But the bottom line is Sirius XM's stock price is tied to LMCA's stock price. If the committee asks for a more favorable ratio for Sirius XM shareholders, it becomes less favorable for LMCA thus driving down both LMCA stock price and Sirius XM's bid price. LMCA's current stock price puts Sirius XM at $3.60 per share. It's actually a very good move by Malone.
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Again....that's a one sided proposal as a negotiation starting point. You make it sound as if the deal is DONE and that no negotiation will take place. That doesn't seem to be the case. From what I understand this is the beginning of the negotiation.
Last edited by denco1; 01-07-2014 at 03:20 PM.
I would say it's a brilliant move by Malone. Think about it - LCMA is mostly SIRI stock with some other companies partially thrown in - Does LCMA own any company outright that can impact their bottom line number during an earnings release (good or bad)?
Originally Posted by midas360
No... what I am saying is the deal is based on a ratio. It's not a fixed price. Reread what I said. Better yet, read what Spencer wrote so I don't have to rewrite it here.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1931...-xm-is-a-ratio
Edit: The committee would be better off throwing out the ratio and negotiating a fixed price offer at a higher price for Sirius XM shareholders. And yes Denco, you are correct. Anything can happen but based on the current proposal that we all know about... well...
Last edited by midas360; 01-07-2014 at 02:28 PM.
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Midas, my point is that it is an initial proposal in a negotiation that most likely will change over the negotiation period.
Can anyone explain why if Liberty A already owns 52% of Sirius and they want to buy the other 48% of Sirius with Liberty stock that they also get C shares in the deal. That sounds more like they are spinning Sirius out of the A shares. but it has been said that C shares are not a Sirius tracking stock and equally own all the liberty companies just like A shares. Don't understand why the A shares are also getting C shares when they are the buyer. Just trying to figure if I should sell Siri to buy Liberty A and get C as well.
@ negotiation discussion and Malone's crafting of the deal to absorb SIRI in Liberty Media.
Even though I hate the idea that litigation may be the result of this consolidation occurring (the lawyers will be the big winners), the threat of litigation has to be real in order for the (bogus) SIRI committee to act in good faith- for the SIRI shareholders.
That said, I accept what some of you are saying, along the lines of Malone's shrewdness in crafting this "ratio" offer.
But, SIRI reets should not have to accept a low PPS because of Malone's abilities with regard to structuring the deal. SIRI reets deserve a fair PPS- PLUS A PREMIUM. If LMCA shareholders suffer due to SIRI reets getting a fair price, then LMCA shareholders can pursue legal action against the LMCA B.O.D!!
I share denco's view that this whole process will be a negotiation. To simply accept 3.68 because Malone is smart enough to have painted both parties into a (the same) corner would be, in my opinion, a mistake.
Slapshot... remember, there is no "price" being offered here. That's the point I was making. Unless the special committee can convince Malone to throw out the ratio offer all together, then investors are tied to LMCA's stock price. I can only imagine what happens if LMCA and/or Sirius XM has a bad quarter. I can only comment on what they've offered. Everything else is speculation.
I WIN. GAME OVER. CHECK MATE. I CONTROL YOUR EVERY MOVE. WATCH WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
My head hurts. I'm gonna get a beer.That's what I think of this deal.
Midas, I think their points is that the current "deal" is a starting point. Nothing is set in stone, the committee could say no dice on the ratio, offer a fixed price buyout or request a better ratio. The main point just being this is all getting started and no one can predict (everything is speculation like you say) how the cards will fall in the end.
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