David Bank has a Big SAC

[Sirius Roadkill]

Older post now updated to reflect James Goss revised target from $1.25 to $1.50

BGB Securities – Murray Arenson $1.35
Janco Partners – Martin Pyykkonen $1.40
Barrington – James Goss $1.50
Lazard – Barton Crooked $1.35
Miller Tabak – David Joyce $1.25
Wunderdich Sec – Matt Hooligan $1.50
Standard & Poors – Tuna Amobi $1.50
Maxim – John Tinker $1.40

Mean: $1.41 Median: $1.40 Mode: $1.50

David Bank, RBC: $1.00

“Near-term, profitability should lag due to SAC ramp ahead of gross additions, but that will likely ‘even out’ over time,” Bank explained.

[Sirius Roadkill]

I once called David Bank "clueless" in a post I made to one of Tyler's news stories in which he cited David Bank's $1.00 price target (October 2010).

Tyler then challenged me to make my case . . . which I did.

But I'm not done.

David Bank went on CNBC with Erin Burnett and cited Viacom as a comp for Siri . . . it wasn't a comp then and it certainly isn't a comp now . . . and David Bank should know better

Read this from today's NY Post:

It's a DVD-isaster
Slumping movie sales stymie Viacom
By CLAIRE ATKINSON

With Post Wire Services

Last Updated: 12:38 AM, February 4, 2011

Posted: 11:33 PM, February 3, 2011

Snooki and the rest of the "Jersey Shore" cast couldn't save Viacom in the latest quarter.

The media giant, which houses cable network MTV and the Paramount film studio, said profit declined 12 percent in the fiscal first quarter after higher cable ratings and film revenue failed to make up for slumping DVD sales.

Revenue fell a more-than-expected 5 percent, sending the shares down in early trading before rebounding. Class A shares of the company, controlled by Sumner Redstone, fell 47 cents to close at $50.04. It's 'B' shares fell 42 cents to $43.55 in New York Stock Exchange trading.

Viacom's quartlerly sales missed analysis' expectations as weak DVD revenue from films like "Shrek"offset "Jersey Shore"-diven cable games. Much of the decline was attributed to a 77 percent drop in profit at Paramount as DVD sales of "How to Train Your Dragon" and the latest "Shrek" faced tough comparisons with year-earlier hits "Transformers," "Star Trek" and "GI Joe."

Despite a strong box-office that benefited from films like "True Grit" and "The Fighter," revenue at the Hollywood unit fell 16 percent, dragged down by a 44 percent drop in home entertainment.

At the media networks division that includes MTV, Comedy Central and Nickelodeon, revenue rose 6 percent, reflecting rising ad sales. Lifted by higher ratings for MTV's "Jersey Shore," US ad sales rose 10 percent. "Jersey Shore" has posted record ratings in its third season, which began last month and ranked No. 1 in the 18-49 age group advertisers most want, beating broadcast networks, MTV said last week. On Jan. 25 MTV ordered a fourth season.

Despite the cable ad growth, Viacom still lagged it peers. Time Warner's global cable ad sales grew 21 percent, while News Corp.'s grew 12 percent in the same period. News Corp. also owns The Post.

"Some of our competitors had the benefit of some pretty strong sports programming in that quarter," Viacom COO Tom Dooley said in response to questions about its performance relative to rivals.

Net income fell to $610 million, or $1 a share, from $694 million, or $1.14, a year ago. Revenue fell to $3.83 billion, below analysts' average estimate of $4.08 billion.

Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...#ixzz1D2uxlv00

[Sirius Roadkill]

Exhibit A:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?vid...6844869&play=1

fishsticks, orange soda, lime green jello, time for Wapner

[Sirius Roadkill]

Welp, David Bank is back in the news again . . . no reason for me to provide the link; it's the same old uninformed blather spewing from his orafice.

When you read anything from David Bank, consider the source:

- same guy who said that SAC would ramp ahead of OEM improvement: WRONG

- same guy who tried to characterize Viacom as a comp for Siri: WRONG

- same guy who called Siri "a really expensive stock" when trading at $1.26: WRONG

- same guy who had a $1.00 Price Target when average of peers was $1.41: WRONG

So now what do we read?

Bank wants David Frear to come hold his hand and help him do a connect-the-dots analysis!

Sorry, it doesn't work that way . . . you get paid to analyze. Frear has given you the penetration rate, he's given you the take rate, he's given you the churn rate, he's given you your SAC . . . what the F else do you need??

What? You don't like Frear's SAAR rate?? Doesn't seem to bother any of the other analysts.

If you think Frear is being too conservative . . . here's what you do . . . first you quit whining and grow a pair of balls to match your bloated SAC, then you do a little research and you come up with your own SAAR forecast . . . the same way your peers do. Would that be asking too much.

Then, you just might want to take the time to actually read the transcript of precisely what Mel said about the "Leverage Ratio" and where they intend to take it and how that connects-up with returning capital to shareholders in 2012.

[Sirius Roadkill]

. . . . and one more thing, for years we had to read David Bank touting "the ubiquity of Internet Radio" as a factor in his price target; now he tells us Siri may simply clone a Pandora-like service. No shit Sherlock! You're a little late to the dance buddy . . . people in these forums figured that out a long time ago . . .

now go sharpen your pencil and try again

[sxminvestor]

SRK - any updates on the size of David Bank's SAC ?

[Sirius Roadkill]

SRK - any updates on the size of David Bank's SAC ?

Yes, RBC may soon have to install a handicap ramp so the guy can wheel it up to his office.

He's a strange dude, that's for sure . . . can't figure out what it is with this guy and his unnatural affection for Viacom.

Here's the Nutty Professor himself touting Viacom on CNBC:

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000015453