Originally Posted by mogami
That is Brandons job to just pull a number out of thin air. I will admit I was wrong on the amount of FCF for the forth quarter. The difference is I used prior numbers to go from. The problem is I did not believe that the cost from the merger would have been so much in the 4 th quarter. If not for the cost of the merger being as much as they were I would have been close. Still wrong is wrong and that is that.
Hi, I didn't just SWAG my numbers either. I am going with a lower churn and higher auto sales. I stuck with your retail
My reasons
1. Last qtr was ugly for reasons well known the entire economy shrunk but it is showing signs of recovery. retail in general is going up
2. The folks who could not afford to stay are gone.
3. People have more money this year compared to last. If you did not lose your job your paying less then 2.00 a gal for gas compared to 3 for much of last year. (that savings alone pays your sub)
Whenever I see these types of sub analysis, I always only see OEM and retail. Are you guys accounting for the used car market? Or does the OEM number include it already (doubtful)?
I keep pounding on people that they are double counting OEM churn when they apply the take rate and then the churn rate to the gross subs as well. At least you, John, Homer and a few other people get it.
9.1 SAAR was forecasted based on sales throuh Feb which showed a slight increase in sales from Jan (this is to be expected). Sales will grow March thru August before declining again going into Q4 so there's good reason to believe that the full year SAAR will be slightly higher than the 9.1 mil shown in Feb (maybe in the 10+ million range). This is without significant recovery in the auto market, just based on historical annual trends. We will know more on or around April 3 which is when the March sales figures should be released. If the numbers show support for the levels indicated by the Jan & Feb and following historical trends then we have good reason to believe that the SAAR will not fall below 9.1 million, and actually will be slightly higher. 2009 Sirius XM growth will be flat (maybe up or down a few thousand) with only 9.1 million SAAR - any higher auto sales will make for some growth in subs for the year.
SLH, we don't have any accounting for used car sales (at least none that I have seen) so we don't know how exactly Sirius counts them. My guess is that they would be lumped in with retail sales. I do agree that it's a huge potential growth market to go after though.
It is included in the OEM # because they will still have to pay the OEM a share of revenue ether way. They are still considered OEMs reguardless of them being used or not.
Last edited by john; 03-11-2009 at 01:25 PM.
I'm hearing retail from one person and OEM from another.
Seeing as how the analysis starts with the projection for new autosales and works down from there, I don't think used cars are being included in the OEM numbers (at least not in the one posted above). Retail seems a little more likely to me?
People need to drive no matter how bad the economy is, and if they aren't buying new cars, they sure as heck must be buying used.
SIRI or XMSR has never given what the percentage is between new and used OEMs.
I said that mine was just a guess. Sounds like John knows the real scoop.
Trust me, used OEMs are still considered OEMs and are included in the OEM sub numbers. Now dont make me get homer to tell you the same thing in a longer statement.
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