SIRI Monthly Thread August 2015

[user34615145]

hmmmm. this is interesting......http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...gyholnk0000001

[bdp.]

hmmmm. this is interesting......http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...gyholnk0000001

Desperate move.

[bdp.]

So China's market is crashing and the government does nothing which forces panic in the U.S. market causing a market calamity which may now, in effect, result in the rate hike being postponed which will help prevent any further dollar value increase that would further harm the Chinese economy. So I suspect, once a postponed rate hike is announced, you will see China suddenly spring into action.

[dm_4]

Bill Belichick must see something in Reggie Wayne...other teams don't see. Interesting pick up. Could be a number of things. Guy is a consummate pro.

[user34615145]

He's not going anywhere. He's just mad that he's losing his arse. He will come around when the market picks back up.

No, not that.... That's it's "dumb" to think that the Fed is influenced by things other than just economic conditions. Any Fed watcher - even those with a healthy dose of Naiveté, knows that the fed is influenced by any number of things outside it's official mandate of monetary policy. Remember Greenspans' comment on "irrational exuberance"? That was directed toward the stock market - not the economy or monetary policy....How about Yellen's comments on "equity valuations are generally quit high" - why would she be at all concerned with that if all she was just looking at the economy and monetary policy?....And you'd have to be a real Pollyanna to think that politics don't play into their decision making process. Anyone with any shred of a grasp on reality knows that Fed actions are influenced by politics during election years.
Many publications as well money managers have expressed concern over what the Fed will do if the economy turns south again and they have no room to cut rates......and we are coming up on an election year.
Muscle is too smart not to realize that, which is why I asked if he was kidding - because he knows better.

[bdp.]

And here comes the profit grabbing into the close.

[midas360]

Ah... my bad. Thanks! He's just a little overly sensitive because he's down a lot today.

No, not that.... That's it's "dumb" to think that the Fed is influenced by things other than just economic conditions. Any Fed watcher - even those with a healthy dose of Naiveté, knows that the fed is influenced by any number of things outside it's official mandate of monetary policy. Remember Greenspans' comment on "irrational exuberance"? That was directed toward the stock market - not the economy or monetary policy....How about Yellen's comments on "equity valuations are generally quit high" - why would she be at all concerned with that if all she was just looking at the economy and monetary policy?....And you'd have to be a real Pollyanna to think that politics don't play into their decision making process. Anyone with any shred of a grasp on reality knows that Fed actions are influenced by politics during election years.
Many publications as well money managers have expressed concern over what the Fed will do if the economy turns south again and they have no room to cut rates......and we are coming up on an election year.
Muscle is too smart not to realize that, which is why I asked if he was kidding - because he knows better.

[midas360]

Last minute decision... Averaging down on SIRI.

[dm_4]

Last minute decision... Averaging down on SIRI.

sure ya did

[user34615145]

Putting things in Perspective: From a piece I received today from Guggenhiem

Declines 5%+ in the S&P 500 Since 1945= 111

# of 5% to 10% declines =75......Average Decline=(-6%), Avg Length of Decline= 1month, Avg Time to Recovery= 1month

# of 10% to 20% declines = 25, Average Decline=(-13%), Avg Length of Decline = 4 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 3 months

# of 20% to 40% declines = 8, Average Decline=(-27%), Avg Length of Decline = 11 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 14 months

# of 40% or more = 3, Average decline = (-51%), Avg Length of Decline = 22 months, Avg Time to Recovery = 57 Months