Siri Monthly Tread. September

[midas360]

[user34615145]

It takes hundreds of millions of dollars to acquire the audio content like Howard NFL MLB that Sirius has. These Internet music streamers like Pandora and Spotify don't make any money. They simply don't have the cash to compete for content. Sirius has those resources. Now I was scared Apple Music might do it 3 years ago. But they haven't and have shown no signs of ever competing for top audio content other than music.

Hulu and Amazon are spending billions to compete with Netflix on video content. So are HBO and Showtime spending. And now Alibaba entered the video streaming market in China and the rumors are swirling in the press articles about Apple spending on exclusive video content. Make no mistake about there are companies with resources competing for video content. Tell me who is spending on audio content other than music on the net?

I guess I'm thinking of "competition" not so much as other/more/different audio content, but rather as anything that attracts the attention of clients away from Satrad. In SiriusXM's case those clients are, for the most part, drivers and passengers in cars. So what could disrupt that? Beats me but who knows what new technology can bring in the way of disruptive forces and unintended consequences? For example, the driverless car....when people can take their eyes off the road and spend their daily commute doing things other than just listening to the radio, what will they do? Perhaps they log into work...or watch the episode of "Game of Thrones" that they missed the previous evening....or maybe they will just sleep - but none of those examples involve Satrad. And the next thing you know all that expensive audio content isn't getting any love.
I know that example is a stretch and it's out there a ways.... more than just a few years off, but I'm using it as kind of an exaggerated example of what disruptive competition could look like and what it could do to the status quo.

Here's another example: this morning I went golfing (shot 42 for 9 holes including 16 putts, from the black tees - pretty decent for me anyhow ) I used a free app download to help me with yardage...it was accurate to probably within 5 yards....not great but plenty close enough for 14 handicapper.....there are plenty of these apps out there to choose from and they all offer basic yardage for free...so why would anyone buy one of those yardage viewers for $350? Some still do because they are extremely accurate, but like I said, for most of us a free app that is accurate to within 5 yds is close enough....now that's disruptive technology....same can be said for my mapping app on my phone...why buy a Garmin when I can just turn on my map app and get turn-by-turn voice instructions from anywhere to anywhere just by punching in the address of my destination?

[midas360]

@user and @muscle... just look at what UBER is doing. Disruptive? All I know is when I ask for a lift somewhere, that uber better have Sirius XM.

[MUSCLE13]

I guess I'm thinking of "competition" not so much as other/more/different audio content, but rather as anything that attracts the attention of client away from Satrad. In SiriusXM's case those clients are, for the most part, drivers and passengers in cars. So what could disrupt that? Beats me but who knows what new technology can bring in the way of disruptive forces and unintended consequences? For example, the driverless car....when people can take their eyes off the road and spend their daily commute doing things other than just listening to the radio, what will they do? Perhaps they log into work...or watch the episode of "Game of Thrones" that they missed the previous evening....or maybe they will just sleep - but none of those examples involve Satrad. And the next thing you know all that expensive audio content isn't getting any love.
I know that example is a stretch and it's out there a ways.... more than just a few years off, but I'm using it as kind of an exaggerated example of what disruptive competition could look like and what it could do to the status quo.

Here's another example: this morning I went golfing (shot 42 for 9 holes with 16 putts, from the black tees - pretty decent for me anyhow ) I used a free app download to help me with yardage...it was accurate to probably within 5 yards....not great but plenty close enough for 14 handicapper.....there are plenty of these apps out there to choose from and they all offer basic yardage for free...so why would anyone buy one of those yardage viewers for $350? Some still do because they are extremely accurate, but like I said, for most of us a free app that is accurate to within 5 yds is close enough....now that's disruptive technology....same can be said for my mapping app on my phone...why buy a Garmin when I can just turn on my map app and get voice turn-by-turn instructions from anywhere to anywhere just by punching in the address of my destination?

I think I am starting to recognize from your writing style and tech focus who you are. I agree with you on driverless cars being a threat maybe a decade or 2 out. Frear even mentioned video to cars as something Sirius has done and certainly they have an option to do again decades out with their spectrum.

But I am more concentrated on 2017 and SXM17 from a tech standpoint. I am a huge believer in content. People don't listen to terrestrial radio, sat radio or internet radio. They listen to Howard, MLB NFL Elvis Madonna or Lady Gaga. SXM 17 will give them the opportunity to listen to it live on sat or on demand on internet in the car. You can say Sirius is disrupting itself, or you can say Sirius is adding to its choice on how to listen to that content.

[midas360]

Hate to say it, but you are kind of wrong about that. I don't have Sirius XM and I do listen to the radio. My daughter uses Pandora. I am sure we aren't the only ones either.

I think I am starting to recognize from your writing style and tech focus who you are. I agree with you on driverless cars being a threat maybe a decade or 2 out. Frear even mentioned video to cars as something Sirius has done and certainly they have an option to do again decades out with their spectrum.

But I am more concentrated on 2017 and SXM17 from a tech standpoint. I am a huge believer in content. People don't listen to terrestrial radio, sat radio or internet radio. They listen to Howard, MLB NFL Elvis Madonna or Lady Gaga. SXM 17 will give them the opportunity to listen to it live on sat or on demand on internet in the car. You can say Sirius is disrupting itself, or you can say Sirius is adding to its choice on how to listen to that content.

[user34615145]

You can say Sirius is disrupting itself, or you can say Sirius is adding to its choice on how to listen to that content.

THAT is exactly what you want! SiriusXM absolutely must disrupt itself if it hopes to remain relevant. And even if the technology is years down the road, they need to be thinking and preparing for that day now.

Back to NFLX.....Regardless of what you think about their valuations - and I agree that they are ridiculously, outrageously, insanely high - you have to admit that they've done a masterful job of (barely) staying ahead of the technology curve - changing from a company that would send you DVD's in the mail to one that delivers it's on demand content via internet. It wasn't smooth (remember Qwikster?) but they did it. They've proven they can change with (ahead?) of the times so I'm not counting them out just yet.

I appreciate your insight muscle...it provides much food for thought!

[MUSCLE13]

Hate to say it, but you are kind of wrong about that. I don't have Sirius XM and I do listen to the radio. My daughter uses Pandora. I am sure we aren't the only ones either.

I don't think you or your daughter listen to the radio. I think you listen to a financial talk show on terrestrial and your daughter listens to teen music on Pandora.

[MUSCLE13]

THAT is exactly what you want! SiriusXM absolutely must disrupt itself if it hopes to remain relevant. And even if the technology is years down the road, they need to be thinking and preparing for that day now.

Back to NFLX.....Regardless of what you think about their valuations - and I agree that they are ridiculously, outrageously, insanely high - you have to admit that they've done a masterful job of (barely) staying ahead of the technology curve - changing from a company that would send you DVD's in the mail to one that delivers it's on demand content via internet. It wasn't smooth (remember Qwikster?) but they did it. They've proven they can change with (ahead?) of the times so I'm not counting them out just yet.

I appreciate your insight muscle...it provides much food for thought!

I don't invest in disruption. I don't invest in counting on changing ahead. I invest in EBITDA, FCF and EPS with reasonable multiples in comparison to future growth. Great technological companies can have lousy stocks. Look at the net bubble of 99, 2000. Eyeballs mean nothing compared to dollars. And I am a huge believer in the dollar value of content so I invest in media content companies which I believe Sirius is. Not tech. Thanks for the compliment but we just never got along, and never will....

[midas360]

You are correct BUT when we are together going to school, we crank up ET Radio baby! BTW... I am feeling the "writing style" comment. I think it's Hamburger Helper Faulkner himself. You can't fool us!!!

What's funny is... I see both sides of your guys argument and I think you both are correct. Maybe Sirius XM goes to $6 by 2017 (muscle is right). Maybe by 2019, Apple, Google, Uber, Yo Mamma comes out with a new tech that wipes SIRI off the map. Ah who knows. PLACE YOUR BETS !!

I am still liking the Star Wars bet though!

Edit: What I would like to see is a completely new interface that is device independent meaning... as long as the device supports the automobile's hardware interface, you can plug in any device and use it on the screen. iMediaInterface or something....

I don't think you or your daughter listen to the radio. I think you listen to a financial talk show on terrestrial and your daughter listens to teen music on Pandora.

[MUSCLE13]

I think it's Hamburger Helper Faulkner himself. You can't fool us!!!

Disagree. Have a good one........