SIRI Monthly Thread August 2015

[user34615145]

Interesting play, user. Was it you that mentioned that Faulkner bot a chit load of August 21 $119 Apple calls? They expired worthless yesterday. He lost ALOT OF MONEY. Damn.

If it wasn't you, it was someone in here. Maybe it was him and he deleted it. Who knows.

I don't think I posted that...if it was anyone it was the man himself. I do remember him saying he expected the stock to bounce back to 124, which it never did, so if he placed a bet on that play by purchasing calls, well yeah....that wouldn't have worked out so well. But, like I said, I don't recall if he posted anything to that effect. I know I didn't.

[midas360]

ok. I thought I remembered something like that. Probably him then.

I don't think I posted that...if it was anyone it was the man himself. I do remember him saying he expected the stock to bounce back to 124, which it never did, so if he placed a bet on that play by purchasing calls, well yeah....that wouldn't have worked out so well. But, like I said, I don't recall if he posted anything to that effect. I know I didn't.

[waldo29]

Waldo is IN DA HOUSE!!!! Good stuff as always Waldo...On a side note, what are your thoughts on the VIX at this level with the (slightly diminished) possibility of the Fed making a move coming up in Sept? Do we see the VIX at least yawn, stretch, and fart before turning over an going back to sleep for another 3 months?

Hey User, I saw your VIX calls play. No time to comment as it played out, but nice move(s), Friday must have been great for that position.

Been playing the downside via the commodity EM's (FX&ADR) off the Iran 'deal' starting gun. Refineries are going into maint. mode and crude is still piling up. U.S. Driving season is over and the glut continues until the house of Saud blinks or we get another wave of BK's here (U.S). CVX and RDS divy cuts should come first. The black swan would be a PBR BK. High yield is showing the stress, JNK breaks 36.16 and we got trouble all the way around.

however, we should have a bounce Monday, look to Asia Sunday night or 6 pm for our futures. Central Banks are talking, PBOC has lost control of the equity market (like they should be in there anyhow, but they all do it) and has lost all credibility. Its going to be volatile (hard in both directions) for a few moons and there is nothing we can do about it. Friday was bad technically, SnP range has been broken. After the bounce we at least get to the 10% correction at a minimum (not far from where we stand tonight). Buy the dippers have been mildly burnt this time around, we need them to come back in after the trading desk 'A' teams gets off the beach. Show up, or we got ways to go beyond the 10%.

The Fed is in a corner of their own painting. Sept. rate hike is off the table (IMO) unless China can stop being spastic. If the macro does not get better count out December too. After that, we are in an election year, politics are then in play. They may have missed their window. I expect PBOC will be forced to throw the kitchen sink at it soon, but who trusts them, all their numbers are pulled out of their...

SIRI is capped until at least Q3, [trade] sell the 4+change buy the 3.63/3.65 line. Stops a nickle down (3.60). If it breaks down I am out of the long position and back in to complete trade mode. They had a pretty good Q, but the clocks ticking on connected car and the next round of capital expenditures.

Be out of the country for a month, check in form time to time.

Peace

[user34615145]

Hey User, I saw your VIX calls play. No time to comment as it played out, but nice move(s), Friday must have been great for that position.

Been playing the downside via the commodity EM's (FX&ADR) off the Iran 'deal' starting gun. Refineries are going into maint. mode and crude is still piling up. U.S. Driving season is over and the glut continues until the house of Saud blinks or we get another wave of BK's here (U.S). CVX and RDS divy cuts should come first. The black swan would be a PBR BK. High yield is showing the stress, JNK breaks 36.16 and we got trouble all the way around.

however, we should have a bounce Monday, look to Asia Sunday night or 6 pm for our futures. Central Banks are talking, PBOC has lost control of the equity market (like they should be in there anyhow, but they all do it) and has lost all credibility. Its going to be volatile (hard in both directions) for a few moons and there is nothing we can do about it. Friday was bad technically, SnP range has been broken. After the bounce we at least get to the 10% correction at a minimum (not far from where we stand tonight). Buy the dippers have been mildly burnt this time around, we need them to come back in after the trading desk 'A' teams gets off the beach. Show up, or we got ways to go beyond the 10%.

The Fed is in a corner of their own painting. Sept. rate hike is off the table (IMO) unless China can stop being spastic. If the macro does not get better count out December too. After that, we are in an election year, politics are then in play. They may have missed their window. I expect PBOC will be forced to throw the kitchen sink at it soon, but who trusts them, all their numbers are pulled out of their...

SIRI is capped until at least Q3, [trade] sell the 4+change buy the 3.63/3.65 line. Stops a nickle down (3.60). If it breaks down I am out of the long position and back in to complete trade mode. They had a pretty good Q, but the clocks ticking on connected car and the next round of capital expenditures.

Be out of the country for a month, check in form time to time.

Peace

Thanks for the response and insight Waldo. I'm out of those long vix calls and now into the long VIX Puts @15 using house money from the calls for that trade. We shall see what comes to pass. Hoping your are right about a bounce on Monday and I'm out of the Puts at a profit with a quick trigger finger. After that? Who knows...might be back into those calls for either Sept or Oct playing out the fed rate decision, Oil and the Iran vote for some profits on those. I think you are spot on with your call for higher volatility going forward for the next few month and I plan on taking positions on both sides of that coin as opportunity presents itself - But not getting greedy and instead taking what the market gives in smaller portions.
Good luck yourself and enjoy your time away!

[waldo29]

Thanks for the response and insight Waldo. I'm out of those long vix calls and now into the long VIX Puts @15 using house money from the calls for that trade. We shall see what comes to pass. Hoping your are right about a bounce on Monday and I'm out of the Puts at a profit with a quick trigger finger. After that? Who knows...might be back into those calls for either Sept or Oct playing out the fed rate decision, Oil and the Iran vote for some profits on those. I think you are spot on with your call for higher volatility going forward for the next few month and I plan on taking positions on both sides of that coin as opportunity presents itself - But not getting greedy and instead taking what the market gives in smaller portions.
Good luck yourself and enjoy your time away!

No RRR cut from PBOC, a bit of a disappointment. Bounce may not materialize. Futures looking rough. Maybe we get some lip service from Draghi. Stay nimble.

[midas360]

It's going to be a very, very bad open tomorrow (Aug 24th). Futures are -449. Good Luck! Sirius XM is going down further. Hope you guys saved some cash to buy the f'ing dip. $2.75 looking good.

[user34615145]

Gonna be an ugly open. But stay positive and stay ready with any trades you've been waiting to make. I would not be at all surprised to see the mkts end the day green.

[bdp.]

The market is getting profoundly oversold. 😐

[user34615145]

The market is getting profoundly oversold. 😐

Agreed bdp. When the retail investors are flushed out they buying will begin.

[bdp.]

Agreed bdp. When the retail investors are flushed out they buying will begin.

The implication is that retail investors are idiots.