SIRI Monthy Thread January, 2015!!

[KnowitALL]

Lots of high volume trading days last year around this time too, but back then it was because of the malone buyout offer. SIRI jumped $.26 on the news and traded over 400 million shares that day before folks starting digesting the offer in the following days/weeks. Boy it seems like a lot longer than just a year ago.

[beehaus]

Agree....a beehaus win would do wonders for our siri portfolio!

Haha..sorry beehaus now i hope Raptor wins.

Ha! No worries I will happily hand over the trophy to Raptor and then drive away in my new car.
I know my 5.25 call seems like an outlier but Jessica still has a $5 target, so not far off. If it wasn't for the LMCA offer and Peppermint Patty/Charlie Brown they pulled we might be there now...

[njbones1]

$4.15 is my guess

[dm_4]

Is there a time table Jessica gives that 5 handle? Is it anytime in 2015? Eoy? I am guessing there is no time frame attached to it. I believe she has had that 5 handle on it for quite some time. Think the came out with it initially first half of 14? Anyway....i hope we see it this year obviously. The one thing i think possibly prevents us from getting (and not obvious to peeps that do not keep a close eye on siri) there if they continue the buybacks and this stock gets dragged as it did last year. If thats the case...we prob won't come close to 5.

[Raptor]

dm / No charts / Have not seemed to work during buyback. Thought you guys were magicians till then. Progression of the cumulative net on the balance sheet tells me we should be at slightly better than a three cents a share Q4. This and buybacks are finally hitting the bottom line. Unless more buybacks are approved able to finance existing through FCF / LOC. Tax line either stays constant or begins to reduce. Net subs never really slowed and people are figuring that out. (GM deal clouded growth numbers) Tax line is bullshit and I think we actually hit 3 cents in Q3 2014. 4 cents a share by Q3 2015. Bottom line I think they are out of smoke and mirrors and net is finally coming up. The big I don't know part is Dec Converts and where and how they will show up. (possibly more smoke and mirror). These guys artificially inflated 2011 EOY net by not paying taxes and have hid the growth of the company by pushing things around the balance sheet. /GM deal / Dividend /Remember the 53 cents a share (more smoke and mirrors) Put simply no where left to hide and it is starting to show.

[dm_4]

dm / No charts / Have not seemed to work during buyback. Thought you guys were magicians till then. Progression of the cumulative net on the balance sheet tells me we should be at slightly better than a three cents a share Q4. This and buybacks are finally hitting the bottom line. Unless more buybacks are approved able to finance existing through FCF / LOC. Tax line either stays constant or begins to reduce. Net subs never really slowed and people are figuring that out. (GM deal clouded growth numbers) Tax line is bullshit and I think we actually hit 3 cents in Q3 2014. 4 cents a share by Q3 2015. Bottom line I think they are out of smoke and mirrors and net is finally coming up. The big I don't know part is Dec Converts and where and how they will show up. (possibly more smoke and mirror). These guys artificially inflated 2011 EOY net by not paying taxes and have hid the growth of the company by pushing things around the balance sheet. /GM deal / Dividend /Remember the 53 cents a share (more smoke and mirrors) Put simply no where left to hide and it is starting to show.

Thanks for the input, good stuff!

[dm_4]

I wish analysts would offer a range.

Me too SF

[dm_4]

@SF.....real nice. A friend of mine was showing me pictures of that ocean fog as well a few days ago that she took up at Old Orchard Beach, Maine. Pretty cool stuff!

[siriustimes]

Faulkner, Thanks for your discussion of targets.. I think very valid points for developing future buy sell points

[MUSCLE13]

You can run a $5 target forever on a stock like SIRI and it should eventually hit it (improving company with buybacks).

I still am trying to figure out what analysts even MEAN by "Target" Is it where they find mid range valuation? Top end / sentiment change? Bottom end / value up to that point? Are they saying it will hit that price on or before X date? It might? They think it should?

Nobody really makes it clear or offers any explanation.

For instance I had a $5.50 sell target for Jan 17th 2015. Where I would sell at or near on or before that date as I would find SIRI overvalued above that point. But it may get to that $5.50 later in 2015 or later in 2016 or something... but I am not so sure it would remain a sell target for me then. Eventually the $5.50 will be "right" but the sell consideration will no longer be valid...

I wish analysts would offer a range.

Media analysts 101 -

12 month targets based on EV/EBITDA, EPS, FCF per share or Discounted cash flow which is what Malone stated on CNBC he prefers as his valuation metric and is what Jessica uses for Sirius. Tinker from Maxim uses FCF per share which is Mel's metric going back to the 90s. I have always preferred EV/EBITDA and my entire media portfolio is under 13 times current EV/EBITDA except Sirius. Hard to argue against using FCF for Sirius when the vast majority of its EBITDA funnels into FCF.

Basically when you are investing in a stock you are buying its future earnings whichever metric you use. It's not a casino. It's not gambling. It's not a lottery ticket. Trading is gambling, but investing is not. Peter Lynch described investing perfectly in Beating the Street. It really is not rocket science at all. You just have to learn how to value companies' earnings and growth rates. It's quite simple really. I think the real trick is have a knack of looking forward 3-5 years, not the actual math which is relatively quite easy. And Peter Lynch figured the tricky part out quite easily as well - Buy what you know and follow. In my case I am a media industry info fanatic. It's one of my hobbies So looking out a few years on something you follow intently is really a snap.