SIRI Weekly Thread for 8-17-09

[MichGoBlue]

Yeah, we'll have a take down. But the upward trend is really looking good, and it's already trading differently this quarter. I expect some takedowns from time to time, but I also expect a continued upward trend over time. Just MHO though!

I hope so, I've got more to buy! Geez, are the 50's gone now too?

[john]

Yes Siriusowner. Let me tell you my story with you. I came by in Jan or Feb, I forget, and read the daily thread. Noticed this Demian guy was all over the place, for one. And then there was another guy named Siriusowner. Read 2 of your posts. I then ripped you. This was 6 MONTHS AGO. And your still here annoying people. I didnt need 100 posts to know your a basher/liar, and wished you gone. How dare you attack someone with Irish's reputation, you piece of twit(thanks John, love that word). Why dont you go insult my mother while your at it too!!!
You offer nothing but negative, hateful, bashing comments. You're a troll basically.

First relmor, you just butcherd and then bastardized the word "twit". Second I forget is Siriusowner the same guy that tried to use a poll on these forums to try and show how much of a percentage of family plans SIRIXM had, which was way over schewed and there by showed the family plans to be way higher then common sense and logic (not to mention what XMSR/SIRI/SIRIXM said they were) would dictate. Who then tried to defend the results after I and then Tyler showed his results could not possible be.





P.S. You see lloyd I also tear apart other false polls.









P.S.S That whole first part was just to get a dig in at lloyd (sorry Siriusowner).









P.S.S.S. but that poll on family plans did suck.

[proactiv]

I hope so, I've got more to buy! Geez, are the 50's gone now too?

Someone on this forum speculated a few days ago: are the .50's the new .40's? As we rocket towards .70, I'm thinking the .60's are the new benchmark, with a higher benchmark soon to follow.

At any rate, we are 100 minutes into the trading session and already close to 80MM shares have been traded. This is good.

Hey, I'm all for starting a fund to get candleman the latest and greatest in bicyle technology!

[john]

I hope so, I've got more to buy! Geez, are the 50's gone now too?

and Big Ben is now wondering if he should move his bid up again or just wait. I said this kind of shit happens, weather this is it or not does not matter you never play with a huge portion or your whole position.


P.S. Dam I just sold another lot at .68. Ho well plenty more were that came from (The fact is it is sad that there is, plenty more).

[proactiv]

We have kissed .70 this morning..

[lloyd Handwerker]

[QUOTE=john;48340]First relmor, you just butcherd and then bastardized the word "twit". Second I forget is Siriusowner the same guy that tried to use a poll on these forums to try and show how much of a percentage of family plans SIRIXM had, which was way over schewed and there by showed the family plans to be way higher then common sense and logic (not to mention what XMSR/SIRI/SIRIXM said they were) would dictate. Who then tried to defend the results after I and then Tyler showed his results could not possible be.





P.S. You see lloyd I also tear apart other false polls.




LOL.
Was that the Msnbc poll or NBC/Wall street Journal poll you were talking about?

Too bad you can't always distinquish between the false and the truthful polls.
Dont worry there will be plenty more polls coming along to show Fox viewers level of misinformation though I have no hope that you will ever believe anything other than what you want to believe. Death panels anyone?

[underway]

We have kissed .70 this morning..

Yeah, this is good stuff. Tyler's latest piece was well crafted and really lays it out pretty well. I like that 'skydock' thing. cool name, too.

[doctorex]

Please refer to the previous analysis by doctorex indicating that $17 per share is a reasonable steady state mature price for SIRI.

$17 IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

there are about 250,000,000 SIRI target vehicles in the u.s.a. of these, about 40%, let us say, hate advertising so much that, once exposed to siri, they will be lifetime customers. this corresponds to the current 44% long-term take-up rate among new car buyers. this represents a fully mature count of about 100 million subs. count doctorex among this group.

100 million subs at $15 per month is $1.5 billion per month revenue, or about $18 billion annual revenue.

at least half of this would be pure GAAP profit. prove it by looking at the last quarterly report. total SIRI expenses for everything, including financing, etc., are about $700 million quarterly, or $8 billion annual. variable costs are almost zero, because the satellites are in place already, and all management has to do to service additional subs is basically to throw a switch and turn on their receivers.

therefore 100 million subs would represent revenue of about $18 billion and profit, let us say, because of low variable cost, of about $1 billion per month, or $12 billion per year. (this particular step is based on conservative assumptions.)

apply a p/e. considering the strong prospects outlined, a p/e of 30 is reasonable. ebay, msft, and google were all p/e of 100 or higher at some point.

this calculates to enterprise value of $360 billion, which is approximately the value of GE or MSFT at their high points. this is a little bit high, maybe, but not by much, if we have 100 million subs.

divide total enterprise value by 4 billion shares, and voila, $90 per share.

DOCTOREX DECLARES $90 PER SIRI SHARE IS POSSIBLE. BUY. BUY. BUY.

[underway]

Please refer to the previous analysis by doctorex indicating that $17 per share is a reasonable steady state mature price for SIRI.

$17 IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH.

there are about 250,000,000 SIRI target vehicles in the u.s.a. of these, about 40%, let us say, hate advertising so much that, once exposed to siri, they will be lifetime customers. this corresponds to the current 44% long-term take-up rate among new car buyers. this represents a fully mature count of about 100 million subs. count doctorex among this group.

100 million subs at $15 per month is $1.5 billion per month revenue, or about $18 billion annual revenue.

at least half of this would be pure GAAP profit. prove it by looking at the last quarterly report. total SIRI expenses for everything, including financing, etc., are about $700 million quarterly, or $8 billion annual. variable costs are almost zero, because the satellites are in place already, and all management has to do to service additional subs is basically to throw a switch and turn on their receivers.

therefore 100 million subs would represent revenue of about $18 billion and profit, let us say, because of low variable cost, of about $1 billion per month, or $12 billion per year. (this particular step is based on conservative assumptions.)

apply a p/e. considering the strong prospects outlined, a p/e of 30 is reasonable. ebay, msft, and google were all p/e of 100 or higher at some point.

this calculates to enterprise value of $360 billion, which is approximately the value of GE or MSFT at their high points. this is a little bit high, maybe, but not by much, if we have 100 million subs.

divide total enterprise value by 4 billion shares, and voila, $90 per share.

DOCTOREX DECLARES $90 PER SIRI SHARE IS POSSIBLE. BUY. BUY. BUY.

Huh? what you smokin' willis!? would be great, but, 100 mill subs? Perhaps if they expanded coverage to China....but no way that's happening here! That would be 1/3 of the total US population, perhaps a little less if you count multiple radios per person.....that's nuts.

[relmor2003]

Yes, Big Ben is big dumb for that one. I told him to always hold a core, but hes a risk taker. Thats why you get. You get left holding the bag(the other way). LOL
Sellers bagholder. I sold all my overcore from the .30s and .40s in the .50s. Been buying and selling it higher, chasing ever since. Regret it of course, but at least my core is pumping, so I have just regrets of potential profits lost. Still get my core holding increasing, and that is still way undervalued to be sold at these levels. If it does retrace, I will make out like a bandit, as I have banked some nice jumps in the mean time, some .60 to .63, .65 to .69, etc... But nothing takes the place of just having those shares, and selling them at the height. Problem longs, wheres the top?
Good luck.