SIRI Monthly Thread July 2015

[bcoz]

Let's hope it's a strong tail wind.

[user34615145]

You guys just don't get it at all. It is not just Harrigan. It is Jessica, Amobi and every other analyst on the street that lists internet streaming as risks to Sirius. THEY ARE ALL WRONG! That's why the stock will be reevaluated up over time (the next year or so). It's very rare when everybody on the street gets a theory wrong - One example I can think of is the AOL Time Warner merger in 2000. All the analysts got it completely wrong and the combination imploded.

In this case we will see a much higher price as subs accelerate in the face of this incorrect internet theory. You guys all can make up your conspiracy theories. The fact of the matter is that the business has been incorrectly evaluated on the street. Mel was the only one to say it on the calls- He called the internet music streamers "the race to the bottom". LOL He is said it was no different in competition to radio than all the packaged music that has made its way into the car over the last century. He got it right! The analysts have not. They will.

And so you've hit on the real issue with sell side analysts. They all spout the conventional wisdom with very little difference between them. Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street Firms have claimed as a foregone conclusion that internet streaming is the future and it will kill SiriusXM. If Amobi or Jessica Cohen, or other analysts suspect that the conventional wisdom is wrong they are not going to risk their jobs and reputations by opposing that viewpoint. After all, those Wall Street firms provide their paychecks! Thoughout history, those that dare challenge the status quo put their livelihoods ( and sometimes even their lives) on the line...History teaches us not to rock the boat no matter how absurd the status quo might be.
Indulge me a case in point: In 1633 the Church (yesteryear's Wall Street) condemned Galileo when he had the gall to suggest that, maybe...perhaps, the Earth Revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around as the Church had insisted was the conventional wisdom of the day. Galileo was imprisoned and sentenced to death - unless he recanted his position. Luckily, he was more of a Pragmatist than an Astronomer so he quickly did so! Of course 8 years later, on his deathbed he published a paper that recanted his recantation! You want to know the crazy part? It wasn't until almost 360 years later in 1992 (that's right 1992!) that the Church finally, grudgingly admitted that Galileo was right!
It's a dangerous thing when dogma colors your better judgment and it's no different with investment decisions....I, for one, want to make sure that my current perspective doesn't become my own dogma which ends up clouding my judgment. SIRI had a GREAT quarter and certainly things are looking up. I look forward to busting through this $4 wall and moving on. But to dismiss ANY kind of competition, be it Pandora or AT&T or hell, even Blackberry with their QNX platform, and assume that SiriusXM has the drop on everyone with the "Connected Car" - however you define it, is a tantamount to potentially closing your eyes to a changing landscape that might see SirusXM 10 years from now as relevant as an 8 track tape deck is today.
When I hear someone of Meyer's position and stature say .....
"This stuff takes time, okay, which is one of the reasons why occasionally when I read about how fast everybody thinks every new entrants going to enter the vehicle, I kind of get a little skeptical because I've lived it for 12 years. This will take time."
....well I get nervous, real nervous. I'd feel a whole lot better if he were to acknowledge that things can change fast - so fast that I'll bet if he were to stop and take a look, he'd find that he still carries a Blockbuster (remember them?) membership card in his wallet. I know still I do
My (long winded) point being: don't dismiss some article or piece of information just because it doesn't jibe with your current viewpoint. Every piece of information is valuable and I thank all those that post links to such info.
Anyway sorry for the boring history stuff, but I just thought I'd share. thanks for coming

Oh and BTW, if your definition of a "Connected Car" is streaming music, well we've had that since 1922. http://mentalfloss.com/article/29631...le-freaked-out

[brian65PLS]

a little disappointed. Had expected a break through of the 4.00 and pull back. It just touched 4.00 today. However I was really surprised by the fact it went back to normal volume. SF thanks for your excellent posts!

[dm_4]

And so you've hit on the real issue with sell side analysts. They all spout the conventional wisdom with very little difference between them. Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street Firms have claimed as a foregone conclusion that internet streaming is the future and it will kill SiriusXM. If Amobi or Jessica Cohen, or other analysts suspect that the conventional wisdom is wrong they are not going to risk their jobs and reputations by opposing that viewpoint. After all, those Wall Street firms provide their paychecks! Thoughout history, those that dare challenge the status quo put their livelihoods ( and sometimes even their lives) on the line...History teaches us not to rock the boat no matter how absurd the status quo might be.
Indulge me a case in point: In 1633 the Church (yesteryear's Wall Street) condemned Galileo when he had the gall to suggest that, maybe...perhaps, the Earth Revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around as the Church had insisted was the conventional wisdom of the day. Galileo was imprisoned and sentenced to death - unless he recanted his position. Luckily, he was more of a Pragmatist than an Astronomer so he quickly did so! Of course 8 years later, on his deathbed he published a paper that recanted his recantation! You want to know the crazy part? It wasn't until almost 360 years later in 1992 (that's right 1992!) that the Church finally, grudgingly admitted that Galileo was right!
It's a dangerous thing when dogma colors your better judgment and it's no different with investment decisions....I, for one, want to make sure that my current perspective doesn't become my own dogma which ends up clouding my judgment. SIRI had a GREAT quarter and certainly things are looking up. I look forward to busting through this $4 wall and moving on. But to dismiss ANY kind of competition, be it Pandora or AT&T or hell, even Blackberry with their QNX platform, and assume that SiriusXM has the drop on everyone with the "Connected Car" - however you define it, is a tantamount to potentially closing your eyes to a changing landscape that might see SirusXM 10 years from now as relevant as an 8 track tape deck is today.
When I hear someone of Meyer's position and stature say .....
"This stuff takes time, okay, which is one of the reasons why occasionally when I read about how fast everybody thinks every new entrants going to enter the vehicle, I kind of get a little skeptical because I've lived it for 12 years. This will take time."
....well I get nervous, real nervous. I'd feel a whole lot better if he were to acknowledge that things can change fast - so fast that I'll bet if he were to stop and take a look, he'd find that he carries a Blockbuster (remember them?) membership card in his wallet.
My (long winded) point being: don't dismiss some article or piece of information just because it doesn't jibe with your viewpoint. Every piece of information is valuable and I thank all those that post links to such info.
Anyway sorry for the boring history stuff, but I just thought I'd share. thanks for coming

Pretty sure Meyer does not have a blockbuster card in his wallet, i would take that bet all day long if we could actually prove it lol. Hell i would give 20 to 1 odds on that!!

Additionally I am sure based on Meyers years of experience he would not have said what he said if he truly did not believe it.

Couldn't you apply your same logic and theory to ATT, etc, etc ?? oh and thanks for comng

[midas360]

+1

I could not agree more. It's frustrating for sure.

a little disappointed. Had expected a break through of the 4.00 and pull back. It just touched 4.00 today. However I was really surprised by the fact it went back to normal volume. SF thanks for your excellent posts!

[midas360]

+1

A breath of fresh air. I wish I could subscribe to your comments because you have a good handle on this subject. This is what I've been trying to say for awhile now.

Oh and BTW, if your definition of a "Connected Car" is streaming music, well we've had that since 1922. http://mentalfloss.com/article/29631...le-freaked-out

This is something everyone should think about and should know the answer too already. This is the very reason why Sirius XM purchased Agero. Now the hard work has begun...

This is probably one of two of the best posts on here next to Muscle's comments in the past!

High Mother F'ing Five! <SMACK>

Edit: Too bad Galileo couldn't just put the Church on "ignore"! HAHAHA

And so you've hit on the real issue with sell side analysts. They all spout the conventional wisdom with very little difference between them. Conventional Wisdom from Wall Street Firms have claimed as a foregone conclusion that internet streaming is the future and it will kill SiriusXM. If Amobi or Jessica Cohen, or other analysts suspect that the conventional wisdom is wrong they are not going to risk their jobs and reputations by opposing that viewpoint. After all, those Wall Street firms provide their paychecks! Thoughout history, those that dare challenge the status quo put their livelihoods ( and sometimes even their lives) on the line...History teaches us not to rock the boat no matter how absurd the status quo might be.
Indulge me a case in point: In 1633 the Church (yesteryear's Wall Street) condemned Galileo when he had the gall to suggest that, maybe...perhaps, the Earth Revolved around the Sun instead of the other way around as the Church had insisted was the conventional wisdom of the day. Galileo was imprisoned and sentenced to death - unless he recanted his position. Luckily, he was more of a Pragmatist than an Astronomer so he quickly did so! Of course 8 years later, on his deathbed he published a paper that recanted his recantation! You want to know the crazy part? It wasn't until almost 360 years later in 1992 (that's right 1992!) that the Church finally, grudgingly admitted that Galileo was right!
It's a dangerous thing when dogma colors your better judgment and it's no different with investment decisions....I, for one, want to make sure that my current perspective doesn't become my own dogma which ends up clouding my judgment. SIRI had a GREAT quarter and certainly things are looking up. I look forward to busting through this $4 wall and moving on. But to dismiss ANY kind of competition, be it Pandora or AT&T or hell, even Blackberry with their QNX platform, and assume that SiriusXM has the drop on everyone with the "Connected Car" - however you define it, is a tantamount to potentially closing your eyes to a changing landscape that might see SirusXM 10 years from now as relevant as an 8 track tape deck is today.
When I hear someone of Meyer's position and stature say .....
"This stuff takes time, okay, which is one of the reasons why occasionally when I read about how fast everybody thinks every new entrants going to enter the vehicle, I kind of get a little skeptical because I've lived it for 12 years. This will take time."
....well I get nervous, real nervous. I'd feel a whole lot better if he were to acknowledge that things can change fast - so fast that I'll bet if he were to stop and take a look, he'd find that he still carries a Blockbuster (remember them?) membership card in his wallet. I know still I do
My (long winded) point being: don't dismiss some article or piece of information just because it doesn't jibe with your viewpoint. Every piece of information is valuable and I thank all those that post links to such info.
Anyway sorry for the boring history stuff, but I just thought I'd share. thanks for coming

Oh and BTW, if your definition of a "Connected Car" is streaming music, well we've had that since 1922. http://mentalfloss.com/article/29631...le-freaked-out

[MUSCLE13]

One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

[user34615145]

One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

That's what they said to Galileo. Be careful you don't trip over your dogma when you take if for a walk (now THAT's one of the dumbest things ever posted - sorry bout that )

[dm_4]

+1 Muscle!

One of the dumbest posts I have ever seen User. Things take years to change in cars. This isn't smartphones. It took Sirius well over a decade just to get preinstalled in 32% of cars on the road and it will take another 5-7 years to get to 65-70% of cars on the road. This was a post from a person that obviously has never followed the radio business or the car industry. There is a distinct difference between radio and music streaming. Period. Just like CDs were going to destroy terrestrial radio in the car in the 90s. Yeah right!

You have no clue what you are posting about. No clue!

That's what they said to Galileo. Be careful you don't trip over your dogma when you take if for a walk (now THAT's one of the dumbest things ever posted - sorry bout that )

[midas360]

It is disappointing to see SIRI closed down on the day after a nice showing. Ugh...

a little disappointed. Had expected a break through of the 4.00 and pull back. It just touched 4.00 today. However I was really surprised by the fact it went back to normal volume.