Sirius just surprise reported 4Q - 10Q

[choirgirl]

I sold some too after reading the report, but like most of you would love to get back at a lower price.
Because at least the immediate future depends on car sales, I can tell you, after reading German newspapers, a deal between the German goverment and GM about Opel is in the making, it's looking much better then yesterday.
The major problem is the independence of Opel and the return of their patents by the treasury . The unions have already agreed to a major paycut.
I think this is going to work and will have great benefit for GM too.
I hope you all find this interesting.

That was the only thing I saw in the report that made me sell 40% of my position at .15 cents. If I was wrong, then I made a quick reaction based on facts, for once, not theory. I dont like the negative retail subs. Basically without the declining auto industry, they would have lost a lot of subs. Only additions came from car sales. Not good. They need the cell phone apps immediately, and the expansion of services. They need to renegotiate contracts. They need to stop writing down losses from the XM merger. Retail sub loss was a lot of double subs, going for Best of. If I had both, and its onlyh because of things best of offered, if you order best of as a SIrius sub, the amount on the bill of that person drops, and you lose 1 sub. You still have 1 customer, but you lost 1 sub. You gained 6.99, but lost 1 sub. NO one walking into a retail store is buying this product. THis is terrible news. They need a new marketing direction, and new ways to access the service. Until I see these things, I dont see a huge rally coming. I will buy back when this stock hits .12 cents again. It will be there sometime before the CC. CC might actually make it drop again. Guidance will be key.

[SIRI4LIFE]

Is it just me or wasn't siri doing just fine financially without xm? So now that we stole there 10mil sub (at a huge cost)
does everyone think we still need to add subscribers at some rediculous pace.
Once ALL synergies are completly worked out this company will make money hand over fist without adding 1 more sub!!!!!!!!!!

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

Im thrilled with the earnings report, absolutely thrilled, brandon and charles are never happy, probably because they have been riding this stock for way too long.

[homer985]

Looking at the numbers some of them look pretty much in-line to my expectations... while others are very much improved and others not so good. I am comparing the PRO FORMA numbers for Q4 and Full Year. These are the most accurate in painting the picture I want...


PRO FORMA, Q4 Year over Year
REVENUE improves to $644 million from $557 million... (increase of 15.6%)
OPERATING EXPENSES improves to $689 million from $909 million... (decrease of 25%)
OPERATING LOSS improves to ($45 million) from ($352 million)... (decrease of 88%)
NET LOSS improves to ($248 million) from ($405 million)... (decrease of 39%)
FCF improves to $25.8 million from $5.4 million... (increase of 377%)
ADJUSTED OPERATING LOSS (ADJ EBITDA) improves to $31.8 million from ($224 million)


PRO FORMA FULL YEAR, 2008 vs 2007
REVENUE improves to $2.4 billion from $2.0 billion... (increase of 20%)
OPERATING EXPENSES improves to $2.9 billion from $3.0 billion... (decrease of 4%)
OPERATING LOSS improves to ($516 million) from ($1.0 billion)... (decrease of 49%)
NET LOSS improves to ($902 million) from ($1.2 billion)... (decrease of 25%)
FCF decreased to ($551 million) from ($504 million)... (decrease of 9%)
ADJUSTED OPERATING LOSS (ADJ EBITDA) improves to ($136 million) from ($565 million)... (decrease of 76%)

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The 25% decrease in Q4 Operating expenses is very noteworthy -- presuming that continues here in 2009, we'll begin to notice these improvements in their numbers soon. While the drop didn't carry over for all of 2008 -- there were still a lot of charges in 2008 -- from contract buyouts that cost a lot of money. This drop needs to continue.

The Operating Loss improvement for Q4 (88%) and Full Year (49%) is also eye catching. I'll be watching these two estimates this year to see if it continues.

The Net Loss improvement is a given -- because of the improvement in Operating expenses and Loss.

While the full year didn't have any improvement in FCF, there was improvement in Q4... again, this is more of a result of all the earlier merger expenses and contract buyouts, undoubtedly. I look to see if this improves in 2009... or at least Operating CF, since their CAPEX will be artificially high in 2009 -- that won't be a fair comparison.

Finally, the improvement in Adj Operating Loss (Adj EBITDA)... is the last metric that I will continue to monitor. The Q4 improvement was very nice to see... from a big negative figure to a positive; what more can you say?

It was also nice to see churn remain relative stable -- given the economic turmoil of 2008. The drop in conversion rate is troublesome and will need to be watched. All in churn looks to come out to 2.77% for the year... a bit on the higher side than I expected.


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[trippingthespeculatingpos]

Is it just me or wasn't siri doing just fine financially without xm? So now that we stole there 10mil sub (at a huge cost)
does everyone think we still need to add subscribers at some rediculous pace.
Once ALL synergies are completly worked out this company will make money hand over fist without adding 1 more sub!!!!!!!!!!

yeah i agree, i think they are focusing less on massive sub growth and are trying to trim costs and focus on making this business model succesful, they will continue to grow subs, no need to waste that much money on advertising when we are a monopoly. Once we become cash rich we can start doing huge ad campaigns.

[john]

Brandon, what the hell are you talking about because by your own calulations you had NO RETAIL ADDS AT ALL, ***GROSS*** OR NET PERIOD. So what, before you said that 2008 meant nothing to your conclusions of 2009. Then you dry to use 4th quarter/year end as a basis. So ok, lets , They lost 333,000 net retail which means that a 1.8% monthly churn on 9 million subs is 162,000 each month lost to churn multiply that by 12 and you get 1,944,000 lost to churn so to only lose 333,000 that means they must have added 1,611,000 in GROSS subscibers that is by far not "NEGLIGIBLE".



Brandon, your an idiot, and if you keep trying to say you were correct on a retarded mistake you made, then I will keep calling you on it and call you a retard.


P.S. homer, I guess 25 million is nowhere near what I had thought was correct. I was wrong and you were more correct.

[SIRI4LIFE]

I'm with you tripp! I will not sell this pig for anything. Why ply pop and drop over 2-3 cents.I know I could poss improve position but def not worth the risk. To much manipulation no way to predict which way this will go. RIDE THE WAVE !!!!!!

[homer985]

Homer whats an FD

Reg FD... Regulation Fair Disclosure...

If material, non-public information is purposely or inadvertantly given to a "market professional" or stockholder... the company has 24 hours to share that information publically with all stockholders.

http://library.findlaw.com/2000/Dec/1/126698.html



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[trippingthespeculatingpos]

i think people started reading the risks section of the 10k and they freaked out haha

[SIRI4LIFE]

So no laws broken.