SIRI Monthly Thread August 2015

[MUSCLE13]

20 years ago Blockbuster felt confident that they'd be dominant in the video rental business by 2013. Can't say they were wrong.

Absolutely and a lot has happened in the last 13 years since Sirius got its first subscribers in 2002. When Howard signed in 2004 he said 30 million subs one day. They are coming up to 29 million now. When Howard signed in 2004 I said one day Sirius will be factory installed in all cars. Since then iPods were supposed to destroy Sirius in the car. Then it was HD radio. Then came the streamers/internet radio. Sirius just announced that they are heading towards 75% penetration in all new cars. They are right now installed in 32% of all cars on the road (76 million) and heading to 150 million within approximately 6-7 years at current 70-75% install rates. SXM17 is coming and will add installs of Sirius internet capability to sat radio in new cars.

How in the heck with all the technology from Ipods to Pandora Spotify and Apple music did Sirius get intalled in 76 million cars with almost 30 million subs since they started 13 years ago? That's a long time too. A lot of other things happened in audio technology. Answer - Content. Howard said the first day he would get them to 30 million subs and change radio again. He wrote it down. They get there next year.

Watch them go to 100% penetration one day from 72% today and be preinstalled in every single car on the road, sat and internet, just like AM FM is preinstalled today. Answer - Content.

Maybe one day you guys (user and and Midas) will actually follow the company instead of guessing what the stock price will be tomorrow.

[MUSCLE13]

@Muscle... Did you see the Barron's article from yesterday?

The Media Mess

Media stocks got clocked last week, after Disney said it might sell ESPN directly to consumers. Is the cable bundle coming apart?

http://online.barrons.com/news/artic...MTA4OTAwNzk4Wj


20 years????? ALOT can happen in 20 years. HAHAHA

Yes I saw this Barrons article

Walt Disney’s Prospects Are Bright, Despite Cable Weakness
Disney shares were slammed as more customers canceled cable plans. But the company is seeing plenty of success elsewhere. Shares could rally 50%.


http://online.barrons.com/articles/w...ess-1439008708

And this NY Post article that quoted the greatest Media analyst in history

Veteran BofA/Merrill Lynch analyst Jessica Reif Cohen thinks the sell-off is overblown.

Tech firms such as Yahoo!, Microsoft and even Apple have tried to get into the programming business with limited success over the years, she noted.

Reif Cohen said the precipitous pay-TV stock drop was nothing short of “an amazing overreaction.”

http://nypost.com/2015/08/06/espn-re...edia-industry/

[MUSCLE13]

Midas this one is for you -

Analyst Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson told The Post: “What has been reported so far is materially worse than last year. Cable operators have done well, but satellite and the telcos have been quite weak, more than offsetting the year-on-year improvement from the cable operators.”

http://nypost.com/2015/08/06/espn-re...edia-industry/

Cable is going to kick Satellite TV's ass! Mark my words

[user34615145]

Absolutely and a lot has happened in the last 13 years since Sirius got its first subscribers in 2002. When Howard signed in 2004 he said 30 million subs one day. They are coming up to 29 million now. When Howard signed in 2004 I said one day Sirius will be factory installed in all cars. Since then iPods were supposed to destroy Sirius in the car. Then it was HD radio. Then came the streamers/internet radio. Sirius just announced that they are heading towards 75% penetration in all new cars. They are right now installed in 32% of all cars on the road (76 million) and heading to 150 million within approximately 6-7 years at current 70-75% install rates. SXM17 is coming and will add installs of Sirius internet capability to sat radio in new cars.

How in the heck with all the technology from Ipods to Pandora Spotify and Apple music did Sirius get intalled in 76 million cars with almost 30 million subs since they started 13 years ago? That's a long time too. A lot of other things happened in audio technology. Answer - Content. Howard said the first day he would get them to 30 million subs and change radio again. He wrote it down. They get there next year.

Watch them go to 100% penetration one day from 72% today and be preinstalled in every single car on the road, sat and internet, just like AM FM is preinstalled today. Answer - Content.

Maybe one day you guys (user and and Midas) will actually follow the company instead of guessing what the stock price will be tomorrow.

All the points you make are well taken and valid points Muscle. Not saying SiriusXM can't succeed and adapt in a changing world. Not saying they are doomed to failure...What was once a curious (and expensive) experiment in Sat Rad is now a successful ongoing concern - despite all the naysayers predictions of failure. To be sure, failure came pretty close to happening a couple of times but the product persevered and has thrived.

I don't necessarily care what the day to day price of SIRI is...although there are always trading (I know "trading is a dirty word to you but some of us like to trade short term AND invest long term) opportunities. At the same time I'm not even considering where the company will be in 20 years. In 20 years maybe the SiriusXM will be doing great but I'll be dead! So what good will SIRI do for me then? I continue to evaluate, and re-evaluate both the short term opportunities and the longer term viability of all the stocks I am holding or considering to invest in.

[dm_4]

Contract or no-contract? Tough choices for an AT&T wireless customer
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/contrac...120005721.html

ATT nickle and dime their customers and they have many pissed off customers.

I HATE ATT UVERSE INTERNET!!!
https://forums.att.com/t5/Features-a...T/td-p/4109268


And muscle you are spot on when it comes to netflix and hulu....ya need broadband for that. Keep taking these jokers to school, so funny.

[MUSCLE13]

. At the same time I'm not even considering where the company will be in 20 years. In 20 years maybe the SiriusXM will be doing great but I'll be dead!

I think that is the wrong way to invest. John Malone said recently he always thinks 10-20 years out in investing despite his age, and he is 74 years old!

Since I started investing about 25 years ago, I look intensely at quarter to quarter numbers, but more important to me is will the company be much more successful in 5-10 years. Growth is everything. That's how I got my million. I have never held a stock investment less than 5 years. And have dollar cost averaged indexes since 1990.

[dm_4]

Midas this one is for you -

Analyst Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson told The Post: “What has been reported so far is materially worse than last year. Cable operators have done well, but satellite and the telcos have been quite weak, more than offsetting the year-on-year improvement from the cable operators.”

http://nypost.com/2015/08/06/espn-re...edia-industry/

Cable is going to kick Satellite TV's ass! Mark my words

100 percent correct muscle....its not even a competition.

[MUSCLE13]

And muscle you are spot on when it comes to netflix and hulu....ya need broadband for that.

Netflix 9 bucks a month with $5 billion in content costs. Broadband 50 bucks a month with ZERO content costs. Who do you think is making the profit when somebody subscribes to video streaming- Netflix or Broadband?

[midas360]

Good stuff Muscle! I love reading stuff like this but everyone knows Craig Moffet is a "cable stock fluffer." You know better than to post anything he says regarding the telcos and satellite. COME ONE MUSCLE!!!

Midas this one is for you -

Analyst Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson told The Post: “What has been reported so far is materially worse than last year. Cable operators have done well, but satellite and the telcos have been quite weak, more than offsetting the year-on-year improvement from the cable operators.”

http://nypost.com/2015/08/06/espn-re...edia-industry/

Cable is going to kick Satellite TV's ass! Mark my words

[dm_4]

Netflix 9 bucks a month with $5 billion in content costs. Broadband 50 bucks a month with ZERO content costs. Who do you think is making the profit when somebody subscribes to video streaming- Netflix or Broadband?

netflix gonna have to eventually increase their prices too!!!