yes his kool aid couple weeks ago was the investigation of the cardealers and 90% penetration rate,predicted positive subs,but small or flat even..Originally Posted by relmor2003
yes expected more with long time extend outs,but your right knew that would affect Arpu going further but with auto's going neg for a while thank god it wasn't there..
homer, homer, homer, I dont know which is worse the trust issue or the being lazy. I mean coming from me those trates or ok, but you please.
I will bet Brandon says he was right. Not hard when you call it both ways. Remember he said something about 2 million subs lost. Of course this is just the first quarter (most likely the worst of them). I wonder what he will say next quarter if they only loss 200,000 or 300,000 subs.
Are you going to be mad if we don't give you crap about it?
1. That's not my thing... unless your name is john.
2. At least you backed up your position with something (even if it wasn't spot on).
Charles LaRocca
SiriusBuzz Founder
Hey Charles you are wrong again. What is there to pick on, he said he was wrong already, cant ask for more then that.
you know what's funny is he was quarter right on way to all right if this number holds up over 4quarters...1.6 mil loss of subs,but he wrote it for all the wrong reasons...bet your bottom dollar he'll see this post and write an article about how right he was...
Not to pick on the issue, but a few things, not specific to any particular person(s).
1. Extrapolating Q1 subs, or any metric over 4 quarters would be a huge error by any measuring stick. It simply does not work that way for subs, costs, revenue, etc.
2. He went from negative 2 million for the year to positive subs for the quarter. That is quite a range.
3. If you know the metrics, and formulate a desent model, you can come pretty close to where you need to be the first time around. If you shoot from the hip, you wind up shooting again and again.
4. A sound understanding of how each OEM partner is counted is imperative in trying to estimate subscribers.
5. Thinking that customer retention efforst"giving away" subscriptions will bring them to positive numbers is foolish as well. The company only has so much wiggle room or the other metrics such as ARPU skew too much.
6. If people buying new cars only become self paying 45% of the time, why would someone think that the used car market would perform any better?
7. If Q3 brought X number of OEM subs, and Q4 brought X number of OEM subs, how would one imagine that the penetration rate incresed so substantially in Q1? Common sense tells you that Sirius XM had to slow their own production to line up with the OEM production. A sudden increase in penetration simply was not in the cards.
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder
6. If people buying new cars only become self paying 45% of the time, why would someone think that the used car market would perform any better?
good point, but after the cost has been booked on the device its really foolish to continue to ignore the possible revenue line it opens up even if you only have a re activation rate of 10% on all the old devices. not just the oem side of it,its a pile of cash why continue to look the other way. or at least tell the investors honestly why nothing has really developed along this concept yet. and the standing reply from management. has been were thinking about it and talking with some company's, is just plain silly.after four years of hearing it.
Tyler i would love to see you do a extensive honest fair review of this very issue as you always do imho.
hell even using the Internet just to really explain the issue and car models by year, what service is available what devices no longer work or cant be supported and to walk the public through the entire process and sign them up. make it simple and easy. i just dont see a great cost in developing and leveraging this area online.but i feel its time management acts effectively on this important issue. they could even modle it where on the retail device side after every so many reactivations a certain amount would be available for free or at a reduced cost because the new sub was special and the company apperciates the new business this could be spun into something viral within cyber land.
if im wrong and or just crazy,please just tell me and many others why and what im missing.
Let's assume that an organized campaign would have a 30% take rate. Spiff payments would need to be made to hundreds, if not thousands of dealers. An accounting nightmare to say the least. They do have programs with carmax, and are rolling out "certified" used cars with several brands. These campaigns are easy to track and manage.
The highest value would come from a person simply signing up.
It is a function of dollars reivested into radios a second time.
Further, the revenue share on GM radios made them a burden. The rev share is assigned to the radio. Do you spend $50 on a spiff to a dealer that is going to get you a sub that takes a year to pay for itself?
I will adress this issue further, but I about to board a plane after long delays
Tyler Savery
Satellite Standard Founder
The used cars is not rocket science Tyler,but saying it's an accounting nightmare is unacceptable..They have automobile dealer associations for regions and national,you make the deal with those Assn. and not the weasel little corner guys..dealer gets 3 months of premiums and customer gets activated at the dealership for free 3 month trial..SiriusXM gets customer's info to help it convert to self paying..
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