SIRI Intraday Thread: Wednesday April 22

[Newman]

By the way, here is my strategy for the next couple of weeks:

I think Sirius is going to trade in a range for 1-2 weeks. This range will be up a few cents, down a few cents. I don't trade for a few cents, so I probably will not be doing any trading. Those with large portfolios would disagree with me here. Oh well. This range will slowly move up into the high 40s and bounce around between 45 and 49. 50 cents is nothing but a psychological barrier, and once it breaks 50, it will break out to 63 again and test that area. If it breaks 63, I really do not know where it will go because we really don't have any real resistance between 63 and $1, except maybe around 75-80ish. That said, remember I said that the stock trades in a semi-predictable pattern? I WILL NOT SELL ANY SHARES ON THE INITIAL SPIKE. The initial spike will take it into the mid-50s, then start trending down for a few minutes/hour or so. I don't buy the headfake reversal. It will spike again to around 63. I will sell about 50% of my PLAY SHARES (NONE of my core). If it continues to spike, it will hit around 75ish, then I can lock in the rest of my gains (again, this is with PLAY shares. I do NOT touch my core. My core is LONG and will not be traded at any point). It will retrace at that point, and I will be able to rebuy around the 55 mark.

Remember, DYODD, I am not a financial advisor, and all that crap. That is just my plan.

[Newman]

sweet! glad I bought Ford at 2 a few months back. wish i bought more, of course!

I had ford at 1.91 around the same time, sold when it spiked to 3.75, thinking that the deadline for GM/Chrystler would send one of them into BK, and eventhough ford wasn't in danger, it would trade with the sector.

Damn government had to step in and give them money anyways... bastards.

Tried to rebuy yesterday. Thought my order had been filled (I had like 8 trades yesterday that filled) and then today I find out that it didnt... Not a happy camper.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

hey does any1 know how to choose which shares to sell on ameritrade, i dont see that option anywhere.

[underway]

I had ford at 1.91 around the same time, sold when it spiked to 3.75, thinking that the deadline for GM/Chrystler would send one of them into BK, and eventhough ford wasn't in danger, it would trade with the sector.

Damn government had to step in and give them money anyways... bastards.

Tried to rebuy yesterday. Thought my order had been filled (I had like 8 trades yesterday that filled) and then today I find out that it didnt... Not a happy camper.

NEWMAN! I love sayin' that....old seinfeld fan and all that....

yeah, that sux. I just wish I had bought enough shares to really matter, but I didn't. Have a ton of siri shares though......LOL! SIRI CC and Q1 results plus guidance should give us the real upward move.

[relmor2003]

Newer traders should read Newmans post. He has a plan. You HAVE to have a plan. The plan can suck, but at least its a plan. If you have a plan, news neutral, you dont trade emotionally. Of course, a good plan is better than a bad plan. I would say Newman has a good plan. Well thought out, takes into account manipulation, has targets at reasonable levels, knows the power of the MM's, and has learned from the past to apply it to his trading of this stock. Hes not just jumping in and buying and looking to sell higher at any time in the day. A good plan should take into account all aspects and possibilities.

[Newman]

My portfolio has done amazing over the past 2 months, thanks in large part to SIRI, but there are some other winners in there. I rode BAC up from just under 5 to over 8, but sold out early. Ford, as mentioned above.

Here is the 90 day image from Scottrade of my performance....

[Newman]

SIRI CC and Q1 results plus guidance should give us the real upward move.

That is my only concern. CC must be held by May 15th (Friday). They typically announce results on a Tuesday (12th) or Thursday (14th). They put out the announcment about the CC usually the Thursday before (7th). This puts my 2 week time frame RIGHT AT the time they will announce the CC. I don't know if that will hinder or help the stock price. Then, I have absolutely no idea how earnings will be, so I don't know how the stock will react. If they have great earnings and minimal/no subscriber loss, the stock could skyrocket. If they have half-assed earnings and serious subscriber loss, we are all screwed short term. I just don't know what to expect out of Q1 (typically the worst quarter of all).

[bassmaster]

That is my only concern. CC must be held by May 15th (Friday). They typically announce results on a Tuesday (12th) or Thursday (14th). They put out the announcment about the CC usually the Thursday before (7th). This puts my 2 week time frame RIGHT AT the time they will announce the CC. I don't know if that will hinder or help the stock price. Then, I have absolutely no idea how earnings will be, so I don't know how the stock will react. If they have great earnings and minimal/no subscriber loss, the stock could skyrocket. If they have half-assed earnings and serious subscriber loss, we are all screwed short term. I just don't know what to expect out of Q1 (typically the worst quarter of all).

newman, thats what i keep saying. Q1 is a huge question mark, thats why all the value will be gained in Q2cc and Q3cc when auto recovery and iphone app are included in the assessments.

[bassmaster]

i keep making a big deal about the iphone app. i believe it is...slacker and pandora have over 1 mill downloads each.... iphone app will help reduce churn and bring in new customers. more importantly , it is a far better product than the other 2.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

so im guessing no one knows, its hard to hold a core if i cant choose which shares to sell.