SIRI Intraday Updates for the Week of 12/15/08

[Keysmark]

Tripping,

Thanks.

[trippingthespeculatingpos]

np keys, i got a question, is it good for volatility to go down on a down day, first time ive seen it happen since ive been watching, would seem like a good sign.

[stang3O2]

I emailed IR and they said there will be no broadcast of the meeting, there will be a press release

[Siriusowner]

Vanguard reported that they added over 81 million shares to their existing position in SIRI last month....

Vanguard Group Inc 2008-11-06 Added More 81,240,981 shares

http://www.mffais.com/siri.html

You have to remember, that is the date they report not the date they buy.

In addition, depending on the mutual fund, they may have a restriction if the stocks they own or intend to buy go below certain value, which can be $4.00, $3.00, $2.00, $1.00, 50 cents, etc... depending on the mutual fund. Some may even be allowed to trade penny stocks but they defenitely are the minority.

Like I said, "it is MOSTLY mutual funds..." I used MAGELLAN and VANGUARD as an example because those names came to my mind and not necessarly said that they do not trade penny stocks...

[Siriusowner]

2+ yrs visiting this site finally decided to sign up and post. I would like to start a new thread around credit markets i.e. LIBOR, TED SPREAD, SPREADS INV GRADE VS HY. This is the #1 most important meassure for SIRI. Subs don't matter at this point (however I DONT want to see a decline in subs) we all know 10 + 10 does not = .5 the stock is trading as an option with a life expectancy of 5 month. We have 82 trading days from Jan 1 - May 1. The FED was HUGE yesterday basically forcing investors to tak on RISK.

A. How the heck do I start a new thread?
B. SIRIUSOWNER thinks he knows everything in reality he is an IDIOT!!
C. Charles is GREAT and works his A$$ off!!!
D. Tyler is borderling genious but has more going on in his life and obviously letting up on on his work here at time when we NEED him the most!
E. Brandon is also smart dude but acts like a LITTLE GIRL.
F. DEMIAN IS GREAT, PLEASE DONT LEAVE US AGAIN!!
G. YAHOO MESSAGE BOARDS ARE USELESS

H. I have a finance degree from TEXAS TECH, I am great at MATH but can't spell worth a flip!!!!!

Good, we have a new MORON that doesn't even know how to start a new thread... ha, ha, ha... I wonder how he got his degree... Oh, I know, he went to Texas Tech... ha, ha, ha. I guess no other schools accepted him.

Sorry Charles, I tried but shit happened...

[Newman]

LOL. Now now siriusowner, you are a texan too... So get your spurs out of your ass and behave =P

Sirius XM also lowered its year-end subscriber expectations from $19.5 million to $19.1 million and cut its 2009 estimate to $20.6 million from its previous figure of $21.5 million.

Is this reporter making it sound like those are the revenues? Why the dollar signs? Those are SUBSCRIBER numbers. If he was using dollar signs, he should point out that Sirius XM is projecting gross revenue of $1.6 BILLION dollars.

The quote that I found MOST interesting though is this one:

We will be positive $30 million to $40 million in EBITDA in the coming year.

First it was EBITDA positive before CAPEX... then in the Q3 CC, it was EBITDA Breakeven INCLUDING CAPEX... now it is 30 to 40 million in Positive EBITDA? Anyone catching how these numbers keep going up other than me?

[Newman]

according to mffais, Oppenheimer Funds reported that they added 13,643,300 shares between 8/18 and 11/14.
Intrepd Capital Management added 36,302,213 shares from 8/11 to 11/14.
California Public Employees Retirement System addd over 15 million.
Price T Rowe added over 84 million! shares.
Jennison Associates added 61 million shares
Barclays Global Investors added over 41 million.
Ameriprise Financials added over 168 million!!
Vanguard added 81 million

With all of this buying, where in the hell is our rise in stock price?? I do not see any significant sales in this list. The majority of all of the sales are small holdings. The largest sale I see is nearly 9 million sahres by ING.

Who the hell is selling all of these shares hitting the markets if it is NOT naked shorts? How many of us actually own the shares we think we do?

[Phil]

Put on your g-suits, oxygen masks and I will see you on the moon. Don't forget to fasten your seat belts.

[stang3O2]

December 18, 2008 10:13 AM EST

Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) is giving update and outlook to investors today at its annual meeting. Below are some highlights from Sirius' presentation.

Sirius XM Radio sees 20.6M subscribers in 2009.

Sirius XM Radio sees 2008 revenue $2.4 billion versus consensus of $2.2 billion.
Sirius XM Radio new adjusted EBITDA guidance is a loss of $200 million versus a loss of $300 million.

Sirius XM Radio guidance implies 4Q08 adjusted EBITDA of ($32) mm versus pro forma 4Q07 of ($224) mm, an 86% improvement

Sirius XM Radio will be 22% lower by year-end 2008.
Sirius XM Radio total cost savings of over $35 million annually

2009
Sirius XM Radio guides 2009 sales $2.7 billion versus consensus of $2.66 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA turns positive in 2009
Approximately $300 mm in 2009

Driven by revenue growth and cost cuts / synergies, offset by royalty and revenue share increases.

JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) and Evercore working on Sirius XM's overall financing plan.

[Keysmark]

Stang,

Thanks for the report.

Keysmark