SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 12/29/08

[Demian]

The TED spread continues it's decline......this is why Mel has been waiting to get better financing terms and the wait is paying off. Look at this chart...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuild...1=.TEDSP%3AIND

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

i love it, all these articles trying to keep sirius down is funny. I dont know how they can possibly think sirius is going bankrupt. Im just gonna come out and say it even though ill probaly catch a lot of shit. SIRIUS WILL NOT, I REPEAT, WILL NOT GO BANKRUPT. On another note i doubt these writers make alot of money, imagine how easy it would be for a big org like nab to slip a few bucks to these guys to keep the stories coming, if i was in nab's position, i would probaly do the same thing. satellite radio is the death of terrestrial radio, it will be set aside for emergency broadcasts maybe find some use for it but it wont be the advertising cash cow its been since its invention. anyway im def feeling good about the markets today.

[Demian]

Boy, they really hammered SIRI into the close...

SIRI still closed green, with the DOW up 257 though...

SIRI closed up 1.67% @ .122 on volume of about 33 million shares traded...

[nisvan]

Demien,

Perhaps you'd be so kind to explain in brief layman's
terms what the TED is and how it is used to time
debt consolidation.

Thanks!

[billhart22]

Here is what I got from an independent chart analysis, however I couldn't copy the graphics back in, but they are the least of concern with this:


SIRIUS XM RADIO INC (NASDAQ:SIRI) Strong Downtrend Up Arrow
Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, SIRI scored -90 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

+10 Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average
-15 New 3 Day Low on Wednesday
-20 Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25 New 3 Week Low, Week Ending December 6th
-30 New 3 Month Low in December
-90 Total Score

NASDAQ_SIRI
Open High Low SIRI Price Change
0.1230 0.1280 0.1200 0.1259 +0.0059
Streaming Chart SmartScan Download Data Streaming Chart

------ Can anybody explain that statement in red?? I find it totally amazing that both buyers and sellers can throw equal amounts of mud consistently where the stock at its present price goes no where.

There is not one logical reason to be shorting SIRI, because there isn't enough volatility. There is not any backside to swing trade on. It just doesn't make sense to me.

They won't let the stock go down the tube, but they won't let it grow, either.

Look at the candle chart about 1:30 today and see where the reigns were drawn in when the stock was willing to shoot for .13. Look at the duration of the candles....they were just unreal. There were two of them. They weren't short selling, but instead were going for the throat to reign everything back.

What good would come from manipulating the stock to stay so low?

Just curious..............I would enjoy your thoughts about that and the paragraph up above.

Thanks, and have a great evening -

Bill
(Not being a pessimist, just would like some thoughts)

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

all i can do is hope thats its the randomness of the market and not any kind of manipulation. Hopefully im not naive.

[billhart22]

all i can do is hope thats its the randomness of the market and not any kind of manipulation. Hopefully im not naive.

I agree.....I am trying to come up with an answer.

Bill

[billhart22]

Demien,

Perhaps you'd be so kind to explain in brief layman's
terms what the TED is and how it is used to time
debt consolidation.

Thanks!

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Bus...00809415110534

Here is a good definition that I found for you.

[nisvan]

Excellent. Thanks. Using that link Demien put up from Bloomberg, if you look at the 3 yr view, there was a stark increase in the TED in Aug/Sep of 2007, fluctuating between 1 and 2, as compared to the previous two years, where it had continuously stayed below 1. See:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuild...1=.TEDSP%3AIND
After Aug/Sep 2007, the TED remained between 1 and 2 until in September 2008, when it spiked up to near 5. That's when the market collapsed. This may suggest that investors had an entire year's warning, to get out of the market, if the consistently higher TED numbers after August 2007, are an accurate early predictor of future weakening in the market.

[LIBOR/TED SPREAD]

With the 3 month actually moving into NEGATIVE yield briefly in q4 caused TED spread to = 3 month LIBOR historically TED spread is 10-50 BPS and LIBOR historically is 10 bps higher then the FED FUNDS. Three things are happening that MUST continue to happen to fix this credit mrket!!

1. LIBOR continue to fall hopefully below 100 BPS
2. 3 month T-bill needs to continue to move up in Yield
3. VIX MUST continue to drop, hopefully into the 20's.

Article from 12/08

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1096...s-still-frozen