Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[relmor2003]

The iPhone app driven subs could outpace OEM driven subs this year.......

What IPhone app? Exactly....
Only one we know about was denied. Until I see otherwise, they dont have one. They dont have any new revenue streams other than trying to get money upfront. And charging for internet access, which for all we know, as of right now has backfired on them. What about all the cancellations from the BK scare? Emotional traders who sold out, watched the stock rise back to .25 and not only threw their computers, cancelled all their services as well.
How can anyone assume positive subs for q1? What information are you going on? Let me state this again, there best retail quarter was a negative 300k subs. So if car sales and those car subs reupping is your "business model" for 09, and as of right now it is, then you would have to sell out looking for a lower price, until shown otherwise. They missed their quarter, and wrote down more XM charges(to my surprise the amount was much more than I even thought if they did writedown charges). Only surprises in the report were negative. We knew they were cutting costs to acquire new subs, because they didnt spend anything to get retail subs. Marketing dropped? WHAT!? Wrong direction for now.
I agree retail subs mean less if cars are humming across the dealers lot, and out the door. But this isnt the case. They can expect less than 800k in new car adds this year, over churn, which I say goes up again in Q1. Take that into account too.
Now have a trend of increasing churn, lower car sales, and spending less on advertising, while incurring more costs to run billing and customer service. Synergies of contracts are years away. So once again, if car sales improve in 2010, and sat synergies are realized, and the churn stays low, they will have a future.

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

Trust me, used OEMs are still considered OEMs and are included in the OEM sub numbers. Now dont make me get homer to tell you the same thing in a longer statement.

I'm sure you are correct about the OEM figures that SiriusXM releases.

I guess I was referring more to the analyses that you see posted here at SiriusBuzz, where they always start with "projected auto sales" to get their prediction for OEM subs. For THESE analyses, I'm not so sure they are accounting for the used car market. And so when the poster above is saying Sirius will lose 50k subs per month, I'm just wondering if he is missing something.

[mogami]

no I count used cars as retail. But then I don't mean cars off a lot I mean the one Jody has been driving my girl around in for a year. He decides he needs Sirius to listen to NASCAR because he is always parked someplace so he goes and buys a unit to install. (why not he is spending my money)

[Sirius_Long_Hauler]

Yea, I think we need to differentiate between:

a) Joe has a car, and decides to go buy a receiver and get satrad (retail)
b) Joe buys a used car that already has a receiver, and decides to subscribe (not retail)

Slight difference, but definitely should be treated differently, no?

[mogami]

Hi, I think it would take some homework. How many cars had Sirius installed and how many are still paying. Then you would know how many could be possible to get to reactivate. (minus the number that are no longer operational)

But to be honest. If I had a car that had Sirius installed and I was not going to pay for it I would rip it out and sell it at a garage sale.

[john]

Yea, I think we need to differentiate between:

a) Joe has a car, and decides to go buy a receiver and get satrad (retail)
b) Joe buys a used car that already has a receiver, and decides to subscribe (not retail)

Slight difference, but definitely should be treated differently, no?

Those are 2 different things one is retail and the other is a OEM. As said before that is one of the biggest reasons retail has fallen off (penitration going up) because you are less likely to go out and buy a radio if one already comes in your car. The car is the main reason for satellite radio. That is where most do their listening. So weather it is retail or OEM most are for the car and end up in the car.

[MLSiri]

Sirus XM needs to diversify its product line and not be so dependent on OEM - the subject of so much handwringing and negativity here and elsewhere.

With the partnership we now have with Liberty, Sirius XM will never be the same. I'm banking on a positive influence. New marketing approach has to/will be initiated, new and amazing revenue streams will be hardwired into our portfolios - if you're patient and give the new media monster a chance to emerge.

Examples: Free signals to existing satradios and terri stations will generate new subs for premium as well as new ad revenue, Internet and portable devises will allow on-demand replay from deep song libraries (al la DTV/Comcast), more used and rental car contracts will hook users, bundled services with DTV will soon arrive, GPS services will be available, international expansion will occur, more varied subscriber options and equipment will be available, etc., etc., etc.

Last year's merger and goodwill charges will be transformed into advertising dollars this year that will spark interest in the new SXM. Hell, I bet we'll even see a Sirius XM Super Bowl ad next year!

Just purchased two lifetime subs for me and the wife, and I have 40k SIRI shares. I'd say I'm somewhat vested in this company's future.

Go Sirius XM!

PS - Shields are up to deflect any crap if tomorrow's CC is a dud (not that anyone would even bother - LOL). Somehow, I believe this will not be necessary.

[asm610]

Sirus XM needs to diversify its product line and not be so dependent on OEM - the subject of so much handwringing and negativity here and elsewhere.

With the partnership we now have with Liberty, Sirius XM will never be the same. I'm banking on a positive influence. New marketing approach has to/will be initiated, new and amazing revenue streams will be hardwired into our portfolios - if you're patient and give the new media monster a chance to emerge.

Examples: Free signals to existing satradios and terri stations will generate new subs for premium as well as new ad revenue, Internet and portable devises will allow on-demand replay from deep song libraries (al la DTV/Comcast), more used and rental car contracts will hook users, bundled services with DTV will soon arrive, GPS services will be available, international expansion will occur, more varied subscriber options and equipment will be available, etc., etc., etc.

Last year's merger and goodwill charges will be transformed into advertising dollars this year that will spark interest in the new SXM. Hell, I bet we'll even see a Sirius XM Super Bowl ad next year!

Just purchased two lifetime subs for me and the wife, and I have 40k SIRI shares. I'd say I'm somewhat vested in this company's future.

Go Sirius XM!

PS - Shields are up to deflect any crap if tomorrow's CC is a dud (not that anyone would even bother - LOL). Somehow, I believe this will not be necessary.

Maybe they will listen to you....absolutely no one listened to me yesterday when i pretty much said the same thing!

[MLSiri]

I doubt it, ASM, but we're on the same page. I guess they'd rather debate past OEM stats and sub rates rather than dare to envision something beyond what they've already experienced...

I understand the desire to make a profit on the pops and buy on the dips, but that's part of what maybe keeping this stock shackled IMHO. This, and the MM's having a good time in our sandbox.


Very little volume the past hour or so. Looks like folks are holding out for their asks rather than weakening and going lower. Level II has almost 2 million shares stacked up on .16. Not many 100 share trades either. It's quiet.... too quiet LMAO

I can just feel the strain of the collective breath-holding awaiting the CC.

Keep the positive vibes and vision coming, ASM!

[SoCalJoe]

SoCalJoe, the only thing that jumps out at me is this above... here you mentioned the amounts of GROSS SUB ADDITIONS being 7.6M, then 8.0M, then 7.7M, then 3.6M... it appears you used the GROSS sub additions in the first 3 years' figures -- then for 2009 you used the GROSS additions, but you removed the promo subs that canceled from it. Your 295,750 monthly figure isn't actually a GROSS figure since it removes dropped promo subs. The previous years' figures you listed included those promo subs.

Using your figures, I come to GROSS ADDITIONS of 6.4M for 2009 (5.2M oem installs + 1.2M retail).

I'll point out that your figures also assume that there is no improvement in OEM sales from the current run rate... which is a conservative call, but could be warranted. Plus you also assume RETAIL sales of 1.2M -- which is a 25% drop from my estimate of what they did in 2008 (which was 1.6M)... again, a conservative call which may not be bad to consider. In both cases, the numbers are very rough and conservative. They could breakeven or have positive growth very easily too. We just don't know.



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Homer,
When you say Promo subs do you mean the free trial subscriptions with OEM's or other types of Promo Subs that I am not thinking about?