Europe's pain is coming America's way

[Havakasha]

he doesnt seem to reply to the fact that he was just a tad (lol) simplistic in relaying what
Mr. Moheban said about gold. The sure sign of a "low level thinker".


I dont "like" this guy. I just thought it was an intelligent counterpoint to Mr. Schiff. Clearly
so far mr. Schiff has been wrong on inflation (and many other things) and mr. Moheban has been
right. As far as whether it was smarter to invest in gold from the price of $1,350 or something else
(siri etc. Lol) only time will tell us. Its going to very interesting.


Always like to bring it back to Mr SeriouslyWrongs favorite economic theorist and theories.


Have you have been able to research these facts?
Please explain. Thanks.



"In other words, Peter Schiff may be a classic case of a stopped clock: he's been predicting a market decline FOREVER and when the market has declined he's hailed as a genius by his cult fans."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1068...hiff-right-now

Now, had you listened to Peter in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 or even 3/4 of 2007, you lost your shirt. Had you placed bets based on Schiff's market calls, you lost everything you wagered.

The S&P (.INX) went from 1054 in May of 2002 (the date of the interview) to 1561 in Oct. 2007, a 48% gain and the Dow (.DJI) rose 40%.

Banking stocks, the primary victim of the housing bust, went up (JP Morgan (JPM) 36%, Bank of America (BAC) 41%, Wells Fargo (WFC) 39% , Wachovia (WB) 31% and American Express (AXP) 51%) during that time frame (dividends excluded which would dramatically add to results).

Bottom line? Had you listened to Mr. Schiff at anytime before Oct. 2007, you lost...big. To those who did, there is little consolation in the praise being heaped on him today.

Milton Freidman said, "markets can stay dislocated longer than you can stay solvent." For those who bet with Schiff between 2002-2007, they know the statement well.

Why is it a big deal? After all, Berkshire's (BRK.A) Warren Buffett claims he cannot time the market and often watches share prices decline in investments (like recent investments in Goldman Sachs (GS) and GE) before a rebound. How is this any different?

For one, Warren's loss is limited to his investment. He buys 1 share of stock "a" at $25. $25 is the most he can lose.

Now, if we listen to Peter and "short" stock "a" at 25, our loss has no limit. If it goes to $100, we lose $75. In shorting, we are only limited in our upside. If "a" goes to zero, "Schiffers" profit $25.

Buffett's strategy is an investing one and Schiff's is a trading and timing one.

Buffett followers can hold their shares, collect their dividend and wait for the rebound. Schiff followers collect no dividend and watched for over 5 years as their bet went wrong. How many stuck around? How many shorted into every market drop or "presumed" top over 5 years, only repeatedly losing money as the market kept rising and Schiff kept pounding his message home?

Schiff should not be getting the praise he is getting today for being "so right" after saying the same thing and being "so wrong" for the previous 5 years.

[SiriuslyLong]

Lloyd, you can lose a lot of money on ANYONE'S predictions. Good Lord are you a mess.

For him being so wildly wrong for so many years, I must be amazing in that I've made money. Would you agree that I am amazing?

I love that last line. Allow me to reverse it.

I believe your anti-praise of him IS ideologically based and lacking in FACT BASED THOUGHT (remember - these FACTS didn't happen http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw)

Lloyd beleives it didn't happen. What a hoot. What a morning....

We've been down this road, remember? Remember when I forced you to understand the basis of Schiff's comments? Or have you conveniently "forgotten"?

[SiriuslyLong]

Stopped back for one last edit I see.

Regarding Schiff, be reminded that this thread is entitled, "Europe's pain is coming America's way". For some reason, you interjected Schiff into the discussion as you have in several other threads. Candidly, you really haven't demonstrated or provided clear "evidence" on anything. Schiff is EXTREMELY TRANSPARENT.

As far as Schiff admitting he is wrong, clearly the man is convinced that America is on an usustainable path just like you. I am not going to call him A LIAR because of his beliefs. He was clearly convinced in 2006 and 2007 that 1.) there was a housing bubble, and 2.) it would burst sending us into long hard recession. You know those results. Take away what you want, but for me, it's worth a more in depth look what he's saying REGARDLESS OF POLITICS.

Another reminder.

[SiriuslyLong]

You're like a little baby. Here, I'll play along. HYPERINFLATION has not occured, nor has gold reach $12,000 nor has the Dow gone to 1400. And I hope the don't (I have to double back a little on the gold - I'm invested in it).

Now it is time to discuss real ignorance. Instead of understanding the basis of these predictions, you simply hold them up as some sort of flag (I honestly don't know what you are going for). You agree that the ever growing national debt is unsustainable, but will not disuss what that might lead to.

Well Lloyd, the things Schiff discusses may very well be ramafications of ever growing national debt. I don't know. I am not an economist. You dismiss them as "wrong predictions", but fail to put forth any inevitibility of ever increasing national debt. Keep in mind, you "agree" that it is unsustainable.

It's actually a fairly easy topic to understand, but you don't want to because then you would have to agree with Schiff that "bad things" could happen if our ever increasing national debt is not addressed.

Speaks volumes to me Lloyd.

I'm sure he closed his eyes when he read this one. Get it?

[Havakasha]

I understand you cant find a way to defend it. Its embarassing. Sorry,
but this is one area where i will give you no mercy. You will have to live
this down forever. LOL.


http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/


Peter Schiff is Wrong __ James Turk is Wrong


Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital newsletter from April of 2009 stands out as especially revealing. That newsletter clearly demonstrates just how far off the proponents of the Austrian school are on understanding inflation and hyperinflation. The newsletter featured a guest article written a month earlier by James Turk entitled "On the Cusp of Hyperinflation". [James Turk is the author of The Collapse of the Dollar and the founder of goldmoney.com.] In this March 2009 article, James Turk enumerated 6 reasons for his predicting that "hyperinflation of the US dollar is imminent" and also said "[the US dollar] is on the cusp of hyperinflation. I expect this to become increasingly clear within twelve months." Of course this hyperinflation prediction has proven to be wildly off the mark. Average consumer price inflation by any measure has registered in the low to mid single digits in the 2½ years since. Nevertheless, in September of 2010, eighteen months after his 'hyperinflation within a year' prediction, Turk unapologetically published another such prediction, in which he hyperlinked to his original prediction. Though no doubt he is sincere, James Turk is dead wrong. It will be interesting to see for how many more years James Turk and Peter Schiff, et al, will continue to reiterate these runaway inflation predictions that will completely fail to materialize.

[SiriuslyLong]

I understand you cant find a way to defend it. Its embarassing. Sorry,
but this is one area where i will give you no mercy. You will have to live
this down forever. LOL.


http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/


Peter Schiff is Wrong __ James Turk is Wrong


Peter Schiff's Euro Pacific Capital newsletter from April of 2009 stands out as especially revealing. That newsletter clearly demonstrates just how far off the proponents of the Austrian school are on understanding inflation and hyperinflation. The newsletter featured a guest article written a month earlier by James Turk entitled "On the Cusp of Hyperinflation". [James Turk is the author of The Collapse of the Dollar and the founder of goldmoney.com.] In this March 2009 article, James Turk enumerated 6 reasons for his predicting that "hyperinflation of the US dollar is imminent" and also said "[the US dollar] is on the cusp of hyperinflation. I expect this to become increasingly clear within twelve months." Of course this hyperinflation prediction has proven to be wildly off the mark. Average consumer price inflation by any measure has registered in the low to mid single digits in the 2½ years since. Nevertheless, in September of 2010, eighteen months after his 'hyperinflation within a year' prediction, Turk unapologetically published another such prediction, in which he hyperlinked to his original prediction. Though no doubt he is sincere, James Turk is dead wrong. It will be interesting to see for how many more years James Turk and Peter Schiff, et al, will continue to reiterate these runaway inflation predictions that will completely fail to materialize.

It's HAPPENING LMFAO....................

[Havakasha]

This, folks, is your fair warning: Peter Schiff, James Turk, John Williams, Marc Faber, Charles Goyette and others will surely continue ad nauseum with their predictions of runaway inflation in the dollar but consumer prices simply aren't going to cooperate with them. Sooner or later these pundits will have to face the reality of radically lower consumer price inflation than they predict. Eventually their predictions will lose all credibility. These guys really don't understand economics holistically—especially the factors affecting why people raise prices. Yes, I say factors (plural), as Milton Friedman's famous quote, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" is simply wrong. And I say people, as the Austrian school simply views consumer prices as inextricably linked to the money supply, as if little else matters, such as people's perceptions, and people's propensities for taking pricing action (or no action). You just can't have a viable price inflation model that completely removes human behavior from the equation. Sorry Milton.


Keep reading... Click on link

http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/

[Havakasha]

Yesterday, 11:42 PM #2

Although Peter Schiff and certain Austrian economists talk a very convincing talk, they are dead wrong on several fronts. Their key tenets stem from faulty premises which they stubbornly refuse to reconsider. Their conclusions follow from simplistic and unrealistic half-truths. For example, consider the catchphrase, "You can't spend your way to prosperity." It is half-true, because for an individual, spending will indeed reduce rather than increase his/her own wealth. But for a whole economy it's a very different story. One consumer's spending is a zero-sum wealth transfer in terms of the whole (since the spending of one party is always revenue to another party). It’s a wash. Total spending equals total revenue (ignoring taxes & entitlements), and so as total spending goes up, total revenues go up in lockstep. Spending and revenues are really like two sides of the same coin.

Consider that if all spending were to cease, then all revenues would also cease. No spending by anyone would mean no income for anyone, and then there would be no economy. Prosperity would of course be impossible. For the whole, then, consumer spending acts as essential to prosperity by enabling its flip side—income. And spending is also what entices further production. For example, a retailer may initially stock a certain amount of a product, but will not order any more of it until the product has been selling. Consumer buying is thus essential to support jobs in goods manufacturing. There is no question that consumer spending's flip side is revenue (income) and that consumer spending also boosts both production and employment. So why does a guy like Peter Schiff keep saying that consumer spending is bad for the economy and that investing/saving is good?

Saving rather than spending is good for the individual, yes, but people parking money in savings is detrimental stagnation for the economy as a whole. (These pundits fail to see such distinctions.) It's no coincidence that since the 2008 crises, just as we've had the weakest economy in generations, record amounts of cash have been idly 'sitting on the sidelines' on corporate balance sheets, in bank reserves, and in Americans' portfolios.

Austrian economics is enjoying so much resurgence these days that Mises and Hayek are actually now on the lips of several candidates in the 2012 election cycle. But don't be fooled. Austrian economics misleads because it is based upon plausible-sounding half-truths. Bottom line: the overwhelmingly likely future inflation scenario is that average consumer prices will continue to rise only in the single digits for many years to come. This is despite trillions of 'money printing' by the Fed being quite likely. I personally think it's even highly probable that consumer prices will average low single digit inflation, i.e. below 5.5%, over the next 5 years and beyond. That would mean, on average, goods and services will cost at the most about one third more than they do today by November of 2016. Copy the URL for my website into your google calendar a year or two out as a reminder to check back for new articles and updates—I'll see you then!

[SiriuslyLong]

This, folks, is your fair warning: Peter Schiff, James Turk, John Williams, Marc Faber, Charles Goyette and others will surely continue ad nauseum with their predictions of runaway inflation in the dollar but consumer prices simply aren't going to cooperate with them. Sooner or later these pundits will have to face the reality of radically lower consumer price inflation than they predict. Eventually their predictions will lose all credibility. These guys really don't understand economics holistically—especially the factors affecting why people raise prices. Yes, I say factors (plural), as Milton Friedman's famous quote, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" is simply wrong. And I say people, as the Austrian school simply views consumer prices as inextricably linked to the money supply, as if little else matters, such as people's perceptions, and people's propensities for taking pricing action (or no action). You just can't have a viable price inflation model that completely removes human behavior from the equation. Sorry Milton.


Keep reading... Click on link

No Link................ LMFAO. Going, going.....

[Havakasha]

Gone. http://www.hyperinflation-us.com/