Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[sl62]

PS: The only thing that scares me about tomorrows Conference Call is that they will have to lower guidance on subscriber numbers. Will they decrease guidance on anything else? I think the Sub number people can live with... if they drop their revenue guidance, the SP is toast.

Newman...

One of the positives I took away from Maffei's interview and a concept I believe will be a focus (and a help) of the subs issue is this:

>>MAFFEI: I think we’re committed to making Sirius XM work. One of the things worth noting is a lot of money has been invested already. The satellite is up and the service is up. One great thing about satellite is a ubiquitous platform already running. The main infrastructure is in place and we can add new subscribers relatively cheaply.<<

I view that as with Liberty now also in the mix, the game of attracting new subs has changed. And they will say that they believe that attracting subs from the Liberty holdings sub-base will help fill in the gaps. And I think the Street wil buy it. I certainly buy it and see it as a reality. IMHO...

[Newman]

I thought Maffei was an excellent speaker when I saw that interview on CNBC (?). Too bad he has not taken his position on the board of Sirius XM yet. I would love to hear some of his words next to Mel tomorrow.

[cos1000]

Thats fine. But Q1 will have no effect, and tick tock tick tock an any effect for Q2. Justifying why I shaved my position temporarily, as I am hitting on points Mel will be drilled on tomorrow, and what the MSM may use against them until they can break some news on new revenue. So baring any major new revenue announcements, we have a company that missed its quarter, will have a terrible Q1, and looking for an identity and a direction from Mel. Either Mel delivers now, or I will see .12 cents again on my rebuy. I was asked what would I do if the SP took off after the CC, based on substantial factual good news, I will gladly panic buy and watch my core position grow nicely, and enjoy my gains with everyone one else. Nothing would make me happier than being pissed it didnt hit .12 cents. I hope I panic buy at .20 cents(my core position will have seen nice gains) and I buy at .20 cents and it continues up to .30 cents. This is a day dream of mine daily, and I stopped investing on them. I have to use the past as a guide, and in the past Mel has not impressed on the CC. Now, I would argue he had reasons before, and he has none now. So if he tanks this call I will assume its because he simply refuses to communicate effectively to stockholders, and with a R/S looming, this stock might not get legs for quite a bit.

relmor, I have waited to post a response to your overwhelming negative take on the 10Q that just came out because I wasn't sure if you had read the whole thing or not. You have sold a position and are looking to buy back at a retrace based on this report. Last week when I said that filing an extension of their annual was viewed negative and would cause sp to go down.... you got all over me for posting a thread to discuss it and the possibility that without a done deal on financing........that BK was on the table.... You had NO Problem accusing ME of manipulating sentiment and trying to drive the price of the stock down so that I could buy back lower...... Now that You have sold some of YOUR position...... Your hearing negative talk about Q4 and bad numbers, NOW...... all things suck in the short term and they need to WOW YOU after you sold your position.... Sounds like a little turn around in your sentiment to me.... Its all Good.... this is a difficult stock to play.... and I wish you Bad Luck on this play my friend..... Your lose is going to be MY gain this week.......

[cos1000]

PS: The only thing that scares me about tomorrows Conference Call is that they will have to lower guidance on subscriber numbers. Will they decrease guidance on anything else? I think the Sub number people can live with... if they drop their revenue guidance, the SP is toast.

From this point on,,, REVENUE IS EVERYTHING.... They know they can control costs. We don't know if they can invest in developing new business lines.... I assume (yeah yeah, ass u and me... ha ha), they have been working on them, which should include the Internet, Cell Phone, and MP3 portable apps.... subscriber growth as related to OEM is not going to help them in New Cars. Sooooo they have to target the second chance, half of all radios installed in OEM's, deactivated market.... This is a NO Brainer. If you and I can think about it, we have to assume so aren't they....

[cos1000]

Rel...

Nothing wrong with your strategy. There are people here who don't get it that there is no crime against shifting or hedging a position. So you miss a penny or two or three..BFD!!! All of us who rode this pig down for 6 months, did so in good faith..day in, day out.

I will wait and see tommorow what happens in the CC for the rest of my hedge sale yesterday. But I was impressed with

S162, I like your strategy and explanation for trying to make a buck..... I think it is prudent to exercise ones hard work in evaluating the ups and downs of this pig.... make a buck or two if you can, and definitely don't let it cost you any more than has already been sacrificed.... no going back now... time to take advantage of what we know........ good luck ....

[killerkaul]

sl62............... great 6:14 post today. I suggest everyone read and heed all points made, and advice given. It comes from a great timeline of successful investing experience in the pursuit of the final reward in this enigmatic and elusive stock. Many of us survive............... due to his diligence and intelligence in these matters. Thank you. .... NO FEAR......... ...killer and the Dog.

[asm610]

Newman...

One of the positives I took away from Maffei's interview and a concept I believe will be a focus (and a help) of the subs issue is this:

>>MAFFEI: I think we’re committed to making Sirius XM work. One of the things worth noting is a lot of money has been invested already. The satellite is up and the service is up. One great thing about satellite is a ubiquitous platform already running. The main infrastructure is in place and we can add new subscribers relatively cheaply.<<

I view that as with Liberty now also in the mix, the game of attracting new subs has changed. And they will say that they believe that attracting subs from the Liberty holdings sub-base will help fill in the gaps. And I think the Street wil buy it. I certainly buy it and see it as a reality. IMHO...

sl62.
Definitely agree with you, I felt a strange sense of calm after the interview.

[Newman]

It is as if Maffei knows all of the potential revenue streams out there.

But unlike in the past, he will actually help to IMPLEMENT them.

I enjoyed the interview emensely myself sl and asm.

[asm610]

It is as if Maffei knows all of the potential revenue streams out there.

But unlike in the past, he will actually help to IMPLEMENT them.

I enjoyed the interview emensely myself sl and asm.

Let's hope it translates to growth !

[relmor2003]

relmor, I have waited to post a response to your overwhelming negative take on the 10Q that just came out because I wasn't sure if you had read the whole thing or not. You have sold a position and are looking to buy back at a retrace based on this report. Last week when I said that filing an extension of their annual was viewed negative and would cause sp to go down.... you got all over me for posting a thread to discuss it and the possibility that without a done deal on financing........that BK was on the table.... You had NO Problem accusing ME of manipulating sentiment and trying to drive the price of the stock down so that I could buy back lower...... Now that You have sold some of YOUR position...... Your hearing negative talk about Q4 and bad numbers, NOW...... all things suck in the short term and they need to WOW YOU after you sold your position.... Sounds like a little turn around in your sentiment to me.... Its all Good.... this is a difficult stock to play.... and I wish you Bad Luck on this play my friend..... Your lose is going to be MY gain this week.......

Not even remotely similar my friend. You were going on a warning from the filing that BK might occur if no refinancing of May debt, and I stated that warning was just that. A warning, and felt it ludicrous that would be the outcome of all the Malone deal, Ergen back and forth was BK anyway. I took a look at factual numbers given to us by the company, not a warning. In fact there are plenty of warnings in this filing if you noticed, none of which I touched on, and even went into length to discredit the warning on the R/S given in the 10K filing. As the warning is standard, and a good legal includement and appropriate placed on the Q4, as the stockholder meeting occured at that time. I based on decision to trim on missing share loss(.08 vs. .07, huge loss in retail subs in their strongest quarter, and failure to achieve synergies in somethign as simple as office work. Plus a marketing budget that declined. Doesnt sound like a company desperate to cut costs to me. Also they missed there sub guidance. This I felt was more than enough for the media to jump all over, but as of yet hasnt. I have stated I felt this was a good sign. Of of this second, I regret my selling, as the Price hasnt performed short term as I predicted it would. Yet. The CC has in the past not been a good day for the SP. Now, I felt Mel was strapped and against the barrel during that time frame, and he is not in this case, for the first time. But since he has never dazzled me in a CC, never revealed much to stockholders in the past, I Feel the media will use this again as weakenss, and be all over them, and the price will suffer short term, upon which I will reinvest, as there balance sheet did show progress. But guidance is still in the air, and I dont think the street is going to like it. Based on how many yahoos in here were thinking 19.5 million subs, eetc, and and excited about an Iphone app no where near the street(as of today nothing, which leads me to believe Mel wont necessarily be announcing it tomorrow. I didnt sell my entire position, as I didnt feel the report was entirely negative, just very troubling. With no new revenue streams announced yet, or ways off adding subs other than the already in play, I see declining subs for 09. The only thing SIrius ever had was the "growing still" tag. If they stop growing(and this could be conjectured from facts already released now) that was another factor in a short term price pullback. I will be happily surprised if Im wrong, because if Im right, the pullback will be deep, and long sustaining until new revenue plans are announced.
As I made a profit on the shares I sold, my core position will still be underwater, and the doubt on when to begin to invest repeats itself again, until some "magical" day that Mel decideds to show us the plan to profitabilty. Cause as of this second , he doesnt have one.