Sirius Weekly Thread May 31-June 14 2010

[SiriuslyLong]

Looks like Mel will be on Fast Money Halftime report @ 12:30 next Thursday 6/10 the day before the Russell inclusion list is released. Always expect something new to be announced on these events, so not getting my hopes up...but, would really be nice with the Russell on Friday...

In any event, it will b e fun to watch the CNBC folks squirm as Mel tells them how well the company is doing and the improving prospects...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37491732/

Thanks again for the news Boomer. Good Stuff. AT&T got smart, and others will indeed follow. These companies need "reinvestment economics" to get to 5G, 6G...... People think this stuff is for free lol.

SIRI is getting drug with the market today. No problem, perhaps a buying opportunity will come of it.

It'll be an interesting Monday; especially if Hungry goes Hungry.

[candleman]

Thanks again for the news Boomer. Good Stuff. AT&T got smart, and others will indeed follow. These companies need "reinvestment economics" to get to 5G, 6G...... People think this stuff is for free lol.

SIRI is getting drug with the market today. No problem, perhaps a buying opportunity will come of it.

It'll be an interesting Monday; especially if Hungry goes Hungry.

We sure don't seem to be able to hold on to the dollar mark very long these days.

SIRI has had a good run for the last 15 months, but I think we may be at the top for awhile. Might be worth considering the idea of shaving some profits here and moving on to other stocks till the Blue Dog decides to run again.

[Boomer]

Candleman, Think I will wait to see how the Russel plays out this month before shaving any shares. In fact, at these blue light special prices I recently added another 5,000 shares at .921.

[SiriuslyLong]

Candleman, Think I will wait to see how the Russel plays out this month before shaving any shares. In fact, at these blue light special prices I recently added another 5,000 shares at .921.

I agree with Boomer. SIRI is just out of the gates in terms of making money and generating cash. Is this "baked in" to the current pps? Maybe, but the run up was on solidifying their financial situation. Now SIRI is generating positive results. One would think that the hype would be higher now that they are actually putting out positive results. The speculation now is HOW MUCH money, not if they will make money. it's a bear market right now, and hard to beat the momentum. But this will turn around soon enough, and when it does....

From the manufacturing segment, things are looking just dandy. My company has hired 10 - 15 heads, and is putting more production personnel in place. We are presenting our parent with a plan to increase capacity (sold out on some assets). Whether it is warrented or not, the economy is chugging along from my perspective. This bear market will end soon enough. We're all a little gun shy.

[Boomer]

Well don't expect much out of Mel today of Fast Money...but would be nice to have a positive surprise of some sort with the Russel tomorrow...just sayin

[Boomer]

if you missed the video on Fast Money, here is the link:

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/manag...eback-20265607

[Boomer]

Go figure...MS should be embarrassed to have this guy of the payroll...

Sirius XM: Morgan Stanley Launches With $1 Price Target
by Eric Savitz

In a fairly unusual research note, Morgan Stanley analyst David Gober this morning launched coverage of Sirius XM (SIRI) with a designation of “Not Rated” and a target of $1, a penny below yesterday’s close.

“After completing the Sirius/ XM merger, a refinancing of its balance sheet, and weathering the recent recession, Sirius XM has emerged as a more stable company with several key opportunities,” he writes in the note. :”However, the company will likely continue to experience volatility in its share price as its ultimate free cash flow outlook becomes clearer. We are initiating coverage at Not Rated as we believe that equity values will remain highly volatile due to relatively high leverage and still relatively small free cash flow.”

Gober sees three opportunities for the satellite ratio company:

The company should continue to grow subscribers as U.S. car sales pick up with its service available in about 60% of new cars sold.
Used cars: the company estimates that there are 7-8 million U.S. cars with satellite radios that are not paying for service. As cars are resold, Sirius can gain subs with relatively low acquisition costs.
Mobile Internet-enabled devices could help SIRI’s growth.
But he also sees three risks for the company and the stock:

Competition from mobile Internet devices. “Growing penetration of smart phones and increasing mobile broadband speeds have increased the availability of Internet radio services such as Pandora.”
Maturation: The 3% drop in subs in the recession “may provide signs of maturation,” and he says that “SIRI must grow to expand equity value.”
Leverage: The company has over $3 billion in debt and is levered at 4.5-5x. “Modest sub losses could lead to negative free cash flow,” he warns.
SIRI this morning is unchanged at $1.01.


http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...d=yahoobarrons

[Boomer]

How come there is so little activity on this forum thread? This is the thread that discusses the common stock of SXM, right? Surprising to me esp., with the Russell happening today?

[Spencer Osborne]

Russell Index additions and deletions not posted yet...awaiting them now

[candleman]

How come there is so little activity on this forum thread? This is the thread that discusses the common stock of SXM, right? Surprising to me esp., with the Russell happening today?

Hey Boomer,
My guess about the low activity in this thread is this.... SIRI has been stuck in the dollar range for quite some time now. There really hasn't been much to talk about. I hold over 400K shares and I've been in this for several years. It's kind of a hold and wait situation at the moment.

It's been really GREAT having you on board and posting here. Thank you for that. Keep up the good work! Hopefully, we'll see some price movement in the near future and the thread will fire up again.

And to be quite honest. Spencer has been doing such a super job of keeping us informed with his news stories, that there really isn't much to add. Spencer is a great commentator and anylist.

A lot of us who hold SIRI also play other stocks and you may want to follow along in the Market Watch thread.

Have a great weekend man!
Chuck