SIRI Monthly Thread October 2015 (with NFL Chat)

[user34615145]

As we head into the earnings call tomorrow A.M. there certainly has been a lot of chatter here in the forum. Folks are getting testy it seems. Perhaps it's time to put up or shut up? For those that think SIRI is going to bust out above the $4 range here's a trade to consider:

The Oct23 (this Friday) $4 calls can be had for $.06...probably lower as we speak with the recent intraday weakness in the sp. This means you control the stock for $.06 above $4/share. Anything above $4.06 is penny for penny pure profit for you. Everyone talks about the "good old days" when shares could be had for $.05 or $.10, or even $.15...well here's chance to re-live those days. Control 100,000 shares for only $6k. Any takers? or just talkers?

Another way to play a bullish sentiment on tomorrows earnings is to SELL the Oct23 (Friday) PUT for $.11. If the stock busts out above $4 and stays that way you keep the $.11. If not, you buy it for $4/share BUT.....you still get to keep the $.11 so your true cost basis would only be $3.89. So logic would conclude that if $4+ is where the stock is going then this is either an easy way to pick up $.11/share or a way to pick up more shares for the bargain price of $3.89. Again...any takers here? Or Just talkers?

I'm playing the Puts. That way if I get put the stock I can turn around and sell the calls.

[waldo29]

As we head into the earnings call tomorrow A.M. there certainly has been a lot of chatter here in the forum. Folks are getting testy it seems. Perhaps it's time to put up or shut up? For those that think SIRI is going to bust out above the $4 range here's a trade to consider:

The Oct23 (this Friday) $4 calls can be had for $.06...probably lower as we speak with the recent intraday weakness in the sp. This means you control the stock for $.06 above $4/share. Anything above $4.06 is penny for penny pure profit for you. Everyone talks about the "good old days" when shares could be had for $.05 or $.10, or even $.15...well here's chance to re-live those days. Control 100,000 shares for only $6k. Any takers? or just talkers?

Another way to play a bullish sentiment on tomorrows earnings is to SELL the Oct23 (Friday) PUT for $.11. If the stock busts out above $4 and stays that way you keep the $.11. If not, you buy it for $4/share BUT.....you still get to keep the $.11 so your true cost basis would only be $3.89. So logic would conclude that if $4+ is where the stock is going then this is either an easy way to pick up $.11/share or a way to pick up more shares for the bargain price of $3.89. Again...any takers here? Or Just talkers?

I'm playing the Puts. That way if I get put the stock I can turn around and sell the calls.

Go with the Puts, sell to open with one day left no need for an exit plan if you are happy with 3.89. The bid on the Calls is @ .03 (ask @ .08), don't pay up for it. Plus, the liquidity of the security [option] is more of a concern if the trade went against you.

EDIT: user always has good option ideas

[dm_4]

Be nice if we beat tomorrow....have a huge short squeeze and hit 5$ well at least 4.50

Place your bets BABY and let her ride!

[user34615145]

As we head into the earnings call tomorrow A.M. there certainly has been a lot of chatter here in the forum. Folks are getting testy it seems. Perhaps it's time to put up or shut up? For those that think SIRI is going to bust out above the $4 range here's a trade to consider:

The Oct23 (this Friday) $4 calls can be had for $.06...probably lower as we speak with the recent intraday weakness in the sp. This means you control the stock for $.06 above $4/share. Anything above $4.06 is penny for penny pure profit for you. Everyone talks about the "good old days" when shares could be had for $.05 or $.10, or even $.15...well here's chance to re-live those days. Control 100,000 shares for only $6k. Any takers? or just talkers?

Another way to play a bullish sentiment on tomorrows earnings is to SELL the Oct23 (Friday) PUT for $.11. If the stock busts out above $4 and stays that way you keep the $.11. If not, you buy it for $4/share BUT.....you still get to keep the $.11 so your true cost basis would only be $3.89. So logic would conclude that if $4+ is where the stock is going then this is either an easy way to pick up $.11/share or a way to pick up more shares for the bargain price of $3.89. Again...any takers here? Or Just talkers?

I'm playing the Puts. That way if I get put the stock I can turn around and sell the calls.

Go with the Puts, sell to open with one day left no need for an exit plan if you are happy with 3.89. The bid on the Calls is @ .03 (ask @ .08), don't pay up for it. Plus, the liquidity of the security [option] is more of a concern if the trade went against you.

EDIT: user always has good option ideas

Thanks for the response waldo. I'm guessing from the cricket's chirping folks have decided to opt for "shut up" rather than "put up" and that's understandable given that options are not something everyone is comfortable with and the unpredictability of the stock itself. I have done a little homework which I will share with the group.

Out of the last seven (7) earnings announcement trading days - going back to February 4 of 2014 the sp has fluctuated on an open close basis (didn't check intraday - probably should have) from a max of +$.05 to a minimum of -$.08 for the day of earnings and from a max of +$.03 to a min of -$.06 from open to close on the day after the earnings were released. Combined, the most it increased in any two days following earnings was +$.08 and the most it decreased in the two days following earnings was -$.05.

Therefore, based on this short and very unscientific survey of the past seven earnings calls, your analysis is validated waldo. Assuming the sp closes at somewhere in the mid $3.90's today (and hey,there's still time for a move back to green today - we've seen stranger things happen!) an $.08 move would place the holder (buyer) of those calls at best case of break even. While the writer (seller) of the Puts would probably get put the stock, he/she would either be able to buy back those puts at a fraction of what was earlier paid for them, or own the stock with a true cb (strike price minus put premium) about $.10 below the market price.

Edit #1: FYI, sold Oct23 $4 puts and received $.10 premium. So....we shall see.

Edit #2: Well that trade is looking pretty stupid right now. Could just buy the stock for $3.90 right about now and be done with it. Why does it seem like I've seen this movie before?

[dm_4]

Thanks for the response waldo. I'm guessing from the cricket's chirping folks have decided to opt for "shut up" rather than "put up" and that's understandable given that options are not something everyone is comfortable with and the unpredictability of the stock itself. I have done a little homework which I will share with the group.

Out of the last seven (7) earnings announcement trading days - going back to February 4 of 2014 the sp has fluctuated on an open close basis (didn't check intraday - probably should have) from a max of +$.05 to a minimum of -$.08 for the day of earnings and from a max of +$.03 to a min of -$.06 from open to close on the day after the earnings were released. Combined, the most it increased in any two days following earnings was +$.08 and the most it decreased in the two days following earnings was -$.05.

Therefore, based on this short and very unscientific survey of the past seven earnings calls, your analysis is validated waldo. Assuming the sp closes at somewhere in the mid $3.90's today (and hey,there's still time for a move back to green today - we've seen stranger things happen!) an $.08 move would place the holder (buyer) of those calls at best case of break even. While the writer (seller) of the Puts would probably get put the stock, he/she would either be able to buy back those puts at a fraction of what was earlier paid for them, or own the stock with a true cb (strike price minus put premium) about $.10 below the market price.

Edit #1: FYI, sold Oct23 $4 puts and received $.10 premium. So....we shall see.

yeah we all "shut up" no one here is betting earnings.

[midas360]

Anyone getting nervous? HAHAHA... gotta love how it runs to $4.07 and sells off. Takes back yesterday and today's gains. DAMN!!!


I love how quiet everyone gets when the stock goes down. HAHAHA

Btw... I just road in a well-oiled machine. My car... ran great!!! No problems whatsoever!

[midas360]

I don't know if it's the "shut up" but rather the "I don't have a clue what you are talking about." HAHAHA

If you think these folks in here trade options, your fooling yourself. They are your most basic mom and pop traders accept for one loser, Rosie O'Dannell.

Thanks for the response waldo. I'm guessing from the cricket's chirping folks have decided to opt for "shut up" rather than "put up" and that's understandable given that options are not something everyone is comfortable with and the unpredictability of the stock itself. I have done a little homework which I will share with the group.

Out of the last seven (7) earnings announcement trading days - going back to February 4 of 2014 the sp has fluctuated on an open close basis (didn't check intraday - probably should have) from a max of +$.05 to a minimum of -$.08 for the day of earnings and from a max of +$.03 to a min of -$.06 from open to close on the day after the earnings were released. Combined, the most it increased in any two days following earnings was +$.08 and the most it decreased in the two days following earnings was -$.05.

Therefore, based on this short and very unscientific survey of the past seven earnings calls, your analysis is validated waldo. Assuming the sp closes at somewhere in the mid $3.90's today (and hey,there's still time for a move back to green today - we've seen stranger things happen!) an $.08 move would place the holder (buyer) of those calls at best case of break even. While the writer (seller) of the Puts would probably get put the stock, he/she would either be able to buy back those puts at a fraction of what was earlier paid for them, or own the stock with a true cb (strike price minus put premium) about $.10 below the market price.

Edit #1: FYI, sold Oct23 $4 puts and received $.10 premium. So....we shall see.

[midas360]

We are waiting ROSIE!?!?!

Rosie O'Dannell (DM) .. Question...

How does a Personal Injury Lawyer who lives in apartment and drives a Dodge Charger spend his entire work day in Sirius Buzz Forum? Do you actually work? Please enlighten us?

[waldo29]

Little attack going on @ 3:30. Need to close @ or above 3.92 or it is a bearish signal.

[midas360]

Uh oh... not good waldo. Be careful. You may be called a name.

Little attack going on @ 3:30. Need to close @ or above 3.92 or it is a bearish signal.