Glad to have you aboard, and best of luck to you! These are trying times even for patient men.Originally Posted by MLSiri
SIRIUS XM SATELLITE RADIO FORUM
Glad to have you aboard, and best of luck to you! These are trying times even for patient men.
I think we all need it. Hopefully we will still be in this good mood after the CC in the morning...
Maybe they'll drop the big bomb and tell us they renegotiated Howard's contract... there would give us a few hundred million more possibly......
I agree he is an important part of the equation - but I also think pulling that much pay when the company has financial issues is ridiculous....
Regardless.... fingers, eyes, and a few other things crossed for tomorrow...
I too hope the conference call is a good one Paratrooper. As to Howard...the contract looks much worse than it is. Not saying it isn't large....but realize he is responsible for 2 more channels of programming....and I believe all associated costs come directly from his deal. Plus..How can you not love Howard.....he's the best, and he brought alot of people into the service....no disputing that! As a matter of fact..they should look to him for some marketing opportunities!
sl62/Relmor, you're both beacons of sensibility in this vacuum of uncertainty. Whether this stock goes up or down, you guys have made sure we have a strategy to deal with either outcome. Thanks as always, and keep the wisdom flowing!
ML...
Hope you make a million dollars...
I keep looking at the 8K they filed and this keeps me smiling regardless of what some think.
SIRIUS XM ended the fourth quarter 2008 with 19,003,856 subscribers, up 10% from 17,348,622 subscribers at year end 2007. In the fourth quarter 2008, pro forma average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) grew to $10.60 from $10.42 in 2007. The monthly self-pay customer churn rate was 1.8% in the fourth quarter 2008, as compared with 1.7% in the fourth quarter 2007.
Even this doesn't get me down when I think about the economy, and the fact that it includes subs who left because of the programming change which might well have driven the churn higher for the quarter on its own
The monthly self-pay customer churn rate was 1.8% in the fourth quarter 2008
Let's hope tomorrow is a really great day for SIRIUSXM and we hear some exciting news......are you reading Mel?
Not arguing his value - to the company - I'm just saying -
What is 50 million less or even 100 million less going to do to Howard? seriously... he's already filthy rich....
Besides that - all he'd have to do is take a pay cut during the downturn... with an option to renegotiate when specific requirements/conditions are met....
Personally I don't like/dislike Howard - he is what he is....
ok, I have been silent for long enough:
I REALLY liked the earnings release yesterday. The Subscriber number scared the s$*t out of me though. It was Mel's first time to miss guidance since he came to Sirius.
But here are some FACTS: Sirius missed their subscriber numbers by 100k subscribers, yet BEAT their revenue numbers. (guidance of 2.4 billion, actually came in at 2.44 billion).
Churn edged up, but not nearly as high as I had expected. (Was looking for 1.9 and 2.9)
SAC was down (obviously as a result of weaker car sales).
ARPU was up (best of both affect? That covers for Life Time affect, which would have DROPPED ARPU).
And even with the minimal subscriber adds, they turned to adjusted EBITDA positive for the first time in history.
Make no mistake about it, Q1 subscriber adds will be horrid (I figure it will be negative), but the cost cutting and savings will indeed continue. I think the economy turns around much sooner than people are expecting (I have already stated that I think it has already bottomed and just maintaining right now). There are a lot of things that Sirius XM NEEDS to do right away. Now that they have refinancing behind them, maybe they will concentrate on doing them.
PS: The only thing that scares me about tomorrows Conference Call is that they will have to lower guidance on subscriber numbers. Will they decrease guidance on anything else? I think the Sub number people can live with... if they drop their revenue guidance, the SP is toast.
koop...a quick note, I'm a 62 not a 65 LOL.....
But to answer your question, to my knowledge preferred's are not required to nor do they automatically convert to common at the time of a RS. So the 12M Malone got of the preferred's, I think he would hang on to at least for a while. Him going to common would be pointless unless he was selling out and I don't see that happening anytime soon either.
I think the short's relationship to a reverse is the same with or without Liberty in the picture. It all depends on the health of the company at the time of the split (which is about the same equation anytime in the market). Don't forget, some (who are able) continue to short this equity even now a these levels. Shorts are sharks that try to profit from misery. If SIRI delivers on promises and guidance, there should be no reason for a reversed SP to be taken out back. IMHO..
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