Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[mogami]

I sold 33% (my .11's and .12's) because mommy wants money NOW!!!

[relmor2003]

I sold 33% (my .11's and .12's) because mommy wants money NOW!!!

Mommy is smart, .
Not to beat a dead horse, or discourage longs, in fact if your a bagholder(average over $1 still), no point selling now, I might shave some here though.
Sorry, but I treat this stock like any other in my portfolio. If I feel any of my stocks are going to go down, Im going to shave and rebuy. I wont take a 2 cent profit necessarily, but Im not going to hold this pig as it test .13 cents again thats for sure either.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

i think its dumb to sell now when the it could pop even higher at any second, oh well gl to ya

[mogami]

I think it is bad to sell now at a loss. I didn't sell any shares at a loss today.
If it does pop I have twice as many shares left.
If it goes the other direction I will rebuy a larger number then I sold

[relmor2003]

i think its dumb to sell now when the it could pop even higher at any second, oh well gl to ya

That method of thinking made me hold a half position from .84 cents to .36 cents. The numbers dont lie. Demand is shrinking for the product in its current form. Mel has the tools to change this, just dont know if he knows how. Yet to be proven he can grow a technology company outside of the model handed to him. His growth rates are declining. If retail sales go positive again, I might rethink that, or if Mel announces new revenue streams. But from the info I have today, I am not impressed with their chances of hitting 20 million subs in 09.
O I agree Mogami, I didnt sell at a loss either. Shares I had bought at .07 cents, and .11 cents sold today. I am holding shares still purchased at .16 and .15 cents from a while ago left.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

yeah siri isnt .84 cents its .15 big diff

[mogami]

Oh I think they will hit 20 million in 2009. Car sales are going to be better in 2009 then 2008. A little retail boost when they actually stock the product.
There will never be another qtr like 4th qtr 2008 for any company in USA. That was the absolute bottom.

[relmor2003]

Oh I think they will hit 20 million in 2009. Car sales are going to be better in 2009 then 2008. A little retail boost when they actually stock the product.
There will never be another qtr like 4th qtr 2008 for any company in USA. That was the absolute bottom.

I dont see car sales improving in 09. No way. Unless they start giving them away. Car makers cant control their costs. The model is dead. GM has never made "real profits". They remind me more of the airline industry. They need PERFECT conditions to even scratch a profit. When I say car model, im talking about US car market. They made cars bigger, stronger, and more expensive, when they should have been making cars, more efficient, and cheaper. Bringing back the Camaro? Why? So the 20 year old that makes $8 an hour at Burger World can afford one? No. The middle aged man who used to love Camaros? No, hes broke, and wondering where his retirement went, or looking for a new job. Hes looking to buy a car that gets 50 mpg, not a Camaro. That proves they have no clue in that industry either. Toyota had it right, but got caught up in competing in the SUV and truck markets, which are the only reason they are hurting as well. I think 09 car sales will be much worse than 08.
Listen Ive had huge problems wtih Brandons coverage of this stock in the past, but hes right this time, as much as it pains me to believe. If Mel doesnt do something drastic in the next 2 quarters, they had better make the synergies work, and improve their balance sheet, because there going to be up against ever decreasing sub growth rates, and decreased revenue(owners of 2 subs will cancel one, or ones who had both will cancel one or the other). Remember, Q1 will reflect all the cancellations that occured due to the BK mess that Mel intentionally drove us to. Not to mention its a weak growth quarter anyway, add in terrible car sales....
Q1 should show a negative sub rate at that time. Maybe even. MAYBE A MINOR INCREASE. Maybe. Real companies dont use the economy as an excuse. It is what it is. Deal with it. Charging people for internet access, or threatening them to keep it for free if they poney up long term money was a bad move, in this economy. No commercials for the product have aired since the merger. Not one. They dont promote their talent. Im 100 percent sure Mel just sits back and banks on the car sales. Their retail solution was to release better more expensive radios? Hmmmm..... I dont think so. Best of Both? Probably cost them money. Radio that can get both signals? Good for the future. Liberty will make sure they stay afloat till they can enact long term goals. Not saying my overall outlook is bad, just for the next few months.
One merger aspect that failed. Billing and customer service costs MORE THAN DOUBLED. No synergies. Bad management from this angle at least.

[mogami]

If Ford, GM and Crysler sell 0 cars this year it will not matter to Sirius because people will buy Honda, Toyota etc and Sirius has deals with them.
Make does not matter only the numbers matter and if 2008 was a down year 2009 will be better.
Dispite all the crying 92 out of 100 americans are still working. Unemployment was at this level with Clinton and George the first.
Actually the govt is working on the wrong things. All they have to do is fix the banks. The rest is BS.
People will eventually figure this out on their own. I went to the mall this weekend and every store was packed, the parking lots were full and there were no closed up empty stores.

[john]

In reviewing the 10Q I did my own calculations of subscriber growth for 2009 and I don't like the figures that I am getting. I am fairly new to the metrics of Sirius subscriptions and I want to make sure my numbers look right. I get (the assumed figures are in italics)

2009
750,000 Monthly Autosales (based on 9M Yearly projected)
58% OEM Penetration Rate (Assumed)
435,000 Monthly Autosales with OEM
45% OEM Conversion Rate (Assumed)
195,750 Gross Monthly OEM Additions
100,000 Gross Monthly Retails Additions (based on 1.2M Yearly)
295,750 Gross Monthly Sub Additions

19,003,856 Subscriber Base (as of 12/31/08)
295,750 Gross Monthly Sub Additions
19,299,606 Total Subscriptions prior to churn
1.8% Monthly Churn % (Assumed)
347,393 Monthly Churn Subs cancelled
18,952,213 Total Subscriptions after churn
(51,643) Monthly Net Subs Added (Lost)

From my review it looks like a net loss of about 50K subscribers a month in 2009 with the assumed figures above.

It appears that the issues are twofold. One is that the amount of gross sub additions (OEM + Retail) will decrease this year due to less retails and less auto's being sold (7.6M in 2006, 8.0M in 2007, 7.7M in 2008, 3.6M [295,750 X 12] projected for 2009)

The bigger issue seems that as the subscriber base grows the amount of cancelled subscriptions via churn grows. In short Sirius must start getting MORE gross additions to offset the higher amount of cancellations due a stable churn rate (1.7% to 1.8%) but for a higher subscription base. But instead it looks like due to decreased retail sales and especially decreased autosales the amount of gross additions is decreasing.

Please tell me I am wrong in my numbers as, honestly, I would like to be.

Now that is what Brandon should have said, that is possible. While I think it is not including all the promo subs, I think it is much more realistic. At the very least you did not forget about gross retail altogether.