You can't claim the loss till you sell the new shares. Since you can only claim 3k loss per year you may not want to claim all of them anywayOriginally Posted by winagain35
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
You can't claim the loss till you sell the new shares. Since you can only claim 3k loss per year you may not want to claim all of them anyway
So you think 95% of all current bank loans will be paid in full? Your optomistic too arent ya!!
Sounds like you should buy some bank debt then. I understand how writedowns work. They dont do them for "fun". They do them to save their butts later. They are projecting forward.
Forget the SiriusXM stock analogy. It would be like me saying my house is worth what I paid for it, in 2006, lets say 200k. Its current market price says it would sell for 100k. Thats a "paper loss" of 100k, Yes its not realized yet, sure. But your missing the point. The point is, your "debt" as a bank is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Right now thats around 0(no buyers, because they dont want to sell it more than they cant. It could be 60 cents, 80 cents, maybe. But you see, its not 100 or .95 cents. And most of their loans are currently valued there. Huge writedowns coming still, or they sell it and take the "real" loss.
Last edited by relmor2003; 03-26-2009 at 12:44 PM.
Yes this is correct Newman!And the bank must then set aside 2Bil in fresh cash available to lend to cover their liability on that loss(multiply by 1 Trillion and you have your bailout figure)......The bonds were traded like trading cards in a game of musical chairs and the music stopped and they were left holding what they couldn't sell...Aig got caught cover the insurance for these bonds or actually securities(credit default swaps) which incidentally is what caught Warren Buffet also...
One way to put it. But what about the million who stopped payments and returned the keys? Their loans aren't worth 500k or 300k but Zero, because there is no buyer for the home out there. But as soon the economy is back on track you are right, but what if not.
I can't see them now, but there were some very big orders at .39 and .41. Unfortunately, the mm's are letting anyone who wants to buy in below .40 to do so. They have us rangebound today at what started at 36-38 to 36-37. This tightening is just waiting to erupt.
Economics teaches us that anything (including stocks) is only worth what someone is willing to pay. In this case, .36 seems to be the going rate. Not sure it will move anywhere today. My guess at this point would be a .3750 close...the midpoint between the .36 and .39
Exactly choir girl. No ones really knows what the banks are worth right now. Not even the banks. If they had a crystal ball, then they would know. But to still value most loans at full value is ludicrious, and could cause another market crash if they start writing down billions again.
Brandon, I agree. We should close between .36 and .38 cents today. If we close over .39 its extremely bullish. Low volume once again, lets all pray for it.
Bonds are toast.
Thanks for the analysis.... and I'm thinking this sideways movement is a really good set up for tomorrow....
Although I'm hoping davis is on the money with the end of day being up a slight bit leading into AH...
No,the loans have stopped being traded,that is reason for toxic plan,they are mark to market at last trade,hence you see they want to change it for banks so they can account it as 500mil in loans is 500mil on books,so they don't have to capitalize their books with lendable cash,(our bailout money)...
