SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 11/03/08

[Demian]

And I will call it here first:
Sirius XM Q3 numbers will look horrible due to a TON of one time charges, but the churn will remain stable, and you will hear some surprising numbers regarding subscriber numbers (their estimate of 19.5 million by YE of 08 will nearly be reached already, if not surpassed), information about refinancing (or paying off) of the March debt, as well as very positive numbers regarding Best Of. All of this will lead to a pop in stock price.

Remember, I called it first.

Newman,

I don't think you're the first to call some of those things, but if the stock doesn't pop, can I blame you?

I have been saying that I thought the two recent stock for debt exchanges are part of a bigger deal that will be announced by the Q3 CC. It also has been reported that Mel himself had stated that there were already 19.5 million subscribers. I'm not sure how accurate that was, but I do think they surpass 20 million subs this year - easy! I'm assuming that the initial surge in "Best Of" adoption will be mentioned in the Q3 CC also. I think the one time charges will be mostly offset with some immediate cost saving synergies from the merger. There also was like no advertising costs in Q3...

[Demian]

The day starts with another daily bashing from The Motley Fool and my comments left under their worthless article...

http://www.fool.com/investing/small-...mentsBoxAnchor

On November 05, 2008, at 7:29 AM, DemianBohemian wrote:
Was it a "great call" when The Motley Fool was recommending XM as a stand alone company to it's paid subscribers when it was over $30 a share? Now The Motley Fool bashes the combined company on a daily basis at these penny stock levels? I can't believe the daily bashing The Motley Fool dishes out on SIRI day after day....

[Demian]

Nov. 4, 2008 Market Close: $ 0.315

After Hours Trade Reporting

After Hours
Last: $ .32
After Hours
High: $ .32
After Hours
Volume: 519,882
After Hours
Low: $ .3017

[Demian]

Nov. 5th, 2008

Pre-Market Trade Reporting

Pre-Market
Last: $ .316
Pre-Market
High: $ .32
Pre-Market
Volume: 23,941
Pre-Market
Low: $ .31

08:16 $ .316 4,000
08:14 $ .318 3,725
08:13 $ .318 631
08:11 $ .318 500
08:10 $ .318 4,319
08:09 $ .315 200
08:06 $ .317 1,500
08:03 $ .31 1,600
08:01 $ .315 600
08:01 $ .31 600
08:01 $ .31 100
08:01 $ .31 100
08:01 $ .31 1,000
08:01 $ .31 3,000
08:00 $ .32 666
08:00 $ .32 1,200
08:00 $ .32 200

[Demian]

http://www.mediabuyerplanner.com/200...ng-auto-sales/

Sirius XM Faces Lawsuit, Struggles amidst Falling Auto Sales

A group of shareholders of the formerly independent Sirius Satellite Radio are saying that top executives purposely worked to erode the value of the company in order to take the company private at a discount.
Led by Michael Hartlieb, the shareholders - part of a 500-strong group called Save Sirius - have sued Sirius XM Satellite Radio for sabotaging stock values and violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act.
The lawsuit, which was originally filed last July but was amended last week, states (via Beta News): “On or about June 29,2008… Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. acquired XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. in a stock swap. Prior to closing, the merger was described as a ‘merger of equals’ by management. However, as a result of the merger, Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. took on approximately $620 million in debt from XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. The individual Board of Directors… and officers of Sirius… refinanced the debt on such bad terms that the merger severely damaged the value of Sirius.”
Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen issued a report yesterday (Monday) noting that falling auto sales for 2008 and into 2009 are troubling for satellite radio, as the OEM channel has been a key part of satellite radio growth.
Between slipping sales, a lousy credit market and a mountain of debt, analysts on Wall Street see real challenges for the newly merged company, writes Seeking Alpha.

[Demian]

Nov.5th, 2008

SIRI Pivot Table
R1 - R1 - Pivot - S1 - S2
0.42 0.37 0.33 0.28 0.24

[Demian]

SIRI right on S1 @ .28

It is just unbelievable what a nightmare this stock has been. It has broken so many hearts and has caused so much pain in so many peoples lives. The stock is being manipulated somehow. It is just amazing the way it trades - always teasing everyone with a gain in AH and a spike in the morning and then they hammer it everyday again. How can this keep working day after day?

How can so many shares trade hands and the share price not move at all?

How can the price move down so much on such low volume?

How can so many 100 and 200 share blocks trade everyday out of the CINN?

How can such small blocks move the price?

How can such huge block trades not move the price?

How can it just flatline for hours?

Why are these trades getting filled way under the bid and the ask?

Something is messed up..........

[Keysmark]

Demian,

I don't have answers to any of your questions. I just want you to know that you are not alone on this forum.

[GetItStraight]

So Demian,

You post the pivots. Can you tell me the strength at each pivot point?

You have .28 listed as a pivot. Does this now mean that we will head back up in your opinion?

[Demian]

Demian,

I don't have answers to any of your questions. I just want you to know that you are not alone on this forum.

Thanks Keysmark,

It gets lonely here, but hopefully it won't always be that way. I'm trying to keep this intraday thread flowing until more people join in...