyone else, and watch the futures, and the options, the various indexes.
But I like the risk associated with the beaten down stocks because the payoff is great and I have a fairly short time horizon.
During the dot com boom, I played regular investor with balanced portfolios and all that, and I got my ass handed to me so I do it my way now. I made a major mistake last year by not reading enough press on a particular ETF. I did not know the ETF had tripped a provision in it's charter and was going to close down. When I bought shares and averaged down, as oil went up, I thought I could wait it out and regain some of my loss. Then I got the news about the impending closure and I realized the stock would never recover, but it was too late.
I ended up in a hospital with all sorts of holes poked in me and a diagnoses of needing stents installed for my heart. They stuck them in but found no blockages. They did 20 or thirty more tests and at the time I grabbed my shit and walked out, they had not come to any answers or conclusions.
It was the damn stock!
End of story, I lost 97% of my investment while I was in the hospital which was sizeable for me. Now I don't have much trading money left and I'm looking for 4,5,and 10 baggers. The idea being that I lose it all, or win big and reclaim my losses.
To me, that is the same as a slot machine mentality and that is truly how I feel. I really feel that way. I can deal with the stress better that way. I'm angry. I'm ashamed, and I want to get even or better or bust out. The bust out part I am trying to avoid.....:-)
If it's just a slot machine, then "it don't mean nothin"! Win or loose........
Thanks for your cohgent reply.
I know I was not on your list, but I have a opinion on that.Originally Posted by just sirius
Malone now has skin in the game. It's like borrowing money from your friend. The dates are just rollovers now. He will be quite happy cliping coupons or whatever they do. He made a great investment that will pay him his principle back fairly quickly in interest.
He also can get more of a stake and in the end, there may or may not be a buyout in toto. Could be malone get's bought out. We can only dream.
I have not added up the total exactly, but with the 40% conversion and the loans, the debt which includes equity on a balance sheet, probably nearly doubles. That is why the street is hesitant, but I think this will change in time. I mean, what's 6 billion bucks these days post Obama....
Just saying, that is what people will see on the sheet. I will be intersted in seeing how the accountants treat all the changes and how it adds up for the Q after this upcoming one.
I need to hear how they plan to increase their cash flow, and there estimation for synergy savings for 09. I also need to see subs, and their sub guidance for the year. I think its advantageously set up, and their debtor is "friendly, and has their best interests". I enjoy knowing that one of its major debtors have interest in them suceeding, Libety, and I believe Apollo and another major stockholder still holds a large amount of bonds. Keeping the bonds out of enemy hands will be vital. If Malones plan was to purchase this debt on the open market, I would like to see this discussed in the Conference call. I also need to hear their plans for new revenue streams, etc... But basically I feel they can make their payments, as they are better spread out now, and not consolidated like the nightmare year of 09. Not many in the MSM gave them a chance of making it past 09, and that is a guarantee at this point now. Auto sales recovering might just be the icing on the cake, right when they need it most(2010-2011). Howards contract wont come close to his old one. Licensing the bandwidth(still dont have numbers on how much that will generate. And I think we can guarantee that satellie is going up this year, as they need that to recongize synergies. Sooner they get their sats up fully to their long term plans, the sooner they can make some damn money.
I also dont expect any goodwill charges this quarter.
Basically I dont have enough information at this time to determine their chances of making all their payments. This economy is making "projections" very difficult.
Last edited by relmor2003; 03-10-2009 at 01:06 AM.
Wirestripper
Thanks for the answer. Fool article stated payment must begin next qtr 25m each qtr! Why put them in on a qtrly basis if able to just roll them over?
Relmor
Agree 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks for your cont input. I believe that Malone will ultimately prove to be a great asset to the co. I know you thought Ergen deal was better...We probably will never know the whole story!
Interesting post...probably one of the most important I have seen in days...KUDOS
If a guy is emotional with trading, falls in love with stocks, then trading is probably not for him. You just have to take the numbers for what they are and go from there. Having a love affair with a down stock is simply nuts and most of the time averaging down on a depressed stock is even dumber..Averaging down is probably one of the dumbest things a guy can do with a falling stock.....but not always....just most of the time.
The only indicators that we have are: our familiarity with the stock; financial reports; indicators, market mood and news. Other than that we are blind and rely upon gut feeling.
Sometimes we win...sometimes we lose. It takes both to make a balanced financial world. There is not any sense in being involved in something that can cripple or ruin you health-wise or financially.
Stay away from stress....it is a killer...instead enjoy the kill and let the ones that get away, go.
I think we will get the right answers during the conference call as to planned repayment. The interest rate on the loan is too high, no question that when they get a better rating, they will certainly be able to do better and I think they want to assure investors that they plan to retire the loan ASAP.
But what they want to do and what they know they can do for sure are likely two different numbers and the investor assurances were just that, just calming the waters.
I mentioned a rollover, because that is what they likely will do. When they do, they can get the rate down....way down and perhaps pay off Malone or Malone will renegotiate based of the company situation at the time. There are a dozen other options.
The interest rate was meant to be punitive to siri for the benifit of Malones stockholders....That's why the deal appears to suck, but it only sucks on paper for the benifit of the Liberty folks who are watching all this and wondering if it was the right things to do. So.......we both got assured.......so to speak.
To shorten this up in a few words.....I am not worried about it in the least.
I appreciate your understanding of what I meant and why. I sure do!
Funny
Ok, "Smell your fingers"....HILARIOUS!!!!!!!! s162, May I use that? In another forum of course.dave99...
Wow. Where do I start. This is passionate stuff and it's easy to want to rip a guy a new one for comments like yours. But I'm going to to try to be civil.
1. >>I think it will actually be the $250M debt that matures in May 2010. It is only 13 months away<<
My friend, you must be joking. Several of us already created you a while ago (months ago) and look, here you are. You just showed up in our reality. We knew some dufus would say exactly this. And for such, you are officially labeled a dummy. My goodness man. Go ahead, now smell your fingers.
2. Please just do us all a huge fav and dump and run. We beg you. For your sake and certainly for our sanity. You post this garbage and you're still holding? What? Why? I'm perplexed to the max at your type. I hope you'll take my advice and just ease on down the road..or at least go find another BB on which to write your strange comments...there I think I did a prety good job at keeping it together. peace bro.
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