Sirius XM December 2015 Thread - Make Money, Have Fun!

[user34615145]

Brandon - It is actually nice to see long term opportunity out there right now. The market has consolidated over the last year and is basically even, creating this opportunity in media and the indexes. Over the next decade I see an easy double or triple in Comcast, Sirius, Disney, Charter and the the S&P 500 index (VOO). That covers the major growth players in Content and Distribution plus diversification with the index.

Spencer, while we are of the same mind regarding long term growth prospects, and I agree that consolidation has created an opportunity, "easy" is not a term I would necessarily use for a double or triple. If history has taught us anything, it's that we will see at least one, probably two, and as many as three major market consolidations over the next ten years. Like you said in one of your previous posts, "buy and hold forever" doesn't work as well anymore - even more so now that we are not as young as we once were and we have significantly more money at stake.

[midas360]

You both are on the same page. Keep up the great job investing, trading, masturbating,etc..

[MUSCLE13]

Spencer, while we are of the same mind regarding long term growth prospects, and I agree that consolidation has created an opportunity, "easy" is not a term I would necessarily use for a double or triple. If history has taught us anything, it's that we will see at least one, probably two, and as many as three major market consolidations over the next ten years. Like you said in one of your previous posts, "buy and hold forever" doesn't work as well anymore - even more so now that we are not as young as we once were and we have significantly more money at stake.

Brandon - I am most certainly not Spencer. I argued with him for years that Sirius would maintain a 20% EBITDA growth rate. He disagreed. I was right, he was wrong. He also loved steaming music Internet companies like Pandora and Slacker. I obviously disagreed. Now he follows speculative drug companies. I have no interest in that.

Of course there will be a couple corrections over the next decade just like there was one this past summer. That's why I am prepared with cash to buy more Sirius or Comcast on a correction. 7.5% average annual return over 10 years gives you a double. Magic of compounding. Will do it easily. Maybe a triple. That would be 12% annual return. I can see it happening for growth companies like Sirius growing EBITDA at much faster rates than 12% over the next decade.

[midas360]

What's with everyone calling each other Brandon and Spencer. Just using Spencer in the same sentence or paragraph with Brandon is offensive IMHO. Muscle is not Spencer and User is not Brandon. User is Muscle!

Brandon - I am most certainly not Spencer. I argued with him for years that Sirius would maintain a 20% EBITDA growth rate. He disagreed. I was right, he was wrong. He also loved steaming music Internet companies like Pandora and Slacker. I obviously disagreed. Now he follows speculative drug companies. I have no interest in that.

Of course there will be a couple corrections over the next decade just like there was one this past summer. That's why I am prepared with cash to buy more Sirius or Comcast on a correction. 7.5% average annual return over 10 years gives you a double. Magic of compounding. Will do it easily. Maybe a triple. That would be 12% annual return. I can see it happening for growth companies like Sirius growing EBITDA at much faster rates than 12% over the next decade.

[user34615145]

Brandon - I am most certainly not Spencer. I argued with him for years that Sirius would maintain a 20% EBITDA growth rate. He disagreed. I was right, he was wrong. He also loved steaming music Internet companies like Pandora and Slacker. I obviously disagreed. Now he follows speculative drug companies. I have no interest in that.

Of course there will be a couple corrections over the next decade just like there was one this past summer. That's why I am prepared with cash to buy more Sirius or Comcast on a correction. 7.5% average annual return over 10 years gives you a double. Magic of compounding. Will do it easily. Maybe a triple. That would be 12% annual return. I can see it happening for growth companies like Sirius growing EBITDA at much faster rates than 12% over the next decade.

Spencer, that's easily the type of reply I would expect from Spencer.

This summer was a speed-bump, that's all. I'm talking about a 12-18 month bear market, not a 4 month short term correction.
I agree that it's important to have cash to take advantage of those opportunities. Cash is King in a down market.

[MUSCLE13]

Spencer, that's easily the type of reply I would expect from Spencer.

This summer was a speed-bump, that's all. I'm talking about a 12-18 month bear market, not a 4 month short term correction.
I agree that it's important to have cash to take advantage of those opportunities. Cash is King in a down market.

Brandon - We all know I am not Spencer. I have never used multiple aliases on boards. While you use a ton of them. Serves no purpose.

I highly doubt we run into a scenario like we had in 08-09 over the next decade. It was the worst recession ever. Almost approaching the depression era. Not quite. But I do see corrections like we had in 2011 and this year.

Case in point - Correction summer 2011. Market was basically even in 2011. Sirius stock went up about 11%. This year market is basically even with a correction in the summer, Sirius stock price is up 16.5%. Sirius has the best EBITDA growth prospects in media.

[dm_4]

I see the Brandon/Spencer show has replaced the Midas/DM4 show. I don't think they can fill our shoes Midas but we should at least give em a chance.


EDIT: Last time HS signed...the news broke around 7/8th of December plus or minus a day. So i would expect news out one am next week possibly on howards show first followed by a press release.

I might have to pick up some Siri on monday if not to late on a pullback to 4.05 area for a quick sell the news profit.

[midas360]

HAHAHA... great point and idea. I will sit back and watch this one. How are you doing? Did you find anymore good trades? I think my SDRL is going to wipe 1/2 my 2015 gains. Sucks...

I see the Brandon/Spencer show has replaced the Midas/DM4 show. I don't think they can fill our shoes Midas but we should at least give em a chance.


EDIT: Last time HS signed...the news broke around 7/8th of December plus or minus a day. So i would expect news out one am next week possibly on howards show first followed by a press release.

I might have to pick up some Siri on monday if not to late on a pullback to 4.05 area for a quick sell the news profit.

[MUSCLE13]

Last time HS signed...the news broke around 7/8th of December plus or minus a day. So i would expect news out one am next week possibly on howards show first followed by a press release.

I might have to pick up some Siri on monday if not to late on a pullback to 4.05 area for a quick sell the news profit.

Brandon - 12/9/10 Hilarious

[MUSCLE13]

I really would like to get Charles and Spencer's opinion on this article, since they were both such big proponents of music streaming services like Pandora and Slacker

Requiem for a stream

Boyko points to Deezer’s recently cancelled initial public offering and to Spotify’s continued nine-figure losses as signs that not even the best standalone streaming services will survive with Apple and Google in the mix. “At the end of the day, they’re walking zombies,” Boyko says. “It’s a matter of time before they don’t exist.”

It’s something Bay has given a lot of thought to. When physical sales plunged, he points out, independent retailers went out of business as box stores such as Wal-Mart simply rearranged their shelves. Rdio could be the canary in the coal mine, the first big stand-alone service among many to disappear. Canada’s early-adopting music fanatics are lamenting Rdio’s loss, but those feelings could soon be felt by far more people in far more countries. If the industry itself isn’t sustainable, individual companies can only survive so long.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/...ticle27507881/