Glad to have you aboard, and best of luck to you! These are trying times even for patient men.Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSiri
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Glad to have you aboard, and best of luck to you! These are trying times even for patient men.Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSiri
I think we all need it. Hopefully we will still be in this good mood after the CC in the morning...Quote:
Originally Posted by asm610
Maybe they'll drop the big bomb and tell us they renegotiated Howard's contract... there would give us a few hundred million more possibly......
I agree he is an important part of the equation - but I also think pulling that much pay when the company has financial issues is ridiculous....
Regardless.... fingers, eyes, and a few other things crossed for tomorrow...
I too hope the conference call is a good one Paratrooper. As to Howard...the contract looks much worse than it is. Not saying it isn't large....but realize he is responsible for 2 more channels of programming....and I believe all associated costs come directly from his deal. Plus..How can you not love Howard.....he's the best, and he brought alot of people into the service....no disputing that! As a matter of fact..they should look to him for some marketing opportunities!Quote:
Originally Posted by Paratrooper_Rick
sl62/Relmor, you're both beacons of sensibility in this vacuum of uncertainty. Whether this stock goes up or down, you guys have made sure we have a strategy to deal with either outcome. Thanks as always, and keep the wisdom flowing!
ML...Quote:
Originally Posted by MLSiri
Hope you make a million dollars...
I keep looking at the 8K they filed and this keeps me smiling regardless of what some think.
SIRIUS XM ended the fourth quarter 2008 with 19,003,856 subscribers, up 10% from 17,348,622 subscribers at year end 2007. In the fourth quarter 2008, pro forma average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) grew to $10.60 from $10.42 in 2007. The monthly self-pay customer churn rate was 1.8% in the fourth quarter 2008, as compared with 1.7% in the fourth quarter 2007.
Even this doesn't get me down when I think about the economy, and the fact that it includes subs who left because of the programming change which might well have driven the churn higher for the quarter on its own
The monthly self-pay customer churn rate was 1.8% in the fourth quarter 2008
Let's hope tomorrow is a really great day for SIRIUSXM and we hear some exciting news......are you reading Mel?
Not arguing his value - to the company - I'm just saying -Quote:
Originally Posted by asm610
What is 50 million less or even 100 million less going to do to Howard? seriously... he's already filthy rich....
Besides that - all he'd have to do is take a pay cut during the downturn... with an option to renegotiate when specific requirements/conditions are met....
Personally I don't like/dislike Howard - he is what he is....
ok, I have been silent for long enough:
I REALLY liked the earnings release yesterday. The Subscriber number scared the s$*t out of me though. It was Mel's first time to miss guidance since he came to Sirius.
But here are some FACTS: Sirius missed their subscriber numbers by 100k subscribers, yet BEAT their revenue numbers. (guidance of 2.4 billion, actually came in at 2.44 billion).
Churn edged up, but not nearly as high as I had expected. (Was looking for 1.9 and 2.9)
SAC was down (obviously as a result of weaker car sales).
ARPU was up (best of both affect? That covers for Life Time affect, which would have DROPPED ARPU).
And even with the minimal subscriber adds, they turned to adjusted EBITDA positive for the first time in history.
Make no mistake about it, Q1 subscriber adds will be horrid (I figure it will be negative), but the cost cutting and savings will indeed continue. I think the economy turns around much sooner than people are expecting (I have already stated that I think it has already bottomed and just maintaining right now). There are a lot of things that Sirius XM NEEDS to do right away. Now that they have refinancing behind them, maybe they will concentrate on doing them.
PS: The only thing that scares me about tomorrows Conference Call is that they will have to lower guidance on subscriber numbers. Will they decrease guidance on anything else? I think the Sub number people can live with... if they drop their revenue guidance, the SP is toast.
koop...a quick note, I'm a 62 not a 65 LOL.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Koop
But to answer your question, to my knowledge preferred's are not required to nor do they automatically convert to common at the time of a RS. So the 12M Malone got of the preferred's, I think he would hang on to at least for a while. Him going to common would be pointless unless he was selling out and I don't see that happening anytime soon either.
I think the short's relationship to a reverse is the same with or without Liberty in the picture. It all depends on the health of the company at the time of the split (which is about the same equation anytime in the market). Don't forget, some (who are able) continue to short this equity even now a these levels. Shorts are sharks that try to profit from misery. If SIRI delivers on promises and guidance, there should be no reason for a reversed SP to be taken out back. IMHO..
Newman...Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
One of the positives I took away from Maffei's interview and a concept I believe will be a focus (and a help) of the subs issue is this:
>>MAFFEI: I think we’re committed to making Sirius XM work. One of the things worth noting is a lot of money has been invested already. The satellite is up and the service is up. One great thing about satellite is a ubiquitous platform already running. The main infrastructure is in place and we can add new subscribers relatively cheaply.<<
I view that as with Liberty now also in the mix, the game of attracting new subs has changed. And they will say that they believe that attracting subs from the Liberty holdings sub-base will help fill in the gaps. And I think the Street wil buy it. I certainly buy it and see it as a reality. IMHO...
I thought Maffei was an excellent speaker when I saw that interview on CNBC (?). Too bad he has not taken his position on the board of Sirius XM yet. I would love to hear some of his words next to Mel tomorrow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by relmor2003
relmor, I have waited to post a response to your overwhelming negative take on the 10Q that just came out because I wasn't sure if you had read the whole thing or not. You have sold a position and are looking to buy back at a retrace based on this report. Last week when I said that filing an extension of their annual was viewed negative and would cause sp to go down.... you got all over me for posting a thread to discuss it and the possibility that without a done deal on financing........that BK was on the table.... You had NO Problem accusing ME of manipulating sentiment and trying to drive the price of the stock down so that I could buy back lower...... Now that You have sold some of YOUR position...... Your hearing negative talk about Q4 and bad numbers, NOW...... all things suck in the short term and they need to WOW YOU after you sold your position.... Sounds like a little turn around in your sentiment to me.... Its all Good.... this is a difficult stock to play.... and I wish you Bad Luck on this play my friend..... Your lose is going to be MY gain this week.......
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
From this point on,,, REVENUE IS EVERYTHING.... They know they can control costs. We don't know if they can invest in developing new business lines.... I assume (yeah yeah, ass u and me... ha ha), they have been working on them, which should include the Internet, Cell Phone, and MP3 portable apps.... subscriber growth as related to OEM is not going to help them in New Cars. Sooooo they have to target the second chance, half of all radios installed in OEM's, deactivated market.... This is a NO Brainer. If you and I can think about it, we have to assume so aren't they....
S162, I like your strategy and explanation for trying to make a buck..... I think it is prudent to exercise ones hard work in evaluating the ups and downs of this pig.... make a buck or two if you can, and definitely don't let it cost you any more than has already been sacrificed.... no going back now... time to take advantage of what we know........ good luck ....Quote:
Originally Posted by sl62
sl62............... great 6:14 post today. I suggest everyone read and heed all points made, and advice given. It comes from a great timeline of successful investing experience in the pursuit of the final reward in this enigmatic and elusive stock. Many of us survive............... due to his diligence and intelligence in these matters. Thank you. .... NO FEAR......... ...killer and the Dog.
sl62.Quote:
Originally Posted by sl62
Definitely agree with you, I felt a strange sense of calm after the interview.
It is as if Maffei knows all of the potential revenue streams out there.
But unlike in the past, he will actually help to IMPLEMENT them.
I enjoyed the interview emensely myself sl and asm.
Let's hope it translates to growth !Quote:
Originally Posted by Newman
Not even remotely similar my friend. You were going on a warning from the filing that BK might occur if no refinancing of May debt, and I stated that warning was just that. A warning, and felt it ludicrous that would be the outcome of all the Malone deal, Ergen back and forth was BK anyway. I took a look at factual numbers given to us by the company, not a warning. In fact there are plenty of warnings in this filing if you noticed, none of which I touched on, and even went into length to discredit the warning on the R/S given in the 10K filing. As the warning is standard, and a good legal includement and appropriate placed on the Q4, as the stockholder meeting occured at that time. I based on decision to trim on missing share loss(.08 vs. .07, huge loss in retail subs in their strongest quarter, and failure to achieve synergies in somethign as simple as office work. Plus a marketing budget that declined. Doesnt sound like a company desperate to cut costs to me. Also they missed there sub guidance. This I felt was more than enough for the media to jump all over, but as of yet hasnt. I have stated I felt this was a good sign. Of of this second, I regret my selling, as the Price hasnt performed short term as I predicted it would. Yet. The CC has in the past not been a good day for the SP. Now, I felt Mel was strapped and against the barrel during that time frame, and he is not in this case, for the first time. But since he has never dazzled me in a CC, never revealed much to stockholders in the past, I Feel the media will use this again as weakenss, and be all over them, and the price will suffer short term, upon which I will reinvest, as there balance sheet did show progress. But guidance is still in the air, and I dont think the street is going to like it. Based on how many yahoos in here were thinking 19.5 million subs, eetc, and and excited about an Iphone app no where near the street(as of today nothing, which leads me to believe Mel wont necessarily be announcing it tomorrow. I didnt sell my entire position, as I didnt feel the report was entirely negative, just very troubling. With no new revenue streams announced yet, or ways off adding subs other than the already in play, I see declining subs for 09. The only thing SIrius ever had was the "growing still" tag. If they stop growing(and this could be conjectured from facts already released now) that was another factor in a short term price pullback. I will be happily surprised if Im wrong, because if Im right, the pullback will be deep, and long sustaining until new revenue plans are announced.Quote:
Originally Posted by cos1000
As I made a profit on the shares I sold, my core position will still be underwater, and the doubt on when to begin to invest repeats itself again, until some "magical" day that Mel decideds to show us the plan to profitabilty. Cause as of this second , he doesnt have one.