Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[Newman]

One thing I remember about growth, is from a movie called "Pure Country".

Grandma Ivey is sitting on her porch, talking to the drummer of the band, who is looking for the lead singer who went missing. Grandma Ivey tells the drummer "Sometimes a tree grows too fast for it's roots. Sometimes you need to cut off the top of the tree to let the roots catch up."

I think this might be what is happening to Sirius right now. Sirius and XM both had the growth at all costs mentality. Now, they are feeling the pinch. They need to take baby steps and let their roots (business model) catch up with thier growth (debt). I am not saying they need to STOP growing, just slow it down. Maybe that is the best thing this company can do to be a long term success right now.
(But I still want my iPhone app, DAMN IT!)

[cos1000]

relmor, none of what was discovered was an overly negative surprise.... except that they were CF positive and that they had 380M COH, after all of the BK fears and not being able to pay Feb 09, 172M debt.... that was all BS.... It was always as Mel said, a total restructuring plan by 3/1 of the 2009 debt, and MSM played it to the hilt.... What now you want something else..... come on let's all get real here.... this is going to take a little time but, BK pricing of the SP is no longer going to be available.....

[Paratrooper_Rick]

From this point on,,, REVENUE IS EVERYTHING.... They know they can control costs. We don't know if they can invest in developing new business lines.... I assume (yeah yeah, ass u and me... ha ha), they have been working on them, which should include the Internet, Cell Phone, and MP3 portable apps.... subscriber growth as related to OEM is not going to help them in New Cars. Sooooo they have to target the second chance, half of all radios installed in OEM's, deactivated market.... This is a NO Brainer. If you and I can think about it, we have to assume so aren't they....

Cos - LOL - You may have become my new favorite poster in here. Completely agree that it IS a no-brainer - question is - does the management actually have a brain between them - but I digress. I hereby promote you to the rank of colonel in the sirius army - refreshments and cigars will be served in the outer ballroom following General Karmazin's anouncements tomorrow....

[relmor2003]

sl62, Thanks for the words. You make sense as usual. I made a bad trade so far. By one penny. O no!! LOL If it takes off, Ill have bought before it clears .17 cents. I have a buy order in already. Not getting caught at a 40% position of Mels first real day of being a CEO because this stock scares me. I have been through hell and back with this pig, and my take on the quarter is accurate. Mel can do a lot to change 90% of my problems with the company with simple factual statements tomorrow. Well see if he does
I will gladly say goodbye to the teens if Mel dazzles us. But Im not holding my breath. Look for any pops that begin pulling back to be legit, for the reasons I discussed.

[relmor2003]

relmor, none of what was discovered was an overly negative surprise.... except that they were CF positive and that they had 380M COH, after all of the BK fears and not being able to pay Feb 09, 172M debt.... that was all BS.... It was always as Mel said, a total restructuring plan by 3/1 of the 2009 debt, and MSM played it to the hilt.... What now you want something else..... come on let's all get real here.... this is going to take a little time but, BK pricing of the SP is no longer going to be available.....

Ive never stated anything different. I agree its going to take time. Why I didnt want to get locked into the .13 to .16 cent bs one more time with a full position underwater. Rather sell my shares I bought low, hold my shares at .15 -.17 and see what happens. If I could have read the articles after the quarter report before I sold, I wouldnt have sold, as Ive always stated MSM reaction is very telling. Almost like they are now believers. Good sign.
I wanted nothing else. Its the media that I believe wanted more. And the common investors. And even people in here who should have known better. I thought there would be a huge negative reaction to missing the sub count(a fact, not a rumor or warning) and my guess to the reaction from the news was wrong. I used past treatment of Sirius to project a reaction of the quarter. I didnt mind the balance sheet end of it, just the growth aspect end.
If I suspected fair treatment(how could I have guessed such lunacy, lol) I probably still be sitting on a full position right now.
I guess my negative sentiment comes from the shock of the retail loss numbers, and the realization if it werent for forced exposure, this company has no interest. Mel can do a lot to change this problem tomorrow. But short term its going to be hard to generate new sub outlets, as no plans are in the works.
My other problems Ive stated a hundred times are old ones about the merger the bk scare bs, and Mels silent tongue. Thats all old news. And Ive never painted a cheery picture about this CEO or his plan, just the product.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

One thing I remember about growth, is from a movie called "Pure Country".

Grandma Ivey is sitting on her porch, talking to the drummer of the band, who is looking for the lead singer who went missing. Grandma Ivey tells the drummer "Sometimes a tree grows too fast for it's roots. Sometimes you need to cut off the top of the tree to let the roots catch up."

I think this might be what is happening to Sirius right now. Sirius and XM both had the growth at all costs mentality. Now, they are feeling the pinch. They need to take baby steps and let their roots (business model) catch up with thier growth (debt). I am not saying they need to STOP growing, just slow it down. Maybe that is the best thing this company can do to be a long term success right now.
(But I still want my iPhone app, DAMN IT!)

More common sense - glad to hear it so I don't feel like I'm talking to myself...

If you look at how SIRI as a whole evolved through this whole merger/BK ordeal - despite the overall market meltdown - you have to come away with a sense that they'll survive this thing more efficient than when they started - in other words - all these things coming together may actually have been the best thing that happened to SXM..... just my 2 cents.....

Any way you look at it - no way do we stay this low on SP for long.... and as for the whole discussion on R/S - I'm still not convinced it's inevitable...

[cos1000]

Cos - LOL - You may have become my new favorite poster in here. Completely agree that it IS a no-brainer - question is - does the management actually have a brain between them - but I digress. I hereby promote you to the rank of colonel in the sirius army - refreshments and cigars will be served in the outer ballroom following General Karmazin's anouncements tomorrow....

Before I sip and smoke the best of what you got..... I need fresh Filet of Nab for the Dog, once he's had his fill and been bedded down, then and only then, will I be able to partake in your ever so kind invitation.... hold off on the promotion though.... there certainly are better deserving here than me..... but thanks for the consideration....

Your Very Grateful Major...... awaiting orders sir....

[relmor2003]

Before I sip and smoke the best of what you got..... I need fresh Filet of Nab for the Dog, once he's had his fill and been bedded down, then and only then, will I be able to partake in your ever so kind invitation.... hold off on the promotion though.... there certainly are better deserving here than me..... but thanks for the consideration....

Your Very Grateful Major...... awaiting orders sir....

Dont let him short change you, cos. Your a general. Only reason Im still here today probably. Lets just say you have a minor point about my negativity, but it has layers, and its not overall negative, just short term and the long term problems are there, I felt fixable by a competent CEO. So now we get to finally see if hes competent. We know he can tank a stock, fake a bk, and broker terrible deals, we know that. Now lets see what else he can do.

[Paratrooper_Rick]

Before I sip and smoke the best of what you got..... I need fresh Filet of Nab for the Dog, once he's had his fill and been bedded down, then and only then, will I be able to partake in your ever so kind invitation.... hold off on the promotion though.... there certainly are better deserving here than me..... but thanks for the consideration....

Your Very Grateful Major...... awaiting orders sir....

Promotion deferrment will be processed by personnel office - as for the dog - we should have plenty of scrap pieces of minced NAB ribs and tenderloin soon enough in the mess hall -

As for the last part - I'm not a sir - in fact I work for a living - you guys do the thinking....

One item for consideration - will we be proceeding with demotion for PFC Matthews, Brandon or will we consider the last week's corrective training successful.... I have a few foxholes that need filling in.....

[Newman]

I think the demotion needs to be put on hold. Given the Q4 numbers, his numbers may not be too far from the truth. If the economy turns around at all in 2009, we will stay slightly positive. If it does not... God help us all.