Excerpt: "Wells Fargo Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker, in a note Friday, calculated that the loss in subscribers in Disney’s sports networks cost the company $700 million in fee revenue and $200 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization."Originally Posted by user34615145
That's -$200 Million in the all important EBITDA number. Double ouch!
Maybe Spencer has a real job is tired of writing about a stock that traded in $3-$4 for over 2 years? Maybe he has a family? There a lot of people that have left that invested/traded sirius xm. Why doesn't Faulkner write any more of his hamburgaler articles? Maybe he has a new life with his girlfriend? Maybe they do things instead of sitting at the computer all daywho knows.
He seems to write about speculative drug companies now
http://seekingalpha.com/author/spencer-osborne/articles
So glad most of the penny stock bloggers are out of this stock. Makes me feel much more confident.
Took most of my profits on Disney already a couple of weeks back. It moved up alot sooner than the Star Wars release which surprised me so I had to take profits which always makes me second guess myself a bit (but have to be disciplined), but am still very very confident that Star Wars is going to just blow out the box office and become the biggest movie in history. No worries about Disney at all. Star Wars is out in couple weeks now. I expect a quick bounce but I don't have much left there. My big positions are Comcast and Sirius which I have targets of $100 and $5 on at which point I take some profits and throw it into my stock and bond index funds. It will take some years for Comcast. But expect Comcast and Sirius will be my 2 biggest individual holdings for the next decade. I like Charter and Disney as well as Liberty.
As you get older and stocks reach targets you have to remain disciplined and become more conservative. Too much money at stake. Not 20 years old with nothing and shooting for a million anymore. I'm a millionaire now looking for growth and protection at the same time. Different ballgame.
Last edited by MUSCLE13; 11-27-2015 at 07:33 PM.
My bad Muscle. I apologize. I had no idea he was still writing for Seeking Alpha. I am eating crow on this one.
I WIN. GAME OVER. CHECK MATE. I CONTROL YOUR EVERY MOVE. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Congrats on your trade Muscle! That's what I'm talking about! When you see an opportunity, you have to pull the trigger, regardless of the the metrics and the long term prospects of the company . Clearly from your comments above and prior, you still believe in the long term prospects of DIS but you sold now - two weeks ahead of a movie release that you've been talking up on this forum for the past six months and that you think might "become the biggest movie in history". Why? Because the stock had gotten ahead of itself, so you take profits! Perfect! That's what you should do! And that, my friend, is the definition of a classic market timing trade!
The long term doesn't matter so much when you can make your coin today.
No I don't time. I have price targets based on EBITDA and FCF where I take profits. 20 years ago I was a buy and hold forever type investor or until I needed the money for a house or car. As I became more sophisticated, and got a hold of all of Jessica's reports through my Merrill account I realized I had the ability and the resources to calculate my EBITDA price target multiples. Plus I have a lot more money now - I have to be more conservative with individual stocks than I used to be. I still am a buy and hold forever investor in index funds. I am a huge believer in John Bogle. I believe it is absolutely impossible to time the market.
Calling BS on you Muscle. You have repeatedly stated in this forum over and over again how you are a long term investor not a trader. You just pulled a trade.
I found his comment odd too. He was a long term investor but sold Disney? He was telling everyone to buy that because of Star Wars and he sells before the release?
I WIN. GAME OVER. CHECK MATE. I CONTROL YOUR EVERY MOVE. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Do you have any idea how stupid you sound? You have tied yourself up in knots with you own convoluted "logic". Nothing fundamentally has changed with DIS, has EBITDA peaked? Is FCF impacted negatively in some way? No nothing has changed. In fact, according to you it's only gonna get better. You think so highly of it that you sold it - ahead of what you publicly predict will be the biggest blockbuster ever! Why? Because the stock price got ahead if itself and you took advantage because the time was right. It was a good trade. Probably a great "sell ahead of the news trade", but it was as pure a market-timing trade as there is. No shame in that.
Last edited by user34615145; 11-28-2015 at 02:46 PM.
Guys... Muscle doesn't have time to hang around with a bunch of traders who don't understand the first thing about investing. He's outta here!!!
I WIN. GAME OVER. CHECK MATE. I CONTROL YOUR EVERY MOVE. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
Reply With Quote