SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 3/09/09

[Wirestripper]

Yes, I would agree with you on that aspect.

As I have now changed perspectives and am no longer a suffering holder but a potential investor, I would consider the stock to be a buy on any pullback and a hold for the longer term...6-8 months as there is bad news likely for Q-1and possible Q-2 as well.

Problem for me is that I already have one of those type stocks in my portfolio now and I have a aggressive growth mindset right now.

That will change however and I will make that call when it happens. That depends on when the market achieves a reversal off it's lows suggesting the economy is preparing to mend in 6 months.

When that happens, I'm back in.....

That's my strategy for this goofy market at present.

A couple of things on cash flow:

They had $380 million at end of Q4.
They netted 65ish million from first part of financing with Malone. That brings us to $445 million-ish.
They do NOT have to pay MLB this year because they used the escrow funds to pay them for 2009 and 2010.

Now, cash flow AND subscribers will be negative for Q1 (my guess). The key metrics to watch here will be churn and EBITDA. They did not give guidance for subs or revenue (big disappointment), but increased their guidance for OVER $300 million ebitda positive for 2009.

This is HUGE. They know their subscriber numbers are going to suck. They know retail sucks. They know that the economy sucks, and yet the synergies from the merger will allow them to be EBITDA positive for the full year, even though on a quarterly basis they only hit it for the first time in Q4. This news is HUGE for long term.

[Newman]

SLH: Q1 subs will be bad (but we all knew that already, right?). The key to look at, as I said, will be EBITDA and Churn, and to a lesser extent cash burn. (yes, they will burn cash in Q1).

Q2 (which starts in only 18 more days) is supposed to have the iphone app coming out. Of course, "Q2" is a 3 month range, so when exactly we do not know. (Buy the rumor, sell the news... this qualifies as the rumor portion.)

Other than that... yeah, its all waiting! But this is Sirius... you should be used to that?

[john]

relmar, As for predicting 1st quarter loss of subs many felt that it was going to be bad. I guess because you are saying you and Brandon, then you think SIRIXM are going to lose over 500,000 subs this quarter (I say over 500,000 because I dont think even Brandon believes that 4th Q will be worse then 1st Q). Now while they Maybe bad I dont think we come anywhere near Brandons and your projection.

[mogami]

standard early morning sell off. I was hoping for an early morning buy attitude but you know the MM's will start at the bottom.

[SiriuslyGay]

sold @ .165

will look for re-entry around .15....

[relmor2003]

Either NITE hates their customers or they are manupulating the stock. Just threw a large block order in for no reason, was advancing. Could have gotten them more. Of course I dont believe that its an actual buy from a customer, or if it is id never use them again.
ISEG hates their customers too now.

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

Other than that... yeah, its all waiting! But this is Sirius... you should be used to that?

I am more than used to it lol, but if we KNOW that bad news is coming, I wonder if it's best to sell for now and rebuy after Q1 results are released?

If we somehow make it back to .175 or .18 I might consider selling off half my position.

[sxminvestor]

sold @ .165

will look for re-entry around .15....

Good plan, but you may be very disappointed and find yourself buying back at .20

[dave99]

NASDAQ 1 year estimate raised from .10 to .30.

NASDAQ Official Price
Open Price/Date
$ .16
Mar 11, 2009 Close Price/Date
$ .16
Mar 11, 2009
1y Target Est
$ .30

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

NLS
Time (ET) NLS
Price NLS
Share Volume
09:46:27 $ .1688 1,500
09:46:26 $ .1688 1,500
09:46:25 $ .1687 600
09:46:19 $ .1688 1,200
09:46:18 $ .1688 1,600


Things are looking up so far from what I can see! How's it looking on level II?