SiriusXM Weekly Stock Thread for March 29, 2010

[Sirius Roadkill]

Wow! Just noticed today's close at $0.871 . . . I guess the cockroaches are taking "cover" in advance of tomorrow's auto #'s . . . the next leg up starts here . .

Also, as to Sirius XM reportedly requesting a later date for the appeals hearing on the R/S . . . my own opinion is that NASDAQ will amend the listing rules anyway to include a formula which accounts for total market cap or trading volume or some other such formula that will essentially be custom-tailored to Sirius XM . . . so no sense in stepping on the toes of that process

and btw, the whole appeals panel thing is little more than a dog and pony show for public consumption . . . these so-called "independent panels" really aren't all that independent

Bernie Madoff used to sit on the NASDAQ Board . . . nothing more than a good-ole-boys network

But I don't know nuthin (nice usage of King's English, huh?) so DYODD

[proactiv]

Welcome back Proact. Hope all went well with your visit, and it wasn't
all grueling.



Julie

Hey Julie,
It's even getting hot in Chicago! I'll be back there is 3-4 weeks. Is all the snow gone by you?

[Sirius Roadkill]

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...lion-saar.html

[Sirius Roadkill]

"Echoing the seemingly unheard sentiments of the knowledgeable investors in Sirius XM (SIRI : 0.8376, -0.0284) and to the dismay of the shorts who are currently in control, SIRI will not be delisted. Recently, I have received a significant amount of questions in regards to the delisting so I wanted to briefly explain why I am adding to my position rather than selling. Mel Karmazin has already explained this issue in the latest conference call from the last earnings release, which can be found here. Karmazin states with complete confidence, "There is absolutely no concern about SIRIUS XM continuing to be listed and traded on NASDAQ."

Link:

http://www.istockanalyst.com/article...icleid/3995444

[Sirius Roadkill]

Hey john . . what is your projection for Q1 subs given the 11.8 SAAR for March?

Also, what is your take on one-time charges for the refi as to when they are booked?

Danke

[john]

Ho I love this one. Did anyone see the latest article by Demian Russian (satwaves) This from his article:

"Details of the new GM deal were discussed. Sirius XM renewed its contract with GM at the end of 2008, which the company has stated was much more favorable than the previous deal. Frear spoke of “a second leg of changes” to the GM deal that will take place in 2013. These changes will bring a “meaningful” boost to 2014 adjusted EBITDA, according to Frear. This new contract with GM goes out to 2020"

The funny thing is this is not news at all it was all in the 10-Q BACK IN MAY OF LAST YEAR. Here that is:

"We entered into several agreements which improved our financial position. We entered into an agreement with General Motors to extend the term of XM’s distribution agreement to 2020, to improve the economic terms of the arrangement, and postpone, at XM’s option, certain payments, with interest, to General Motors. We also entered into agreements with certain other third parties to, among other things, restructure lump sum payments coming due; eliminate escrow arrangements in exchange for prepayment of the amount released; and extend agreements. We may enter into similar agreements with additional third parties."

Here is the link (goto the bottom of page 5):

http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/...3125-09-105734


The point is news is not news to people that take the time to research a company they are investing in. It also begs the question, just how relieable is Crockett or the people he works for (Lazard Capital) if they needed David Frear to spell it out for them.

I mean jesssss, I am not a professional investor but if I took the time to read the 10-Qs then you would think these analyst would at least do the same wouldn't you!!!!!!

[john]

Hey john . . what is your projection for Q1 subs given the 11.8 SAAR for March?

Also, what is your take on one-time charges for the refi as to when they are booked?

Danke

I will first admit I projected a small loss from what I was seeing, then a small gain. I am now thinking (from this months OEM sales) that if they have a all-in churn of something like 2.5 then they will have close to 100,000 sub gain. I also think Mel figured they would lose subs in the first quarter and then make it up in the following 3 quarters so I think depending on how well the 2nd quarter gos Mel may have no choice but to up his subscriber adds for 2010.


I also think they book them this quarter and and I will say what I said in the begining of the year, "There will be no GAAP profit this year". For this reason but also mainly because of what David Frear said in the 4th quarter CC. He basically said that there were going to be charges and larger cost when the OEMs pick up production this year. We all know that as they make more cars so go the increase in cost for subsidies to the OEMs

[SiriMonkey]

Hey Julie,
It's even getting hot in Chicago! I'll be back there is 3-4 weeks. Is all the snow gone by you?

Snow is gone!! Sat outside at lunch today and saw the temp on the building,
73. Tomorrow projected high (a record) 84!! We went from winter
straight to summer. Well at least my furnace is getting
a much needed rest, and my wallet, no propane delivery!

Great you're able to get back to Chicago as often as you do. Such a beautiful
city with so much to do. Felt very comfortable there. Walked, walked and walked some more. Fell in love with panni's, quick and so good.

I hope all is well with your family Proact.

Julie