SIRI Monthly Thread August 2015

[MUSCLE13]

I know you ignore the analysts. Keep ignoring them. They've been saying the telcos were done a long time ago. They were wrong. We enjoy your posts. Keep posting your links, information, opinions, etc. ++++++11111

Edit: It wasn't that DTV "had" to merge with AT&T. It's more of if AT&T wanted to compete in the video biz, they needed to buy their customers. U-Verse was growing but not at the rate that management wanted. They are the largest Pay TV provider.

I pay very close attention to analysts. Some are awesome, some are horrendous. I totally disagree with you on the DTV AT&T merger. Dolan at Cablevision has said this multiple times - Broadband margins are 7 times higher than video margins. SEVEN TIMES! Why? Think about it. No content costs for the broadband providers.

I think video is a good business. But only when it is packaged in a bundle with broadband. Cable has a cost effective way of increasing broadband speeds. Their infrastructure is already in the ground. Telco buildout is costing billions. I think that is why Verizon FIOS just about ended their buildout.

I agree with the analysts on telcos. I don't like the industry at all. In my opinion the only good reason for AT&T to do the DTV deal is to get DTV's cash flow to pay the dividend. I think Sat TV and telco businesses both pretty much suck.

[dm_4]

++++++++++11111111111 Muscle

I pay very close attention to analysts. Some are awesome, some are horrendous. I totally disagree with you on the DTV AT&T merger. Dolan at Cablevision has said this multiple times - Broadband margins are 7 times higher than video margins. SEVEN TIMES! Why? Think about it.

[midas360]

I am a U-Verse customer and been following AT&T ever since the divestiture. AT&T has been bundling services for a few years now and they've been partners with DirecTV before the merger. If you were thinking they "needed" to, they already have been. All you have to do is compare the coverage map of AT&T to everyone else and you will see who has the most coverage. With respect to "buildout," telcos AND cable companies, capital expenditures are always in the billions because they are constantly expanding, upgrading, etc. their networks.

Everyone thought SBC (the smallest baby bell) wasn't going to survive. Look what they've done.

I will never say if I agree or disagree with you. I just know the telco's are evolving and doing a very good job. AT&T is a data company right now. I don't know which analysts you follow but there are some that agree and disagree with what the cable and telcos are doing. It all depends on who you like and support.

The difference I see in AT&T and Cable is that AT&T is not only gaining broadband customers but they gaining millions of Pay-TV customers (recent DTV Merger) and is now the largest Pay TV operator. Cable companies are gaining broadband but are LOSING pay-tv subs. You can figure it out.

The reason Verizon ended the "build-out" is because it was way to ambitious and expensive. Bringing fiber to the home is costly. AT&T took a different approach and it cost 1/2 of what Verizon was trying to do. AT&T brings fiber to the neighborhood and then uses the existing copper to bring it to them home. It's very cost effective, efficient, and easy to install.

Verizon is LOST. They have no clue what business they are in. They are trying to find themselves. HAHAHA

EDIT: Netflix and Hulu are going to crush CABLE. I had to Muscle. (TAGS: Netflix, Hulu, Cord Cutters, Cable Companies)

I pay very close attention to analysts. Some are awesome, some are horrendous. I totally disagree with you on the DTV AT&T merger. Dolan at Cablevision has said this multiple times - Broadband margins are 7 times higher than video margins. SEVEN TIMES! Why? Think about it. No content costs for the broadband providers.

I think video is a good business. But only when it is packaged in a bundle with broadband. Cable has a cost effective way of increasing broadband speeds. Their infrastructure is already in the ground. Telco buildout is costing billions. I think that is why Verizon FIOS just about ended their buildout.

I agree with the analysts on telcos. I don't like the industry at all. In my opinion the only good reason for AT&T to do the DTV deal is to get DTV's cash flow to pay the dividend. I think Sat TV and telco businesses both pretty much suck.

[dm_4]

I know you ignore the analysts. Keep ignoring them. They've been saying the telcos were done a long time ago. They were wrong. We enjoy your posts. Keep posting your links, information, opinions, etc. ++++++11111

Edit: It wasn't that DTV "had" to merge with AT&T. It's more of if AT&T wanted to compete in the video biz, they needed to buy their customers. U-Verse was growing but not at the rate that management wanted. They are the largest Pay TV provider.

Lets move on shall we??...Nobody really cares about ATT...next topic please!

[midas360]

@muscle... I am speculating that all your comments about Disney, etc... were because of this write up or similar write ups or reports?

Disney, Time Warner and Other Media Shares Fall as Investors Worry About TV’s Future

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/06/bu...ture.html?_r=0

Edit: Off to the pool. Gotta love the Texas weather!

[MUSCLE13]

Midas - The reason Comcast had its best Q2 video sub quarter in 9 years is because Cable is finally taking back Sat TV's video share. X1 is the best video product out there and its blending TV and internet. Broadband sold in a package with video works. That's why Sat TV is starting to lose video subs after years of taking share away from cable. Cable's broadband and video together will make Sat TV go the way of the TV roof antenna.

Malone has said it many times - Cable has the most cost efficient way of getting to Gigabit broadband speeds. Not Telco fiber, cable broadband. That is why he invested in Charter and why Charter is buying Time Warner Cable.

As far as Netflix and Hulu destroying cable -

1. How do you watch Netflix and Hulu without a broadband subscription?

2. Who owns Hulu? Comcast Disney and Fox do.

3. Who owns most of the programming content that is on Netflix and Hulu? All the major broadcast networks cable and movie studios. Who owns a major broadcast network, 15 major cable networks and the most successful major movie studio this year - Comcast. Netflix is projected to spend $5 billion a year on buying content.

I am not going to get into the cable wifi initiative yet. But they likely will enter the wireless business in the next couple of years. Comcast already has 10 million public hotspots. And when they enter, the price wars that are already in the wireless space are going to get worse for the telcos.

Basically I think Sat TV and Telco are the 2 worst positioned businesses in the "media" space right now. I think Content and Cable are best positioned for the broadband era and I think that is why Malone is so high on both cable and content.

[MUSCLE13]

As far as Sirius is concerned, I believe that over the next 20 years, Yes I said 20 years, Sirius radio will be preinstalled in every single car in this country (all 240 million on the road) with BOTH Sirius Sat Radio and Sirius Internet radio. Both in every single car.

[midas360]

@Muscle... Did you see the Barron's article from yesterday?

The Media Mess

Media stocks got clocked last week, after Disney said it might sell ESPN directly to consumers. Is the cable bundle coming apart?

http://online.barrons.com/news/artic...MTA4OTAwNzk4Wj


20 years????? ALOT can happen in 20 years. HAHAHA

[user34615145]

As far as Sirius is concerned, I believe that over the next 20 years, Yes I said 20 years, Sirius radio will be preinstalled in every single car in this country (all 240 million on the road) with BOTH Sirius Sat Radio and Sirius Internet radio. Both in every single car.

20 years ago Blockbuster felt confident that they'd be dominant force in the video rental business by 2013. Can't say they were wrong.

Buggy Whips and Battleships....Just two basic and indispensable items who's time has passed them by.

[user34615145]

I do appreciate and enjoy the discussion of DIS, T, P, AAPL and other stocks on this forum. I realize that this is a SiriusXM focused forum but jeez, we need SOMETHING to talk about and discuss while SIRI continues to do nothing every day!
Keep the ideas and coming and let's keep it fresh, and maybe eventually every once and a while SIRI will do something noteworthy worth discussing too!