SIRI Intraday Thursday 7-16-09

[sxminvestor]

I believe the NAB must be funding pandora and possibly slacker to try and harm SiriusXM. They are hitting them from every dam angle. I mean how do you survive and compete with basically no revenue - their ad revenue has got to be pathetic and Sirius has close to 3 billion revenue and is trying to figure how they can be a better product to these little gnats. This can't last too many more years before Sirius swallows them up.

[SiriMonkey]

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Board needs you Julie. You bring balance.

Why thank you Socal! Nice of you to say that.
How's California this evening? Let me guess, balmy, breezy
night, oh about 73 degrees. Palm trees swaying and stars in
the sky. And you can hear the waves from the ocean, gently breaking
on shore. Am I close?

Julie

[SiriMonkey]

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Julie. Maybe you should do "readings". lol. It is exactly 72. Palm trees are swaying. The sky is beautiful. I would love to hear the waves from the ocean but currently hear a helicopter at the campground for some reason. I would be willing to walk to the shore to see though. Good to see you Julie. How is the weather there?

Very nice actually. About 60. Cool and I can hear frogs croaking
and a cat howling. And the neighbors alarm went off. Ahhhh, summer in Michigan.

Julie

[JohnnyIrishXM]

if slacker/pandora etc did not exist . how would people get music on the iphone? (not including itunes) only through siriusxm app. that is why i consider them competition. even though we are late to the game, this market share belongs to us and now we need to attack the internet market the same way we did the terrestrial radio market. very aggressively.

im not that big on the rankings now. lets see in 1 year where sirius is ranked... but in fairness to irish/john/relmor DO WE KNOW FOR A FACT HOW THE RANKINGS ARE DETERMINED? if i delete the app does it drop in rankings? are the rankings based on total downloads, if so, then theoretically they can all be number 1 if the apps have 100% penetration rate.

sirius app can have 100% penetration rate but wont mean anything unless they convert to subs. that also makes the ranking debate useless.

to convert trial users to subs means we have to have a better app than slackdora. we already have better content, that is not debatable. maybe personalized stations, lyrics while the song is playing.

Good point Bassmaster,also what if Pandora or any app for that matter has a bug and gets corrupted,you know computers are like that,LOL,and you have to constantly re download it,does that count,or is it unique downloads per customer..

[JohnnyIrishXM]

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Tyler. Are you ready for a rant?

Ok all you chart geeks. Let's see where we stand on our techinical analysis.

Let's roll. In studying the PFL v the NFL we must determine if the NFL has been broken to the upside. However, the PFL could be joined in three places leaving us vunerable to a NFL. "Drink first beer, or do a shot". This of course does not account for the potential of the "HAST" or "HASB". Remember the key to the "Head and Shoulders" formation is that the "Neckline" MUST always be broken. Without a broken neck you have nothing. See Sadaam Hussein for further details. "Drink second beer here or second shot".

Next we have the "NFT" triangles. These valuable tools predict breakout patterns along with other key technicals. For you Geometric types, I suggest utilizing this tool with your due dillegence. Now of course Due Dilligence to the average investor, me, is simply paying my bills when they are due.............................."DT and DB" are considered potentially the most important indicators available. In this post we are recommending the Double D Top. As we feel the Double D bottom presents potential issues in the future. " third beer here or third shot"

For you "Flag and Pennant" types. Johnny Irish. We have the HST and HASTZ. All I can tell you here is that you can land a tight HST. Amen, brother. Can you spare me that fourth beer or shot. Some rely on the "PFG and the NFG". However they claim that an extra positive force gap can occur, so I'm saying NYET my comrads.

Positive and Negative Force Pivot Points have a history of successfully picking both tops and bottoms. If you missed the pivot point theory here, you must be missing a pulse as well. I myself am a huge pivot point fan. Time for that fifth beer or shot. PFTZ's and NFTZ's both indicate profit taking areas. And we all know what those profits can do for our mood. Time to close out that six pack and hit that six shot of your favorite liquor.

So in conclusion. I wish for all a "PFTZ". Positive force target zone. And may that force carry you to whatever heights you wish to achieve.

ROTFLMAO!!!! nice one SOCAL,,don't forget the almighty IPBW analysis.
I PREDICT BOTH WAYS speak,so never wrong!!!!!!

[john]

I also agree BUT if your run of the mill donut is a day old... people will pay for the fresh gourmet donut.

Sirius XM need to be Krispy cream and Pandora needs to be one of those donuts you buy at 7 eleven in cellophane.... back when Krispy Creme was like crack... people would have paid for that donut all day long.

Charles I can gaurantee you this, That in the general public that if you put a basket of day old crapass dounuts offered for free next to the fresh Krispy Creme that are a dollar a piece, that the ones that are free will be gone first and long before the "paid for" ones. I have seen it with my own eyes, so dont tell me any different. My guess for this is that there is no risk to picking up a free one and trying it.

[relmor2003]

Charles I can gaurantee you this, That in the general public that if you put a basket of day old crapass dounuts offered for free next to the fresh Krispy Creme that are a dollar a piece, that the ones that are free will be gone first and long before the "paid for" ones. I have seen it with my own eyes, so dont tell me any different. My guess for this is that there is no risk to picking up a free one and trying it.

100 percent agree. Very true. To further note, my girlfriend will no longer be using Pandora. They just stopped her about 2 weeks in on the monthly hour total. Wont give them a credit card number, she doesnt have one!!!! LOL(more of these than you think), and wouldnt pay $1 a month for it. So she now toggles back and forth from pandora to slacker. If slacker starts charging, and i guess they have too to?, then she will just listen to her play lists. So this wont help them grow. Just one example. She now talks about getting siriusxm finally. She says if she has to pay anything, might as well be fore something thats worth it. Direct quote.

[SiriusBuzz]

Charles I can gaurantee you this, That in the general public that if you put a basket of day old crapass dounuts offered for free next to the fresh Krispy Creme that are a dollar a piece, that the ones that are free will be gone first and long before the "paid for" ones. I have seen it with my own eyes, so dont tell me any different. My guess for this is that there is no risk to picking up a free one and trying it.

Listen, I am not going to argue with you. You are not going to be swayed but the proof is in the pudding. Plenty of paid services beat out free services every day online.

You are paying for satellite radio over terrestrial... why? You had the basket with the day old donuts and you chose to pay for Sirius XM. Please explain?

BTW you cant really guarantee anything, you just assume it to be true. I cant tell you how many times someone told me I was wrong about a user interface design only to have 10 random users use the product and prove me 100% correct. I could go out and downtown Boston and do this test right now and I am willing to bet that the premium donuts beat the day old donuts if the premium donuts are only $.50. I bet you could find some study online that will prove something like this.

Point... if none of my friends new what American Idol was and you showed them all the show for the first time, they would say that there is no way in hell that anyone watches that show... and they would be totally wrong.

Do more households with TV's pay for premium tv vs free over the airwaves? I honestly dont know but based on where I live and who I know, everyone has cable or satellite tv. Why? The basket of free donuts was sitting there and they choose to pay over $100 per month! $100 vs free and $100 won.

[john]

You just dont get it do you. Fact every service that beats SIRIXM in the Iphone app in the music catagory is a free service. The proof is in the pudding and the pudding is right in front of you and you still dont get it. You are a dimwit if you cant get this fact. You cant compare a free service that is competeing in the same catagory as a pay service. Your cable/satellite TV analogy is a false one. Imagine if all they had on cable was the same channels as regular TV, would people pay for basically the same thing, no. People are paying for a multitude of extra channels that just are not avalible on regular TV. A case in point The Stern, comic, and Playboy channels alone make the service for many a reason to pay for it (all of which have commercials by the way). Here is some logic even you should be able to get and that is that if SIRIXM only offered music there would be alot less (most likely a small fraction of) subscribers then they now have, hense the reason for all the other content.

As a side note it took cable much longer to become as popular as satellite radio is today. Taking the same time frames more people were watching free TV over cable. It really wasn't till the selection of channels became so great that it really started to get the masses.




The fact is I have seen this dounut theory played out already and a glazed dounut that is free even if it is a day and 2 (the 2nd day old was only the first day of the promotion after that they had no more 2 day old dounuts left) old gos faster then the same type of fresh gourmet dounut that you are going to charge even .50 cents (I would also like to see where in the hell you are going to find a gourmet dounut for .50 cents when a Krispy Creme for god sake, cost almost a buck) for if the comparison is carried forward the cost of these dounuts was only .89 and the free 1 and 2 day old ones were gone and the others never did become empty. There were plenty of them for the next day you jackass. Are you getting the point yet. Do you know what ended up happening to the day old ones after a few days (the promotion was cut short, I wonder why?) they started to go back to tossing the old ones in the trash again.




So in a closing slap in the face to wake you up what do you think would happen if the Iphone had a app service that allowed a service for TV, there is a free one that offers ABC, CBS, and NBC, then cable had one that offered the same three channels but you had to pay to get their service. I think we know which app would be more popular right. Do you get it yet, both Pandora and SIRIXM are competing in the same catagory with basically the same thing music.

[TSavery]

iTunes Scorecard

Pandora - #11

Sirius XM Internet Radio - #32

Slacker - Out of Top 100

Just when it looked like Sirius XM was bottoming out, they slipped down to #32. They need to step up the pressure somehow.